SOLD OUT — October 19, 2012 Washington DC Strategy Luncheon

Capitol

Come join me for lunch for the Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Global Strategy Update, which I will be conducting in Washington DC at noon on Friday, October 19, 2012. A three course lunch will be followed by a PowerPoint presentation and an extended question and answer period. I’ll be giving you my up-to-date view on stocks, bonds, currencies, commodities, precious metals, and real … [Read more...]

Order Execution 101

fish

Given the sudden uptick in trade alerts I have been sending out to my Global Trading Dispatch subscribers, some 60 since August 10, I have been inundated with requests for how to execute these. So I thought I’d take some time today to expound on the basics of order execution 101. There are three basic ways to intelligently get an order into the market: 1) The No Brainer … [Read more...]

Trade Alert – (USO) September 26, 2012

Alert

As a potentially profitable opportunity presents itself, John will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what should be bought, when to buy it, and at what price. … [Read more...]

Bernanke’s Stake Through Romney’s Heart.

Romney-angry

I can just imagine how Ben Bernanke’s announcement of QE3 went down at Mitt Romney’s campaign headquarters in Massachusetts last week. Doors slammed, heads pounded against walls, and hair was torn out. You can almost hear the whoosh of resume’s flying down to conservative think tanks on Washington DC’s “K” street as campaign workers scramble to find post-election employment. … [Read more...]

September 26, 2012 — Quote of the Day.

“The nice thing about gold is that it has no PE multiple. Because it earns and yields nothing, gold is a speculation on the systematic debasement of currencies by central banks,” said Jim Grant of Grant’s Interest Rate Observer. … [Read more...]

SOLD OUT — September 28, 2012 Las Vegas Strategy Luncheon

las-vegas-welcome-sign

Come join me for lunch for the Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Global Strategy Update, which I will be conducting in Las Vegas, Nevada on Friday, September 28, 2012. A three-course lunch will be followed by a PowerPoint presentation and an extended question-and-answer period. I’ll be giving you my up-to-date view on stocks, bonds, currencies, commodities, precious metals, and real … [Read more...]

Oil is Not Looking So Hot.

OIL2

I received another one of those scratchy cell phone calls from my friend in the West Texas oil patch. You could almost feel the dust coming through the ether. He said that while Ben Bernanke his committed to buying $40 billion a month of mortgage-backed securities as part of QE3, he has not promised to buy a single barrel of oil. This is bad for oil. That means Texas Tea has … [Read more...]

September 25, 2012 — Quote of the Day.

“China is the classic emerging market roach motel, except it’s a really big one. It is very difficult to earn adequate returns on capital and to get your capital back as a westerner,” said Jim Chanos of hedge fund Kynikos Associates.   … [Read more...]

Testimonial.

overw-1

Thank you so much for the newsletter you sent out – I really enjoyed reading it. You’ve got quite a unique and engaging style as a writer, world traveler/lecturer and of course, trader. I’m glad to see your performance numbers catapulted you to the top percentile of the hedge fund ranks – all the best on your future endeavors. Noemi San Jose, CA   … [Read more...]

Don’t Miss the Big Show in Silver.

silverdollar_zps6afb22b7

Those transfixed by gold blasting through the $1,750 level have been missing the real action in silver. The white metal has soared 34% to $34 since the beginning of the year, compared to only a 14% move for the barbaric relic, an outperformance of 2.4 to one. I have been a raging bull on the precious metals space since early August. Silver gives you additional diversification … [Read more...]

Revisiting the First Silver Bubble.

hunt_zps9fc0fcad

With silver back in the headlines, I thought I'd touch base with a wizened and grizzled old veteran who still remembers the last time the biggest bubble in history popped for the white metal. That would be Mike Robertson, who runs Robertson Wealth Management, one of the largest and most successful registered investment advisors in the country. Mike is the last surviving … [Read more...]

September 24, 2012 — Quote of the Day

“There’s no exit. I think it’s more likely that the Fed buys all the Treasury bonds that exist than to work the opposite direction and start selling them. I have no concept of what the Fed exit strategy is going to look like. It’s way out in the future,” said Jeffrey Gundlach, CEO of fixed income manager Doubleline. … [Read more...]

Trade Alert – (USO) September 21, 2012

slider-05-trader-alert

As a potentially profitable opportunity presents itself, John will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what should be bought, when to buy it, and at what price. This is your chance to ‘look over’ John Thomas’ shoulder as he gives you unparalleled insight on major world financial trends BEFORE they happen. … [Read more...]

Trade Alert – (SLV) September 21, 2012

Alert

As a potentially profitable opportunity presents itself, John will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what should be bought, when to buy it, and at what price. … [Read more...]

Don’t Miss the September 26 Global Strategy Webinar.

Robin Williams

My next global strategy webinar will be held on Wednesday, September 12 at 12:00 noon EST. This webinar will be broadcast from back home in San Francisco, so everything should work. I’ll be giving you my updated outlook on stocks, bonds, commodities, currencies, precious metal, and real estate. The goal is to find the cheapest assets in the world to buy, the most expensive … [Read more...]

The 30-Year View on What’s Happening Today.

Bubble Dude

Take a look at the 30 year chart of the S&P 500 below, and it’s clear that the market is approaching a critical juncture. With the closely watched index closing at 1,460 today, we are a mere 140 points from the iron ceiling that has been unassailable for the past 13 years. The chart is a roll call of past disasters for American investors. The 2000 peak was the apex of … [Read more...]

Trade Alert – (GOOG) September 20, 2012

Alert

As a potentially profitable opportunity presents itself, John will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what should be bought, when to buy it, and at what price. This is your chance to ‘look over’ John Thomas’ shoulder as he gives you unparalleled insight on major world financial trends BEFORE they happen. … [Read more...]

Get the Most Bank Per Buck From my Research.

najarian2_zpsd7e4d811

Sometimes market moves call for options, and I’ve used a lot of them recently. Can options be profitable? The proof is in the pudding as my strategies have paid off handsomely. However, I do get a lot of questions about option strategies and how best to place trades. In an effort to help my readers improve their profits I have scheduled an options training seminar for the first … [Read more...]

Why Apple May Go Ballistic.

iphone_zps1deab149

I went into my local Apple store last week to buy an iPhone 5 to replace my aging iPhone 4s. The sales girl looked at me like I was out of my mind. She gave me a website address where I could pre-order and said good luck. I found out later that the company sold a stunning 2 million units in pre-orders in 24 hours. That’s nearly a billion dollars in revenue. Wow! I went back … [Read more...]

Trade Alert – (GLD) September 19, 2012

Alert

As a potentially profitable opportunity presents itself, John will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what should be bought, when to buy it, and at what price. … [Read more...]

If You Had Any Doubts About Gold …

2009201oz20Gold20Eagle20Obv

Since Ben Bernanke’s announcement of QE3 last week, new forecasts for gold have been popping up like acne at a high school prom. They range from the conservative to the absurd, from $1,900 to $55,000. But they all have one thing in common: higher. Before you head down to the local coin store to load up on bags of one ounce American gold eagles, let me go through the simplest of … [Read more...]

Trade Alert – (AAPL) September 19, 2012

slider-05-trader-alert

As a potentially profitable opportunity presents itself, John will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what should be bought, when to buy it, and at what price. This is your chance to ‘look over’ John Thomas’ shoulder as he gives you unparalleled insight on major world financial trends BEFORE they happen. … [Read more...]

The Ultra Bull Case for Gold.

brick

I am constantly barraged with emails from gold bugs who passionately argue that their beloved metal is trading at a tiny fraction of its true value, and that the barbaric relic is really worth $5,000, $10,000, or even $50,000 an ounce (GLD). They claim the move in the yellow metal we are seeing is only the beginning of a 30-fold rise in prices similar to what we saw from 1972 … [Read more...]

Testimonial.

overw-1

I really like your daily take on the markets and world issues. You have earned your stripes over and over. You are a statesman of the money world. I will see you on your next visit to Seattle. Stay safe, Mike Seattle, Washington   … [Read more...]

Emergency Strategy Reversal.

117th_Infantry_North_Carolina_NG_at_St__Vith_1945

I think that Ben Bernanke’s QE3 is such a game changer, that we have to throw all existing strategies into the trash and start all over again from scratch.  Suddenly, investors and traders have to face the prospect of adding $500 billion to $1 trillion to the Fed’s balance sheet, taking it to a record $3.7 trillion.  All of this new money will go into risk assets. This … [Read more...]

September 18, 2012 — Quote of the Day

As opposed to the mentality of the last couple of years where you faded every piece of good news, we may be moving to a period where you fade the bad news because you know there is a clear game plan below it,” Jim O’Neill, chairman of Goldman Sachs International in London.   … [Read more...]

Trade Alert – Emergency Strategy Reversal – September 17, 2012

investing-a-z-stock-market-game-for-students

As a potentially profitable opportunity presents itself, John will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what should be bought, when to buy it, and at what price. This is your chance to ‘look over’ John Thomas’ shoulder as he gives you unparalleled insight on major world financial trends BEFORE they happen. … [Read more...]

Trade Alert – (YCS) September 17, 2012

Alert

As a potentially profitable opportunity presents itself, John will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what should be bought, when to buy it, and at what price. This is your chance to ‘look over’ John Thomas’ shoulder as he gives you unparalleled insight on major world financial trends BEFORE they happen. … [Read more...]

Trade Alert – (SPY) September 17, 2012

slider-05-trader-alert

As a potentially profitable opportunity presents itself, John will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what should be bought, when to buy it, and at what price. … [Read more...]

Trade Alert – (MS) September 17, 2012

Alert

As a potentially profitable opportunity presents itself, John will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what should be bought, when to buy it, and at what price. This is your chance to ‘look over’ John Thomas’ shoulder as he gives you unparalleled insight on major world financial trends BEFORE they happen. … [Read more...]

Buy What Ben’s Buying.

cnut

In view of Federal Reserve Chairman, Ben Bernanke, yesterday:  it is time to reassess one’s investment strategy.  The former Princeton professor didn’t give us QE3, he gave us QE3 with a turbocharger, on steroids, with an extra dose of adrenaline.  He could spend another $1 trillion before all is said and done.  If ever an economic theory was pursued to extremes, this is it. … [Read more...]

Why Ben Bernanke Hates Me.

Marunouchi_after_the_Great_Kanto_Earthquake

I don’t just think he hates me, he truly despises me.  In fact, he does everything he can to put me out of business. Take yesterday, for example, when the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee gave me and my views a complete thrashing.  QE3 was the last thing in the world I was expecting because it was not justified by the current fundamentals.  Most other independent … [Read more...]

QE3 Blows Out Bears.

content_woman-binoculars

The big surprise today was not that the Federal Reserve launched QE3, but the extent of it.  For a start, they moved the “low interest rate” target out to mid-2015.  They left the commitment to bond-buying open-ended.  The first-year commitment came in at $480 billion, in-line with previous efforts. Reading the statement from the Open Market Committee, you can’t imagine a … [Read more...]

The Chinese Are Setting the Gold Market On Fire.

Pacific20111282

My friends in the gold futures puts have been telling me that the Chinese have emerged as major buyers in recent months.  Year-to-date imports have reached 458 tonnes, more than four times the amount during the same period last year – that amounts to $25 billion in real money.  This is on top of the country’s massive local gold production, which is kept entirely in country, the … [Read more...]

Quote of the Day

“We don’t think the economy is going to be overheating anytime soon,” said Federal Reserve Chairman, Ben Bernanke.   … [Read more...]

Trade Alert – (FXA) September 13, 2012

Alert

As a potentially profitable opportunity presents itself, John will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what should be bought, when to buy it, and at what price. … [Read more...]

Raising My Apple Target to $1,600.

T1502306_10

Long-term readers of this letter are well aware of my pleadings with them a couple of years ago to buy Apple (AAPL) stock at $250 with a target of $1,000. Certainly, the 200 readers who work for Apple noticed.  That was back when the main concern about the company was that Steve Jobs would die young. In view of the upgrades present in the iPhone 5 announced today, I am going … [Read more...]

Testimonial.

tired

“First, thanks so much for your Global Trading Dispatch Trade Alert service, which is not only a wealth building tool, but offers a comprehensive trading education.  I sometimes trade your recommendations, and sometimes use your guidance to make more aggressive options and futures plays.  I especially liked your call on gold (GLD).  It’s working very nicely for … [Read more...]

And My Prediction Is…

beatles

Take those predictions, forecasts, and prognostications with so many grains of salt.  They have a notorious track record for being completely wrong, even when made by the leading experts in their fields. In preparing for my autumn lecture series, I came across these following nuggets and thought I’d share them with you – There are some real howlers: 1876 “This 'telephone' … [Read more...]

September 13, 2012 — Quote of the Day

“Facebook was being priced as if it were a beautiful woman without a blemish.  If any kind of blemish appeared, they will kill the stock.  I’d rather own Google or Apple,” said my old friend and former client, Leon Cooperman, CEO of mega hedge fund Omega Advisors. … [Read more...]

September 12, 2012 — Quote of the Day

“This has been the worst year for active managers in history. We have never seen numbers of people missing benchmarks so large. As the markets have moved up, the tracking error has grown. People are missing about a third of the upside in the markets,” said Thomas Lee, a chief equity strategist at JP Morgan.   … [Read more...]

My Fed Call.

ben-bernanke-2

My Fed Call. Survey traders and investors today, and you will find that 99% believe further quantitative easing via QE3 will be announced on Thursday. Poll vote Fed governors and you get a more realistic 50% probability. I think it is much less than that – and therein lies the trade. I think that markets are getting rather over-expended up here. They have been discounting … [Read more...]

Another Trade Alert Service All-Time High.

madhedge4

Global Trading Dispatch’s Trade Alert Service posted a new all-time high yesterday, clocking a 63.2% return since inception. The 2012 YTD return is now at 23.05%. That takes the average annualized return up to 33.3%, ranking it among the top performing hedge funds in the world. Those happy subscribers who bought my service on May 23 have seen an amazing 25 consecutive … [Read more...]

Trade Alert – (FXY) September 11, 2012

Alert

As a potentially profitable opportunity presents itself, John will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what should be bought, when to buy it, and at what price. This is your chance to ‘look over’ John Thomas’ shoulder as he gives you unparalleled insight on major world financial trends BEFORE they happen. … [Read more...]

Trade Alert – (SPY) September 11, 2012

slider-05-trader-alert

As a potentially profitable opportunity presents itself, John will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what should be bought, when to buy it, and at what price. … [Read more...]

Don’t Miss the September 12 Global Strategy Webinar.

radio-2

My next global strategy webinar will be held on Wednesday, September 12 at 12:00 noon EST. This webinar will be broadcast from back home in San Francisco, so everything should work. I’ll be giving you my updated outlook on stocks, bonds, commodities, currencies, precious metals, and real estate. The goal is to find the cheapest assets in the world to buy, the most expensive … [Read more...]

Buy the Big Dip in Gold.

bond

Look at the charts for the barbarous relic below and you can only come to one possible conclusion. If the Federal Reserve disappoints on Thursday, just a little bit, even by a smidgeon, and does not deliver QE3 and gold sells off big, you should jump in and by the stuff like crazy. All of the charts for gold and the derivative plays are showing major breakouts to the upside. … [Read more...]

Trade Alert – (GLD) #2 September 10, 2012

gold20stack

As a potentially profitable opportunity presents itself, John will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what should be bought, when to buy it, and at what price. This is your chance to ‘look over’ John Thomas’ shoulder as he gives you unparalleled insight on major world financial trends BEFORE they happen. … [Read more...]

Trade Alert – (AAPL) September 10, 2012

slider-05-trader-alert

As a potentially profitable opportunity presents itself, John will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what should be bought, when to buy it, and at what price. … [Read more...]

Trade Alert – (GLD) September 10, 2012

Alert

As a potentially profitable opportunity presents itself, John will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what should be bought, when to buy it, and at what price. … [Read more...]

Trade Alert – (TLT) September 10, 2012

slider-05-trader-alert

As a potentially profitable opportunity presents itself, John will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what should be bought, when to buy it, and at what price. … [Read more...]

Trade Alert – (MS) #2 September 10, 2012

Alert

As a potentially profitable opportunity presents itself, John will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what should be bought, when to buy it, and at what price. … [Read more...]

Trade Alert – (MS) #1 September 10, 2012

slider-05-trader-alert

As a potentially profitable opportunity presents itself, John will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what should be bought, when to buy it, and at what price. … [Read more...]

Trade Alert – (SPY) September 10, 2012

Alert

As a potentially profitable opportunity presents itself, John will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what should be bought, when to buy it, and at what price. … [Read more...]

The China News is Big.

A Chinese military delegate to the Natio

NOTE TO READERS: There is a short letter today because I spent the entire weekend writing Trade Alerts, which you will receive right at the Monday morning opening. Last Friday, China announced a $150 billion reflationary public works budget designed to arrest the current free fall in the country’s GDP growth rate. The move came totally out of the blue and caught many China … [Read more...]

Who is Ben Bernanke?

ben-1

Since nothing less than the fate of the free world depends on the judgment of Ben Bernanke these days, I thought I’d touch base with David Wessel, the Wall Street Journal economics editor, who has just published In Fed We Trust: Ben Bernanke’s War on the Great Panic. I doubted David could tell me anything more about the former Princeton professor I didn’t already know. I … [Read more...]

September 10, 2012 – Quote of the Day

“Over the next several years, you will be shocked and surprised at the strength of the emerging Chinese consumer,” said Stephen Roach, the former Chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia. … [Read more...]

Trading 101.

neander

A number of readers have asked me why I’m not trading now. Since I put out my calls to sell Treasury bonds in August (click here for “The Great Treasury Bond Crash of 2010” ), and buy US stocks in September (click here for “My Equity Scenario for the Rest of 2010” ), I have mostly been sitting on my hands. I usually try to catch three or four trend changes a year, which might … [Read more...]

September 7, 2012 – Quote of the Day

bad-economy

“No matter who wins the election, we still have a lot of wood to chop. There is no way we continue to run huge deficits without a severe market consequence,” said my old friend and former client, Leon Cooperman, CEO of mega hedge fund Omega Advisors.     … [Read more...]

Trade Alert – (GLD) September 6, 2012 #2

slider-05-trader-alert

As a potentially profitable opportunity presents itself, John will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what should be bought, when to buy it, and at what price. … [Read more...]

Trade Alert – (GLD) September 6, 2012

how-much-is-gold-worth

As a potentially profitable opportunity presents itself, John will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what should be bought, when to buy it, and at what price. … [Read more...]

Trade Alert – (AAPL) September 6, 2012

Alert

As a potentially profitable opportunity presents itself, John will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what should be bought, when to buy it, and at what price. … [Read more...]

The New California Gold Rush.

gold2-1

The gold rush is back on in California. On my way back from Lake Tahoe recently, I saw that every bend of the American river was dotted with hopeful amateur miners, looking to make a windfall fortune. Weekend hobbyists were there panning away from the banks, while the hardcore pros stood in hip waders balancing portable pumps on truck inner tubes, pouring sand into sluice … [Read more...]

The Best Financial Book Ever.

ferguson

I have just finished reading the best financial book ever, and I have read most of them. It is The Ascent of Money: A Financial History of the World by Harvard professor Niall Ferguson. It gives you a great explanation of how the broad sweep of history delivered us to the doorstep of today’s crisis. Ferguson starts with an ancient accounting system written on clay tablets in … [Read more...]

September 6, 2012 – Quote of the Day

0703a_scary_market_top

“The most expensive advice that you will ever get is to be told at a market top that “This time it’s different,” said Harvard economics professor Kenneth Rogoff   … [Read more...]

Trade Alert – (TLT) September 5, 2012

Alert

As a potentially profitable opportunity presents itself, John will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what should be bought, when to buy it, and at what price. … [Read more...]

Trade Alert – (GLD) September 5, 2012

slider-05-trader-alert

As a potentially profitable opportunity presents itself, John will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what should be bought, when to buy it, and at what price. … [Read more...]

I Can’t Wait Until September 12.

benbernankemariodraghi

Those who have been dying of boredom during August -- the lowest volume, tightest ranging month in many years -- may be about to get their respite. September 12 (or Wednesday next week) offers a potential cornucopia of either fantastically good or terribly bad news, and maybe both. Let me give you a program of the upcoming events on this momentous day: *The German Supreme … [Read more...]

Quit Singing “Waltzing Matilda” in the Shower. Trade Alert:

CrocodileDundeeWithKnife

Sell Short the Currency Shares Australian Dollar Trust October, 2012 (FXA) $105-$108 call spread at $0.35 or best Opening Trade 9-4-2012 – 2:00 PM EST expiration date: October 19, 2012 Portfolio weighting: 10% = 45 contracts on a net delta adjusted basis This is a bet that the Currency Shares Australian Dollar Trust October, 2012 (FXA) trades at or below $105.35 … [Read more...]

A Tribute to a 9/11 Hero.

wtc

With the 11th anniversary of 9/11 a week away, I want to forward the message circulating among past-and-present Morgan Stanley staffers, myself included: As a firm headquartered in New York City, this is always a sobering time for us. For us, we remember those who died and the heroism of many that saved thousands of lives. At Morgan Stanley, Richard "Rick" Rescorla was our … [Read more...]

Trade Alert – (FXA) September 4, 2012

slider-05-trader-alert

As a potentially profitable opportunity presents itself, John will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what should be bought, when to buy it, and at what price. … [Read more...]

Trade Alert – (SPY) Sep. 4, 2012

Alert

As a potentially profitable opportunity presents itself, John will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what should be bought, when to buy it, and at what price. … [Read more...]

Here Comes the Next Peace Dividend.

assad

When communications between intelligence agencies suddenly spike, as has recently been the case, I sit up and take note. Hey, you don't think I talk to all of those generals because I like their snappy uniforms, do you? The word is that the despotic, authoritarian regime in Syria is on the verge of collapse, and is unlikely to survive more than a few more months. The body … [Read more...]

September 4, 2012 – Quote of the Day

high-gas-prices-photo

“For the third year in a row, high oil prices have slowed down the general economy, because disposable income is lost to high gasoline prices,” said John Hofmeister, former CEO of Shell Oil.   … [Read more...]