May 31, 2011 – When to Buy Japan?

Featured Trades: (IS JAPAN GETTING READY TO BLOOM?), (TM), (NSANY), (FANUY), (CAJ), (KMTUY), (FXJ),(YCS)   1) When to Buy Japan? It has been three months since the horrific Japanese tsunami, the economy is in free fall, and radiation is still lingering in the air and water. It now appears that the beleaguered nation's GDP shrank at a 4% rate, in line with my own … [Read more...]

May 31, 2011 – 'RISK OFF' Takes a Break

Featured Trades: ('RISK OFF' TAKES A BREAK)   2) 'RISK OFF' Takes a Break. If you had to pick a point where the 'RISK OFF' trade takes a short break, it would be right here. One month into the strategy, and virtually all asset classes have hit key points where you would naturally expect some serious resistance, which you never break on the … [Read more...]

May 27, 2011 – The Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s July 18 Chicago Strategy Luncheon

Featured Trades: (CHICAGO STRATEGY LUNCHEON)   1) The Mad Hedge Fund Trader's July 18 Chicago Strategy Luncheon. Come join me for lunch for the Mad Hedge Fund Trader's Global Strategy Update, which I will be conducting in Chicago on Thursday, July 18, 2010. A three course lunch will be followed by a 30 minute PowerPoint presentation and a one hour question and … [Read more...]

May 27, 2011 – The Battle of the 100 Day Moving Average

Featured Trades: (THE BATTLE OF THE 100 DAY MOVING AVERAGE)   2) The Battle of the 100 Day Moving Average. Take a look at the chart below from StockCharts.com and it is clear that the line in the sand for the stock market is the 100 day moving average at 1,312. I have noticed an interesting pattern that trading has fallen into since stocks peaked on April 29. All … [Read more...]

May 26, 2011 – The July 7 Los Angeles Strategy Luncheon

Featured Trades: (LOS ANGELES STRATEGY LUNCHEON)   1) The July 7 Los Angeles Strategy Luncheon. Come join me for lunch for the Mad Hedge Fund Trader's Global Strategy Update, which I will be conducting in Los Angeles on Thursday, July 7, 2011 at 12:00 noon. A three course lunch will be followed by a 30 minute PowerPoint presentation and a 45 minute question and … [Read more...]

May 25, 2011 – Revisiting the First Silver Bubble

Featured Trades: (REVISITNG THE FIRST SILVER BUBBLE), (SLV)   1) Revisiting the First Silver Bubble. With smoke still rising from the ruins of the recent silver crash, I thought I'd touch base with a wizened and grizzled old veteran who still remembered the last time a bubble popped for the white metal. That would be Mike Robertson, who runs Robertson Wealth … [Read more...]

May 25, 2011 – The Vultures are Circling Around the Euro

Featured Trades: (THE VULTURES ARE CIRCLING AROUND THE EURO), (FXE), (EUO)   2) The Vultures are Circling Around the Euro. It has not been a great week for the beleaguered European currency (FXE), (EUO). The chickens, no, make that vultures, are coming home to roost. Belgian and Spanish debt has been downgraded. The UK's debt is under review. The ratings … [Read more...]

May 25, 2011 – How’s That ‘RISK OFF’ Trade Working?

Featured Trades: (HOW'S THAT RISK OFF TRADE WORKING?), (SPX), (SDS), (GLD), (USO), (DUG), (TLT), (TBT), (FCX), (CU)   3) How's That 'RISK OFF' Trade Working? Take a look at the chart below since I made my watershed call to put on a 'RISK OFF' portfolio on April 25 (click here for the link). Almost all ass asset classes peaked exactly four days later. You may … [Read more...]

May 24, 2011 – QE3 Has Already Started

Featured Trades: (QE3 HAS ALREADY STARTED)   2) QE3 Has Already Started. Most analysts have missed the fact that QE3 has already started in earnest. Of course, it would have been easy to miss. Ben Bernanke has not made any grand pronouncements. He hasn't done some public thinking out loud, as he did among friends at Jackson Hole, Wyoming last August. It is not … [Read more...]

May 23, 2011 – The S&P 500 in 2020

Featured Trades: (THE S&P 500 IN 2020)   2) The S&P 500 in 2020. Dr. Robert Shiller certainly knows which end of a PE multiple to hold up. He is one of the few economists out there who has produced the sort of long term historical and mathematical analysis of financial valuations that is rare on Wall Street. Among his many claims to fame was his forecast … [Read more...]

May 23, 2011 – The Bear Case for Oil

Featured Trades: (THE BEAR CASE FOR OIL), (USO), (DUG)   3) The Bear Case for Oil. Let's do some out of the box thinking here. Let's say that the global economy is really slowing down. The demand for oil will fall. Let's say that China continues to raise interest rates, slowing its economy further. Then Chinese oil demand starts to wane. Then we bring … [Read more...]

May 20, 2011 – The Glencore Effect

Featured Trades: (THE GLENCORE EFFECT), (BLK), (RENN), (LNKD)   3) The Glencore Effect. One of the greatest indicators that the music has stopped playing, the fat lady is singing, and it is time to get out of Dodge City, is the level of insider selling. Given the recent hyperactivity of the IPO calendar, it's looking like it is a great time to take off on a long … [Read more...]

May 19, 2011 – Last Chance to Attend The Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s May 20 San Francisco Strategy Luncheon

Featured Trades: (SAN FRANCISCO STRATEGY LUNCHEON)   Last Chance to Attend The Mad Hedge Fund Trader's May 20 San Francisco Strategy Luncheon. Come join me for lunch for the Mad Hedge Fund Trader's Global Strategy Update, which I will be conducting in San Francisco, California tomorrow, May 20, 2011. A three course lunch will be followed by a 30 minute … [Read more...]

May 19, 2011 – Become My Facebook Friend

Featured Trades: (BECOME MY FACEBOOK FRIEND) 2) Become My Facebook Friend. If you would like to get a free headline service from the Diary of the Mad Hedge Fund Trader, then please join my 779 friends! Every day we are posting headlines along with featured trades on our Facebook page. As soon as you open your own Facebook page, you will receive our latest headlines as … [Read more...]

May 19, 2011 – Elliott Wave’s Grim Message

Featured Trades: (ELIOT WAVE'S GRIM MESSAGE), (SPX)   3) Eliot Wave's Grim Message. Regular readers are well aware that I rely on John Murphy and Arthur Hill at StockCharts .com for top drawer technical analysis of the financial markets. Lately they have been knocking the ball out of the park, pumping out indicators that global markets were topping and that risk was … [Read more...]

May 18, 2011 -They're Shooting All the Generals

Featured Trades: (THEY'RE SHOOTING ALL THE GENERALS), (GS), (AAPL), (FCX), (GOOG) 1) They're Shooting All the Generals. Those looking for guidance on the medium term trend in the market better take a look at the best of breed, benchmark stocks for the leading sectors; the companies traders call 'the generals'. I am talking about Goldman Sacks (GS), … [Read more...]

May 18, 2011 -Taking Aim at the Small Caps

Featured Trades: (TAKING AIM AT SMALL CAPS)   2) Taking Aim at the Small Caps. One of the cardinal rules of any hedge fund manager is to buy the cheapest assets in the world, and go short the most expensive assets against them. In a perfect world your longs go up, your shorts go down, and you make a bundle of money. If we are seeing a slowdown in the US economy, … [Read more...]

May 17, 2011 – Last Chance to Attend The Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s May 20 San Francisco Strategy Luncheon

Featured Trades: (SAN FRANCISCO STRATEGY LUNCHEON)   1) Last Chance to Attend The Mad Hedge Fund Trader's May 20 San Francisco Strategy Luncheon. Come join me for lunch for the Mad Hedge Fund Trader's Global Strategy Update, which I will be conducting in San Francisco, California on May 20, 2011. A three course lunch will be followed by a 30 minute PowerPoint … [Read more...]

May 17, 2011 – Chewing the Fat With Harry S. Dent

Featured Trades: (CHEWING THE FAT WITH HARRY S. DENT)   2) Chewing the Fat With Harry S. Dent. Given the fresh dose of uncertainty besieging the markets these days, I thought I'd touch base with my pal, co-conspiring Eagle Scout, and fellow traveler, Harry S. Dent. Harry runs an independent research boutique, which has accurately predicted many of the major moves … [Read more...]

May 17, 2011 – Airline Stocks Are Cleared for Takeoff

Featured Trades: (AIRLINES STOCKS ARE CLEARED FOR TAKEOFF)   3) Airline Stocks Are Cleared for Takeoff. The checklist is complete, the IFR clearance is in hand, and it is now time to push the throttles to the firewall for the airline stocks. I almost never remind readers of past trade recommendations which came good, but this time I think I'll make a rare … [Read more...]

May 17, 2011 – European Style Homeland Security

Featured Trades: (EUROPEAN STYLE HOMELAND SECURITY)   4) European Style Homeland Security. The English are feeling the pinch in relation to recent events in Libya, and have therefore raised their security level from "Miffed" to "Peeved." Soon, though, security levels may be raised yet again to "Irritated" or even "A Bit Cross." The English have not been "A Bit Cross" … [Read more...]

May 16, 2011 – The Markets Are On a Knife Edge

Featured Trades: (THE MARKETS ARE ON A KNIFE EDGE) 1) The Markets Are On a Knife Edge. All global asset classes are within a hair's breadth of completely breaking down. The S&P 500 sits perilously on its neckline. Just below here there are a ton of sell stops that could pare 5% off the index very rapidly. The more volatile and leading emerging market ETF … [Read more...]

May 16, 2011 – The Corn Conundrum

Featured Trades: (THE CORN CONUNDRUM), (JJG), (DBA), (CORN)   2) The Corn Conundrum. In the days of olde, the prices of agricultural commodities were determined by the birds, the bees, and Mother Nature. No more. The Mississippi River basin is suffering once in a century floods, thousands of acres of farmland have been destroyed, and those still in operation are … [Read more...]

May 13, 2011 – This Chart Keeps Me Awake at Night

Featured Trades: (THIS CHART KEEPS ME AWAKE AT NIGHT) 2) This Chart Keeps Me Awake at Night. The forest and the trees are the constant dilemma facing traders on hedge fund desks, the exchange floor, the commodities pits, or behind PC's at home. While spending all day focusing intently on the tree in front of them with a magnifying glass, they miss the fact that a … [Read more...]

May 13, 2011 – A Review of the Gold Fundamentals

Featured Trades: (A REVIEW OF THE GOLD FUNDAMENTALS), (WORLD GOLD COUNCIL), (GLD), (ABX)   3) A Review of the Gold Fundamentals. With gold crashing through to $1,500 this morning, I thought that I would once against re-examine the fundamentals for the barbarous relic. That is most easily done by reading the Q1 report from the World Gold Council, the final authority … [Read more...]

May 12, 2011 – Trade School

Featured Trades: (TRADE SCHOOL) , (SPY),   1) Trade School. I fielded a lot of questions at yesterday's Macro Millionaire webinar on how I was able to make so much money with small positions. As of today, the year to date theoretical returns for the model portfolio is 34%, putting it in the top 1% of all hedge fund performance, and most of the time I have been … [Read more...]

May 12, 2011 – Give Dr. Copper an A+ for Accuracy

Featured Trades: (COPPER), (CU), (CAT), (FCX)   2) Give Dr. Copper an A+ for Accuracy. No one has been singing louder the praises of the predictive power of copper prices (CU) louder than me this year. They call the red metal 'Dr. Copper' because of its uncanny ability to forecast the future direction of the global economy. Look at the charts below and it is … [Read more...]

May 11, 2011 – Only Two More Weeks Until The Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s May 20 San Francisco Strategy Luncheon

Featured Trades: (SAN FRANCISCO STRATEGY LUNCHEON)   1) Only Two More Weeks Until The Mad Hedge Fund Trader's May 20 San Francisco Strategy Luncheon. Come join me for lunch for the Mad Hedge Fund Trader's Global Strategy Update, which I will be conducting in San Francisco, California on May 20, 2011. A three course lunch will be followed by a 30 minute PowerPoint … [Read more...]

May 11, 2011 – How to Build a Top

Featured Trades: (HOW TO BUILD A TOP), (QQQ), (XLF), (SPX)   2) How to Build a Top. Yes, we are all in the instant gratification business. We all want to ride an uptrend for nine months, sell at the top tick, and stay short for the entire four month selloff that ensues. In real life, it really only happens in the movies. If someone tells you they actually did this, … [Read more...]

May 11, 2011 – From Bad to Worse for the Euro

Featured Trades: (FROM BAD TO WORSE FOR THE EURO), (FXE), (EUO), (UUP)   3) From Bad to Worse for the Euro. I am going to take a profit here in my short position in the euro by selling my (FXE) September, 2011 $145 puts. I don't double my capital in two days very often. When I do, I am inclined to grab it by the lapels and shake it until its gold teeth come … [Read more...]

May 10, 2011 – Lunch With Leslie Hinton of Dow Jones

Featured Trades: (LUNCH WITH DOW JONES)   1) Lunch With Leslie Hinton of Dow Jones. I managed to catch a lunch with Leslie Hinton, the CEO of Dow, Jones, Inc. as he swung through San Francisco to meet with major advertisers. Hinton was installed in the top job by Rupert Murdoch after his $5 billion takeover of the family owned paper on the eve of the financial … [Read more...]

May 10, 2011 – Finally, a Decent Number

Featured Trades: (APRIL NON FARM PAYROLL)   2) Finally, a Decent Number. The April nonfarm payroll showed a gain of  244,000 on Friday, exceeding expectations for the first time in many months. A statistical aberration took the headline unemployment rate back up from 8.9% to 9.0%. February and March were revised up an additional 46,000 jobs. There were substantial … [Read more...]

May 9, 2011 – My Victory Roll

Featured Trades: (MY VICTORY ROLL)   2) My Victory Roll. I am writing this letter at 5:00 AM, holed up in a luxury suite at the Bellagio Hotel in Las Vegas'”still on 'stock market time,' or up four hours earlier than the rest of the country, while everyone else here is sleeping off hangovers. It is a tradition among old traders to perform some ceremony when good … [Read more...]

May 9, 2011 – Taking Another Shot at the Garlic Eaters

Featured Trades: (TAKING ANOTHER SHORT AT THE GARLIC EATERS)   3) Taking Another Shot at the Garlic Eaters. If you have to name one beneficiary of QE2, the collapse of the dollar, and a seemingly never ending 'RISK ON' trade, it has got to be the euro. All of this strength has come from an interest rate differential of a measly 25 basis points over the … [Read more...]

May 6, 2011 – The Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s June 20 Milan, Italy Strategy Luncheon

Featured Trades: (MILAN ITALY STRATEGY LUNCHEON)   1) The Mad Hedge Fund Trader's June 20 Milan, Italy Strategy Luncheon. Come join me for lunch at the Mad Hedge Fund Trader's Global Strategy Update, which I will be conducting in Milan, Italy on June 20, 2011. A three course lunch will be followed by a 30 minute PowerPoint presentation and a 45 minute question … [Read more...]

May 6, 2011 – More Proof That the Stock Market is Topping

Featured Trades: (MORE PROOF THAT THE MARJET IS TOPPING)   2) More Proof That the Stock Market is Topping. If you are looking for more proof that the markets are topping, take a look at the two sector charts of industry leaders below. The SPDR (XLE) energy ETF has been one of the bull market's leaders, but has a clear double top developing. Close a few more … [Read more...]

May 5, 2011 – The Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s June 22 Geneva, Switzerland Global Strategy Luncheon

Featured Trades: (GENEVA STRATEGY LUNCHEON) 1) The Mad Hedge Fund Trader's June 22 Geneva, Switzerland Global Strategy Luncheon. Come join me for lunch for the Mad Hedge Fund Trader's Global Strategy Update, which I will be conducting in Geneva, Switzerland on Wednesday, June 22, 2011. A three course lunch will be followed by a 30 minute PowerPoint presentation and a … [Read more...]

May 5, 2011 – Why I Am Selling the Market Here

Featured Trades: (WHY I'M SELLING THE MARKET), (SPY), (SPX), (SDS), (TLT), (DIG), (FXE), (UUP), (GLD), (SLV)   2) Why I Am Selling the Market Here. I have started batting out short positions as fast as the market can field them. To be more specific, I am buying puts and selling calls on the S&P 500 (SPX), loading the boat with the double short ETF (SDS), and … [Read more...]

May 5, 2011 – Macro Millionaire Hits New High

Featured Trades: (MACRO MILLIONAIRE TRADING SERVICE UPDATE)   3) Macro Millionaire Hits New High. For the regular readers of the newsletter only, I thought I'd give you an update on my Macro Millionaire trading and mentoring service. The model portfolio has hit a new high for the year eight out of the last ten trading days, and boasts a 28.04% year to date … [Read more...]

May 4, 2011 – Phoenix Strategy Luncheon Review

Featured Trades: (PHOENIX STRATEGY LUNCHION REVIEW), (FCX)   1) Phoenix Strategy Luncheon Review. The hotel was not hard to find. Just turn right at the cow skull, left at the tall cactus, and head directly towards the abandoned mine. That took me to the luxury resort that was hosting my April 28 strategy luncheon in Phoenix, Arizona. At this point I have … [Read more...]

May 4, 2011 – Breakfast With Fed Governor Bob McTeer

Featured Trades: (BREAKFAST WITH FED GOVERNOR BOB McTEER)   2) Breakfast With Fed Governor Bob McTeer. No one can explain the most complex economic and monetary issues in a simpler, more homespun fashion than former governor of the Federal Reserve, Bob McTeer. He is known for carrying around two yard sticks, one slightly longer than the other, to demonstrate to your … [Read more...]

May 4, 2011 – Take a Ride in the New Short Junk ETF

Featured Trades: (TAKE A RIDE IN THE NEW SHORT JUNK ETF), (JNK), (SJB), (CORN), (TBT)   3) Take a Ride in the New Short Junk ETF. When you look at the profusion of new ETF's being launched today, you find that they almost always correspond with market tops. The higher the market, the greater the demand for the underlying, and the more leverage traders bay for … [Read more...]

May 3, 2011 – A Day With Harry S. Dent

Featured Trades: (A DAY WITH HARRY S. DENT), (STOCKS), (SPX), (QQQ), (EEM), (BONDS), (TLT), (JNK), (TBT), (DOLLAR), (UUP), (FXE), (OIL), (USO), (DIG), (PRECIOUS METALS), (GLD), (SLV), (DENT)   1) A Day With Harry S. Dent. I listen to Harry S. Dent, not because he is an iconoclast, one of the few original thinkers out there, and a complete wild man, although these … [Read more...]

May 2, 2011 – The Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s May 20 San Francisco Strategy Luncheon

Featured Trades: (SAN FRANCISCO STRATEGY LUNCHEON) 1) The Mad Hedge Fund Trader's May 20 San Francisco Strategy Luncheon. Come join me for lunch for the Mad Hedge Fund Trader's Global Strategy Update, which I will be conducting in San Francisco, California on May 20, 2011. A three course lunch will be followed by a 30 minute PowerPoint presentation and a 45 minute … [Read more...]

May 2, 2011 – The Economic Headwinds Are Coming

Featured Trades: (ECONOMIC HEADWINDS ARE COMING)   2) The Economic Headwinds Are Coming. I have followed David Hale's prognostications about the global economy for two decades, and have always found his views insightful, if not useful. Although based in Chicago (click here for his site), he is almost permanently on the road, consulting with foreign governments, major … [Read more...]

May 2, 2011 – An Evening With Travel Guru Arthur Frommer

Featured Trades: (TRAVEL GURU ARTHUR FROMMER)   4) An Evening With Travel Guru Arthur Frommer. When I backpacked around Europe in 1968, I relied heavily on Arthur Frommer's paperback guide, Europe on $5 a Day, which then boasted a cult like following among impoverished, but adventurous Americans. Over the following years he directed me down cobblestoned … [Read more...]