Too Rich To Fail, Too Expensive To Succeed

Last weekend, while organizing my home office, I stumbled across an old COVID vaccination card. Remember those? It got me thinking about Moderna (MRNA), the biotech darling that went from relatively unknown to household name faster than you can say "messenger RNA."

Now, in early 2025, this once up-and-coming company is already facing what my grandmother would call "champagne problems" - too much cash to be broke, but burning through it faster than a Tesla (TSLA) on Ludicrous mode.

First, let's talk about this biotech's cash burn. In just nine months of 2024, Moderna torched through over $4 billion - that's the same amount they burned in all of 2023, suggesting their cash cremation rate is actually accelerating.

This acceleration in spending wouldn't be as worrying if they had endless reserves, but their current position shows $7 billion in cash and $2 billion in non-current investments.

The math isn't complex: at this burn rate, their runway is shorter than many investors realize.

The recent Health and Human Services (HHS) grant of $176 million in July 2024 for bird flu research barely registers on their financial statements.

While we've seen about 70 bird flu cases in the U.S. with one fatality in an elderly patient with underlying conditions, this isn't going to be another COVID-style revenue stream.

I've analyzed enough pharmaceutical companies to know that betting on another pandemic windfall is like expecting lightning to strike twice in the same spot.

What really interests me is Moderna's position in the competitive landscape. I spent last week analyzing patent data and geographic reach metrics across the industry.

First, you've got the old-guard pharma giants like Novartis (NVS), Sanofi (SNY), and Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), who have been at this game since before mRNA was a gleam in a scientist's eye.

Then, there are companies like BioNTech (BNTX) and Roche (RHHBY) with significantly higher geographic reach, while Replimune Group (REPL) and CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) demonstrate superior application diversity.

In comparison, Moderna's position in this landscape shows relatively low scores on both metrics - not exactly what you want to see from a company burning cash at this rate.

Stéphane Bancel, Moderna's CEO, recently outlined their pipeline: 2 approved medicines, 7 Phase 3 trials, and 45 candidates in development. They're also targeting $1.1 billion in annual R&D cost reductions by 2027.

But here's what keeps bothering me: their SG&A expenses have ballooned to nearly 10 times their pre-COVID levels, yet management is focusing on R&D cuts instead of addressing this administrative bloat.

The insider trading patterns since early 2024 haven't exactly inspired confidence either.

When I see heavy selling from insiders while a company is promising future breakthroughs, I can't help but remember all the biotech stories I've covered where the promise didn't match the reality.

Speaking of promises, Oracle's (ORCL) Larry Ellison recently made headlines talking about 48-hour personalized cancer vaccines using AI and robots.

While the technology sounds promising, I'm more interested in the practical path to profitability. Moderna isn't alone in this race, and their well-capitalized competitors have the luxury of funding similar development programs while maintaining positive cash flow.

Given Moderna's cash burn trajectory, their next three quarters will be telling.

I'll be watching that $4 billion nine-month burn rate closely, along with their progress on cost reductions - particularly those inflated SG&A expenses that management seems reluctant to address.

I'm keeping my old vaccination card as a reminder of Moderna's impressive COVID-19 achievement, but I'm not ready to bet on lightning striking twice.

Sometimes the hardest part of investing is knowing when to appreciate history without banking on its repeat performance.