September 10, 2014 - MDT Pro Tips A.M.
While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Jim Parker, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.
Current Positions
No curent positions
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Today's Working Orders
No working orders
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Stocks...
Nasd 100...sustained price action over 4085 negates yesterday's chart pattern. It will take price action under 4050 to test 3990-4001 Fib support.
Spu's...do not have the same chart pattern as NASDAQ. Price action under 1980 is needed to test 1964-54 support. Most technicians will identify 1966.50-68.50 which is the 50 DMA depending upon which chart you look at.
DAX/Bund...Long Dax/Short Bund hit it's 200 DMA resistance and is trading right around that level.
VIX...13.92 is resistance. Sustained price action and a close over 14.30 is needed for a test of 15.16.
Bonds ...
30 yr. Bonds...138.23 (U)...137.08 (Z) is 50 DMA? support. Pattern sell stops are below 138.18 (U).
Bunds...147.95 is today's support.
I'm looking for the Bunds to rally to 149.85 for a first attempt higher with an eventual 151 tgt.
FX...
AUD/USD...tested it's 200 DMA @ 91.83 yesterday. 91.11 is monthly trend support.
Price recovery by month end over 92.38 is needed to avoid an ORL month.
There is plenty of time for that.
The key right now is to match up a low in the Aussie to sell the Yen or the Euro.
That brings me to the crosses which seem to be the least volatile way to play the straight dollars.
EUR/AUD....this is not so simple. Monday's low was monthly trend support at 138.00 which pretty much lined up with all the dollars having contra trend bounces except the Aussie & Kiwi..
141.73 is weekly mvg avg resistance and the upside pivot
AUD/JPY...put in an ORL day and closed right into intermediate trend support. Recovery over 98.08 is needed for higher.
97.19-24 is mvg avg support. There is room below here for a move to 9631
Commodities...
Natgas... 3.92 was resistance. A retest and a hold @ 3.90, Monday's ORH #, will confirm the pattern for higher prices. A failure at that area and Natty will become the widow maker once again.
General Comments or Valuable Insight
Welcome to the Mid-Week shuffle.
There is lots to take in particularly in light of next week setting up for some volatility with the Scottish vote, a 2 day Fed meeting ending with a Wed statement, and Futures & Options expiration's galore.
Equity patterns look one way going into or at the New York close only to be negated in the last 15 minutes of Index Futures trading. The Futures Indices run the show.
Each instrument and sector are an island unto itself and should be treated as such.
Some are in distinct downtrends like PCLN, and others have done nothing more than a mean reversion, and still look good.
Be patient today and trade instruments only at levels where you can mange risk.
For Medium Term Outlook click here.
?For Glossary of terms and abbreviations click here.