• support@madhedgefundtrader.com
  • Member Login
Mad Hedge Fund Trader
  • Home
  • About
  • Store
  • Luncheons
  • Testimonials
  • Contact Us
  • Click to open the search input field Click to open the search input field Search
  • Menu Menu

Trade Alert - (FXY) EXPIRATION March 21, 2016

Trade Alert

As a potentially profitable opportunity presents itself, John will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what should be bought, when to buy it, and at what price. This is your chance to ?look over? John Thomas? shoulder as he gives you unparalleled insight on major world financial trends BEFORE they happen.

Alert

Trade Alert - (FXY) - EXPIRATION

Expiration of the Currency Shares Japanese Yen Trust (FXY) March, 2016 $89-$92 in-the-money vertical bear put spread

Closing Trade ? Not for new subscribers

3-21-2016

Expiration date: March 18, 2016

Portfolio weighting: 10%

Number of Contracts: 38

Our position in the Currency Shares Japanese Yen Trust (FXY) March, 2016 $89-$92 in-the-money vertical bear put spread expired over the weekend at it's maximum potential profit point.

You earned a 15.4% profit on the trade in only 16 trading days, or $1,540 on 38 contracts. It?s better than a poke in the eye with a sharp stick. Well done!

If you bought the ProShares Ultra Short Yen ETF (YCS) outright, keep it. This is the best entry point in a year. We are only just getting started on the downside for the yen, and the upside for the (YCS).

To remind you why you hated the yen so much you sold it short, here are the fundamentals. I?m sure we?ll be visiting the yen quite a lot in the future.

1) With the world?s structurally weakest major economy, Japan is certain to be the last country to raise interest rates. Interest rate differentials between countries are the single greatest driver of foreign exchange rates. That means the yen is taking the downtown express.

2) This is inciting big hedge funds to borrow yen and sell it to finance longs in every other corner of the financial markets. So ?RISK ON? means more yen selling, a lot.

3) Japan has the world?s worst demographic outlook that assures its problems will only get worse. They?re just not making enough Japanese any more. Countries that are not minting new consumers in large numbers tend to have poor economies and weak currencies.

4) The sovereign debt crisis in Europe is prompting investors to scan the horizon for the next troubled country. With gross debt well over a nosebleed 270% of GDP, or 160% when you net out inter agency crossholdings, Japan is at the top of the list.

5) The Japanese ten-year bond market, with a yield AT AN ABSOLUTELY EYE-POPPING -0.08%, is a disaster waiting to happen. It makes US Treasury bonds look generous by comparison at 1.70%. No yield support here whatsoever.

6) You have two willing co-conspirators in this trade, the Ministry of Finance and the Bank of Japan, who will move Mount Fuji if they must to get the yen down and bail out the country?s beleaguered exporters and revive the economy.

When the big turn inevitably comes, we?re going from the current ?111 to ?125, then ?130, then ?150. That works out to a price of $150 for the (YCS), which last traded at $75.35. But it might take a few years to get there.

If you think this is extreme, let me remind you that when I first went to Japan in the early seventies, the yen was trading at ?305, and had just been revalued from the Peace Treaty Dodge line rate of ?360.

To me the ?111.00 I see on my screen today is unbelievably expensive.

Here are the specific prices you need to close this position:

long 38 March, 2016 (FXY) $92 puts at?????$5.32

short 38 March, 2016 (FXY) $89 puts at..??..?.$2.32
Net Proceeds:????.??????????.....$3.00

Profit at expiration: $3.00 - $2.60 = $0.40

(38 X 100 X $0.40 ) = $1,540 or 15.4% profit on the position.

FXY
YCS
Japanese Girl

Its All Over for the Yen

Share this entry
  • Share on Facebook
  • Share on X
  • Share on WhatsApp
  • Share on Pinterest
  • Share on LinkedIn
  • Share by Mail
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/Alert.jpg 259 294 DougD https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png DougD2016-03-21 09:00:152016-03-21 09:00:15Trade Alert - (FXY) EXPIRATION March 21, 2016

tastytrade, Inc. (“tastytrade”) has entered into a Marketing Agreement with Mad Hedge Fund Trader (“Marketing Agent”) whereby tastytrade pays compensation to Marketing Agent to recommend tastytrade’s brokerage services. The existence of this Marketing Agreement should not be deemed as an endorsement or recommendation of Marketing Agent by tastytrade and/or any of its affiliated companies. Neither tastytrade nor any of its affiliated companies is responsible for the privacy practices of Marketing Agent or this website. tastytrade does not warrant the accuracy or content of the products or services offered by Marketing Agent or this website. Marketing Agent is independent and is not an affiliate of tastytrade. 

Legal Disclaimer

There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. MadHedgeFundTrader.com and all individuals affiliated with this site assume no responsibilities for your trading and investment results. The indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features are for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Information for futures trading observations are obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not warrant its completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the trading observations is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness of the information. You must assess the risk of any trade with your broker and make your own independent decisions regarding any securities mentioned herein. Affiliates of MadHedgeFundTrader.com may have a position or effect transactions in the securities described herein (or options thereon) and/or otherwise employ trading strategies that may be consistent or inconsistent with the provided strategies.

Copyright © 2025. Mad Hedge Fund Trader. All Rights Reserved. support@madhedgefundtrader.com
  • Privacy Policy
  • Disclaimer
  • FAQ
Link to: March 21, 2016 Link to: March 21, 2016 March 21, 2016 Link to: March 21, 2016 - MDT Pro Tips A.M. Link to: March 21, 2016 - MDT Pro Tips A.M. March 21, 2016 - MDT Pro Tips A.M.
Scroll to top