THE CANARY SINGS

(ORCL), (MSFT), (AMZN), (GOOG), (AMD), (NVDA), (PLTR)

I got a call last week from my old buddy Marty, a grizzled tech investor who made a killing on semiconductors back in the Reagan years while I was chasing down yen moves for The Economist in Tokyo. 

He was practically shouting into the phone from his study in Palo Alto, probably pacing in tube socks and a faded Stanford hoodie.

“John, did I miss something? Oracle’s numbers just went nuts. Cloud’s up over 40%, infrastructure’s off the charts. When the hell did Oracle stop being boring?”

I had to laugh. Marty’s been around the block — twice. He still thinks Slack is just a synonym for lazy, but he can smell a market shift before most people even log in.

And he’s right. While the market’s been busy playing geopolitics bingo and doomscrolling the Fed, Oracle (ORCL) just lit a fire under their cloud business. 

Their Q4 numbers weren’t just strong. They were loud enough to wake the ghosts of dot-com past.

We’re talking cloud revenue up more than 40% year-over-year. Cloud Infrastructure, aka the part that makes the real money, is growing north of 70%. 

So what gives?

Turns out, Oracle’s been doing something smart (and you know I don’t say that lightly). They’ve built a MultiCloud strategy that actually works. I know, the name sounds like something cooked up at a marketing retreat in Tahoe. 

But, corny name notwithstanding, they’ve actually figured out how to run Oracle Cloud on top of Amazon’s AWS, Microsoft’s (MSFT) Azure, and Google (GOOG) Cloud.

In other words, they’re selling ice in the desert — to everyone.

As Oracle founder Larry Ellison said on the earnings call, they’ve got 23 MultiCloud datacenters up and running, and they’re building another 47. 

And they’re projecting triple-digit revenue growth in that segment heading into fiscal 2026.

Now, you don’t spend $21 billion on capex unless you’re pretty damn sure there’s a gold rush coming. That’s exactly what Oracle’s doing with their Stargate AI data centers. 

They’re throwing down chips on AI infrastructure, and betting that the next wave of demand will blow past anything we saw with ChatGPT’s debut.

This is not just growth. It’s positioning. 

Oracle’s offering storage and compute at up to 61% less than AWS, with no fees to move your data around. 

That’s like showing up to a steakhouse and offering to undercut the menu by half and throw in dessert. You might not take over the industry, but you’re definitely going to steal some tables.

Let’s zoom out for a second.

Oracle isn’t just a good company. They’ve turned into a signal. A flare in the sky. Maybe even a canary in the coal mine, and right now, that canary’s singing a very bullish tune.

Their growth tells us the second wave of AI is picking up speed. And just like the first wave, it’s coming in stages.

First, the picks-and-shovels: GPU makers. 

AMD (AMD) is the obvious play if you missed the NVIDIA (NVDA) rocket ship. They don’t have Jensen’s software stack, but they don’t need it because demand’s pouring in from every direction.

Next, the cloud providers. Microsoft’s Azure is nibbling at AWS’s heels and gaining share with every quarter. Don’t sleep on them.

Then, the application layer, where Palantir (PLTR) is quietly embedding itself into defense, logistics, health, and anywhere else that needs AI with a badge and a backbone. The stock isn’t cheap, but it never was. It’s a long-game name.

Now, back to Oracle. 

At $215 per share and a $600 billion market cap, you’re not exactly getting in on the ground floor. 

The market’s already assuming 20% revenue CAGR, EBIT margins pushing 34%, and terminal growth that would make most CFOs break into a cold sweat.

Could they do it? Sure. But when I look for trades, I’m hunting asymmetric upside, the kind of thing that doubles or triples before your neighbor finishes reading the footnotes.

Oracle? It’s a great story, but at these levels, it’s like buying a Cadillac with 200,000 miles on the odometer. Still runs great, but the glory days are in the rearview.

So here’s the play: put Oracle in your watchlist. Smart company, smart strategy, but priced like it already won. 

The real value is in what they’re telling us: that AI’s next chapter is being written now, and the money’s going to flow through the ecosystem in waves.

If you missed the first round, don’t worry. This show’s just getting started. And trust me — Marty and I already got our popcorn.