September 14, 2020 - MDT Pro Tips

While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to a six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three-day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.

BMY Long Oct 9th - $59 Call @ $1.45
BMY Short Oct 9th - $63 Call @ $.30

Last Friday I suggested one new position. It was a debit spread on BMY and I suggested trading the October 9th expiration. The alert suggested you buy an at the money call and sell an out of the money call.

The S & P 500 managed to close slightly higher on Friday. For the day, the S & P closed 1.78 points higher.

The day closed out at 3,340.97.

And the day closed out at 52% of the range of the daily bar. The range for the day was almost exactly the daily average true range, but it was about 60% of the range of the long-range bar from Thursday.

The daily bar formed a doji, which means indecision. The key levels to monitor for today will be the close of 3,340.97 and the high and the low.

The high was 3,368.95 and the low was 3,310.47.

Watch for a violation of either end.

Pre open, the S & P is trading about 32 points higher. This would project to an open around 3,373 or about 4 points above Friday's high.

Watch for support at Friday's high on a pullback. Under this level, watch for support around 3,346.

For the week, the S & P closed 85.99 points lower. The weekly range was only 115.08 points, This was 84% of the weekly average true range, which is now 137 points.

The weekly price bar closed at 26.5% of the range of the weekly bar,

This does suggest that last week's low should be violated before the high. Last week's high was 3,425.55 and the low was 3,310.47.

The resistance level from last week's price bar is around 3,356. Above this level is resistance at the midpoint, which is 3,368. 3,360 is also a weekly level to watch.

Watch the weekly levels on a rally.

There are still some major companies set to report this week.

CBRL reports tomorrow before the close. And FDX reports tomorrow after the close, along with ADBE.

Here are the Key Levels for the Markets:

$VIX:

Minor level: 32.03
Major level: 31.25
Minor level: 30.47
Minor level: 28.91
Major level: 28.13
Minor level: 27.35 **
Minor level: 25.78
Major level: 25.00
Minor level: 24.22
Minor level: 22.66
Major level: 21.88
Minor level: 21.10

The VIX closed at 26.87. For the day, the VIX closed 2.84 points lower.

The VIX not only took out the 28.13level, it managed to close under the minor 27.35 level.

A close today under 27.35 and the VIX should drop to 25.

The VIX is now testing the midband on the daily chart. That level is 25.72. This should be support, and a key level to watch at the moment.

If the VIX holds at the midband, it should bounce which would suggest the market would reverse lower.

A break under the midband and the market should continue higher.

Technical resistance is right around 30.

S & P 500:

Major level: 3,593.60 <
Minor level: 3,554.55
Minor level: 3,476.45
Major level: 3,437.40
Minor level: 3,398.35 **
Minor level: 3,320.25
Major level: 3,281.20 <
Minor level: 3,242.15
Minor level: 3,164.00
Major level: 3,125.00
Minor level: 3,085.95
Minor level: 3,007.85
Major level: 2,968.80

The S & P closed at 3,340.97. The 3,398.35 level should be resistance.

And minor support is at 3,360. The market should open above this level, so watch for support on a pullback.

3,369 is also the midband on the 60 minute chart. Watch this level on a follow-through this morning. It is resistance, until it is cleared.

QQQ:

Minor level: 298.44
Minor level: 295.31
Major level: 293.75
Minor level: 292.19
Minor level: 289.06
Major level: 287.50
Minor level: 285.94
Minor level: 282.81
Major level: 281.25
Minor level: 279.69
Minor level: 276.56
Major level: 275.00
Minor level: 273.44
Minor level: 270.31 **
Major level: 268.75
Minor level: 267.19

The QQQ closed at 270.45. The QQQ closed 1.89 points lower.

If the QQQ can close above 270.31 today, it should head up to 275. 270.31 should be support.

275 also happens to be the midband on the 60 minute chart. So, watch this level.

280 is a resistance area.

IWM:

Major level: 162.50
Minor level: 160.94
Minor level: 157.81
Major level: 156.25
Minor level: 154.70
Minor level: 151.56 **
Major level: 150.00 HIT
Minor level: 148.44
Minor level: 145.31
Major level: 143.75
Minor level: 142.19
Minor level: 139.06
Major level: 137.50
Minor level: 135.94

The IWM closed at 149.15, closing 1.00 lower. The IWM should open above the 150 level. And I would expect support at that level on a pullback.

153 is the midband on the 60 minute chart and the IWM is just under it. It will need to clear this level to head higher.

147 is the midband on the daily chart and should be support.

TLT:

Major level: 171.88
Minor level: 171.10
Minor level: 169.53
Major level: 168.75
Minor level: 167.97
Minor level: 166.41
Major level: 165.63
Minor level: 164.85
Minor level: 163.28 **
Major level: 162.50 <
Minor level: 161.72
Minor level: 160.16
Major level: 159.38

The TLT closed at 164.48, closing .35 higher. The objective for the TLT should be to the 165.63 level. But, it needs to clear the minor 164.5 level.

Technical resistance is still around 166. And also around 165. Watch this area.

Short term charts remain bearish.

GLD:

Major level: 190.63
Minor level: 189.85
Minor level: 188.28
Major level: 187.50
Minor level: 186.72
Minor level: 185.16
Major level: 184.38
Minor level: 183.60 **
Minor level: 182.03
Major level: 181.25
Minor level: 180.47
Minor level: 178.91
Major level: 175.00

The GLD closed at 182.45. The GLD closed .01 lower on the day.

Watch the 183.60 level. A close today under this level and the GLD should drop to 181.25. And at this point, I would expect a test of 181.

Short term momentum has turned bearish. The technical resistance level is 184.

XLE:

Minor level: 41.41
Major level: 40.63
Minor level: 39.83
Minor level: 38.28
Major level: 37.50
Minor level: 36.72
Minor level: 35.15
Major level: 34.37
Minor level: 33.59
Minor level: 32.03 **
Major level: 31.25
Minor level: 30.47
Minor level: 28.90
Major level: 28.12

The XLE closed at 32.62. Watch the minor 33.59 level again. If the XLE can hold this level, it should make a push higher.

Short term the XLE is oversold. It is under the lower band on the 60 minute chart, which is now 32.62. And the XLE closed right on this level.

Looking for a bounce.

AAPL:

Major level: 150.00
Minor level: 146.88
Minor level: 140.63
Major level: 137.50
Minor level: 134.38
Minor level: 128.13
Major level: 125.00
Minor level: 121.88
Minor level: 115.63 **
Major level: 112.50 <
Minor level: 109.13

Apple closed at 112.00. Apple closed 1.49 lower. Watch to see if Apple can hold the 112.50 level.

Also, Apple closed under the upper band on the daily chart. That price level is 125 and should now be resistance.

113.66 is the midband on the 60 minute chart and Apple is trading right under it. If it can clear the midband, I would expect a retest of the upper band on the daily chart.

WATCH LIST:

Bullish Stocks: RH, ALGN, FDX, MCD, DE, CAT, BYND, NKE, GH, PGR, CSX, IRBT, DKS, RDFN, VSLR, SFIX, UBER, DAR

Bearish Stocks: LMT, BDX, FLT, MLM, BA, AMP, HSY, GD, KEYS, BAX, LDOS, MAN, EFA, LAMR, CRUS BLUE