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Tag Archive for: (SNY)

april@madhedgefundtrader.com

Trace Elements

Biotech Letter

In a corner office somewhere in Cambridge, Massachusetts, a team of scientists is attempting something that sounds like it belongs in a sci-fi novel: they're trying to reprogram the genetic instructions that tell our neurons how to behave.

If they succeed, they might help 97% of people with ALS keep their neurons from self-destructing.

Welcome to Trace Neuroscience, where $101 million in venture capital is betting on what amounts to a molecular spell-check for your nervous system.

You might be wondering, as I did, how one starts a company with the audacious goal of tackling one of medicine's most notorious puzzle boxes.

The answer, it turns out, involves three scientists, working in three different labs, who all stumbled upon the same cellular culprit – a protein called UNC13A - the sort of name that makes you wonder if scientists moonlight as license plate generators.

But to understand why UNC13A has everyone buzzing, we need to talk about ALS itself.

ALS, if you're not familiar with it, is the kind of disease that keeps neurologists up at night. Every year, it claims about 5,000 new victims in the US alone, and we still don't know what causes 90% of cases.

Here's a simple way to envision it – think of your nervous system as a complex metropolitan subway system.

ALS is like having someone systematically shut down every station, one by one, until the entire network grinds to a halt. Despite decades of research and millions in funding, we're still mostly watching helplessly as stations go dark.

Sure, the global market for ALS treatments reached $667.3 million in 2023, but that impressive-sounding number masks an uncomfortable truth: we're still barely keeping the lights on, let alone fixing the underlying problem.

The current FDA-approved medications, Sanofi’s (SNY) Riluzole and Mitsubishi Tanabe Pharma’s (MTZPY) Edaravone (marketed as Radicava), are like trying to stop a flood with a handful of sandbags. They might slow things down a bit, but they're not exactly what you'd call a solution.

So how do you tackle a troublemaker like UNC13A? Enter Trace Neuroscience's bold approach: antisense oligonucleotides, or ASOs for those who don't enjoy tongue twisters.

Think of ASOs as tiny molecular scissors that can edit the body's protein-making instructions with surprising precision - in this case, they're specifically designed to fix how UNC13A behaves when it goes rogue.

The science behind this approach comes from a rather serendipitous confluence of research.

Aaron Gitler at Stanford, Pietro Fratta at University College London, and Michael Ward at the NIH – three scientists who probably should have just gotten a group chat going – independently discovered how certain RNA-processing molecules go haywire in ALS patients.

It's like they each found a different piece of the same puzzle, and when they put them together, the picture suddenly made sense.

And where there's breakthrough science in biotech, money usually follows.

In November 2024, Trace managed to convince some of the biggest names in venture capital – Third Rock Ventures, Atlas Venture, GV (formerly Google Ventures), and RA Capital Management – to part with $101 million.

That's quite a vote of confidence for a company whose main product is still theoretical.

The timing couldn't be more interesting. The ALS treatment market is expected to grow at a rather specific 5.8% per year until 2030, reaching about $1.1 billion.

But in this field, even the success stories come with asterisks.

Take Biogen's (BIIB) Qalsody, which got FDA-approved in May 2024 despite not actually meeting its main trial goals.

It's a rare win in a field where the scoreboard has been mostly zeros, as the rest of the ALS treatment landscape makes painfully clear.

Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS) had to shut down their ALS program with Biogen in May 2024, and Amylyx Pharmaceuticals (AMLX) faced the bitter task of pulling their drug Relyvrio from the market in April 2024, laying off 70% of their staff in the process.

These setbacks illuminate an uncomfortable truth about ALS drug development: the path from lab bench to pharmacy shelf is paved with perfectly logical theories that simply didn't work in real bodies.

The math is brutal - only 6.2% of neurological drugs survive the journey from Phase I to approval. Trace's response to these odds? Assemble a team that's seen enough clinical trial failures to know how to (hopefully) avoid them.

Their CEO, Eric Green, M.D., Ph.D., leads a squad that includes Chief Medical Officer Irina Antonijevic and Chief Operating Officer Megan Baierlein.

They're aiming to start clinical trials by early 2026, which in drug development terms is practically tomorrow.

For investors, timing like this transforms Trace from a scientific curiosity into a near-term catalyst.

Their approach - anchored in genetic evidence and measurable biomarkers - stands out in a field where most companies are still shooting in the dark with better bullets.

The story of Trace Neuroscience reads like molecular medicine's version of going from medieval star-gazing to GPS navigation.

While traditional ALS treatments chase symptoms, Trace is tracking proteins with the precision of an atomic clock.

They've transformed one of medicine's most frustrating puzzles into something remarkably concrete: either their molecular markers will move, or they won't.

In the biotech world, that kind of clarity is worth watching.

 

 

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2024-11-21 12:00:592024-11-21 13:13:38Trace Elements
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

July 16, 2024

Biotech Letter

Mad Hedge Biotech and Healthcare Letter
July 16, 2024
Fiat Lux

 

Featured Trade:

(SMALL GIANTS RISING)

(GMAB), (OPHLY), (VRTX), (INCY), (BIIB), (AHKSY), (ALNY), (ARGX), (BGNE), (MRNA), (NBIX), (BNTX), (IPSEY), (CTLT), (NVO), (LLY), (JNJ), (GILD), (ABBV), (MRK), (SNY), (BMY), (GSK)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2024-07-16 12:02:382024-07-16 12:17:35July 16, 2024
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

Small Giants Rising

Biotech Letter

Remember when David took down Goliath? Well, history's repeating itself in the biotech arena, and this time, David's got deep pockets and a Ph.D.

Since April, I've been watching a trend on the so-called "next-generation" players in biotech and healthcare world. It reminds me of the massive changes I witnessed in Asian markets back in the '70s.

Over the past months, companies like Genmab (GMAB), Ono Pharmaceutical (OPHLY), Vertex (VRTX), Incyte (INCY), Biogen (BIIB), and Asahi Kasei (AHKSY) have been making waves that would impress even the most seasoned surfer. And these next-gen dealmakers aren't just dipping their toes in the M&A pool - they're doing cannonballs.

With cash reserves that would make Scrooge McDuck blush, these companies are overturning industry norms, already joining the prestigious $100 billion market cap club. At this celebration, the champagne flows freely.

So, what’s the play here?

With IPOs cooling down like day-old coffee, companies eyeing public debuts are now ripe targets for acquisition, more tempting than a juicy peach.

This fresh class of biotechs, unphased by the FTC's scrutiny that acts like kryptonite to pharma giants, are acting more like rocket fuel for these agile consolidators.

They slide through regulatory gaps faster than a greased pig at a county fair, grabbing six out of ten biopharma M&A deals in the second quarter alone. They’re not just taking a slice of the pie—they’re rewriting the recipe.

And if we're talking about firepower? These newcomers boast an average of $3.8 billion in pro forma adjusted cash, which isn't just walking-around money — that's "buy a small country" money.

But don't think for a second that this cash is just sitting pretty in their coffers. These upstarts are putting their money where their mouth is.

Take Incyte, for instance. They flexed their financial muscle with a $2 billion buyback in May 2024, sending a clear message to the market: "We're here to play, and we're playing to win."

And that's just the tip of the iceberg. The industry as a whole is lounging on a cool $1.5 trillion. That's enough liquidity to stretch the imagination — perhaps even to purchase a small planet. Mars, anyone? Elon might give us a discount.

But this financial might isn't just about buying power – it's about survival. As I said before, Big Pharma is teetering on a patent cliff that threatens to erode their revenue streams. To stay competitive, they're scrambling to replenish their pipelines, acquiring promising assets and gobbling up innovative technologies with the voracity of Pac-Man on steroids. And it's not just the usual suspects making moves.

This sense of urgency has created a fertile ground for an emerging cohort of aggressive dealmakers. Companies like Alnylam (ALNY), argenx (ARGX), BeiGene (BGNE), Moderna (MRNA), Neurocrine Biosciences (NBIX), BioNTech (BNTX), and Ipsen (IPSEY) are biting off more than the market expected them to chew, and they're coming to the table hungry.

And these companies aren't just nibbling around the edges. They're making bold moves, acquiring cutting-edge biotech firms with promising pipelines. We're talking oncology, epilepsy, kidney diseases, cardiovascular plays –  it's like someone turned a medical textbook into a shopping catalog.

In fact, even the big boys are flexing their muscles.

Novo Holdings (NVO) dropped a jaw-dropping $16.5 billion on Catalent (CTLT). That's not even for a drug - it's for manufacturing. Talk about betting on the picks and shovels in this biotech gold rush.

Eli Lilly (LLY) just plunked down $3.2 billion on Morphic Therapeutic (MORF), betting big on inflammation, immunity, and oncology.

Johnson & Johnson's (JNJ) been on a shopping spree, too, snagging Numab's Yellow Jersey for $1.25 billion and Proteologix for $850 million. Both plays in inflammation and immunity - clearly, they've found their sweet spot.

Biogen's not twiddling its thumbs either, striking a deal with HI-Bio worth up to $1.8 billion.

Not to be outdone, Gilead (GILD) shook hands with CymaBay Therapeutics to the tune of $4.3 billion. Even AbbVie (ABBV), playing it cooler, still dropped a cool $250 million on Celsius.

Meanwhile, Merck's (MRK) set its sights on EyeBio for up to $3 billion, focusing on ophthalmology.

Sanofi (SNY), Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY), GSK (GSK) - they're all in, placing their chips on everything from rare diseases to generics to asthma. Clearly, the Big Pharma giants are also trying to keep up with this shift. 

As the biotech field evolves, watching these underdogs will be like watching history in the making — where today's Davids become tomorrow's Goliaths. I suggest you keep a close eye on the names above. Adding them to your portfolio would mean you’re not just watching the giants rise — you’ll be a part of the story.

 

 

 

 

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april@madhedgefundtrader.com

May 21, 2024

Biotech Letter

Mad Hedge Biotech and Healthcare Letter
May 21, 2024
Fiat Lux

 

Featured Trade:

(THE FAT’S IN THE FIRE)

(RHHBY), (LLY), (NVO), (AMGN), (VKTX), (PFE), (MRK), (SNY), (ABT)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2024-05-21 12:02:412024-05-21 12:22:07May 21, 2024
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

The Fat's In The Fire

Biotech Letter

Well, well, well, look who's decided to crash the obesity-drug party. Roche (RHHBY), the Swiss pharmaceutical giant, has just unveiled some pretty impressive early-stage results for its weight-loss drug, CT-388. And let me tell you, this could be the start of something big.

Now, I know what you're thinking: "Another weight-loss drug? Yawn." But trust me, this is no ordinary contender.

In a small trial, patients who received CT-388 saw an average placebo-adjusted weight loss of 18.8% after just 24 weeks. That's right, 18.8%.

While it's hard to compare trials, experts are saying these numbers might even give Eli Lilly's (LLY) Zepbound, the current king of the market, a run for its money.

Let's take a step back and look at the bigger picture. The obesity drug market has been on fire lately, with everyone going gaga over these miracle pills.

Lilly and Novo Nordisk (NVO) have been dominating the scene with their drugs, Zepbound and Wegovy, but that hasn't stopped a whole host of other companies from trying to get a piece of the pie.

Merck (MRK), Sanofi (SNY), Abbott Labs (ABT), and Eisai have all tried their hand at weight-loss drugs and ultimately thrown in the towel.

More recently, Pfizer's (PFE) daily oral pill, danuglipron, has faced hurdles due to side effects. Amgen's (AMGN) drug, MariTide, is in Phase 2 studies and showing promise. And let's not forget Viking Therapeutics' (VKTX) VK2735, which has earned the nickname "twincretin" for its dual targeting of GLP-1 and GIP receptors.

So, what makes Roche's CT-388 so special?

Well, for starters, it's a GLP-1/GIP receptor agonist, which is similar to Lilly's Zepbound. In the Phase 1 trial, all participants achieved more than 5% weight loss, with 85% losing more than 10%, 70% shedding more than 15%, and a whopping 45% dropping more than 20% of their body weight. That's some serious weight loss.

Of course, there were some side effects, mainly mild to moderate gastrointestinal issues, but hey, that's the price you pay for looking fabulous, right? Roche is also testing CT-388 in patients with Type 2 diabetes, so stay tuned for updates on that front.

Now, I know you're all dying to know how CT-388 stacks up against the competition.

Notably, the drug's data looks strong compared to earlier studies of Zepbound. In fact, CT-388's efficacy results appeared "numerically higher" than Zepbound's.

But let's not get ahead of ourselves. Lilly still has a multi-year lead on Roche, so CT-388 isn't an immediate threat. However, it does suggest that the future of this rapidly growing market is up for grabs.

Now, let's talk about Roche. It’s the world's seventh-largest pharma company by market cap, sitting at around $205 billion. They pulled in $65 billion in revenue in 2023, second only to Johnson & Johnson (JNJ).

But here's the kicker—they've been struggling with growth, and their share price has taken a hit, down more than 25% over the past three years.

Contrast that with Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk. Lilly's share price shot up 290% in three years, and Novo's climbed 226%.

Even though their revenues were less than half of Roche's in 2023, their market caps are sky-high. Why? Because of their blockbuster GLP-1 agonist drugs, Zepbound and Wegovy, which have shown jaw-dropping weight-loss results.

But could CT-388 be the underdog story Roche needs?

With the obesity market estimated to reach a staggering $100 billion by 2030, and over 1 billion people worldwide suffering from obesity, the potential is enormous.

Of course, there's still a long way to go for CT-388. Cross-trial comparisons can be tricky, and Roche's Phase 1 trial was much smaller than Lilly's pivotal study of Zepbound.

Plus, we don't have all the juicy details on patient characteristics, dose titration, and long-term weight loss just yet.

But here's the thing: Roche has scale and infrastructure on its side. It could potentially outmuscle smaller players like Viking and Boehringer Ingelheim.

And if CT-388 can match or even surpass the performance of current and future GLP-1 agonists? Well, let's just say those peak revenue forecasts might be in for a surprise.

So, is Roche the dark horse you should bet on in the obesity-drug race? If you're looking to get in on the action without paying the premium commanded by Lilly and Novo, or taking on the higher risk of smaller players, Roche might just be the ticket.

With promising mid-single-digit revenue growth on the horizon and a strong position in other areas like oncology and autoimmune disorders, Roche could be a smart play for anyone keen on the obesity drug market.

As for me? Well, you know I love an underdog story. And CT-388 might just be the Cinderella story of the year. I suggest you buy the dip.

 

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2024-05-21 12:00:422024-05-21 12:21:44The Fat's In The Fire
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

The Comeback Kid Of Vaccines

Biotech Letter

What a rollercoaster it’s been for Novavax (NVAX). Their latest Q1 2024 earnings were a mixed bag—they beat EPS expectations but missed on revenue. A far cry from when they were the undisputed rising star of the biotech world, their stock soaring a mind-boggling 6000% during the peak pandemic days.

Back then, they were the hotshots, but lately, the big leagues with the right connections had been sweeping opportunities right out from under them.  Until now.

Earlier this week, Novavax’s shares took off like a rocket, even hitting a mind-blowing 175% jump in premarket trading at one point.  That's right – 175%!

Turns out, those Q1 earnings weren't all doom and gloom. Sure, they missed on revenue, but their net loss got chopped in half compared to last year, and revenue still managed to grow by a respectable 16%. This isn't just a rebound; it's a sign that Novavax might just be back in the game.

But let's be real, the main reason behind this stock explosion is their shiny new deal with Sanofi (SNY), a heavyweight in the pharma world. We're talking a cool $1.2 billion. 

Remember, Novavax was once the darling of the biotech scene during the pandemic, their stock soaring a mind-boggling 6000%. But lately, they've struggled to secure the big partnerships needed to really make a splash in the market. This Sanofi deal? It's the lifeline they've been waiting for.

This isn't just any partnership. Sanofi's shelling out a cool $500 million upfront, with another $700 million on the line if certain milestones are met, all for a piece of the Novavax COVID-19 vaccine pie and a chance to collaborate on future projects.

Now, Sanofi isn't exactly known for throwing money around willy-nilly, so this is a major vote of confidence. What's got them so excited?

Novavax's not-so-secret weapon: Matrix-M, a revolutionary adjuvant technology that's got the potential to shake up the vaccine world.

Think of Matrix-M as a personal trainer for your immune system. It doesn't fight the disease itself, but it whips your body's defenses into shape, making them stronger and more effective at fighting off infection.

To understand this better, imagine you're going into a boxing match. The vaccine is the boxer, ready to throw punches at the virus. But Matrix-M is the coach in their corner, giving them the extra training and conditioning they need to deliver a knockout blow.

Novavax isn't just using this personal trainer for their COVID vaccine. They're exploring how to use it to coach our immune systems in fighting all kinds of diseases, even the heavyweights like cancer. It's like having a secret weapon that could revolutionize how we approach health and wellness.

That means Matrix-M technology has the potential to open up a whole new world of treatment options and revenue streams. It's like investing in a gym that's developing a revolutionary new training program – the potential gains could be huge.

Now, this tech isn't a sure thing yet, but Sanofi's backing is a big deal. It's a vote of confidence that screams, "We believe in you, Novavax!" 

And when a pharma giant like Sanofi puts their money where their mouth is, you know they see serious potential in those nanoparticle innovations and adjuvant magic. After all, who better to mass-produce a vaccine than one of the biggest players in the game?

This isn't just about COVID-19, either. This is about building a foundation for a whole new generation of vaccines, the kind that could rewrite the rules of healthcare as we know it. 

Novavax isn't just sitting back and waiting, either. They're already gearing up for Phase III trials of a combo COVID-19-Influenza vaccine and diving headfirst into cutting-edge mucosal vaccine technology and high-density nanoparticles.

And let's not forget the cold, hard cash this deal brings to Novavax. 

With half of Sanofi's investment expected to hit their bank account in just 10 days, Novavax's 2024 financial outlook is looking a lot brighter. They're now projecting revenues between $970 million and $1.17 billion – a serious boost for a company that's seen its share of financial turbulence.

Novavax might have been down for the count, but they're not out of the fight. With Sanofi backing them up, they've got a real shot at becoming a major player in vaccine innovation again.

For investors, this could be a chance to get in on the ground floor of a comeback story that could be the stuff of legend.

 

 

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2024-05-16 12:00:512024-05-16 11:37:40The Comeback Kid Of Vaccines
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

April 4, 2024

Biotech Letter

Mad Hedge Biotech and Healthcare Letter
April 4, 2024
Fiat Lux

 

Featured Trade:

(A HIGH RISK, HIGH REWARD BIOTECH)

(VYGR), (SNY), (ABBV), (NBIX), (NVS), (AZN), (SGMO), (BIIB), (RHHBY), (IONS)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 april@madhedgefundtrader.com https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png april@madhedgefundtrader.com2024-04-04 12:02:172024-04-04 12:29:48April 4, 2024
april@madhedgefundtrader.com

A High Risk, High Reward Biotech

Biotech Letter

Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR) has put investors through the wringer. Since going public in 2015, their chips have swung wildly, from a high-rolling $30 down to a "you've got to be kidding me" $2.50. Why? Well, their early bet on curing neurological diseases hit some snags.

But, things seem to be turning around for them these days. Word on the street is Voyager's new Alzheimer's drug could be a total game-changer. If those clinical trials get the FDA's blessing, their stock could skyrocket from its current $9.30 to $22 a share.

Before anything else, let's take a stroll down memory lane.

Voyager started out with big dreams – using fancy gene therapies to tackle tough brain diseases like Parkinson's and Huntington's.  Sadly, those early programs didn't quite deliver.

But hey, they caught the eye of some big pharma players. Sanofi (SNY) came knocking with a sweet deal – $100 million upfront and promises of up to $745 million if things worked out. Unfortunately, the science wasn't cooperating, and Sanofi bailed in 2019. Ouch.

Not to be discouraged, Voyager hooked another giant, AbbVie (ABBV), with a $1.2 billion deal for Alzheimer's and Parkinson's drugs. But then, more bad luck – their Parkinson's drug stumbled, and their Huntington's disease trials got put on hold. So, AbbVie decided to cut their losses in 2020.  Double ouch.

And while the pandemic may have cured our boredom, it killed investor patience with unproven biotechs. Voyager's stock price cratered, leaving them worth about as much as a used napkin – barely more than their own $500 million cash pile.

But Voyager, bless their stubborn hearts, refused to become a biotech graveyard. 

Despite having zero products actually making money, they have a secret weapon: their TRACER capsid tech. Think of it as a tiny Trojan Horse that can sneak drugs past that blood-brain barrier and deliver them directly to their target. Pretty impressive, right?

This tech, along with Voyager's brainpower, caught the eye of some pharma giants. 

We're talking big names like Neurocrine Biosciences (NBIX), Novartis (NVS), AstraZeneca (AZN), and Sangamo (SGMO). If everything goes according to plan, these partnerships could be worth a whopping $8 billion. Now that's what I call a vote of confidence — or maybe just a collective case of gambling fever.

For Voyager, however, its biggest gamble is on Alzheimer's – and they're going all-in.  Their star player is an antibody that tackles those nasty tau tangles that mess up brain cells.

Here’s a bit of context to understand why treatments for this are crucial.

Tau is like the scaffolding inside your neurons, keeping everything organized. But in Alzheimer's, that tau goes rogue, clumping into nasty tangles. Think of it like a giant hairball clogging up the brain's communication system. These tangles are called neurofibrillary tangles (NFTs) if you want to sound super smart.

This is something that Big Pharma like Biogen (BIIB), AbbVie, and Roche (RHHBY) are trying to target, too. But Voyager claims theirs is a precision weapon, zeroing in on just the bad stuff. If clinical trials prove that, their drug could blow the competition out of the water.

Plus, Voyager's got another trick up their sleeve: a gene therapy that hits the “off” switch on those tau tangles. They've shown it works in animals, and Biogen and Ionis (IONS) are already testing something similar in humans. But Voyager's got the edge – theirs is a one-time shot, so no more of those painful spinal taps.

That’s not all. Voyager is also tinkering with these new virus capsules that can sneak gene therapies straight into brain cells. And get this – they're even working on ways to ditch the viruses altogether and target nerves directly. Pretty cutting-edge stuff.

So, is Voyager a surefire win? Heck no.

Let's be realistic. It's going to be a while before Voyager actually makes money from these drugs. But there'll be exciting news along the way—science proving their ideas work.

Remember, the tricky thing with gene therapies is that everyone's chasing the same dream: how to get these treatments where they need to go quickly, cheaply, and safely.  It's tough to predict who'll crack the code, even for the experts.

What's noteworthy about Voyager is that they keep reeling in those big pharma partners. Sure, the first two deals fizzled out, but not before Voyager pocketed a ton of cash.  That kept them afloat, and now their stock's not such a dumpster fire.

But, let’s face it. Voyager's track record isn't exactly a parade of victories. Progress has been slow, and that's just the way it is in this industry.

If they pull off a miracle cure, they'll be worth billions, maybe tens of billions. Remember when Intellia Therapeutics (INTL) hit that $10 billion mark? That's the kind of payoff we're talkin' about.

Still, Voyager needs to deliver some serious wins, or those partners will vanish again. However, it’s worth considering that when a big player like Novartis, who knows this gene therapy game, partners up... that's gotta mean something, right? Even without results from human trials, it's a sign Voyager might be onto something big.

I know it's hard to justify investing in small biotechs with a losing streak, especially when they're tackling the toughest diseases out there. But after digging into Voyager, I can see its potential.

Worst case scenario? Their drugs flop. But that can happen to any biotech, even those with huge valuations and decades of trying.

As for Voyager, this biotech has been around the block. They've clearly got some promising science, and their stock is cheap.  For me, that's enough to take a small position and see what happens.

 

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april@madhedgefundtrader.com

January 23, 2024

Biotech Letter

Mad Hedge Biotech and Healthcare Letter
January 23, 2024
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(PHARMA'S AI PLAY: A MASTERSTROKE OR MISFIRE?)

(AZN), (ILMN), (NVDA), (SDGR), (EXAI), (SNY), (BAIVF), (SNY), (GOOGL), (PFE), (IBM), (NVS), (BAYR), (RHHBY), (VRTX), (JNJ)

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Pharma's AI Play: A Masterstroke or Misfire?

Biotech Letter

Faced with an aging blockbuster pipeline and a competitive landscape where some of its rivals are sprinting ahead, AstraZeneca (AZN) is making a bold move - doubling down on Artificial Intelligence (AI).

This isn't just about keeping up with the Joneses (or in this case, their industry rivals); it's a calculated gamble with the potential to redefine drug discovery. The million-dollar question is: will this tech-savvy move send its shares soaring or just keep it in the running?

Let's address the elephants in the room of drug development. It's a long and winding road, with more dead ends than a maze in a horror movie. The usual grind? Spend ages finding a glimmer of hope in therapy targets and molecules, only for a paltry 21% to get the regulatory thumbs up after clinical trials.

So, you can bet your bottom dollar that if there’s a technology promising to up those odds and speed things up, companies will be jumping on the bandwagon faster than you can say "biotech boom."

And AstraZeneca? They are fully committing to AI, making significant waves in the field.

Case in point: their recent team-up with Absci, an AI drug discovery outfit. They're talking about developing a cancer-fighting antibody, with a potential payout of up to $247 million in milestone payments. If this pans out, it could be the first of many high-fives between the two.

But AstraZeneca's history with AI extends beyond this collaboration. Last September, they put up to $840 million on the line with Verge Genomics, aiming to tackle neurodegenerative diseases.

Add to that their work with Illumina (ILMN) and Nvidia (NVDA) in 2021 for some supercomputing firepower, and you've got a company that's serious about its AI game. They’ve even got a couple of AI-bred candidates in their pipeline, though it’s hush-hush on how those are faring.

And before you think it’s all about the new kids on the block, AstraZeneca has been rubbing elbows with Schrodinger (SDGR) since before 2020, working on making their biological medicine modeling sharper than a tack.

However, AstraZeneca is far from being the lone ranger in this new frontier.

Exscientia (EXAI) and Sanofi (SNY) are pairing up to take on COPD with an AI-driven approach. Meanwhile, BenevolentAI (BAIVF) played matchmaker between baricitinib and its new role as a COVID-19 treatment contender.

Over at Google’s (GOOGL) DeepMind, they’ve cooked up AlphaFold, an AI program adept at unraveling protein structures – a feat that’s akin to finding a map to hidden treasure in drug design.

And let's not forget the big guns. Pfizer (PFE) has teamed up with IBM’s (IBM) AI and supercomputing prowess, a partnership that’s been pivotal in accelerating the development of COVID-19 treatments like Paxlovid.

Novartis (NVS) is another key player, wielding AI to shave years off its drug development timeline, a strategy that could redefine the pace of pharmaceutical innovation.

Not to be outdone, Roche (RHHBY) is utilizing AI for a spectrum of tasks, from target identification to the virtual screening of molecules, illustrating the technology’s versatility in the drug discovery process.

Bayer (BAYRY) is also making a significant bet on AI to uncover new therapies, focusing on areas like immuno-oncology and cardiovascular diseases, areas with immense potential for groundbreaking treatments.

Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX) and Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) are part of this evolving landscape as well, leveraging AI to enhance various stages of drug development. Their involvement underscores the widespread adoption of AI across different phases of the pharmaceutical process, from initial research to clinical trials.

Now, let’s go back to AstraZeneca. Best-case scenario? They cut their R&D budget, which was a cool $9.8 billion in 2022 while keeping the pedal to the metal on their clinical trials.

Worst case? Their AI bets don't pay off big time. But let's be real, with AI tech moving faster than a New York minute, that's looking less and less likely.

So, should you invest in AstraZeneca stocks right now? Not so fast. Jumping on the AI bandwagon isn't a golden ticket on its own.

Remember, everyone and their mother in big pharma is chasing the same AI dream. For now, it’s a case of watch, wait, and see how this fusion of AI and pharmaceuticals reshapes the landscape of drug discovery and development. Keep your ears to the ground – this is one race you don't want to miss.

 

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