September 26, 2014 - MDT Pro Tips A.M.
While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Jim Parker, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.
Current Positions
Short 4 EURO ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? 128.76 ??????? 127.55/122
Short 4?USAZ ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?? 137.00
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Today's Working Orders
I left a USAZ stop @ 137.20 on the position sheet.
If you used that stop you're out of the market.
For those of you who did not use the stop I will be putting out a Trade Alert to exit this position before the end of today.
This will be a closing position. Do not execute this order if you've already exited the trade.?
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Stocks...
IWM...ran the monthly ORL stops below 109.86. Sustained price action and a close below this level opens the door to 107.44 ( the qtrly ORL #).
Spu's...1958.50 fills my downside objective for this move. 1973-4 is mvg avg resistance. Price action and a close under 1954 is needed for a dump to the 1890's and a retest of the 200 DMA.
Nasd 100... 3978-80 is the weekly hold #. Yesterday's low was a test of the 50 DMA.
VIX...16.80-17.05 is resistance. Above look for a spike up to 17.50. 1248 is the Jan. high. 14.10 is today's support.
Bonds ...
30 yr. Bonds...price action over 138.05 projects a full point higher. Price action below 137.18 is needed for downside.
Bunds...need to close over 149.31 ( 50 DMA resistance ) for higher. 149.73-77 is the next daily & weekly resistance level. The eventual target for the Bund is a retest close to 151.00.
FX...
EURO...sustained price action over 127.80 is needed for a short covering rally.
Commodities...
OIL... I need to see a close over 93.45 for this to turn up.
Brent...96.60 will be pivotal. This is neutral. Above it remains firm/below it can break a dollar.
Gold...1240.50 is closing qtrly resistance.
General Comments or Valuable Insight
On a day with low volumes, 3 nasty bits of news sent Equities reeling.
The trade is being run by the spreads DAX/BUND & SPU/BOND.
137.29 is where I was looking to sell the Bonds after stopping myself out @ 137.02.
I got sucked into being early on the trade with the big risk on rally Wednesday.
I don't double up, it's not my style, however this is the low risk sell zone and the closing upside pivot.
I'll give this just a little more time this A.M. to exit.
It's not my style to give the Bonds more than 6 or 7 ticks of room on a trade.
This has been a major violation of my trading rules. We'll be out of this trade by the end of the day.
Foreign investors are buying the treasuries as the dollar goes higher giving them nice returns. There was a similar trade in 2009-11 in Aussie treasuries when investors reaped almost a 40% return holding Bonds in Australia form an appreciating Aussie Dollar.
Equity Indices have to hold these levels to have any chance of getting let out of this trade.
Tuesday is qtr end. The best trending trade has been the long side of the dollar which looks to get pressed into qtr end.
For Medium Term Outlook click here.
?For Glossary of terms and abbreviations click here.
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