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Tag Archive for: (BTC)

Mad Hedge Fund Trader

A Levered Bet on Bitcoin

Bitcoin Letter

Like gold and gold miners, bitcoin miners are also a levered play on the price of bitcoin.

In layman’s terms, when the price of bitcoin goes up, the miners go up more.

The largest scale Bitcoin miner in the US is Marathon Digital Holdings (MARA) and readers should take notice.

The stock is up over 1,100% in the past 365 days as the miner has ridden the elevator up with the price of Bitcoin.

Marathon has legs and doesn’t live in fear of them if you are a believer of Bitcoin like I am.

Deploying resources in this stock has some weight especially after we received a 27% discount when the stock dropped after they announced a $650 million convertible senior notes offering to fund its purchases of additional Bitcoin miners.

Almost as important, they disclosed a Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) subpoena that requested documents related to its data center contracts in Hardin, Montana.

Last year Marathon reorganized itself as a Bitcoin mining company and placed a long-term order for more than 100,000 high-end ASIC miners from Bitmain.

At the end of 2020, Marathon only held 126 Bitcoins. But in March it purchased an additional 4,813 Bitcoins for $150 million at an average price of $31,168.

This brilliant move in hindsight means they are playing with house money now.

Marathon operated 27,280 miners at the end of October, and it expects to expand its fleet to 133,000 miners by mid-2022.

But those miners cost more than $10,000 per unit each, and Marathon expects to remain unprofitable as it takes on more debt to fund those purchases.

Last year, Marathon only generated $4.4 million in revenue and posted a net loss of $10.4 million.

Marathon's $650 million senior convertible debt offering gives a chance for the company to grow out of its loss-making model.

It’s hard to run away from the exorbitant costs to expand its mining fleet, but once the scale is realized, they will be able to focus on earnings growth.

As for the SEC subpoena, it's related to Marathon's deals with Beowulf Energy and other parties to build a data center in Hardin last October.

In particular, the agency is investigating Marathon's issuance of six million shares of restricted common stock to fund those deals and might trigger problems for Marathon, since it relies on Beowulf's lower energy prices to mine Bitcoin at cost-efficient rates.

Even if something were to come from this, I doubt it will be a deal-breaker and maybe even a possible fine.

The silver lining is that Bitcoin must drop significantly for Marathon to become unprofitable.

They are doing everything they can to scale their business as fast as possible.

Taking on more leverage to corner the bitcoin miner supply market is scary for some people but after the pandemic, much of this activity is normalized.

After factoring in energy and hosting costs, the breakeven rate on Bitcoin for Marathon is around $6,500.

Even though the company is levered, they are insulated by their unit economics.

Certainly, it’s expensive to scale in a fragmented market and it’s not a guarantee that energy costs will be advantageous for Marathon for the long term.

As many have read, there are various breakdowns in the global energy market that could reverberate onto Marathon’s balance sheet even if not yet.

The breakeven estimate serves as a reminder of how this is just a numbers game and reducing the cost of energy makes it almost unfair to compete against.

Daily miner revenue is hovering near record highs and Marathon has among the lowest mining costs per coin.

The stock has iron-clad support around $37 and I would be buying MARA stock incrementally all the way down to $37 if we ever get there.

I have a hunch that we will never dip below the low $40s.

 

 

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/bitcoin-mining.png 410 936 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2021-11-18 16:02:152021-11-18 18:58:18A Levered Bet on Bitcoin
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

November 16, 2021

Bitcoin Letter

Mad Hedge Bitcoin Letter
November 16, 2021
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(TRADERS TAKE TAPROOT PROFITS)
(BTC), (ETH)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2021-11-16 13:04:112021-11-16 16:33:32November 16, 2021
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Traders Take Taproot Profits

Bitcoin Letter

Bitcoin (BTC) has rolled out another upgrade called Taproot — the first since 2017.

At a technical level, engineers should be in a celebratory mood because the latest upgrades always make crypto more efficient and with smoother transactions.

At the investor level, this usually serves as a liquidity event in so far as investors buy the digital gold until the upgrade and sell once the upgrade has been announced because we essentially remove the psychology of the anticipation of the new upgrade.

Removing that anticipation makes Bitcoin unattractive in the short-term, but it does no value damage to the long-term narrative.

Taproot’s new tech is coined as Schnorr signatures.

These signatures will mean transacting in Bitcoin has become more secure, efficient, and less expensive.

Most importantly, the upgrade will better enable bitcoin to execute smart contracts on the blockchain.

A critical change from Taproot is the potential for smart contracts.

Smart contracts are digital agreements written in code and stored on the blockchain.

They’re essential in powering decentralized finance, or DeFi, applications and nonfungible tokens, or NFTs.

Compared to Ethereum, Bitcoin has historically been much more limited in accommodating smart contracts.

This will likely lead to more day-to-day applications for bitcoin.

Taprooted Bitcoin will wield better security by enabling multi-signature transactions, or those that involve multiple addresses, to appear as a standard, single transaction.

Multi-signature transactions are often used to enable smart contracts.

As a result, multi-signature transactions will be indistinguishable from simple transactions translating into, meaning greater anonymity.

Schnorr signatures will limit the amount of data required for multi-signature transactions, which are more complicated to process than standard ones.

With less data involved, transactions will become more energy and time-efficient.

Consequently, transactions will be cheaper to process, leading to lower cost of transaction fees.

Taproot will effectively make the digital currency into a better all-around currency and encourage higher adoption rates.

The last major upgrade in 2017, the Lightning Network, helped facilitate much faster and cheaper bitcoin payments than before.

Clearly, the increased Bitcoin volume will take time to materialize, but the positive results from the Lightning Network is one of the main catalysts to higher Bitcoin prices that elevated to north of $60,000.

If developers can keep churning out a major upgrade every 4-5 years, it’s just a matter of time before the currency becomes frictionless, feeless, ubiquitous, and positive for the environment.

At a broader level, Bitcoin is still in the teething stages of its evolution, but it’s safe to say, it’s come a long way since its inception.

Making it more palatable for developers to create apps on will also suck away value and volume from Ether.

On the negative side of the ledger, there are a few potential drawbacks to the upgrade, but they’re minimal in the face of the benefits and only reveal themselves sometimes because Taproot is only partially adopted by network participants (only 54% of Bitcoin nodes enforce Taproot right now, a number which has ticked up in recent days).

The second negative is that it’s not entirely certain how the smart contracts and the functioning for decentralized apps (dApps) will work itself out.

Ethereum is well established on this front, and a few developers have told me that this new upgrade for the dApps and smart contract angle of it, is somewhat misleading.

It will take time to work out the kinks and not all upgrades go without issues.

As we barrel towards the launch of the Metaverse, it’s still a few years out, cryptocurrencies are basically fighting against each other to be the first of the bunch to be adopted as the payment of choice for the Metaverse.

That’s why these upgrades are highly necessary for a de facto digital arms race.

Being able to build apps on top of the crypto leads to what the Metaverse will be about.

Imagine your avatar entering the Metaverse and buying a Metaverse real estate property in Ether or Bitcoin and that transaction goes through instantaneously in real-time and 100% secure.

That is the world we are trending towards, even if we are a long way off now, and many of these developers for Ethereum and Bitcoin are skating towards where they think the puck will be in 5 or 10 years.

I believe we will hold the $58,000 support level after this dip, and we will take a run past the new all-time highs.

It’s only a matter of time before we close in on $100,000 even if traders took profits from the Taproot upgrade.

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/btc.png 576 936 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2021-11-16 13:02:092021-11-16 16:33:49Traders Take Taproot Profits
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

November 11, 2021

Bitcoin Letter

Mad Hedge Bitcoin Letter
November 11, 2021
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(BITCOIN HOARDERS AREN’T SELLING)
(BTC), (CPI)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2021-11-11 14:04:072021-11-11 16:02:05November 11, 2021
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Bitcoin Hoarders Aren't Selling

Bitcoin Letter

Bitcoin, lately, is resting and the good thing is it’s not too choppy.

It hit around $69,000 before retracing back to the mid-$60,000 levels and it’s just the sign of things to come.

We are at the tail end of the asset purchase program and many outsiders believe there will be an awkward transition.

That’s probably not the case.

We want it orderly which helps an inherently volatile asset like Bitcoin, and I believe that is what we will get.

The 6.2% CPI number sets the upper limit precedent and if later numbers come in at 4% or 5%, Bitcoin prices will react positively.

As the price of Bitcoin has persistently maintained its north of $60,000 status, the talking heads and diva hedge fund managers have stopped criticizing its existence.

It’s about time.

That is a massive victory and stamp of validation for the fledgling asset.

At a broader level, I believe the Fed is stuck between a rock and a hard place.

Each fork in the road gives Bitcoin a higher price and they know it and the only deal breaker is uncontrollable inflation that will trigger a run on the US dollar.

Conversely, if the Fed prints more money, that’s an unambiguous green light for higher bitcoin prices cut and dry.

The second choice assumes what the Fed has somewhat admitted, inflation is permanently transitory leading to even higher levels of inflation which erodes the faith in the abilities of the Central Bank which will send Bitcoin prices higher as well.

This “liquidity event” has become a buy the rumor and sell the news follow through with Bitcoin prices trailing off.

Many were caught off guard by the strength of the CPI number and even if Bitcoin is lower today, this high inflation data strengthens the case for Bitcoin as a perceived store-of-value asset in the long term.

Sometimes we need to move 1-step backward to go 2-steps forward.

Triggered risk aversion which was accompanied by a strong dollar and weakness across the top cryptos would not have happened with a more moderate inflation number.

The little threads of doubt that inflation would be temporary have been shredded and the market has fully absorbed that a profound paradigm shift in the global economy is underway.

Another knock-on effect is near-term economic growth forecasts are trending towards that of “stagflation” — a period of stagnant demand and high inflation.

There are a lot of moving parts here, and this does move up a wall of worry for investors and retail customers.

It becomes psychologically harder to deploy large sums of capital into an alternative investment, real estate, and other large investments in this precarious environment.

That is why we are still in the $60,000 range and haven’t broken either side of $70,000 or $50,000.

On another positive note, the supply of bitcoin on exchanges continues to dwindle, which could indicate a preference among investors to hold Bitcoin in wallets instead of making their coins available to trade on exchanges.

This dovetails quite accurately with my prognosis that the crypto market is currently in a sit-and-wait mode observing to see how things shake out.

Basically, the crypto hoarders, who own 63% of the total Bitcoin supply, aren’t selling.

This short-term consolidation in the mid-$60,000 could be short-lived as I believe once the market stomachs higher inflationary numbers and strong dollar behavior, we will be barreling right into debt ceiling talks in December triggering another leg up to the Bitcoin story.

At the main street level, retail traders representing the middle class and their case to hold Bitcoin strengthens.

Living costs are up crazy and it's broad-based.

Increases in the indexes for energy, shelter, food, used cars and trucks, and new vehicles are among the larger contributors.

The case has never been stronger for the average Joe to protect themselves by investing in crypto as a bulwark against central bank money printing.

Traders in the market for futures contracts on the Federal Reserve’s key interest rate now see a 38% chance of a rate hike in June 2022, up from 28% prior to the CPI report.

My bet is that an orderly march up in rates will decrease the rate of change in higher rates giving a pathway to higher Bitcoin prices.

Ultimately, this type of news would have meant a 20% selloff if it happened a year ago, the asset has matured so much that it’s taking the stronger dollar reaction in stride.

This is highly bullish for the price of Bitcoin signaling that it’s here to stay.

 

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/bitcoin-activity.png 740 898 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2021-11-11 14:02:032021-11-11 16:03:23Bitcoin Hoarders Aren't Selling
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

November 9, 2021

Bitcoin Letter

Mad Hedge Bitcoin Letter
November 9, 2021
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(THE METAVERSE IS THE ULTIMATE CRYPTO CATALYST)
(BTC), (ETH)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2021-11-09 15:04:012021-11-09 17:29:26November 9, 2021
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

The Metaverse is the Ultimate Crypto Catalyst

Bitcoin Letter

Lately, the chatter of the “metaverse” has run riot even some coining it as the “Internet 3.0.”

Partaking in this upgrade of the internet are ostensibly the prodigious firms of the West Coast which many of you already know.

Many of those stalwarts have nothing to do with crypto, but I must bring them up because there is an uncanny correlation between the future project of the metaverse that intersects with the fortunes of crypto.

The metaverse will deliver an augmented reality experience that is habitually billed as an experience exceeding physical reality.

In this realm, digital borders most likely won’t exist.

It will be absent of free-flowing US dollars and be replaced by a currency that doesn’t pertain to a sovereign nation.

A digital currency must embed in a way that facilitates the smooth functioning of the metaverse and it is highly likely that currency will be a cryptocurrency or various types of cryptocurrencies.

The rules of the realm aren’t written up yet, but I firmly visualize a deep intersection between cryptocurrencies and the business of the metaverse.

For example, instead of visiting the official NFL website and clicking on their official shop, I’ll be able to walk over to a 3D NFL shop in the metaverse and view the apparel myself then pay directly in crypto.

The goods will then be shipped to my physical address in the real world. No more flipping up a mobile or computer screen and entering www dot blah blah blah.

Another transformative issue, if you believed that personal data and the protection of it was a do or die issue now, then wait until the metaverse exists and we are represented in avatar form inside of it.

Virtual reality has gotten miles better in the last 10 years and it's all part and parcel of priming this technology to insert it into the metaverse.

For information to be secure and decentralized, we will need to harness the power of blockchain technology which cryptocurrencies run on.

Blockchain is a system of recording information in a way that makes it difficult or impossible to change, hack, or cheat the system. A blockchain is essentially a digital ledger of transactions that is duplicated and distributed across the entire network of computer systems on the blockchain.

There is no protection of personal or financial data on a virtual reality platform if there is no blockchain technology.

Engaging with other people in a virtual environment is going to open a can of worms and expose people to hackers and it’s the developer’s responsibility to create a secure environment.

People will not partake if it’s the status quo of modern-day data breaches and minimal punitive fines followed up by little legislation to prevent this from occurring again.

Blockchain enables not only instantaneously confirmed information but also enables these transactions to be cryptographically secured and protected.

Compared to the future of money, our antiquated system of wire transfers, paper checks, and “know your customer” forms seem idiotic when we have the technology for so much more.

Crypto transactions are the panacea to all these questions.

Even with price volatility that has been engulfed by bitcoin and other decentralized cryptocurrencies, the rise of stable coins and central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) means that the ability to conduct transactions via crypto has never been simpler.

I can easily envision some sort of metaverse stable coin partially pegged to a basket of fiat currencies.

Clearly, technology and cryptocurrency are at a fork in the road where major Silicon Valleys are going to move mountains to make this work as they see fit.

Moving mountains means pouring gobs of capital into improving the technology of cryptocurrency and the ecosystem that integrates with it.

The investments coincide with major capital earmarked for metaverse structural development with several companies spending $5 billion per year.

As we receive each incremental upgrade from Ethereum, Bitcoin, and the other alternative coins, it’s literally a fight to the top to see who will be the fittest to first deploy itself into the metaverse and carve out a massive role in the future of the digital money.

If you believe that these headliner cryptocurrencies are part of the metaverse formula, they are highly likely to appreciate 10X by the time the metaverse is ready to rock and roll.

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/metaverse-experience.png 444 978 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2021-11-09 15:02:182021-11-09 17:30:59The Metaverse is the Ultimate Crypto Catalyst
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

November 2, 2021

Bitcoin Letter

Mad Hedge Bitcoin Letter
November 2, 2021
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(ISSUANCE CONSTRAINTS ELEVATE ETHER)
(BTC), (ETH)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2021-11-02 15:04:322021-11-02 15:39:16November 2, 2021
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Issuance Constraints Elevate Ether

Bitcoin Letter

We are at the point where sure Bitcoin will go higher and I fully expect it to be close to $100,000 next year, but Ether will outgain Bitcoin by percentage points.

And it’s no shocker that Ethereum (ETH) has already climbed above $4,000 for the 3rd time this year.

Talk about a 2-foot putt.

In the last five months, the supply of ETH has shrunk meaningfully from 22 million tokens to 18 million today.

Dwindling supply intersected with higher demand means higher prices no matter what asset you’re talking about.

The tape shows that retail and institutional money piling into ETH in the last few months means fewer sellers looking for short-term smash and grab type of profits.

I do believe this is a legitimate reason why we are seeing the volatility of crypto settling down the last month as nobody is willing to take profits when they know more profits are on the table for next year.

In total, the Ethereum network has seen its first consecutive week of negative supply issuance as frothy markets drive persistently high transaction fees.

The London upgrade introduced a burn mechanism into Ethereum’s fee market in early August, meaning a small quantity of Ether (ETH) has since been destroyed with every transaction executed on the network.

The Ethereum London Hard Fork upgrade is a set of five improvement proposals.

Unlike Bitcoin, there is no limit to mining Ether coins, which makes it an inflationary cryptocurrency which is why development understood installing a deflationary mechanism would do wonders for the price of ETH.  

Miners are paid new coins for validating each block of information. They are compensated with transaction fees that are paid by users.

One of the biggest benefits of the London upgrade is that it has enabled the Ethereum network to handle a higher transaction load per second. It will help with scalability and tackle the high transaction fees — one of the biggest complaints of small investors or those who make frequent transactions.

Since the London upgrade, more than 724,400 ETH worth $3.1 billion has been permanently destroyed.

Truth be told, ETH has not experienced lower transaction fees, or gas price.

Yet, the upgrade has not increased gas prices but has made them more predictable and stable.

This has led to a smoother network overall during peak hours.

Transaction volumes are 400% higher since the same period last year and Ethereum needs to handle the higher workload to legitimize itself into a solid cryptocurrency.

The inability to function properly as a network could cause a massive sell-off that would spill into more mature Bitcoin.

ETH simply won’t be attractive relative to other crypto if they can’t put a lid on transaction costs.

The reason equities are so attractive is not only because they are fully insured by the federal government, but because liquidity and costs are minimal.

Thwarting this underlying issue of a bloated supply, six times larger than Bitcoin's, should act as a major catalyst in awakening the price action of ETH and that’s what we are currently seeing.

In total, there's been a 57% reduction in cumulative ETH issuance to date and it’s hard for me to envision a scenario in which ETH is not over $8,000 per unit next year.

Generally speaking, after the transition to proof of stake, the supply of ETH will decline 2% annually.

The scarcity value that will hit next year will easily cause the asset to double quickly.

I predict a rapid run-up in ETH prices leading up to the December debt ceiling triggering new all-time highs in BTC and ETH.

Jump on the bandwagon while it’s still rolling!

 

 

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/ETH-CHART.png 744 1420 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2021-11-02 15:02:272021-11-02 15:38:34Issuance Constraints Elevate Ether
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

October 28, 2021

Bitcoin Letter

Mad Hedge Bitcoin Letter
October 28, 2021
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(SHIBA INU COIN)
(BTC), (SHIB), (ETH), (DOGE)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2021-10-28 14:04:182021-10-28 15:29:41October 28, 2021
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