Trade Alert - (TLT) December 11, 2020

When John identifies a strategic exit point, he will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what security to sell, when to sell it, and at what price. Most often, it will be to TAKE PROFITS, but, on rare occasions, it will be to exercise a STOP LOSS at a predetermined price to adhere to strict risk management discipline.

Trade Alert - (TLT) – BUY

BUY the iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond Fund (TLT) January 2021 $164-$167 in-the-money vertical Bear Put spread at $2.50 or best

Opening Trade

12-11-2020

expiration date: January 15, 2020

Portfolio weighting: 10%

Number of Contracts = 40 contracts

Recurring failure of a new stimulus package this week has given us a nice $5 rally in the (TLT) and another good entry point on the short side.

This is despite the U6 unemployment rate stubbornly hugging a Great Depressionary 20 million and thousands of local municipalities on the hovering edge of bankruptcy.

With 2021 expected to be one of the strongest years for economic growth in history, there is no chance you’ll see a major rally in the US Treasury bond market from here.

The (TLT) has just rallied a nice $5 on pandemic fears and interest rates have plunged.

I am therefore buying the iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond Fund (TLT) January 2021 $164-$167 in-the-money vertical Bear Put spread at $2.50 or best.

Don’t pay more than $2.70 or this is really not worth doing.

If you don’t play options, just go out and buy the ProShares Ultra Short Treasury Bond Fund (TBT) outright.

The fundamentals of this trade are very simple. With the national debt already rising from a record $23 trillion to an eye-popping $30 trillion by the end of 2020, the US Treasury demands on the bond market are going to be incredible.

It is almost mathematically impossible for bond prices to rise substantially from here. They can only go sideways at best, or down big in the worst case. Sounds like a great short to me.

This is a bet that the (TLT) will not rise above $164.00 by the January 15 option expiration in 23 trading days. To lose money on this position, ten-year US Treasury yields would have to approach 0.60%.

Here are the specific trades you need to execute this position:

Buy 40 January 2021 (TLT) $167 puts at………….………$9.10

Sell short 40 January 2021 (TLT) $164 puts at…………$6.60

Net Cost:………………………….………..………….........….....$2.50

Potential Profit: $3.00 -$2.50 = $0.50

(40 X 100 X $0.50) = $2,000 or 20.00% in 23 trading days.

The Fat Lady is Singing for the Bond Market

If you are uncertain on how to execute an options spread, please watch my training video by clicking here.

The best execution can be had by placing your bid for the entire spread in the middle market and waiting for the market to come to you. The difference between the bid and the offer on these deep in-the-money spread trades can be enormous.

Don’t execute the legs individually or you will end up losing much of your profit. Spread pricing can be very volatile on expiration months farther out.

Keep in mind that these are ballpark prices at best. After the alerts go out, prices can be all over the map.

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