March 30, 2011 – Check Out the Dip in Palladium

Featured Trades: (PALLADIUM), (PLATINUM), (PALL), (PPLT)   4) Check Out the Dip in Palladium. If you want to see the one precious metal that has been beaten senseless by the disaster in Japan, take a look at Palladium (PALL). Thanks to its close ties to the auto industry, the white metal has plummeted by 22% since its February peak. Similarly used platinum (PPLT) has … [Read more...]

March 29, 2011 – Last Chance to Buy a Ticket for the Thursday, March 31 New York Strategy Luncheon.

Featured Trades: (NEW YORK STRATEGY LUNCHEON)   Last Chance to Buy a Ticket for the Thursday, March 31 New York Strategy Luncheon. The Mad Hedge Fund Trader's Global Strategy Update will be held at 12:00 noon on Thursday, March 31, 2011. The event will be held at an exclusive private club on Central Park South.  A three course lunch will be followed by a 30 … [Read more...]

March 25, 2011 – Last Chance to buy a Ticket to the April 4 London, England Strategy Luncheon

Featured Trades: (LONDON STRATEGY LUNCHEON) 1) Last Chance to buy a Ticket to the April 4 London, England Strategy Luncheon. Come join me for lunch for the Mad Hedge Fund Trader's Global Strategy Update, which I will be conducting in London, England on Monday, April 4, 2011. A three course lunch will be followed by a 45 minute PowerPoint presentation and a 45 minute … [Read more...]

March 25, 2011 – Hedge Funds are About to Undress

Featured Trades: (US HEDGE FUNDS ARE ABOUT TO UNDRESS)   2) Hedge Funds are About to Undress. The July 21 deadline for the hedge funds to register required by the one year anniversary of the Dodd-Frank bill is fast approaching, and the industry is roiling with turmoil. The net result for the rest of us could be shrinking market liquidity and falling asset prices as … [Read more...]

March 25, 2011 – Airline Stocks Could Be Ready for Take Off

Featured Trades: (AIRLINE STOCKS COULD BE READY FOR A TAKEOFF)   3) Airline Stocks Could Be Ready for Take Off. When I was a young, clueless investment banker at Morgan Stanley 30 years ago, the head of equity sales took me aside to give me some fatherly advice. Never touch the airline industry. The profitability of this industry is totally dependent on fuel costs, … [Read more...]

March 24, 2011 – Last Chance to Buy a Ticket for the Thursday, March 31 New York Strategy Luncheon

Featured Trades: (NEW YORK STRATEGY LUNCHEON)   1) Last Chance to Buy a Ticket for the Thursday, March 31 New York Strategy Luncheon. The Mad Hedge Fund Trader's Global Strategy Update will be held at 12:00 noon on Thursday, March 31, 2011. The event will be held at an exclusive private club on Central Park South.  A three course lunch will be followed by a … [Read more...]

March 24, 2011 – Guess Who's Buying Gold

Featured Trades: (GUESS WHO'S BUYING GOLD), (GLD), (SLV), (ABX)   2) Guess Who's Buying Gold. With gold threatening to break out to a new all-time high, and silver having already done so, some interesting facts are coming out about the precious metals market. It turns out that Iran has been a major buyer, with the Financial Times reporting that the rogue … [Read more...]

March 24, 2011 – Yen Post Mortem

Featured Trades: (POST MORTEM ON THE YEN)   3) Yen Post Mortem. Since my bet that the Japanese yen would decline clearly didn't work, I thought I would sift through some alternative theories in an attempt to understand why this trade came undone so badly. After all, every loss is a lesson, best to be learned. You would think that with weak economic growth, horrendous … [Read more...]

March 23, 2011 – Welcome to World War III

Featured Trades: (WELCOME TO WWIII) 1) Welcome to World War III. If there was ever a war that had to happen it is our new military engagement against Libya. Khadafy had made enemies with so many governments as the enfant terrible of the Middle East that putting together a coalition to depose him was a piece of cake. No arm twisting or fake intelligence about … [Read more...]

March 23, 2011 – Oil Isn't What It Used to Be

Featured Trades: (OIL ISN'T WHAT IT USED TO BE)   2) Oil Isn't What It Used to Be. Virtually every analyst has been puzzled by the seeming immunity of stock markets to soaring oil prices this year. In fact, stocks and crude have been tracking almost one to one on the upside. The charts below a friend at JP Morgan sent me go a long way towards explaining this … [Read more...]

March 22, 2011 – Tesla: Sell the Sizzle, Then Buy the Steak

Featured Trades: (TESLA MOTORS), (TSLA)   2) Tesla: Sell the Sizzle, Then Buy the Steak. So far, the most successful thing Tesla Motors (TSLA) has done is sell stock. The IPO was an absolute blowout success, far and away the best this year, with book building at $14-$16, the size increased by 20%, pricing at $17, and then trading up to $32 on the third day, giving it … [Read more...]

March 22, 2011 – Pssst! Have You Heard About’..?

Featured Trades: (RHODIUM), (AAUKY.PK), (PAL), (SWC)   3) Pssst! Have You Heard About'..? When I was at the New York Hard Asset Investment Conference, every hour someone would stop by my table, mention the word 'rhodium', and walk away. My interest piqued, I decided to look into this mysterious metal. Rhodium (Rh) is in fact the rarest precious metal in the world, … [Read more...]

March 22, 2011 – A Poolside Report from City Center

Featured Trades: (LAS VEGAS CITY CENTER)   4) A Poolside Report from City Center. I write this to you from my poolside cabana at the Aria at City Center, the newest and hottest hotel in Las Vegas, against a background of blaring rock music and helicopters buzzing overhead every five minutes. It's amazing what passes for a swim suit these days, and some of the tattoos … [Read more...]

March 21, 2011 – Watch Out for Those Dinosaur Turds

Featured Trades: (DINOSAUR TURDS)   3) Watch Out for Those Dinosaur Turds. The dinosaur bone market has crunched. Once a favorite collectable of high flying hedge fund managers, the prices of everything from tyrannosaurus rex to brontosaurus fossils have skidded. A recent auction of a triceratops skeleton failed to reach its minimum bid of $1 million. Even prices for … [Read more...]

March 21, 2011 – How US Job Losses Will End

Featured Trades: (STRUCTURAL UNEMPLOYMENT), (FXI), (EWY), (VNM), (PIN)   4) How US Job Losses Will End. I am not in the habit of regularly lifting data out of the Wall Street Journal, but even a blind squirrel occasionally finds an acorn. I was tempted by the comparative Asian wage data they published, which I just have to get into my data base. Textile workers earn … [Read more...]

March 18, 2011 – Less than Two Weeks to Go until the Thursday, March 31 New York Strategy Luncheon

Featured Trades: (NEW YORK STRATEGY LUNCHEON) 1) Less than Two Weeks to Go until the Thursday, March 31 New York Strategy Luncheon. The Mad Hedge Fund Trader's Global Strategy Update will be held at 12:00 noon on Thursday, March 31, 2011. The event will be held at an exclusive private club on Central Park South.  A three course lunch will be followed by a 30 … [Read more...]

March 18, 2011 – Stopped Out of My Yen Short

Featured Trades: (STOPPED OUT ON MY YEN SHORT), (FXY), (YCS)   2) Stopped Out of My Yen Short. My standing stop loss order to cover my short in the Japanese yen got triggered right as it dipped under ¥80, a new all-time high. The massive flight to cover huge yen carry trades is the cause, as the world rushes to cover short positions in the yen and sell everything … [Read more...]

March 18, 2011 – My Shopping List of Technology Stocks

Featured Trades: (MY SHOPPING LIST OF TECHNOLOGY STOCKS), (AAPL), (CSCO), (HPQ), (ORCL), (GOOG), (INTC), (JDSU), (QQQ), (ROM), (XLK)   3) My Shopping List of Technology Stocks. Hedge fund managers are smacking their lips, maneuvering to take advantage of the recent sharp sell off by technology stocks. They are building shopping lists of where to pounce at the first … [Read more...]

March 18, 2011 – Quote of the Day

'The seller has an upper hand, as a girl might if she were the only female at a party attended by many boys. That lopsided situation would be great for the girl, but terrible fort the boys,' ' said 'Oracle of Omaha', Warren Buffet, CEO and the largest shareholder in Berkshire Hathaway. … [Read more...]

March 17, 2011 – QE2 Just Ended Early

Featured Trades: (QE2 JUST ENDED EARLY), (DIG), (JJG), (AAPL) 1) QE2 Just Ended Early. Many observers believe that the massive sell off that we have seen in global equity markets are purely the result of the Great Sendai Earthquake. Fat chance. I think the earthquake is masking the true causes of the liquidation, the end of Ben Bernanke's quantitative … [Read more...]

March 17, 2011 – The True Story on Nuclear Power

Featured Trades: (NUCLEAR POWER STOCKS), (CCJ), (NLR), (GE)   2) The True Story on Nuclear Power. Having once worked for the Atomic Energy Commission at the Nuclear Test Site in Nevada, I do have some insights into the melt down at Fukushima. The media is wallowing in an orgy of misinformation that is approaching epic proportions. This is what happens when you rely … [Read more...]

March 17, 2011 – The Volatility Spike

Featured Trades: (THE VOLATILITY SPIKE), (VIX)   3) The Volatility Spike. For those of you who have not seen a volatility spike happen before, this is what it looks like up close and ugly. This is why many hedge funds keep a long volatility position on their back book as a kind of diaster insurance. Well, the rainy day have arrived. Those who took my advice to buy … [Read more...]

March 17, 2011 – Quote of the Day

'ECB president Jean-Claude Trichet is dangerous. It is ridiculous to talk about raising rates when these countries are so weak. You really only have a recovery in one country, and that is in Germany,' said my old mentor, Barton Biggs, founder and managing partner of the giant hedge fund Traxis Partners. … [Read more...]

March 16, 2011 – April 8 Paris Strategy Luncheon

Featured Trades: (PARIS STRATEGY LUNCHEON) Note To Subscribers: For anyone who upgrades from the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader daily newsletter to the Macro Millionaire trading service this month, the first $100 will be donated to the Japanese Red Cross for earthquake relief. I have been in touch with its officials and the money is sorely needed. Thanks for … [Read more...]

March 16, 2011 – Rampant Wage Inflation Strikes China

Featured Trades: (INFLATION IN CHINA)   3) Rampant Wage Inflation Strikes China. I rely on hundreds of 'moles' around the world whose job it is to watch a single, but important indicator for the world economy. One of them checks for me the want ads in the manufacturing mega city of Shensen, China, and what he told me last week was alarming. Wage demands by Chinese … [Read more...]

March 14, 2011 – Emergency Japanese Earthquake Update

EMERGENCY JAPAN EARTHQUAKE UPDATE Featured Trades: (EWJ), (FXY), (YCS), (TLT), (SPY), (VIX), (USO)   1) I just got off the phone with several frightened, somewhat dazed survivors of the Japanese earthquake who work in the financial markets, and I thought it important to immediately pass on what they said. Some were clearly terrified. Japan's economic … [Read more...]

March 11, 2011 – April 4 London, England Strategy Luncheon

Featured Trades: (LONDON STRATEGY LUNCHEON)   1) April 4 London, England Strategy Luncheon. Come join me for lunch at the Mad Hedge Fund Trader's Global Strategy Update, which I will be conducting in London, England on Monday, April 4, 2011. A three course lunch will be followed by a 45 minute PowerPoint presentation and a 45 minute question and answer … [Read more...]

March 11, 2011 – Roll Call of the Dead

Featured Trades: (ROLL CALL OF THE DEAD), (SPX), (QQQQ), (EEM), (EFA)   3) Roll Call of the Dead. I guess that market didn't like my prediction yesterday that they were gearing up for a sell off (click here for 'Are the Equity Markets Headed for a Fall'). What a difference a day makes! Today, the number of indices that have broken 50 day moving averages is really … [Read more...]

March 10, 2011 – Are the Equity Markets Headed For a Fall?

Featured Trades: (ARE THE EQUITY MARKETS HEADED FOR A FALL?) 1) Are the Equity Markets Headed For a Fall? On this two year anniversary of the great bull market, one has to ask if it is about to die of old age. Take a look at the chart below showing investor sentiment. The last time it was this high was the end of 2007, not exactly a great time to load the boat with … [Read more...]

March 10, 2011 – A Different View of the US

Featured Trades: (A DIFFERENT VIEW OF THE US)   2) A Different View of the US. My mother lives in Pakistan, my daughter in Greece, and I have a ski chalet in in Peru. What's more, I have strategy luncheons planned for Australia, Thailand, and Turkey. At least these would be my conclusions after looking at a map prepared by The Economist of the United States, … [Read more...]

March 10, 2011 – A Touchdown for USC

Featured Trades: (A TOUCHDOWN FOR USC)   3) A Touchdown for USC. My alma mater, the University of Southern California (one of my several alma maters) announced in a full page ad in the New York Times today that they had received their largest private donation in their history. As a third generation alumni of this fanatical football factory (I went to school with Mark … [Read more...]

March 9, 2011 – Why Oil Will Peak on Friday

Featured Trades: (WHY OIL WILL PEAK ON FRIDAY)   1) Why Oil Will Peak on Friday.  Texas tea has undergone the perfect storm over the past month, with the Middle Eastern dominoes falling one by one. It was the worst case scenario times five, and all of a sudden my once outrageous claim that crude would hit $100/barrel by the end of first quarter seemed positively … [Read more...]

March 9, 2011 – Next Stop $50 for Silver

Featured Trades: (NEXT STOP $50 FOR SILVER), (CDE), (SLV), (AGQ), (SLW)   2) Next Stop $50 for Silver. Last week, I saw silver rise $1 in one day. I remember when the white metal's total cost was $1! When I urged readers three years ago to load up on silver at $10 because it was headed to $50, peopled insisted that I was insane. Now that we are ticking at $36, it … [Read more...]

March 8, 2011 – Taking a Bite Out of Stealth Inflation

Featured Trades: (TAKING A BITE OUT OF STEALTH INFLATION) 1) Taking a Bite Out of Stealth Inflation.  When I visited the local Safeway over the weekend, I was snared by some uniformed pre-teens, backed by beaming mothers behind a card table selling Girl Scout cookies.  I was a pushover. I walked away with a bag of Thin Mints, Lemon Chalet Cremes, Do-Si-Dos, and … [Read more...]

March 7, 2011 – Thoughts on Oil and the Economy

Featured Trades: (THOUGHTS ON OIL AND THE ECONOMY) 1) Thoughts on Oil and the Economy. If at the beginning of the year I had told you that oil would go well above $100/barrel within two months, there would be a civil war in Libya, and the stock market would hit a new three year high, you would have immediately canceled your subscription to this newsletter and … [Read more...]

March 7, 2011 – The February Nonfarm Payroll

Featured Trades: (FEBRUARY NONFARM PAYROLL)   3) The February Nonfarm Payroll. President Obama's political advisors were no doubt popping the champagne bottles on Friday morning when the February nonfarm payroll showed a gain of 192,000. It was the best report in two years. The headline unemployment rate handily dropped from 9.0% to 8.9%. The December and January … [Read more...]

March 4, 2011 – Oil’s Big Push on Corn

Featured Trades: (OIL'S BIG PUSH ON CORN), (CORN), (DBA), (ADM), (JJG)   2) Oil's Big Push on Corn. You would think that with oil crisis levitating over $100/barrel and gasoline continuing its relentless march towards $5/gallon, farmers would be wringing their hands, wondering how they can afford the fuel for their machinery. Not so. The burgeoning demand for … [Read more...]

March 4, 2011 – The Sword Hanging Over the Housing Market

Featured Trades: (THE SWORD HANGING OVER THE HOUSING MARKET)   3) The Sword Hanging Over the Housing Market. Some 97% of the financing for the housing market is about to disappear. That is how much bankrupt federal agencies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are taking down in loan guarantees to the residential housing market. Created in the wake of the Great Depression … [Read more...]

March 3, 2011 – Why Warren Buffet Hates Gold

Featured Trades: (WHY BUFFET HATES GOLD) 1) Why Warren Buffet Hates Gold. The 'Oracle of Omaha' expounded at length today on why he despises the barbarous relic. The sage doesn't really care if the yellow metal hit an all-time high today of $1,440. He sees it primarily as a bet on fear. If investors are more afraid in a year than they are today, then … [Read more...]

March 3, 2011 – Conspiracy Theory of the Day

Featured Trades: (CONSPIRACY THEORY OF THE DAY)   2) Conspiracy Theory of the Day. A confidential report from the Pentagon just made public says that the 2008 financial crisis was the result of targeted attacks by terrorists groups. A ramp up of oil prices that began in 2007 led to the bear raids against Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers in 2008. The final phase may … [Read more...]

March 3, 2011 – Watch Out for the Millennial Voter

Featured Trades: (MILLENIAL VOTERS)   3) Watch Out for the Millennial Voter.  I have been banging the table for years now about the importance of demographic trends for the economy, the financial markets, and the housing market. Well, politics is no different, as the table below of Obama's approval rating shows. Millennials, who are now aged 18-29 (I have three of … [Read more...]

March 2, 2011 – Investors Will Win the ETF Price War

SPECIAL END OF THE MUTUAL FUND ISSUE Featured Trades: (ETF PRICE WAR) 1) Investors Will Win the ETF Price War. Many hedge fund traders are unhappy about the current near monopoly enjoyed by the top three ETF issuers, Black Rock, State Street, and Vanguard, which control 83% of the market. At last count more than 1,100 ETF's were capitalized at more than $1 … [Read more...]

March 2, 2011 – Bidding for the Stars

SPECIAL END OF THE MUTUAL FUND ISSUE Featured Trades: (BIDDING FOR THE STARS)   3) Bidding for the Stars. A few years ago, I went to a charity fund raiser at San Francisco's priciest jewelry store, Shreve & Co., where the well-heeled men bid for dates with the local high society beauties, dripping in diamonds and Channel No. 5. Well fueled with champagne, I … [Read more...]

March 2, 2011 – The Death of the Mutual Fund

SPECIAL END OF THE MUTUAL FUND ISSUE Featured Trades: (DEATH OF THE MUTUAL FUND)   4) The Death of the Mutual Fund. ETF's are much more attractive than mutual fund competitors, with their notoriously bloated expenses and spendthrift marketing costs. You can't miss those glitzy, overproduced, big budget ads on TV for a multitude of mutual fund families. You know, … [Read more...]