Trade Alert - (TLT) March 8, 2022 - BUY

When John identifies a strategic exit point, he will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what security to sell, when to sell it, and at what price. Most often, it will be to TAKE PROFITS, but, on rare occasions, it will be to exercise a STOP LOSS at a predetermined price to adhere to strict risk management discipline.

 

Trade Alert - (TLT) – BUY

BUY the iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond Fund (TLT) April 2022 $127-$130 in-the-money vertical Bull Call spread at $2.50 or best

Opening Trade

3-8-2022

expiration date: April 15, 2022

Portfolio weighting: 10%

Number of Contracts = 40 contracts

I think the war in Ukraine has given us a gift, in that it suddenly slows down the rate at which the Fed will raise interest rates.

Instead of free fall, the bond market has just shifted to a tradable $130-$142 range which I am more than happy to take advantage of.

I am therefore willing to BUY the US Treasury bond market with a very deep in-the-money vertical bull call spread with a five-week view. This will help balance out our long/short exposure in our model trading portfolio.

The Fed likely will raise interest rates on March 16 for the first time in five years, but only buy a quarter point instead of the once expected half.

We are certainly headed for a 2.50% yield for the ten-year, but not until mid-year at the earliest.

I am therefore buying the iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond Fund (TLT) April 2022 $127-$130 in-the-money vertical Bull Call spread at $2.50 or best
 
Don’t pay more than $2.75 or you’ll be chasing on a risk/reward basis.

The long-term outlook for fixed income is absolutely awful. The next big rotation in the markets will be for tech and bonds to peak out and for financials to bounce hard off a bottom. This will result from coming major upgrades in economic growth, which analysts and strategists are wildly underestimating.

As soon as everyone gets the parts and labor they want, it is going to be off to the races. Add to that a Fed taper on monetary stimulus and interest rates will soar.

With 2022 expected to be one of the strongest years for economic growth in history, there is no chance you’ll see a major rally in the US Treasury bond market from here. The only question is how fast it will fall.

This trade is basically betting that interest rates will rise in front of the biggest borrowing in human history.

To lose money on this trade, the ten-year US Treasury yield would have to rise to 2.40% in five weeks, which is highly unlikely. You need the yearend to see those numbers.

The fundamentals of this trade are very simple. The national debt rose to an eye-popping $30 trillion in 2021. In 2022, it is expected to explode to $33 trillion.  The US Treasury demands on the bond market are going to be incredible.

This is a bet that the (TLT) will not fall below $130.00 by the April 15 options expiration in 28 trading days. Here are the specific trades you need to execute this position:

Here are the specific trades you need to execute this position:

Buy 40 April 2022 (TLT) $127 calls at………….………$12.00

Sell short 40 April 2022 (TLT) $130 calls at……..……$9.50

Net Cost:………………………….………..…………......….....$2.50

Potential Profit: $3.00 - $2.50 = $0.50

(40 X 100 X $0.50) = $2,000 or 20.00% in 28 trading days.

 

 

 

 

 

The Fat Lady is Singing for the Bond Market

 

If you are uncertain about how to execute an options spread, please watch my training video by clicking here.

The best execution can be had by placing your bid for the entire spread in the middle market and waiting for the market to come to you. The difference between the bid and the offer on these deep in-the-money spread trades can be enormous.

Don’t execute the legs individually or you will end up losing much of your profit. Spread pricing can be very volatile on expiration months farther out.

Keep in mind that these are ballpark prices at best. After the alerts go out, prices can be all over the map.