Archive | April, 2012

Case Shiller Says the Bottom is Not In for Real Estate

As much as my real estate broker insists that the bottom is in for residential real estate, the raw and unvarnished data still does not support that belief. This morning, the February S&P 500 Case Shiller real estate index put in new lows for nine major markets, as well as for both composite indexes. Overall, […]

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April 25, 2012 – Quote of the Day

“With slowing growth in the US and no growth in Europe, you are going to have to shave a few percentage points off of growth in China. If you look at the chessboard as a retail investor, we have a year or more in a sideways to down stock market,” said Dr. Peter Navarro, a […]

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Trade Alert – (FXY) April 24, 2012

As a potentially profitable opportunity presents itself, John will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what should be bought, when to buy it, and at what price.

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The Next Two Weekly Jobless Figures Are Crucial

All eyes will be focused on the weekly jobless claims to be released by the Department of Labor at 8:30 AM EST on Thursday. You may recall that investors did not exactly run the last two weekly reports up the flagpole and salute them, which showed sharp increases in unemployment claims. At this point the […]

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Your Wealth and the French Election Results

It would be easy to ignore what is happening on the other side of the world, especially when they involve the French. But to do so today in this interconnected and interdependent world would be extremely hazardous to your wealth. When a butterfly flaps its wings in Brazil, the tsunami hits Japan. That is exactly […]

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China’s View of China

I ran into Minxin Pei, a scholar at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Who imparted to me some iconoclastic out of consensus views on China’s position in the world today. He thinks that power is not shifting from West to East; Asia is just lifting itself off the mat, with per capita GDP only […]

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April 24, 2012 – Quote of the Day

“They got us into this mess, they’ve gotten great credit for getting out of this mess, and now they are creating even a bigger mess,” said the former chairman of Morgan Stanley International and a colleague of mine, Steve Roach.

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Closing My Apple Position

My Apple April $450-$480 call spread expired deep in the money at the close on Friday. Legally, these expire at midnight on Saturday night, so your broker won’t take these off your statement until the following Monday. The position should be zeroed out and you should receive a cash credit. You will also find that […]

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This is What a Lost Decade Gets You

With all of the handwringing about the zero return on US equities for the last decade, I thought I’d better take a look at the long term charts. It’s very clear that we have been trading in a gigantic sideways narrowing wedge for the last 18 years, defined by 14,000 on the upside and 6,000 […]

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China’s Coming Demographic Nightmare

Thanks to China’s “one child only” policy adopted 30 years ago, and a cultural preference for children who grow up to become family safety nets, there are now 32 million more boys under the age of 20 than girls. Large scale interference with the natural male:female ratio has been tracked with some fascination by demographers […]

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April 23, 2012 – Quote of the Day

“The US has repositioned itself better than any of its global competitors. Americans are doing what they do best. They’re adapting, they’re moving, they’re finding good, and they’re surviving. That’s where we need to be,” said Tom Barrack, CEO of Colony Capital, and a former principal of the Bass Group.

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The Race Towards the Year End Fiscal Cliff

After spending all of this year ignoring the fiscal disaster that the US is facing at the end of 2012, markets are finally taking off the blinders. That might explain why the S&P 500 has dropped 4.3% so far from its April 1 peak and why it may have more to come. Remember the debt […]

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Another Alarm Bell

I am a numbers guy. Show me the data and I’ll draw my own conclusions, ignoring conflicted brokerage research, the paid talking heads on TV, and all the politically motivated garbage pumped out by industry sponsored fake research institutes. I am also a glass half full kind of guy, willing to make a positive interpretation […]

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Who the Electric Car Helps and Hurts

With gasoline prices staying stubbornly high, the number of hybrid and electric cars manufactured is soaring skyward. Toyota Motors (TM) is far and away the biggest beneficiary as the world’s largest manufacturer of hybrid cars with its Prius family that now extends to five models. Nissan Motors (NSANY) is expected to complete construction of a […]

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April 20, 2012 – Quote of the Day

“The biggest tumor that we are now facing for the economy is the shadow inventory of housing. We now have six million units that are delinquent, in default, or foreclosed, and 15 million other units for sale. Demographic demand can only soak up one million units a year. It is the biggest dilemma for homeowners,” […]

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