September 14, 2016 - MDT Pro Tips A.M.
MDT AlertWhile the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.
Total Premium collected - $1.95
ASNA Long at $14.20
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ETE Long $14.05
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Short Sept 16th-$19 Call - ($.18)
Long Sept 16th-$19 Call - $.35
P Long $13.38
Total premiums collected - $1.20
Short Sept 23rd-$14 call - $.50
DUST Long $4.50
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Premium collected - $.24
CIEN Long Oct 21-$22 Call - $1.39
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This marked the second day in three days that there was a selling climax.??
Couple this with all the bearish conversation from the pundits and talking heads and I suspect a rally is
just around the corner.
I mentioned that the last selling climax of the magnitude we had on Friday came on August 24, 2015, when it was 41.08. That day was a Monday.
On the prior Friday, which was August 21, 2015, the down to up volume was 17.32.
The market sold off on Tuesday August 25, 2015 and closed 25.60 points to the downside.
Over the next two days, the S & P 50 rallied 120 points.
The interesting aspect of this was that the sell off after the second selling climax on August 24, 2015 was an inside day.
And yesterday was an inside day.
You usually expect an expansion of volatility after an inside day.
I mentioned the lower bands on the 60 minute chart for the S & P 500.
Yesterday, the market sold off to under the lower bands which tells us we should expect another downdraft after a rally.
The lower band is 2,137.74 and the S & P 500 closed at 2,127.02, or about 10 points under the lower band.
Assuming the S & P 500 can close back above the lower band, the rally tends to run to the midband, which is 2,172.96.? That is the level you would want to watch on a rally.
Also, the market is sitting right at the major 2,125 level, which should offer major support.
A break under 2,109.40 and the market should head lower.
Continue to follow the levels.
Here are the key levels for the markets.
VIX:
Major level - 21.88
Minor level - 21.10
Minor level - 19.53
Major level - 18.75
Minor level - 17.96
Minor level - 16.41
Major level - 15.63 **
Minor level - 14.85
Minor level - 13.28 *
Major level - 12.50 *
The VIX got as high as 18.97, before closing at 17.85.
I suspect we say see another test of the 18.75 level. If the VIX turns down from there, expect the market to move up.
The low for the day was 20 cents above the 15.63 level.
To move higher, the VIX will need two closes above 19.53.
The VIX is above the upper band on it's 60 minute chart.? The upper band is 16.52.
S & P 500 Cash Index:?
Major level - 2,250.00
Minor level - 2,234.38
Minor level - 2,203.12
Major level - 2,187.50 **
Minor level - 2,171.88
Minor level - 2,140.62 *
Major level - 2,125.00 *
Minor level - 2,109.38
Minor level - 2,078.12
Major level - 2,062.50
The S & P 500 will need to close back above the lower band, which is 2,131,82, to move higher.
The major 2,125 level should be support.
2,117.20 should be minor support.? And a break under 2,109.40 indicates the market should head lower.
2,148.40 should offer resistance.
Nasd 100 (QQQ):?
Major level - 121.88
Minor level - 120.31
Minor level - 119.53
Major level - 118.75 *
Minor level - 117.97 *
Minor level - 116.41 *
Major level - 115.63
Minor level - 114.84
Minor level - 113.28
Major level - 112.50
Like the S & P 500, the QQQ had an inside day yesterday.? The QQQ closed at 115.29.
Major support is at 112.50.? To move to that level, the QQQ would need two closes under 114.84.
Watch how the QQQ reacts around the 114.84 level.
TLT:?
Major level - 140.63
Minor level - 139.85
Minor level - 138.28 *
Major level - 137.50 *
Minor level - 136.72
Major level - 134.38
Minor level - 133.60
Minor level - 132.03
Major level - 131.25
The TLT closed at 134.05 yesterday.? I would not expect the TLT to break under 132.81.
The minor 133.60 level should offer support.
GLD:
Major level - 131.25
Minor level - 130.46
Minor level - 128.91
Major level - 128.13
Minor level - 127.35
Minor level - 125.78 *
Major level - 125.00 *
Minor level - 124.22
The GLD is holding just above the 125 level.? It closed at 125.75 yesterday.
125 should still offer strong support.? To move lower, the GLD would need to drop under 125.
XLE:
Major level - 75.00
Minor level - 74.22
Minor level - 72.66
Major level - 71.88 *
Minor level - 71.10
Minor level - 69.53 *
Major level - 68.75 *
Minor level - 67.96
Minor level - 66.41
Major level - 65.63
The XLE broke under 68.75 and closed at 68.38.?
67.96 should offer support.? I would not expect the XLE to mover lower than 65.63.
FXY:
Major level: 96.09
Major level:
95.31
Major level: 94.53
Major level: 93.75 **
Major level: 92.97
Major level: 92.19
The FXY gapped lower and closed at 94.07. 93.75 should be major support.?
A break under 93.75 sets up a scenario for a run to 92.97.? Two closes under 93.97 and the FXY could drop to 90 to 91 area.
Apple:
Major levels for Apple are 112.50, 106.25, 100, 93.75, and 87.50.
Apple gapped up yesterday and closed at 107.95. If Apple takes out 108.79, which was yesterday's
high, expect it to head higher.
107.03 should offer minor support, with objective to 109.38.
Watch list:
Bullish Stocks: BIDU, BABA, MA, DXCM, OXY, OSK, SLR, TOT, PTC, CCE, FNSR, NLS
Bearish Stocks:? REGN, AAP, CELG, DIS, COL, SRCL, SIG, RHT, ESRX, RCL, DDS, SBUX, WSM, LEN
?
Be sure to check earnings release dates.
