April 30, 2009

The Mad Hedge Fund Trader Global Market Comments April 30, 2009 Featured Trades: (TBT), (EUROYEN) 1) The whir of the printing presses again spooked the bond market, taking ten year Treasury bond yields up to 3.14%, and the 30 year to 4.10%, a one year high. This is going to be a recurring event over the next several years, and a short in long term Treasury bonds … [Read more...]

April 29, 2009

Global Market Comments April 29, 2009 Featured Trades: (JNK) 1) Q1 GDP came in at minus 6.1%, much worse than expected, hitting the economy's green shoots with a fatal dose of herbicide. There will no doubt be some at the Fed who are green around the gills over this one. There was a surprise fall in government spending, while consumer spending did better. With a … [Read more...]

April 28, 2009

Global Market Comments April 28, 2009 Featured Trades: (HANG SENG), (IBM), (LUMBER) 1) There is something wrong with this picture.  The Chinese stock market is shouting at us that the bull market is back, while the price of crude is telling us in more surreptitious tones that this is a bear market rally that will fail. If we were in a true economic recovery, crude … [Read more...]

April 27, 2009

Global Market Comments April 27, 2009 Featured Trades: (HANG SENG), (AA), (CCL), (RCL), (GILD), (RAD), (GSK), (GM), (F) 1) A few bad tacos in Mexico, and all of a sudden the world has gone apoplectic about another Spanish flu epidemic, when 5% of the global population died, or 50 million. The State Department banned non essential travel to Mexico, cratering that … [Read more...]

April 24, 2009

Global Market Comments April 24, 2009 Featured Trades: (MS), (REIT), (PLD), (KIM), (VNO), (AMB), (CIM), (SOYBEANS) 1) The big listed REIT's are grasping for a life raft, a life preserver, or a flotation device of any description they can get their hands on. Even Pamela Anderson will do! They have used this month's ferocious short covering rally to engage in … [Read more...]

April 23, 2009

Global Market Comments April 23, 2009 Featured Trades: (MS), (GS), (EEM), (RST), (GM) 1)  I have to confess that when my alma mater, Morgan Stanley (MS), announces earnings, it still tugs at the heart strings. We endlessly outperformed expectations, but laughed because we knew there were tons of latent profits sitting on the back books. The stock would rocket to trade … [Read more...]

April 22, 2009

Global Market Comments April 22, 2009 Featured Trades: (UNP), (PWR), (YHOO) 1) I took some time off yesterday to watch a piece of economic history roll through town. The Union Pacific Railway's (UNP) engine no. 844 roared past, hauling a trainload of retired union members and railroad buffs in its trademark yellow observation cars. The 4-8-4 steam engine … [Read more...]

April 21, 2009

Global Market Comments April 21, 2009 Featured Trades: (COPPER), (FCX) 1) Those who followed my recommendation to buy copper on January 5 are the happy participants in the first bubble of the year. The red metal has rocketed from $1.28 to $2.26, while producer Freeport McMoran (FCX) soared 88% from $25 to $47. Heavy and secretive stockpiling of the red metal by … [Read more...]

April 17, 2009

Global Market Comments April 17, 2009 Featured Trades: (PHM), (CTX), (POT), (MOS), (AGU), (WHEAT), (CORN), (SOYBEANS), (RICE) 1) March Housing Starts came in at 510,000, down 10.8% from February, and short of the 540,000 consensus. Permits fell 9% to 513,000. Completions were down 3.5% to 796,000.  The estimated five million houses for sale, in foreclosure, or … [Read more...]

April 16, 2009

Global Market Comments April 16, 2009 1) I chatted with Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi yesterday as she was passing through the San Francisco Bay Area. I have known Nancy for 15 years, and she was breathing fire and spitting nails as usual. With the public fuming over banksters' bonuses and bail outs, Wall Street can pretty much count on a Congressional … [Read more...]

April 15, 2009

Global Market Comments April 15, 2009 Featured Trades: (GM), (CHINA), (MSO) 1) Thanks, but no thanks! Goldman Sachs (GS) voted with a big thumbs down on the stock market today yesterday by issuing $5 billion in new equity at $123/share. Perhaps not coincidently, this gives the government a $1 profit on its holding in the venerated former investment bank. The move comes on … [Read more...]

April 14, 2009

Global Market Comments April 14, 2009 Featured Trades: (WFC), (WB), (JPM, (BAC), (C), (GM) 1) So there is life after near death! Wells Fargo (WFC) stunned the street with a surprise $3 billion profit in Q1, vastly better than expectations. The shocker was that charge offs from loan losses amounted to only $3.3 billion, a shadow of forecasts that ranged as high as $8 … [Read more...]

April 13, 2009

Global Market Comments April 13, 2009 Featured Trades: (VIX), ($BVSP), (RSX), ($BSE), (FXI), ($KOSPI), (SPX), (EEM), (TBT), (PHB), (HYG), (FCX), (CHK), (COPPER), (OIL), (NATGAS), ($XEU), (REIT) First Quarter Report Card Many readers have asked me to review my recommendations of the last three months, so here is The Mad Hedge Fund Trader's Q1 report card. I have … [Read more...]

April 9, 2009

Global Market Comments April 9, 2009 Featured Trades: (GOLD), (ABX), (GM), (TM) 1) 'There is room for bulls and bears, but pigs get slaughtered,' said Peter Munk, the legendary founder and CEO of Barrick Gold, the world's largest gold producer. This is his admonition to worshipers of the barbaric relic hoping for a quick super spike to $2,000 or $5,000 an … [Read more...]

April 8, 2009

Global Market Comments April 8, 2009 Featured Trades: (PLD), (TBT), (PHM), (CTX) 1) I bumped into Jim Lehrer last night, the legendary anchor of 'The News Hour With Jim Lehrer' on PBS, as he breezed through the San Francisco Bay Area promoting his 22nd novel, 'Oh, Johnny'. The ex-Marine, whose first big story was covering the Kennedy assassination in … [Read more...]

April 7, 2009

Global Market Comments April 7, 2009 Featured Trades: (VIX), (SPX) 1) Today I spoke to my old Morgan Stanley boss , Barton Biggs, who is so bullish that he believes we are only one third to one half of the way through the current stock market rally. Barton, voted best international strategist for seven years, and one of the founding fathers of investment in emerging … [Read more...]

April 6, 2009

Global Market Comments April 6, 2006 Featured Trades: (CHINA), (CRUDE), ($WTIC) 1) Deutsche Bank's former banking analyst Michael Mayo sucker punched the market today, putting out a report ominously entitled 'The Seven Deadly Sins of Banking' listing all 11 major banks as 'underperforms' or 'sells'.  Talk about closing the gate after the horses … [Read more...]

April 2, 2009

Global Market Comments for April 2, 2009 Featured Trades: (LITHIUM), (SQM), (AMTD), (SCHW), (SWIM) 1) See? All it takes was a little accounting rule change, and Great Depression II will go away. At least that's what the stock market thought today, surging 300 points and blasting through 8,000 in the Dow, up 26% from its March 9 low. The only problem with this is that … [Read more...]

April 1, 2009

Global Market Comments for April 1, 2009 Featured Trades: (COPPER), (GOLD), (TM), (YEN) 1) The March ADP private sector employment report was diabolical once again, showing a loss of 742,000 jobs, the worst monthly showing in history. Boy, am I getting sick of saying 'worse than expected'. To add insult to injury, February was revised up from -675,000 to … [Read more...]