The Upgrade That Wasn't An Upgrade

The Ethereum (ETH) merge was hyped up as some grand event, but its impact has been anti-climactic and anemic.

Originally referred to as Ethereum 2.0, the merge is an upgraded version of the Ethereum blockchain that uses a proof-of-stake consensus mechanism to verify transactions via staking.

I have been asked many questions about this Ethereum merge and the hoopla surrounding it.

I’ve been asked whether the price of Ether would surge on this or not and I’ll give you my hot take.

It would have to take something quite miraculously to change the negative sentiment around the broader crypto narrative and a shift in staking method is not enough.

It’ll most likely be a footnote in the story of Ethereum and it’s done nothing to entice traders to pour money in the asset.

I would say the opposite has occurred and I’ll explain why.

The way it will manufacture Ether coins will change, but that doesn’t mean that solid value is found just because of the change.  

If McDonald’s suddenly switches the shredded cabbage it uses to produce a BigMac, most consumers aren’t going to rush out to buy 1000s of BigMacs for friends and family just because the cabbage is sourced differently.

There’s not much value added unless one is a climate change supporter who will highlight that energy use will decrease by 99.5% in this new form of staking Ether.

Basically, I am saying I would not even call this an “upgrade.”

How about the issues that real Ether buyers and sellers care about?

The merge didn’t fix Ethereum’s high fees or congestion.

Seriously, the developers need to fix this. It shouldn’t cost a fee between $50-$200 to buy into this coin and until something is improved on this front, it will remain less competitive than Bitcoin (BTC).

Laying the groundwork for the future is something that buyers and sellers of Ether simply don’t care about in the short-term and the price action reflects this sentiment.

In fact, I would strongly argue there are more outright negatives than positives that came out of this staking switch.

For example, the change spurred a hard fork, splitting the blockchain in two and giving rise to an offshoot chain called Ethereum PoW.

Some exchanges and platforms have shown support for the forked version, which still uses proof-of-work (PoW) verification, and at least 19 former ether mining pools are active on it.

Another Ether variant, Ethereum Classic has been another main beneficiary of the Merge, as its hash rate has doubled, with other graphics-processing-unit (GPU) compatible PoW blockchains such as Ravencoin and Ergo also witnessing big increases.

Like most products, it’s not smart to cut buyer capacity in half and then ditch the infrastructure behind for others to use.

Ethereum has now divided its product by leaving the old miners nowhere to go which gave way to a fork that now produces multiple types of variant Ether.

These miners followed the other side of the fork because the investment in mining equipment could be easily onboarded onto the forked Ether coins.

The move was idiotic, to say the least.

Another massive concern is Ether has become less decentralized because now just a few parties control the mining.

Wasn’t crypto supposed to nix the centralization aspect of currency which is why crypto enthusiasts hate fiat money?

The Merge is the first of five upgrades planned for the blockchain.

Therefore, dropping proof of work has uplifted the competition around them which is another terrible strategic decision.

This is survival of the fittest and turning your back on critical infrastructure that now is servicing infrastructure for another rival coin is outrageous.

All told, the Ethereum merge created more problems than solutions and at the end of the day, traders could care less that there is less energy used to mine Ethereum.

In fact, Ethereum miners are just using their equipment to mine other coins leading me to say that no energy savings were accrued in crypto whatsoever.

Either way, macro forces are still the leading driver of crypto prices as we lurch from one crisis to the next and we are still in the middle of crypto winter.

I am bearish Ether in the short term.