Monday, February 3 Brisbane, Australia Global Strategy Luncheon

Come join me for lunch at the Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Global Strategy Luncheon, which I will be conducting in Brisbane, Australia on Monday, February 3, 2020 at 12.30 PM.

An excellent meal will be followed by a wide-ranging discussion and a question-and-answer period. I’ll be giving you my up-to-date view on stocks, bonds, currencies, commodities, precious metals, energy, and real estate.

I also hope to provide some insight into America’s opaque and confusing political system. And to keep you in suspense, I’ll be throwing a few surprises out there too.

Tickets are available for $234.

The lunch will be held at an exclusive hotel in downtown Brisbane, the location of which will be emailed with your purchase confirmation.

I look forward to meeting you and thank you for supporting my research. To purchase tickets for this luncheon, please click here.

Quote of the Day – January 21, 2020

“A pessimist sees the difficulty in every opportunity; an optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty,” said the late British Prime Minister, Winston Churchill.

Winston Churchill

Quote of the Day – January 17, 2020

“Rational people don’t risk what they have and need for what they don’t have and don’t need,” said Oracle of Omaha Warren Buffet.

January 16, 2020 – Quote of the Day

“The United States is afflicted with new eras. Let us not think that the current illusion is unique. It is intimately part of the American character,” said the great American economist, John Kenneth Galbraith.

Friday, January 31, 2020 Guadalcanal Strategy Luncheon

Come join me for lunch at the Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Global Strategy Update, which I will be conducting in Honiara in the Solomon Islands at 12:30 PM on Friday, January 31, 2020.

An excellent meal will be followed by a wide-ranging discussion and an extended question-and-answer period.

I’ll be giving you my up-to-date view on stocks, bonds, currencies, commodities, precious metals, energy, and real estate.

And to keep you in suspense, I’ll be throwing a few surprises out there too.

Tickets are available for $299.

The lunch will be held at the only decent hotel in the Solomon Islands, one of the poorest countries in the world. Malaria is endemic, so bring your Malaria pills (start taking them three days before departure). Typhoid shots will also be helpful.

If you have any questions about the Guadalcanal luncheon, please email me at support@madhedgefundtrader.com. Just put “Guadalcanal Luncheon” in the subject line.

I look forward to meeting you and thank you for supporting my research. To purchase tickets for this luncheon, please click here.

When the Commandant of the Marine Corps asks for a favor, you say “Yes Sir” without hesitating. So when General David H. Berger called me and asked to represent him at the 78th annual memorial service for the 1942 Battle of Guadalcanal, I started booking my flight.

It seems I’m the only living Corps veteran who had both a father and an uncle fight at Guadalcanal, who also speaks Japanese. That will enable me to sympathize with the Japanese families attending the service who lost loved ones.

I have acted as a diplomatic representative for the Marine Corps for many decades. Over the years, I have met presidents, Medal of Honor winners, and Navaho code talkers. My favorite was always the annual D-Day memorials at the Normandy beaches where I usually participated in a flyover. For a history buff like me, it’s a dream come true. Plus, Normandy had better food.

Guadalcanal was the decisive battle of WWII. The Americans lost 7,000 men, 25 ships, and 175 planes. The Japanese lost 30,000 men, 25 ships, including a major battleship, and 450 planes. Before Guadalcanal, the Japanese had never lost a battle. After Guadalcanal, they never won. If the US had lost Guadalcanal, WWII would have continued until 1948 or 1949.

Dad on the Right

 

Quote of the Day – January 15, 2020

“Where a calculator on the Eniac is equipped with 18,000 tubes and weighs 30 tons, computers in the future may have only 1,000 vacuum tubes, and weigh 1.5 tons,” said Popular Mechanics magazine in 1949.

Ticker Tape

Shopping for Fire Insurance During a Hurricane

With the Volatility Index back at a lowly $12, I am getting deluged with emails from readers asking if it is time to start hedging portfolios one more time and buying the iPath S&P 500 VIX Short Term Futures ETN (VXX).

The answer is no yet, but soon, possibly very soon.

They are inquiring at absolutely the right time.

And here is the problem. When the (VIX) rises, it usually spikes straight up, and then right back down again. That means the stock market has one more sharp selloff left before we hit bottom for 2020 and bounce.

Markets can ignore trade wars, rising interest rates, zero interest rates, foreign assassinations, falling earnings, and international political instability (Britain and Hong Kong) for a while, but not forever. When the time DOES come to pay the piper, prices with volatility will rocket.

So I am more than usually interested in hedging the downside risk for my trading book. A good rule of thumb is to let the (VIX) sit at a bottom for weeks, and then go buy the (VXX). That way you can ignore expensive and unnecessary time decay.

Which all brings me to the subject at hand.

If you are new to the service and have no longs, you probably should skip this trade and just watch it as a learning experience.

This can also be a great hedge for any long positions we may want to add in the coming weeks, such as in “trade peace,” or technology plays.

As I never tire of telling people, no one ever complains when they buy fire insurance and their house doesn’t burn down.

If you are new to this service, don’t freak out. My daily research newsletters are not always about exploring the esoterica of options, or volatility trading.

I’ll let you know when I’m ready to pull the trigger with a Trade Alert.

I am always trying to get better prices.

If you are new to the (VIX) game, please read the educational piece below.

 

 

 

January 14, 2020 – Quote of the Day

“You don’t want to invest based on a political prism,” said Oracle of Omaha Warren Buffet.

January 13, 2020

Global Market Comments
January 13, 2019
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:

(MARKET OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK AHEAD, or THE TITANIUM MARKET)
(SPY), (TLT), (TSLA), (GLD), (USO), (NFLX), (DIS), (LEN), (BA)

January 13, 2020 – Quote of the Day

“We live in a world that is not described by classical economics,” said Oracle of Omaha Warren Buffet.