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Tag Archive for: (PFE)

april@madhedgefundtrader.com

Innovation Over Expiration

Biotech Letter

In the current investment landscape, with the nearly 5% annualized yield from the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond casting a formidable shadow, making a case for investing in stocks might seem like an uphill battle. Especially so when one considers the sluggish performance of several stocks over the past two years, excluding those in niches like artificial intelligence and weight loss.

Yet, history teaches us a vital lesson: high-quality dividend stocks, especially in the biotech sector, tend to outpace most other asset classes in the long run. While the broader market has seen fluctuations and shifts towards safer options like CDs, dividend magnates in the biotech space, like AbbVie (ABBV), command attention for value and income investors.

Ever since its spin-off from Abbott Laboratories in 2013, AbbVie has carved a niche for itself. The sheer numbers are a testament to this: an eye-catching 270% growth in its dividend payouts over the last decade.

This performance positions it with a current yield of 3.99%, making it one of the most attractive propositions within the biopharma dividend landscape.

Further sweetening the pot is its moderate cash payout ratio of 42%, indicating a strong potential for more generous dividend increases in the foreseeable future.

Still, as with any investment, it's paramount to factor in the challenges ahead. AbbVie's journey with Humira, the anti-inflammatory drug, serves as a case in point.

Commanding a price tag of $50,000 annually, Humira wasn't just another drug in the market; it was a pharmaceutical marvel that earned the accolade of being the highest-grossing drug in history. But the winds of change are inevitable.

AbbVie's U.S. patent protection for Humira has expired, signaling an era where the company has to look beyond this blockbuster drug for its revenue streams.

The spotlight now is on Skyrizi and Rinvoq, AbbVie's next-gen immunology therapies. These drugs have shown commendable performance since their introduction to the market. However, the looming question is whether they can step into Humira's colossal shoes.

While some analysts remain skeptical about Skyrizi and Rinvoq matching up to Humira's performance benchmarks before 2030, AbbVie's internal projections are more bullish, eyeing a turnaround by 2025.

But amidst these contrasting forecasts, there's a silver lining that both skeptics and optimists agree upon: buoyed by its robust cash flows, AbbVie is expected to sustain, if not enhance, its dividends for at least the next decade.

Pivoting slightly and shining a light on its innovative pursuits, AbbVie unveiled promising results for Rinvoq in a mid-stage trial for vitiligo treatment.

For the uninitiated, vitiligo is a condition where individuals experience a loss of skin pigment, affecting varied parts of the body. The potential market for vitiligo treatments is substantial, with current valuations at $410.5 million, projected to burgeon to $625.8 million by 2031.

The increasing number of vitiligo cases globally plays a significant role in this growth trajectory. To put things in perspective, the Global Vitiligo Foundation in 2021 estimated that nearly 70 million people worldwide are affected by this condition, with a sizable fraction being children.

Navigating this emerging and competitive landscape is no small feat. Powerhouses like Astellas Pharma (ALPMY), Pfizer (PFE), and Baxter (BAX) are just a few of the giants that dot this arena. Every move by AbbVie, especially its endeavors with Rinvoq, is more than just corporate strategy; it's a tango in a fiercely competitive ballroom.

Now, coming full circle to the heart of the matter: What does this all mean for an investor with a keen eye on biotech dividends? AbbVie's journey is both a testament to its past prowess and an indicative nod to its future trajectory. While Humira's glory days might be seeing a horizon, the dawn of Skyrizi and Rinvoq offers a fresh chapter filled with both risks and rewards.

For those already holding AbbVie stocks, the prudent strategy might be a blend of patience and perseverance, enjoying the dividends while staying attuned to the market's pulse. Investments, after all, are as much about the art of patience as they are about the science of numbers. Today's challenges could well be the stepping stones to tomorrow's successes. I suggest you wait for a better entry point and buy the dip.

 

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april@madhedgefundtrader.com

October 19, 2023

Biotech Letter

Mad Hedge Biotech and Healthcare Letter
October 19, 2023
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(THE UNSUNG HERO OF PHARMA DISTRIBUTION)

(MCK), (CI), (UNH), (PFE), (MRK), (LLY), (NVO), (CAH), (COR)

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april@madhedgefundtrader.com

The Unsung Hero Of Pharma Distribution

Biotech Letter

McKesson (MCK) is the silent behemoth of the U.S. corporate world that's likely slipped under your radar. As the ninth-largest U.S. company by revenue, it doesn’t grab the headlines like some of its pharmaceutical peers. However, with a robust 22% stock gain this year alone, investors might want to sharpen their focus on this quiet achiever.

Now, you might mistake McKesson for a pharmacy benefit manager like Cigna Group's (CI) Express Scripts or UnitedHealth Group’s (UNH) OptumRx. But it doesn't stand shoulder-to-shoulder with pharmaceutical giants such as Pfizer (PFE) or Merck (MRK). Instead, its pivotal role ensures that prescription medications, consumed by a large fraction of Americans, reach their intended destinations.

Their operational model cuts through the noise: acquire medications from manufacturers and deliver them seamlessly to pharmacies. This spans local establishments and major national chains, including stalwarts like Walmart (WMT) and CVS Health (CVS).

Distributing medications is intricate. Not any logistics company can step up to the plate. These drugs, strictly governed by regulations, demand precision in handling and transit. Specific conditions are mandatory to retain their efficacy and, ultimately, their trust with consumers.

Newcomers in the pharmaceutical space, such as Ely Lilly’s (LLY) Mounjaro and Novo Nordisk’s (NVO) Ozempic, are set to further accelerate McKesson's growth trajectory. McKesson's operations, in tandem with Cardinal Health (CAH) and Cencora (COR)—the former AmerisourceBergen—underscore the dominance of this trio in the industry.

Given their consistent performance and notable market share, there's no mistaking their leadership. From an investor's lens, their well-established distribution networks translate to attractive returns.

The narrative enveloping McKesson has matured, particularly in the wake of the pandemic. Pre-COVID-19, the air was thick with concerns – potential drug price regulations, whispers about executive remuneration, and the ever-looming shadow of opioid liabilities.

In recent history, McKesson navigated tumultuous waters. They confronted their role in the opioid saga, culminating in a staggering $7.4 billion settlement spanning two decades. Such a settlement, rooted in claims of McKesson's hand in opioid distribution, marked a challenging chapter in the company's journey. But, like all resilient entities, they emerged with lessons and a sharper focus.

Refocusing on its core competency in drug distribution, the future projections for McKesson radiate optimism. Sales are on track for a 10% rise by fiscal 2024, aiming for the $304 billion mark. On the earnings front, a hike of 4.8% is forecasted, reaching $27.20 a share, followed by a notable ascent to 13.4% in fiscal 2025 – a jump to $30.84 a share.

While profit margins have hovered around the 4.8% range over half a decade, the company's cash flow paints a promising picture. With a robust $5 billion cash flow from the previous fiscal year, the announcement of a $6 billion share repurchase plan indicates a stronger, more liquid financial position.

McKesson’s journey, past and present, casts it as a promising investment, both for its operational prowess and its strategic repurchase blueprint. Examining its financial statements reveals a commendable reduction in net debt over the past triennium.

When McKesson is pitted against the likes of Cardinal and Cencora, optimism for its prospects feels natural. Projections indicate a growth rate between 12-14% in the years on the horizon, potentially crowning it as an industry vanguard. Valued at 15.6 times forward earnings, even if it inches above its five-year mean, the stock's appeal remains intact. Given its robust growth metrics, the stock seems a potential bargain, especially when juxtaposed with fellow S&P 500 members.

And there's more in the mix. With McKesson poised to ride the wave of prescription surges, particularly from premium medications like Ozempic, Wegovy, and Mounjaro, revenue streams seem destined for an upward course. A sentiment echoed by industry comrades, Cardinal and Cencora.

To encapsulate, in the expansive tableau of the pharmaceutical sector, where innovation meets timely delivery, McKesson etches its mark. As the healthcare matrix continues its evolution, especially in a world reshaped by a pandemic, the resilience and growth story of McKesson becomes hard to sidestep for the discerning investor. It's high time investors pivot their gaze towards this under-the-radar giant, poised for more milestones.

 

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2023-10-19 13:00:242023-10-19 13:19:49The Unsung Hero Of Pharma Distribution
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

September 19, 2023

Biotech Letter

Mad Hedge Biotech and Healthcare Letter
September 19, 2023
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(A SHOT AT HOPE)

(MRNA), (IMTX), (MRK), (PFE), (BMY), (GH), (ILMN), (NVS), (RHHBY), (BGNE), (AZN)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2023-09-19 14:02:442023-09-19 15:57:28September 19, 2023
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

A Shot at Hope

Biotech Letter

In a quaint Boston lab, as the first rays of dawn broke, a team of scientists, led by Moderna (MRNA), embarked on a mission. Their goal? To craft a solution to one of humanity's most persistent adversaries: cancer.

The grim reality remains that cancer is a leading cause of death in the United States. The statistics are daunting, with over 1.9 million new cases anticipated in 2023 and a projected death toll exceeding 600,000. The financial implications mirror this gravity, with costs expected to soar from $156 billion in 2018 to a staggering $246 billion by 2030.

As the world watched with bated breath, Moderna, already a household name for its COVID-19 vaccine, was silently weaving a narrative that could redefine the future of oncology.

Needless to say, the biotechnology sector, a realm of ceaseless innovation, has been abuzz with Moderna's latest venture. Earlier this month, the biotech announced its agreement with the German drug developer Immatics (IMTX) to develop cancer vaccines and therapies. As part of the deal, Moderna will pay $120 million in cash and will also make additional milestone payments.

This collaboration is not just about the financials; it's a beacon of hope for millions.

The partnership is set to merge Moderna's mRNA technology with Immatics’s T-cell receptor platform, focusing on various therapeutic modalities such as bispecifics, cell therapies, and cancer vaccines. Their combined research aims to leverage mRNA technology for in vivo expression of Immatics's half-life extended TCR bispecifics targeting cancer-specific HLA-presented peptides, among other innovative approaches.

With an upfront investment of $120 million, Moderna has made it clear: they're in it to win it. And the stakes? Potentially life-changing cancer vaccines.

However, this isn’t Moderna’s first foray into the realm of cancer treatments.

Building on the momentum of the technology of its highly potent COVID-19 shots, Moderna announced a partnership with Merck (MRK) earlier this year, combining their efforts to come up with treatments that can drastically reduce the spread of skin cancer. By leveraging Merck's Keytruda with its own innovative vaccine, Moderna has showcased the potential of such collaborations in advancing cancer treatment.

After all, the global community oncology services market is not just growing; it's clearly thriving.

From $47.95 billion in 2022 to a projected $53.79 billion in 2023, the numbers speak for themselves. By 2027, this figure is set to skyrocket to $81.33 billion. Such exponential growth underscores the immense potential and critical importance of advancements in oncology.

Yet, as expected, Moderna isn't the only player on the field.

Giants like Novartis (NVS) and Roche (RHHBY) have also thrown their hats in the ring, collaborating with known international cancer organizations to democratize access to cancer medicines. Among the myriad of promising stocks these days, though, Moderna, China’s BeiGene, Ltd. (BGNE), and the UK’s AstraZeneca PLC (AZN) shine the brightest.

Other notable contributors to the fight against cancer include Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY), Guardant Health (GH), Illumina (ILMN), and Pfizer (PFE). Their diverse portfolios and relentless pursuit of innovation are set to shape the future of oncology.

But as the curtains draw on this narrative, the spotlight remains firmly on Moderna. Their success with the COVID-19 vaccine has already etched their name in the annals of medical history. With their sights now set on cancer vaccines, the world waits with eager anticipation.

In the grand tapestry of medical advancements, Moderna's endeavors in the cancer vaccine domain promise to be a golden thread. Their journey, fraught with challenges and uncertainties, is proof of human resilience and ingenuity. As investors, we're not left standing on the sidelines watching history unfold; we're granted an active role in it.

The potential of Moderna's innovations in oncology beckons a promising horizon. For those looking to make a mark in the annals of medical investments, this biotech offers a gateway to the future of oncology. Act now, and be part of this groundbreaking narrative.

 

 

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2023-09-19 14:00:432023-09-19 15:57:46A Shot at Hope
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

September 14, 2023

Biotech Letter

Mad Hedge Biotech and Healthcare Letter
September 14, 2023
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(A PIGGYBACK RIDE TO THE FUTURE)

(BMY), (NVS), (PFE), (MDT), (ABT), (TMO), (HCA), (UHS), (DGX), (LH)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2023-09-14 09:32:272023-09-14 09:47:50September 14, 2023
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

A Piggyback Ride to the Future

Biotech Letter

As I walked the sterile, fluorescent-lit hallways of a leading biotechnological institute last summer, I overheard snippets of a conversation that immediately piqued my interest: “human-pig kidney,” “game-changer,” and “investor's goldmine.”

We often think of medical advancements in terms of their immediate patient benefits. Yet, in this chance encounter, the talk of the town was how these breakthroughs could cascade into lucrative opportunities in the stock market.

But how close are we to realizing this future?

Imagine a world where organ shortages, a grim reality for over 106,000 hopeful recipients in the U.S., could become a thing of the past. This isn’t a whimsical daydream but a tangible reality we're inching towards.

The mastermind behind this evolution? Kidneys grown inside pig embryos with a human cell composition ranging between 50% to 70%. This meticulous procedure, entailing 1,820 genetically modified pig embryos transplanted into 13 surrogate mothers, brought forth five specimens that met research criteria.

Switching our perspective, from a purely financial lens, the world of biotechnology is ripe with promise. But with the emergence of this organ transplant technology, investors should sit up and pay attention.

Consider giants like Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY), Novartis AG (NVS), and Pfizer Inc. (PFE). Their R&D teams are burning the midnight oil to roll out immunosuppressive drugs, pivotal for post-transplant procedures. Influenced by such groundbreaking endeavors, their stock trajectory could be a sight to behold in 2023.

Transitioning to medical equipment, Medtronic plc (MDT), Abbott Laboratories (ABT), and Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc. (TMO) aren't just names in the medical devices sphere. They represent the zenith of innovation, manufacturing state-of-the-art equipment integral to organ transplant procedures. If this biotechnological marvel scales, they stand at the precipice of unprecedented growth.

Moving onto healthcare, HCA Healthcare, Inc. (HCA) and Universal Health Services, Inc. (UHS) are the custodians of transplant centers. Their potential upswing is directly proportional to the success of human-pig kidney transplantations. And not to be overlooked, Quest Diagnostics Incorporated (DGX) and LabCorp (LH) are at the heart of organ compatibility diagnostics. As this transplant technology forges ahead, they are poised for a meteoric rise as well.

However, a word of caution is due.

While the financial forecasts appear rosy, any discerning investor is well aware of the need to balance enthusiasm with caution. The stock market's volatile nature, coupled with regulatory shifts and unpredictable research outcomes, can be game-changers. It is extremely crucial to keep your finger on the pulse of the sector and maybe even conduct more in-depth research on the potential of each company before making investment decisions.

Also, beyond finance, it would be remiss not to address the elephant in the room. The melding of human cells into pig embryos has raised eyebrows and ethical concerns. With human cells found in the embryos' brains and spinal cords, it prompts uneasy questions about the potential integration into the pigs' cognitive or reproductive systems. How the scientific community and regulators address these concerns will undoubtedly influence both the pace and direction of research, as well as investor sentiment.

Looking back, my chance encounter in that research institute was an omen of the times to come. On the brink of a scientific revolution, we are witnesses to a watershed moment in healthcare. But for the astute observer, it’s not just about saving lives. It's about understanding how such advancements can recalibrate the entire financial landscape.

To encapsulate the mood, let me leave you with this quote from the infamous Marie Curie: "Nothing in life is to be feared; it is only to be understood. Now is the time to understand more so that we may fear less.”

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2023-09-14 09:30:262023-09-14 09:48:21A Piggyback Ride to the Future
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

August 29, 2023

Biotech Letter

Mad Hedge Biotech and Healthcare Letter
August 29, 2023
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(WEIGHTY RETURNS)
(NVO), (LLY), (SNY), (AMGN), (PFE), (AZN)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2023-08-29 16:02:362023-08-29 20:35:49August 29, 2023
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Weighty Returns

Biotech Letter

These days, the narrative around transformative weight-loss drugs just got a little juicier. Here's the lowdown: Heart-failure patients are now giving a nod to Novo Nordisk’s (NVO) Wegovy. But, why?

The intel shows that the overweight community, grappling with heart woes, noticed a stamina uptick and weight drop when on Wegovy. The buzz was so compelling that it got its spotlight moment at the European Society of Cardiology Congress in Amsterdam. Plus, the New England Journal of Medicine gave it some ink.

Dive into the numbers, and you'll find that out of about 530 individuals with hearts not really pulling their weight (pun intended), the Wegovy brigade shed 13% of their body weight. That’s in stark contrast to the 3% that the placebo group managed.

More walking, less heart huffing-puffing - Wegovy users clocked in 17 times more steps on the treadmill and showcased fewer heart hiccups. Oh, and fewer side effects? Check.

Rewinding the tape, GLP-1 drugs initially stepped into the arena as the remedy for Type-2 diabetes. But then, surprise! Novo’s Ozempic and Eli Lilly’s (LLY) Mounjaro became the talk of the town. Not just because they were treating diabetes, but because those popping them shed an eye-catching 15% to 20% of their body weight. That's blockbuster material right there.

Eventually, Novo bagged the FDA's green light first for weight loss with Wegovy, and its demand skyrocketed so much so that medical maestros started prescribing Ozempic and Mounjaro to folks with weight woes. Now, all eyes are on the FDA's next move concerning Lilly’s weight-loss contender.

Now, here’s the kicker. This isn’t Wegovy’s first rodeo in the spotlight. Earlier this month, eyebrows were raised when it was revealed that these new kids on the block, known as GLP-1 agonists, might be the next superhero squad against a gamut of diseases.

Yet, GLP-1 might not just stop at obesity and heart diseases. It can also combat a spectrum of illnesses, including Alzheimer's. As expected, Novo and Lilly are doubling down on this potential, exploring these drugs' impact on liver and kidney diseases. As the benefits of GLP-1s unfold, insurers will probably be queuing up to offer coverage.

Let’s paint a clearer picture in terms of market potential.

Nearly 42% of U.S. adults grapple with obesity. The World Obesity Atlas dropped a bombshell—by 2035, over 4 billion global citizens might be tipping the scales, adding an astronomical $4 trillion in health costs.

The repercussions? Beyond the obvious heart diseases, strokes, and type 2 diabetes, they are also prone to mental health challenges, like depression and anxiety.

The economic ripples? Staggering. A drug that can be the silver bullet for such a widespread health epidemic could be the next Wall Street darling.

The next 10 years will likely see the GLP-1 agonists market touching an annual $86 billion. Yet, these figures might be leaning heavily on diabetes and off-label prescriptions.

With the World Health Organization cautioning about a billion obese and 2 billion overweight individuals by 2030, it's clear—this market is about to get a whole lot bigger.

With promises like these, it's no shocker that investors are tossing their coins into the ring. Both Novo and Lilly have seen their valuations triple, and Lilly's net worth now towers over its peers at a staggering $500 billion, crowning it the globe's pharmaceutical kingpin.

However, it’s wise to remember that it's one thing to climb the mountain and another to stay on the summit. Even in this early stage, competitors have started to emerge, including Amgen (AMGN), Sanofi (SNY), AstraZeneca (AZN), and Pfizer (PFE).

By 2025, the biopharma giants could potentially unveil their very own GLP-1-based wonder drugs for obesity, chipping away a quarter of Novo and Lilly's market dominance by 2032.

In the ever-evolving theater of biopharma, GLP-1 agonists, led by stalwarts like Wegovy, are emerging as the new front-runners. While the rewards seem tantalizingly vast, savvy investors know the pharmaceutical landscape is punctuated with highs and inevitable lows.

And here's a golden nugget: in the dynamic world of stock trading, every dip is an opportunity disguised as a setback. So, if you're seeking a stock market mantra for this burgeoning sector, remember to buy on the ebb, not the crest. It's in these valleys that fortunes are made, setting the stage for robust returns. Dive in wisely.

 

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Mad Hedge Fund Trader

August 22, 2023

Biotech Letter

Mad Hedge Biotech and Healthcare Letter
August 22, 2023
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(A BARGAIN HUNTER'S GUIDE)
(PFE)

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