April 30, 2010 – New York Strategy Luncheon

Featured Trades: (NEW YORK STRATEGY LUNCHEON) 1) Just a reminder that you only have a week left to buy tickets to my New York  Global Strategy Update. It will be held at 12:00 noon on Friday, May 7, at the New York Athletic Club. The club can be found at 180 Central Park South, New York, NY 10019. You can find me at the Presidential Room on the 10th floor. A three … [Read more...]

April 30, 2010 – How Can the Us Go Up and China Go Down?

Featured Trades: (FXI), (SPX), ($SSEC) 2) How Can the US Go Up and China Go Down? There is something that is not right with these pictures. Investor sentiment is now 54% bullish, the highest since December, 2007. In the meantime, the Chinese stock market is rolling over like the Bismark, with the Shanghai Index's ($SSEC) down a worrisome 10.8% YTD. You can blame … [Read more...]

April 30, 2010 – Nickel Smashes Through to Three Year High

Featured Trades: (NICKEL), (JJN) 3) Nickel Smashes Through to Three Year High. The bull market in industrial commodities has spilled over from copper, palladium, iron ore to nickel, which hit $27,500/ tonne in trading on the London Metals Exchange yesterday, up 42% YTD. As a result of the price surge, a nickel is now worth 6.2 cents of the base metal. The soaring … [Read more...]

April 30, 2010 – The Real Logic Behind Hewlett Packard’s Takeover of Palm

Featured Trades: (PALM), (HPQ), (AAPL), (RIMM), (CHA), (GS) 4) The Real Logic Behind Hewlett Packard's Takeover of Palm. I think that Hewlett Packard's (HPQ) takeover of Palm (PALM) for $1.2 billion speaks volumes about the future of technology in the global economy. While HPQ's late entry into the sector so they can go head to head with Apple's … [Read more...]

April 30, 2010 – Quote of the Day

'Sometimes we stare so long at a door that is closing that we see too late the one that is open,' said Alexander Graham Bell, inventor of the telephone. … [Read more...]

April 29, 2010 – It’s All Over But the Crying for Greece

Featured Trades: (GREECE) 1) It's All Over But the Crying for Greece. The home of Socrates and Plato is so deep under water with its finances that only three years of Great Depression conditions could bring them back into balance. Yesterday, Standard & Poor's downgraded the beleaguered nation's debt to junk, causing the yield on its two year debt to soar to a … [Read more...]

April 29, 2010 – There is a Gold Rush Underway in Iraq, with Major Implications for the Rest of Us

Featured Trades: (OIL), (USO), (SLB), (BHI), (WFT), (HAL) 2) There is a Gold Rush Underway in Iraq, with Major Implications for the Rest of Us. The success of the recent oil auctions in Iraq is creating a windfall for American oil services companies. Schlumberger (SLB), Baker Hughes (BHI), Weatherford (WFT), and Halliburton (HAL) have committed to drilling … [Read more...]

April 29, 2010 – The Economic Miracle That is South Korea is Firing on All 16 Cylinders

Featured Trades: (SOUTH KOREA), (EWZ) 3) The Economic Miracle That is South Korea is Firing on All 16 Cylinders, taking the KOSPI up 6% YTD. Q1 GDP grew at an annualized rate of 7.8%, driven by a huge rebound in electronics exports and a big contribution from stimulus driven civil engineering. Credit Suisse says the full year GDP figure could come in as high as 6.2%. … [Read more...]

April 29, 2010 – It’s Off to the Races at Caterpillar

Featured Trades: (CAT) 4) It's Off to the Races at Caterpillar. I hang on every word that comes out of the mouth of Caterpillar (CAT) CEO Jim Owens. His company sells the bulldozers, heavy trucks, and diesel engines that are the required tools for miners and drillers to rip their essential resources out of the ground around the world. I have been following … [Read more...]

April 28, 2010 – There is only one trade right now, and that is 'Risk On”

Featured Trades: (THE NEW ASSET BUBBLE) 1) There is only one trade right now, and that is 'Risk On.' I noticed that I have had trouble composing my newsletter lately because in thumbnail form, all charts now look the same, those of a gull winged 'V's'. Looking at the long list of positions that I have recommended this year, including municipal, … [Read more...]

April 28, 2010 – The One Bright Spot in Real Estate

Featured Trades: (MULTIFAMILY HOUSING) 2) The One Bright Spot in Real Estate. After my weekly dump on residential real estate yesterday, I feel obliged to reveal one corner of this beleaguered market that might actually make sense. By 2050 the population of California will soar from 37 million to 50 million, and that of the US from 300 million to 400 million, … [Read more...]

April 28, 2010 – Ganging Up on the Yen

Featured Trades: (YEN), (YCS), (YUAN), (CYB) 3) Ganging Up on the Yen. My old friend, Eisuke Sakakibara, Japan's former vice minister of finance and director of the IMF, also known as 'Mr. Yen,' believes that the Japanese currency is going to trade in a ¥92-¥97 range. That will frustrate hedge funds that pile on enormous short positions betting that the Japanese … [Read more...]

April 28, 2010 – Union Pacific (UNP) is Barreling Down the Rails

Featured Trades: (UNP), (PPLT), (PALL) 4) Union Pacific (UNP) is Barreling Down the Rails. I am going to run a series of articles over the next several days about the earnings reports of companies which are great 'tells' on the state of the global economy.  Union Pacific (UNP) just announced Q1 profits of $516 million on revenues of $3.96 billion. Volume is up 13% as a … [Read more...]

April 28, 2010 – Quote of the Day

If you think you are going to get a free ride, or a white horse to bail you out, the white horse is dead,' Said Senator Chris Dodd, chairman of the Senate Banking Committee, about the new financial regulation bill. … [Read more...]

April 27, 2010 – San Francisco Strategy Luncheon

Featured Trades: (SAN FRANCISCO STRATEGY LUNCHEON) 1) Many thanks to all of you who attended my strategy luncheon at the Marines' Memorial Association in San Francisco on Friday. I found your questions insightful and your positive feedback inspirational. The club's meal and service was fabulous, as always. The security provided by the army battalion in full … [Read more...]

April 27, 2010 – Cash is Piling into Emerging Market Debt

Featured Trades: (PCY), (LQD) 2) Cash is Piling into Emerging Market Debt. Last year, I suggested emerging market sovereign debt ETF's as safe, high yielding investments in which to hide out in case the equity markets swoon again (click here for the call). With hedge funds scrambling to pile on more risk, and mutual funds now blatantly chasing performance, the Invesco … [Read more...]

April 27, 2010 – Quote of the Day

'Shallow ideas can be assimilated; ideas that require people to reorganize their picture of the world provoke hostility,' said David Gurwitz of Charles Nenner research, quoting James Gleick's book Chaos. … [Read more...]

April 23, 2010 – Autonation Predicts a Big Recovery in Car Sales…and Platinum and Paladium

Featured Trades: (AN), (TM), (PPLT), (PALL) 1) Autonation Predicts a Big Recovery in Car Sales....and Platinum and Paladium. The performance of AutoNation (AN), the largest car retailer in the US, is a great leading indicator for the global economy and is to be ignored at your peril. Q1 revenues soared by a blistering 21% across every category, segment and geographic … [Read more...]

April 23, 2010 – California Muni Bonds: Load the Boat Now!

Featured Trades: (VCV), (NCP), (NVX) 2) California Muni Bonds: Load the Boat Now! Those who followed my advice to 'buy' California at the bottom by loading up on the state's beleaguered tax free municipal bonds (click here for the call) will be excited by the latest report from controller, John Chiang. The Golden State's revenues are suddenly running far ahead of even … [Read more...]

April 23, 2010 – Learn to Live With Deleveraging

Featured Trades: (GLOBAL DEBT/EQUITY RATIOS) 3) Learn to Live With Deleveraging. I am frequently asked for the basis of my long term growth target for the US for the decade of 2.5%, down from 3.9% for the previous one. Well, here it is. Deleveraging and balance sheet repair is going to be a driving factor for governments, corporate management, and individuals for many … [Read more...]

April 23, 2010 – Business is Booming at the Money Printers

Featured Trades: ($100 DOLLAR BILL) 4) Business is Booming at the Money Printers. All of the high grade paper used by the US Treasury to print money is bought by one firm, Crane & Co., which has been in the same family for seven generations. Last year, the Feds printed 38 million banknotes worth $639 million. Although they have seen the recession cause the … [Read more...]

April 23, 2010 – Quote of the Day

'It's still a long journey back to 16 million, but the journey is unequivocally under way,' said Mike Jackson, CEO of AutoNation, the largest car retailer in the US. … [Read more...]

April 22, 2010 – The Canadian Dollar is About to Rocket

SPECIAL 'OH CANADA' ISSUE Featured Trades: (CANADA), (FXC), (EWC)   1) The Canadian Dollar is About to Rocket. The Canadian central bank hinted today that they may raise interest rates at their next meeting, sending the loonie (FXC), rocketing through parity against Uncle Buck for the first time in two years. The move also sent Canadian stocks flying like a … [Read more...]

April 22, 2010 – Beware of Canadians Bearing Gifts

SPECIAL 'OH CANADA' ISSUE Featured Trades: (CANADA), (FXC), (EWC), (TAR SANDS) 2) Beware of Canadians Bearing Gifts. Anyone who has any illusions about the Canadian tar sands business should take a look at the March issue of National Geographic, not normally a prime source of financial and economic news for me. I'm not a fanatic, sandal wearing, … [Read more...]

April 22, 2010 – The Suit Against Goldman Sachs is Going Nowhere

SPECIAL 'OH CANADA' ISSUE Featured Trades: (GS) 3) The Suit Against Goldman Sachs is Going Nowhere. It is now 2015, and after five years of legal maneuvering, depositions, and motions, the SEC's case against Goldman Sachs (GS) is finally coming to trial. Settlement negotiations have proven fruitless. The stock market is well into another bubble, and … [Read more...]

April 21, 2010 – Better Buy Those Flowers for Mother’s Day Now

Featured Trades: (FUMEROLES), (CRUDE) 1) Better buy those flowers for Mother's Day now because a flower famine is about to hit, sending prices soaring. The eruption of the Icelandic volcano Eyjafjallajökull has disrupted world trade in ways no one thought possible, and provides a fascinating snapshot of the state of globalization. The world flower market based in … [Read more...]

April 21, 2010 – It Looks Like the Goldman Sachs (GS) Black Swan Was a One Day Wonder

Featured Trades: (WORLD GDP), (GS), (YEN), (YCS) 4) It looks like the Goldman Sachs (GS) black swan was a one day wonder, as I expected.  It seems that zero interest rates trump all, once again. Even GS stock has been going up, as the flaws in the SEC's case become much more evident. Of course, knocking the socks off their Q1 earnings on the back of huge bond trading … [Read more...]

April 21, 2010 – Quote of the Day

'Today, the average healthy 50 year old woman will live to 92. That's old enough to forget your first husband,' said Sally Krawcheck, president of global wealth management at Bank of America. … [Read more...]

April 20, 2010 – How Long Will the Risk Reversal Last?

(SPECIAL BLACK SWAN ISSUE) Featured Trades: (EVERYTHING) 1) How Long Will the Risk Reversal Last? It looks like May came early this year, as in the 'sell in May and go away' variety. The first 'black swan' of the year has alighted on the market. The news that the SEC brought civil fraud cases against Goldman Sachs sent traders scrambling to cope with markets that … [Read more...]

April 20, 2010 – What Does the Debacle at Goldman Sachs Mean for Stocks?

(SPECIAL BLACK SWAN ISSUE) Featured Trades: (EVERYTHING) 2) What Does the Debacle at Goldman Sachs Mean for Stocks? I can tell you that the timing of the SEC's GS announcement absolutely reeks, coming on a Friday at a market top, just as the debate about financial regulation has become the business at hand in congress. The case demolishes any Wall … [Read more...]

April 20, 2010 – What Goldman Sachs Means for Your Portfolio

(SPECIAL BLACK SWAN ISSUE) Featured Trades: (EVERYTHING) 3) What Goldman Sachs Means for Your Portfolio. This is an excellent time for me to remind readers what this letter is all about. I assume that only grownups are acting on the suggestions herein. That means that you are a financial professional or hedge fund manager who keeps in place effective risk control … [Read more...]

April 19, 2010 – Uncle Yen

Featured Trades: (YEN), (YCS), (GS) 1) I have a new rich uncle. His name is Uncle Yen, and he is writing me a big fat check almost every day, enabling me to live my luxurious, in your face lifestyle.  Not only have I covered the Citation's fuel bills for the year, I managed to pay for the annual and two engine rebuilds as well. Since my initial call to dump the yen … [Read more...]

April 19, 2010 – Technology Earnings Are Powering the Market

Featured Trades: (GOOG), (TM), (TECHNOLOGY STOCKS) 2) Technology Earnings Are Powering the Market. The relentless ascent of the stock market continues to send technical records dropping like flies. The S&P 500 has spent the longest period above the ten day moving average since 1950. The shorts have given up. Technology has been on an absolute tear, as I expected … [Read more...]

April 19, 2010 – Check Out Chinese Internet Firm Baidu, If You Want to Play at the Deep End

Featured Trades: (BIDU), (GOOG) 3) Check Out Chinese Internet Firm Baidu, If You Want to Play at the Deep End. If you think our tech stocks are hot, take a look at those in China. Baidu (BIDU), one of my core longs, is now up 640% from the 2009 lows, no doubt cashing in on chief competitor Google's (GOOG) scaling back of operations in their country. You should … [Read more...]

April 19, 2010 – My Calls Are in to Goldman

Featured Trades: (GS) 4) My Calls Are in to Goldman. The news of the SEC's fraud accusations against Goldman Sachs broke ten minutes ago. I have calls into the vampire squid and want to talk to a few people I know there before I write any more. This has clearly thrown the world financial markets into risk reduction mode. I have to figure out if this is a one … [Read more...]

April 19, 2010 – Quote of the Day

'The art of taxation consists of so plucking the goose as to obtain the largest  amount of feathers with the smallest amount of hissing,' said Jean-Baptist Colbert, a 17th century French minister of Finance. … [Read more...]

April 16, 2010 – Only One Week Left to Buy Tickets to the April 23 San Francisco Strategy Luncheon

Featured Trades: (SAN FRANCISCO STRATEGY LUNCHEON) 1) Only One Week Left to Buy Tickets to the April 23 San Francisco Strategy Luncheon. A three course lunch will be followed by a 45 minute PowerPoint presentation and a 30 minute question and answer period. I'll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, currencies commodities, precious metals, and real … [Read more...]

April 16, 2010 – Obama’s Secret Plan for Economic Revival

Featured Trades: (OBAMA'S BUDGET PLANS), (TBT) 2) Obama's Secret Plan for Economic Revival. Obama's strategy to extricate the US from its dire economic straights has been leaking out from Washington over the past few weeks. How does he wean the country off of massive stimulus programs, zero interest rates, and ballooning deficits?  The former community activist from … [Read more...]

April 16, 2010 – Will Obama Pack the Federal Reserve Board with Doves?

Featured Trades: (OBAMA'S BUDGET PLANS), (TBT) 3) Will Obama Pack the Federal Reserve Board with Doves? There is one decision which Obama has to render soon which no one seems to be focusing on. The president has to appoint three Federal Reserve governors to fill empty seats, the most since President Franklin D. Roosevelt faced the same task in 1935. Obama's choices in … [Read more...]

April 16, 2010 – Bubble Rages in the Junk Bond Market

Featured Trades: (JNK), (HYG), (PHB) 4) Bubble Rages in the Junk Bond Market. The junk bond market is entering positively bubblicious territory, tracking the upward ascent of stocks almost step for step. The high yield ETF's (JNK), (HYG), (PHB) have now nearly doubled since I recommended them a year ago (click here for the call). The amazing thing for me is that this … [Read more...]

August 16, 2010 – Quote of the Day

'I can calculate the motions of heavenly bodies, but never the madness of crowds,' said Sir Isaac Newton, the inventor of calculus and discoverer of Newton's Laws, who lost his entire fortune in a 17th century investment scam called 'the south Sea Bubble.' … [Read more...]

April 13, 2010 – Tim Iacono on Hedge Fund Radio

Featured Trades: (TIM IACONO), (GOLD) 1) Tim Iacono on Hedge Fund Radio. Tim Iacono, is a man who lives without stocks. He does this from a remote mountain top in rural Bend, Oregon, where he has the luxury of spending his days researching long term trends in the financial markets. Maybe it is the incessant rain that keeps him working indoors so long, sifting through … [Read more...]

April 13, 2010 – The Party Continues in Copper

Featured Trades: (COPPER) 2) The Party Continues in Copper. My expectation that copper prices would rocket in the wake of Chile's massive 8.8 magnitude earthquake certainly came through in spades (click here for the call) No surprise that knocking out 27% of the world's supply would take prices up 14% to $3.64/pound. While the mines themselves were mercifully … [Read more...]

April 13, 2010 – Recovering Car Market Delivers a Home Run for Palladium and Platinum

Featured Trades: (PALL), (PPLT) 3) Recovering Car Market Delivers a Home Run for Palladium and Platinum. My bet that recovering demand for autos would spill over into the catalytic converter metals certainly was a home run. It was clear to me last fall that with the average age of America's 240 million car fleet at an all time high of 14 years, industry analysts were … [Read more...]

April 12, 2010 – Demographics Point to No “V” Shaped Recovery in Real Estate

Featured Trades: (EEM), (VNM) 1) Demographics Point to No "V" Shaped Recovery in Real Estate. Desperate homeowners counting on a "V" shaped recovery in residential real estate prices to bail them out better first take a close look at global demographic data, which tells us there will be no recovery at all. I have been using the US Census Bureau's population pyramids as … [Read more...]

April 12, 2010 – Here is the World’s Worst Population Pyramid

Featured Trades: (EEM), (VNM) 2) Here is the World's Worst Population Pyramid. Now look at the world's worst population pyramid, that for Japan. These graphs show that a nearly perfect pyramid drove a miracle stock market during the fifties and sixties which I remember well, when Japan had your textbook high growth emerging market economy. That changed … [Read more...]

April 12, 2010 – If Demographics is Destiny, Then America’s Outlook Sucks

Featured Trades: (EEM) 3) If Demographics is Destiny, Then America's Outlook Sucks. Brace yourself. We are turning into Japan. As a silver tsunami of 80 million baby boomers retires, they will be followed by only 65 million from generation "X". The intractable problems that unhappy Japan is facing will soon arrive at our shores. Boomers, therefore, better not count … [Read more...]

April 12, 2010 – Vietnam Has the World’s Best Population Pyramid

Featured Trades: (VNM), (GE) 4) Vietnam Has the World's Best Population Pyramid. Now that we have figured out that Vietnam is a great place to invest, take a look at the Van Eck Groups Vietnam Index Fund (VNM). The venture will invest in companies that get 50% or more of their earnings from that country, with an anticipated 37% exposure in finance, and 19% in energy. … [Read more...]

April 5, 2010 – The Mad Hedge Fund Trader Interviews Tim Iocono of “The Mess Greenspan Made” on Hedge Fund Radio

Tim Iacono, is a man who lives without stocks. He does this from a remote mountain top in rural Bend, Oregon, where he has the luxury of spending his days researching long term trends in the financial markets. Maybe it is the incessant rain that keeps him working indoors so long, sifting through the grains of data he pulls off the Internet. Whatever Tim is doing, it is … [Read more...]

April 1, 2010 – The Yen is Setting Up for a Short, But Higher Up

Featured Trades: (YEN), (YCS), (EURO/YEN) 1) The Yen is Setting Up for a Short, But Higher Up. 'Oh, how I despise the yen, let me count the ways.' I'm sure Shakespeare would have come up with a line of iambic pentameter similar to this if he were a foreign exchange trader. Those who followed me into a yen short at ¥88.5 on March 5 and held on until yesterday's low of … [Read more...]

April 1, 2010 – The Most Overcrowded Trades in the Market

Featured Trades: (GLD), (VIX), (TBT), (TBF), (DRR), (FXB) 2) The Most Overcrowded Trades in the Market. The boutique New York stock broker, ConvergEx, produced a list of the five most over crowded trades in the market today. Here they are with my comments: 1) Long gold (GLD): when half of the late night TV advertising is devoted to the fortunes to be made in the … [Read more...]