Trade Alert - (TLT) May 11, 2020

When John identifies a strategic exit point, he will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what security to sell, when to sell it, and at what price. Most often, it will be to TAKE PROFITS, but, on rare occasions, it will be to exercise a STOP LOSS at a predetermined price to adhere to strict risk management discipline.

Trade Alert - (TLT) – BUY

BUY the iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond Fund (TLT) June 2020 $149-$152 in-the-money vertical Bull call spread at $2.50 or best

Opening Trade

5-11-2020

expiration date: June 19, 2020

Portfolio weighting: 10%

Number of Contracts = 40 contracts

We currently have the most aggressive short position in the bond market in the 13-year history of the Mad Hedge Fund Trader. We have already captured an astonishing ten points of the move down in only eight trading days.

The bond market is now oversold in the extreme. A series of Treasury refundings will finish this week, taking some pressure off the market. We are overdue for a rallyette. There is a chance we could make a short-term double bottom at the $162.00 level. And I want to hedge some of my short bond exposure. And I could always use another $2,000.

Bond option volatilities are still spectacularly high, offering ample opportunities to make money with vertical bear put spreads.

I am therefore buying the iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond Fund (TLT) June 2020 $149-$152 in-the-money vertical Bull call spread at $2.50 or best

Don’t pay more than $2.70 or you’ll be chasing.

If you don’t do options, stand aside. There is no trade for you at this level.

This is a bet that the (TLT) will not fall below $152.00 by the June 19 option expiration in 28 trading days. To lose money on this position, ten-year US Treasury yields would have to approach 1.00%, up from the current 0.71% in only 28 trading days.

Here are the specific trades you need to execute this position:

Buy 40 June 2020 (TLT) $149 calls at……..….…..……$14.00

Sell short 40 June 2020 (TLT) $152 calls at………...…$11.50

Net Cost:…………….......…………….………..………….….....$2.50

Potential Profit: $3.00 - $2.50 = $0.50

(40 X 100 X $0.50) = $2,000 or 20.00% in 28 trading days.

The Fat Lady is Singing for the Bond Market

To see how to enter this trade in your online platform, please look at the order ticket above, which I pulled off of Interactive Brokers.

If you are uncertain on how to execute an options spread, please watch my training video by clicking here.

The best execution can be had by placing your bid for the entire spread in the middle market and waiting for the market to come to you. The difference between the bid and the offer on these deep in-the-money spread trades can be enormous.

Don’t execute the legs individually or you will end up losing much of your profit. Spread pricing can be very volatile on expiration months farther out.

Keep in mind that these are ballpark prices at best. After the alerts go out, prices can be all over the map.

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