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Tag Archive for: (AMGN)

Mad Hedge Fund Trader

An Emerging King of Biosimilars

Biotech Letter

Patience is one of the key attributes that long-term investors need to cultivate, but practicing it is challenging. Stock markets are entirely unpredictable, and their ups and downs tend to rattle even the most experienced investors.

However, it’s essential to keep a calm mind and to be confident that the businesses you invest in have the fortitude to overcome even the most challenging economic or market downturn.

The biotechnology industry is an excellent place to search for stocks that can overcome market turmoils and succeed in the long run because the treatments they develop are so crucial to the lives of their clients.

Amgen (AMGN) is a biotech that would make an excellent long-term investment.

This business, which has been a leader in the biotech sector since the 1980s, is among the largest in the world.

Amgen is also a member of the renowned Dow 30 companies, with a focus on oncology, biosimilars, and inflammatory diseases. In the past 10 years, it has established a strong track record and solid revenue growth trajectory.

The company recently released its fourth-quarter results, and they looked a tad flat on the surface. The report disclosed a total revenue growth of only 2%, which could have been caused by the pressures linked to pricing and competition around the company’s top-selling cholesterol-lowering treatment Repatha, migraine drug Aimovig, and immunology medications Otezla and Enbrel.

Still, Amgen continues to be a solid profit-making business, holding an A+ grade in terms of profitability. It sustains considerable pricing power on its treatments under exclusive patents and from its up-and-coming portfolio of biosimilar candidates.

Amgen has maintained a BBB+ rated balance sheet. It also pays a respectable dividend yield of 3.5%, with a well-protected payout ratio of 44%.

The company has also recorded consecutive growth in this aspect for 11 years. Looking at these figures, Amgen has scored primarily As in terms of consistency, growth, dividend, and yield.

Notably, the company’s foray into the biosimilar landscape would make long-term investors of the company quite happy soon.

Its long-awaited biosimilar version of the No. 1 selling drug worldwide, AbbVie’s (ABBV) Humira, has recently been launched to market.

Amgen’s version, called Amgevita, is the leading biosimilar in this market to date. It already has a five-month lead over the next competitor, arming it with a lot of time to establish a more competitive standing.

Beyond this candidate, Amgen has at least six more biosimilars that it plans to launch in the US and across the globe from 2023 until the end of 2030. This timeline would give the company excellent visibility in the long run.

Another potential biosimilar blockbuster is ABP 654, which is a biosimilar of Johnson & Johnson’s (JNJ) top-selling immunology treatment Stelara.

Amgen also has biosimilar versions of Bayer's (BAYG) and Regeneron’s (REGN) eye disorder drug Eylea and AstraZeneca’s (AZN) rare kidney disease treatment Soliris.

Basically, biosimilars are knock-offs for biologic drugs. They cost less because the manufacturers do not spend less in the research, trials, and approval stages. The processes are also shorter and less risky.

Biosimilars provide a way for patients and the whole healthcare system to save billions of dollars, signaling a bright future for this segment. They offer more affordable options to patients, which is an excellent response to the rising prices of medicines.

This means biosimilar development is far less speculative than creating a new drug, as manufacturers only need to replicate the already established results and success of the existing “original” drug.

Moreover, biosimilars bring with them a degree of pricing power. Unlike traditional treatments, no two biosimilars are allowed to carry the same biologic profile and should still undergo a stringent FDA assessment prior to gaining approval.

Overall, Amgen is a good option for long-term investors on the lookout for a quality biotech to add to their portfolios. Thanks to its burgeoning portfolio of potentially top-selling biosimilars, it has long-term solid revenue growth catalysts. These factors make Amgen a compelling buy on the drop.

 

biosimilar

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Mad Hedge Fund Trader

January 24, 2023

Biotech Letter

Mad Hedge Biotech and Healthcare Letter
January 24, 2023
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(A MARKET-BEATING HEALTHCARE STOCK)
(LLY), (ABBV), (AMGN), (BMY), (GILD), (JNJ), (MRK), (PFE), (MRNA)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2023-01-24 14:02:442023-01-24 15:48:27January 24, 2023
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

A Market-Beating Healthcare Stock

Biotech Letter

The previous year was horrible for the stock market, with the S&P 500 dropping in value by roughly 19%, marking its first decline since 2018 and only the second time it sank since the 2008 financial crisis.

It was an even more horrid year for the biotechnology industry, with the flagship SPDR S&P Biotech ETF (XBI) sinking by 26% following its more than 20% decline in 2020—a catastrophic blow for such a promising index which delivered an impressive over 30% gains in 6 of the last 10 years.

Meanwhile, the stock prices in the large-cap pharmaceutical segment generally stayed buoyant. The “Big 8,” in particular—AbbVie (ABBV), Amgen (AMGN), Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY), Eli Lilly (LLY), Gilead Sciences (GILD), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Merck & Co (MRK), and Pfizer (PFE)—reported an average share price gains of roughly 15%.

Among the names in this list, Eli Lilly has become one of the go-to “safe” stocks during these turbulent times.

In contrast to the broader market, the company has performed exceptionally well in the last 12 months, with its share prices climbing by 12% within the timeframe.

One of the critical reasons that propelled Eli Lilly’s performance was the regulatory approval it obtained for Mounjaro, a diabetes treatment, in May 2022. Although this pharma giant has been hailed as the leader in the diabetes care segment for decades, Mounjaro is a game changer.

This newly approved diabetes treatment could blow any competitor out of the water, with peak sales estimated to hit $25 billion.

Besides diabetes, Mounjaro is also under review as a potential obesity treatment, signifying label expansions for this drug.

If this pushes through, then Eli Lilly would become one of the first movers in the diabetes and obesity markets, with only Novo Nordisk (NVO) standing as a realistic challenger. Based on the market size and the lack of competitors, the profit margins for these segments could be likened to those recorded by Pfizer and Moderna (MRNA) for the COVID-19 vaccines.

There are also other promising candidates in Eli Lilly’s portfolio. One is Donanemab, which is a potential treatment for Alzheimer’s disease. According to the company's Phase 3 study, its candidate delivered better results than Biogen’s (BIIB) approved Alzheimer’s treatment, Aduhelm.

Eli Lilly recently sent its atopic dermatitis treatment candidate, Lebrikizumab, for regulatory review in both the US and Europe. This marks another potential blockbuster for the company, with many treatments queued for review and possible approval by the end of 2023.

As for the company’s current portfolio, most of its products still report good results. For instance, sales of its cancer drug Verzenio rose by 84% year over year to record $617.7 million in the third quarter of 2022. Revenue for the diabetes treatment Trulicity climbed 16% year over year to reach $1.9 billion.

Another factor that makes Eli Lilly attractive is its dividend. Over the past five years, the company has doubled its payout. In 2022, the company disclosed a 15% hike to its dividend payouts. This marked the fifth consecutive year Eli Lilly implemented.

In December 2022, Eli Lilly shared its updated guidance for 2023. For 2022, the company projected that its top line would be between $28.5 billion and $29 billion. That represents a modest growth rate. Eli Lilly shareholders can anticipate better performance this year.

For 2023, the company estimates sales to climb to $30.8 billion. While that amount may appear underwhelming, it’s essential to keep in mind that this is a very conservative estimate. Eli Lilly is taking into account several concerns that may affect its growth, such as patent exclusivity losses and a decline in its COVID-19 sales.

Overall, Eli Lilly has proven itself to be a good and solid business that looks in excellent shape to continue delivering market-beating returns.

With a market capitalization of over $350 billion and several candidates in its pipeline, this company has a strong potential to be worth much more in the following years. Also, it’s critical to bear in mind that since 2020, Eli Lilly shares have skyrocketed by 176%, dwarfing the S&P 500’s 20%—a trend I expect to continue. I suggest you buy the dip.

 

eli lilly market

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2023-01-24 14:00:422023-02-01 00:56:04A Market-Beating Healthcare Stock
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

January 17, 2023

Biotech Letter

Mad Hedge Biotech and Healthcare Letter
January 17, 2023
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(COMPROMISE IS THE BEST STRATEGY)
(JNJ), (AMGN), (TAK), (VRTX), (CRSP), (EDIT), (PFE), (CRBU), (SGMO), (LLY), (AXSM)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2023-01-17 19:02:562023-01-17 19:39:57January 17, 2023
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Compromise Is The Best Strategy

Biotech Letter

An optimist looks at bubbles and visualizes champagne, while a pessimist’s mind goes to Alka-Seltzer. The same thing happens with investors.

Some believe that the steep losses suffered by stocks and bonds in 2022 are a much-needed “cleansing,” which would set the stage for renewed partnerships and collaborations along with high returns. Others simply view it as the first chapter in a protracted bear market.

Meanwhile, a handful believes that it’s a combination of both perspectives—especially for the biotechnology industry.

Roughly two years following the decline of biotechnology stocks, several executives from small and midsize organizations finally concede that their share prices might no longer be able to bounce back anytime soon. In fact, some have been fielding panicked calls from execs of fledgling biotech firms, offering to sell their companies at a discount.

The alteration in the medical device and biotechnology landscape only started a few months before the previous year ended.

This is because, before the change in perspective, when the SPDR S&P Biotech exchange-traded fund (XBI) had slid by about 40% from its 2021 peak, many leaders in the biotech sector still believed that their companies could regain momentum.

The primary concern for smaller biotech and medical devices companies, which allocate years to developing and testing products without any commercially approved treatment, is that the continuous decline in their valuations has made it practically impossible to generate new money to fund any of their projects.

Given this scenario, many small and midsize biotechs would go under soon, particularly those with no data strong enough to provide near-term growth catalysts.

This is where Big Pharma names are expected to come in. After all, these large-cap companies offer an alternative option with their non-dilutive sources of funding and ever-growing war chests.

Big companies, though, have been more cautious in cutting big checks for acquisitions. Despite the high expectations last year, we only saw a few massive deals, including Abiomed’s sale to Johnson & Johnson’s (JNJ) for $19 billion and Amgen’s (AMGN) $30 billion agreement with Horizon Therapeutics.

Instead, these Big Pharma companies appear to prefer partnerships and collaborations. In these deals, they give out smaller payments to biotechnology firms to work with them on specific early-stage programs.

This type of investment seems to be a safer bet for big companies because it allows them to make several deals without spending too much. They can even collaborate with competing biotechs to determine which could develop the most effective and cost-efficient solution.

Smaller biotechs benefit from this type of deal as well.

In the pre-pandemic era, the valuations of these companies quickly soared based on the potential of their pipeline candidates. Some share prices would skyrocket with just a hint of positive data. This is no longer the case these days, not only because investors have become more discerning but also more anxious over experimental programs.

So instead of getting acquired, smaller biotechs can choose to strike partnerships with large-cap companies. This is an excellent way to inject some funding into their programs and, hopefully, provide them with revenue streams, especially since Big Pharma companies know how to market new products.

It sounds challenging, but a genuinely promising program could fetch a large sum.

Perhaps the most significant indicator that not all hope is lost comes from Takeda (TAK) when it purchased an experimental treatment undergoing tests as a potential psoriasis medication.

This candidate, developed by a privately held biotechnology firm called Nimbus Therapeutics, was sold for a whopping $4 billion upfront, plus roughly $2 billion more for future milestone payments. And here’s the clincher: Takeda got the experimental drug by a razor-thin margin.

In terms of acquisitions, some larger companies have been open to that route. For instance, AstraZeneca (AZN) shelled out $1.3 billion for CiniCor Pharma, while Ipsen (IPSEY) purchased Albireo Pharma (ALBO) for $1 billion.

While the future for smaller biotechs remains uncertain, several names continue to be in conversations whenever acquisitions are discussed.

There’s Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX), which has long been reported to take interest in acquiring CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) and Editas Medicine (EDIT), with the latter looking more attractive thanks to its cheaper price tag.

Meanwhile, Pfizer (PFE) has been shopping around for a biotech to bolster its gene-editing programs, and so far, Caribou Biosciences (CRBU) and Sangamo Therapeutics (SGMO) are under serious consideration.

With its continuing interest in central nervous system diseases, such as Alzheimer’s and Parkinson’s, Eli Lilly (LLY) has been aggressive in its search for a company to acquire. Among the strongest candidates is Axsome Therapeutics (AXSM).

With this daunting reality setting in, one thing has become absolutely sure: the biotechnology sector has become a buyer’s market for big companies with cash to spare for acquisitions and collaborations.

 

biotech companies

 

biotech companies

 

biotech companies

 

 

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2023-01-17 19:00:552023-01-31 17:57:52Compromise Is The Best Strategy
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

December 13, 2022

Biotech Letter

Mad Hedge Biotech and Healthcare Letter
December 13, 2022
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(A LONGER-TERM INVESTMENT FOR PATIENT BIOTECH HOLDERS)
(AMGN), (HZNP), (JNJ), (SNY), (ABBV)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2022-12-13 17:02:532022-12-13 17:45:19December 13, 2022
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

A Longer-Term Investment for Patient Biotech Holders

Biotech Letter

Amgen (AMGN) announced what could be the biggest M&A deal in the biotechnology world this 2022.

The giant biotech disclosed its deal to acquire Horizon Therapeutics (HZNP) for $27.8 billion in cash, amounting to roughly $116.50 per share which is quite a move for Amgen. Prior to this, Amgen was engaged in an aggressive bidding war against fellow bigwigs Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) and Sanofi (SNY).

While they is a massive company with a market capitalization of $140 billion, shelling out $27.8 billion is still a significant risk.

Aside from that, Horizon is based in Ireland; Irish takeover rules Amgen and its competitors needed to comply with repeated disclosure of its key documents throughout the course of the negotiations.

This begs the question: Why was Horizon so sought-after by some of the biggest names in the biotechnology and healthcare world?

One reason is that all companies, regardless of size, need a blockbuster—and this doesn’t spare Amgen and its peers.

Actually, Amgen has been preparing for patent expirations of some of its top-selling drugs for years. By 2030, the company would be dealing with the threat of a very serious decline in revenue of key products Otezla and Enbrel. When that comes, these two blockbusters would need to battle it out with the slew of generics and biosimilars raring to compete with their market share.

Meanwhile, Enbrel, which is projected to rake in $4.1 billion in revenue in 2022, will face biosimilar competition as early as 2023. Its main and biggest rival, AbbVie’s (ABBV) Humira, will lose patent exclusivity next year. That opens the floodgates for biosimilars and generics, pushing back against Enbrel’s share of the market while attempting to take over Humira’s.

Looking at how much these blockbusters contribute to Amgen, it’s projected that $10 billion or approximately 40% of the company’s revenue could be lost by the end of the decade.

This is where Horizon comes in.

The most crucial among Horizon’s products is Tepezza, which targets a rare condition know as thyroid eye disease. Based on its performance since getting launched in 2020, this drug is estimated to rake in roughly $2 billion in 2022.

Another potential blockbuster from Horizon is Krytexxa, which was developed for uncontrolled gout, and is projected to record $706 million in sales this year.

The third potential blockbuster is Uplinza, which targets an autoimmune disease called neuromyelitis optics spectrum disorder. This product is anticipated to reach $159 million in sales in 2022.

These three could bring in roughly $3.3 billion in revenue for 2023.

Based on the company’s pipeline and portfolio, it can add $2 to $5 billion of new product sales from 2024 to 2030. Needless to say, this would offset the patent cliffs faced by Amgen.

In terms of pipeline, Horizon has several of promising candidates as well. In 2021, the company acquired a biotech named Viela Bio. At that time, the smaller company’s candidates focused on inflammatory diseases and are valued at $3.1 billion.

On top of these, Horizon’s pipeline has candidates targeting rare diseases like myasthenia gravis, lupus, and Sjogren’s Syndrome. With Amgen’s size, experience, and resources, the development of these products would most likely be accelerated.

Originally, Horizon’s strategy was to keep buying clinical-stage treatments from smaller biotechs then pushing them through to commercial approval. Since then, it has transformed into a company that develops its own candidates targeting rare diseases and lucrative markets. Given its portfolio and pipeline, Horizon seamlessly fits with Amgen’s strategy.

Overall, this acquisition is an excellent deal for both companies.

While Amgen shareholders shouldn’t expect any significant increase in dividends any time soon or substantial share buybacks, it’s reasonable to believe that the company is poised for more growth in the coming years.

This makes Amgen a worthwhile buy for longer-term investors who are committed to staying with the company until 2030 or longer.

 

amgen horizon

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2022-12-13 17:00:522022-12-28 19:51:55A Longer-Term Investment for Patient Biotech Holders
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

November 15, 2022

Biotech Letter

Mad Hedge Biotech and Healthcare Letter
November 15, 2022
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(A FAIL-SAFE PASSIVE INCOME BIOTECH)
(AMGN), (AZN)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2022-11-15 14:02:162022-11-15 16:05:36November 15, 2022
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

A Fail-Safe Passive Income Biotech

Biotech Letter

Loading up on high-quality stocks, particularly those that deliver passive income, is an excellent strategy to ride out this bearish market. This all but guarantees a dependable cash flow and offers a way for investors to limit losses.

Obviously, blue chip stocks tend to be among the first businesses to rally after marketwide crashes.

Among the top-tier passive income stocks in the biotechnology and healthcare industry, one of the names that stand out is Amgen (AMGN).

This blue chip biopharmaceutical business prides itself on consistent free cash flow and a solid track record of boosting its dividends on a regular basis.

So far this year, Amgen’s shares have climbed by an impressive 30.6%. This led to the biotech’s stock rising and surpassing its 52-week highs. For a bit of background, the S&P 500 has declined by 20.3% to date, while the Nasdaq Composite has fallen by a disappointing 32.9%.

Clearly, Amgen’s shares are beating the broader market this year.

Moreover, the company is currently trading at $291 per share, breaking through a resistance level set at a high 250s earlier in 2022.

A key reason for Amgen’s ability to defy this challenging bear market is its strategy to focus on the business of developing and selling critical, life-saving treatments.

One of the most exciting drugs in its portfolio is AMG-133, which is a new obesity drug. This is estimated to enter Phase 2 trials by 2023, with shareholders anticipating approval soon since the drug’s latest data showed “impressive efficacy.”

In terms of sales opportunity, AMG-133 can target a lucrative sector. The total market for this drug is estimated to be worth over $10 billion every year. This would translate to a multibillion-dollar revenue stream for Amgen.

Another promising drug in Amgen’s portfolio is asthma medication Tezspire, which it developed with AstraZeneca (AZN). This treatment holds considerable potential, showing off a 300% growth from its first-quarter sales to record $29 million in revenue in the second quarter.

So, even if some products, such as the white blood cell treatment Neulasta, tend to weigh on the company’s top line, Amgen still manages to generate massive free cash flow every quarter and annually.
To illustrate this point, Amgen’s free cash flow in the third quarter of 2022 reached a whopping $2.8 billion. Meanwhile, the company’s sales hit $6.65 billion, beating analysts' expectations, while its earnings per share were at $4.70

What does this imply?

It means Amgen is an ultra-safe passive income investment. The biotech’s substantial free cash flow can easily cover its annual dividend yield of 2.88%.

Since it first started distributing quarterly dividends back in 2011, Amgen has boosted it annually.

The company’s management has been consistent in its commitment to boost the dividend yield, rewarding shareholders with a jaw-dropping 1,257% increase over the last 10 years.

In 2022, Amgen announced a 10% increase in its dividend to reach $1.94 per share. At its current figure, Amgen’s yield is 3.08%. That’s almost double the S&P 500 average dividend yield of 1.82%.

More importantly, Amgen has a slew of new drugs that look incredibly promising. As of the last update, there are 40 candidates queued for Phase 2 and 3 trials.

This is crucial because several existing drugs in its portfolio are anticipated to experience a decline in sales over the following years due to patent exclusivity losses and the entry of more competitors.

All in all, Amgen is proving itself to be quite the recession-proof biotech thanks to its stellar free cash flow and heavily dependable dividend program. Needless to say, it is an excellent stock to own, particularly in a brutal bear market.

 

amgen dividends

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2022-11-15 14:00:132022-12-02 02:22:56A Fail-Safe Passive Income Biotech
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

November 3, 2022

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
November 3, 2022
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(LONG TERM PORTFOLIO UPDATE)
(BMY), (AMGN), (CRSP), (LLY), (EEM), (BABA),
 (GOOGL), (AAPL), (AMZN), (SQ), (TBT), (JNK), (JPM),
 (BAC), (MS), (GS), (FXA), (FXC), (SLV)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2022-11-03 11:04:102022-11-03 12:52:06November 3, 2022
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