August 28, 2015

Global Market CommentsAugust 28, 2015Fiat Lux Featured Trade:(STRESS TESTING THE MAD HEDGE FUND TRADER STRATEGY),(SPY), (VIX), (FXY), (TLT), (LEN)(IS THE 30-YEAR MORTGAGE AN ENDANGERED SPECIES?) SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)VOLATILITY S&P 500 (^VIX)CurrencyShares Japanese Yen ETF (FXY)iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT)Lennar Corporation (LEN) … [Read more...]

Stress Testing the Mad Hedge Fund Trader Strategy

John Thomas

It is always a great idea to know how bomb proof your portfolio is. Big hedge funds have teams of MIT educated mathematicians that constantly build models that stress test their holdings for every conceivable outcome. WWIII? A Global pandemic? A 1,000 point flash crash? No problem. Analysts will tell you to the decimal point exactly how trading books will perform in every … [Read more...]

Is the 30-Year Mortgage and Endangered Species?

Home Mansion

One of the great anomalies of the American credit markets has always been the existence of the 30-year fixed rate home mortgage. Long the favorite of homeowners, it has financed the majority of US residential property purchases since a Depression era housing stimulus program created them in 1938. That is until now. A perfect storm of institutional, political and economic … [Read more...]

August 28, 2015 – Quote of the Day

Bathtub

“The market is like a bathtub. Money is sloshing from one sector to another, but it is not leaving,” said strategist Louis Navellier, of Navellier Associates. … [Read more...]

August 27, 2015

Global Market CommentsAugust 27, 2015Fiat Lux Featured Trade:(HOW TO TRADE A CRASH),(WHY SHAREHOLDER ACTIVISTS HAVE THE UPPER HAND),(JCP), (NFLX), (HLF), (AAPL),(TESTIMONIAL) J. C. Penney Company, Inc. (JCP)Netflix, Inc. (NFLX)Herbalife Ltd. (HLF)Apple Inc. (AAPL) … [Read more...]

How to Trade a Crash

John Thomas

In my half-century of trading stocks, I have been through quite a few crashes. When the Nifty Fifty collapsed in 1973, everyone thought it was the end of the world. President Nixon resigned shortly afterwards. The 1987 crash certainly left its scars. My equity department at Morgan Stanley lost $75 million in one day, then a staggering amount. We had to pedal triple time to … [Read more...]

Why Activists Have the Upper Hand

Carl Icahn

Having been in this market for yonks, ages, and even a coon’s age, I have seen trading strategies come and go. First, there was the nifty fifty during the 1960’s. Junk bonds had their day in the sun. Then portfolio insurance was all the rage. Oops! While the dollar was weak, international diversification was the flavor of the day. After foreign stocks turned bitter, the IPO … [Read more...]

Testimonial

John Thomas

I am an independent financial advisor in Atlanta, GA.  We have spoken via email and text a few times.  Historically, you have always been responsive, even to my complaints, and I have always appreciated that. After canceling my Service a few months ago, I have decided to come back.  In markets like yesterday your insights are just too valuable not to have.  So I am officially … [Read more...]

August 27, 2015 – Quote of the Day

Donald Trump

“They are energetic. They are very smart. But a lot of them—they are paper pushers. They make a fortune. They pay no tax. It’s ridiculous, OK?” said presidential candidate, Donald Trump. … [Read more...]

August 26, 2015

Global Market Comments August 25, 2015 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (WHAT’S REALLY HAPPENING IN THE MIDDLE EAST), (USO), (TLT), (SPY), (GLD), (UUP), (XLK), (XLI), (XLF) United States Oil (USO) iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT) SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) PowerShares DB US Dollar Bullish ETF (UUP) Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLK) Industrial Select … [Read more...]

What’s Really Happening in the Middle East

Missile

Long-term observers of financial markets are befuddled, confused, and amazed at their complete lack of interest in the rapidly unfolding events in the Middle East. It seems that the more horrific the atrocities, the higher stock prices want to climb. Go figure. ISIS is in fact accelerating the most important geopolitical event so far in this century, the rapprochement of … [Read more...]

August 25, 2015

Global Market CommentsAugust 25, 2015Fiat Lux Featured Trade:(AUGUST 26 GLOBAL STRATEGY WEBINAR),(THE VOLATILITY PEAK IS IN),(VIX), (VXX), (XIV), (SVXY),(WHY WATER WILL SOON BE WORTH MORE THAN OIL),(CGW), (PHO), (FIW), (VE), (TTEK), (PNR) VOLATILITY S&P 500 (^VIX)iPath S&P 500 VIX ST Futures ETN (VXX)VelocityShares Daily Inverse VIX ST ETN (XIV)ProShares Short VIX … [Read more...]

Don’t Miss the August 26 Global Strategy Webinar

John Thomas

My next global strategy webinar will be held on Wednesday, August 26 at 12:00 PM EST. Bill Davis the Mad Day Trader will be my willing coconspirator. This time, I will be broadcasting to you live from Incline Village, Nevada, fresh back from my recent globetrotting. I’ll be giving you my updated outlook on stocks, bonds, commodities, currencies, precious metal, and real … [Read more...]

The Volatility Peak is In

tiger-swimming-2

Well, I certainly earned my crust of bread today. This was truly one of those mornings when you couldn’t believe your screens. When I went to sell short the Volatility Index (VIX), I discovered that it wasn’t trading. Volatility in fact didn’t trade at all for the first 15 minutes of Monday. Unbelievable! So I rushed to buy the short volatility ETF’s the Velocity Shares … [Read more...]

Why Water Will Soon Become More Valuable Than Oil

Waterfall

If you think that an energy glut is bad, it will pale in comparison to the next water crisis. So investment in fresh water infrastructure is going to be a great recurring long-term investment theme. One theory about the endless wars in the Middle East since 1918 is that they have really been over water rights. Although Earth is often referred to as the water planet, only 2.5% … [Read more...]

August 25, 2015 – Quote of the Day

Desert

“The money pouring out of the emerging markets is not bad for the US. We are the oasis in this situation,” said strategist Louis Navellier, of Navellier Associates. … [Read more...]

August 24, 2015

Global Market CommentsAugust 24, 2015Fiat Lux Featured Trade:(TEN STOCKS TO BUY AT THE BOTTOM),(SPY), (QQQ), (IWM), (TLT)(THE MYSTERY OF THE BRASHER DOUBLOON),(TESTIMONIAL) SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)PowerShares QQQ Trust, Series 1 (QQQ)iShares Russell 2000 (IWM)iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT) … [Read more...]

Ten Stocks to Buy at the Bottom

John Thomas

Suddenly, the consolidation turned into a correction. Six months of tedious, boring, low double-digit volatility exploded to the upside, the Volatility Index (VIX) reaching a stratospheric 28.3%. Trades that once seemed impossible can now get done, provided you use limit orders. Let me get this right. Stocks crashed on Friday because: 1) The Federal Reserve isn’t going to … [Read more...]

The Mystery of the Brasher Doubloon

Brasher Doubloon

I’ll never forget when my friend, Don Kagin, one of the world’s top dealers in rare coins, walked into the gym one day and announced that he made $1 million that morning.  I enquired “How is that, pray tell?” He told me that he was an investor and technical consultant to a venture hoping to discover the long lost USS Central America, which sunk in a storm off the Atlantic … [Read more...]

Testimonial

John Thomas

It would be remiss of me not to give thanks to you during this Thanksgiving season for all of your wise and profitable trading advice and wonderfully captivating and intense diaries. You are indeed very generous to your subscribers. Based on what I have received so far it could not have been more fortuitous for me to have taken up your generous offer to profit from your brain … [Read more...]

August 24, 2015 – Quote of the Day

Mountain

“We are going to be working off backlogs of construction, mining, oil, and gas for years,” said my friend, famed short seller Jim Chanos of Kynikos Associates. … [Read more...]

August 21, 2015

Global Market CommentsAugust 21, 2015Fiat Lux Featured Trade:(AUGUST 26 GLOBAL STRATEGY WEBINAR),(FRIDAY, OCTOBER 23 INCLINE VILLAGE, NEVADA STRATEGY LUNCHEON),(WHAT DID THE FED REALLY SAY?)(SPY), (EM), (FXE), (EUO), (TLT), (TBT), (USO), (GLD), (FCX) SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)CurrencyShares Euro ETF (FXE)ProShares UltraShort Euro (EUO)iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond … [Read more...]

Friday, October 23 Incline Village, Nevada Global Strategy Luncheon

Lake Tahoe View

Come join me for lunch at the Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Global Strategy Update, which I will be conducting in Incline Village, Nevada on Friday, October 23, 2015. An excellent meal will be followed by a wide-ranging discussion and an extended question and answer period. I’ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, currencies, commodities, precious metals, and real … [Read more...]

What Did the Fed Really Say?

Soldiers - Combat

What the Federal Reserve gave us on Wednesday with the release of their July minutes was decisive waffle. On the one hand, steadily rising employment means an interest rate rise is close. On the other, the strong dollar, China, emerging markets, and the oil and commodity collapse is scaring the daylights out of them. You can bet that every central banker in the world is … [Read more...]

August 21, 2015 – Quote of the Day

“It’s not overly frightening to have the Fed move away from massive accommodation. I think the market may struggle, but it is not a death blow,” said James Paulson, chief investment strategist at Wells Fargo Asset Management. … [Read more...]

August 20, 2015

Global Market CommentsAugust 20, 2015Fiat Lux Featured Trade:(FRIDAY, OCTOBER 30 SAN FRANCISCO STRATEGY LUNCHEON)(WHY I HAVE BECOME SO BORING),(SPY), (QQQ), (IWM), (AAPL), (TSLA), (BIDU), (LNG),(TACKLING THE INFLATION MYTH),(AAPL), (GOOG), (TWTR), (FB) SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)PowerShares QQQ Trust, Series 1 (QQQ)iShares Russell 2000 (IWM)Apple Inc. (AAPL)Tesla Motors, Inc. … [Read more...]

Friday, October 30 San Francisco Strategy Luncheon

San Francisco

Come join me for lunch at the Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Global Strategy Update, which I will be conducting in San Francisco on Friday, October 30, 2015. An excellent meal will be followed by a wide ranging discussion and an extended question and answer period. I’ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, currencies, commodities, precious metals, and real estate. And … [Read more...]

Why I Have Become So Boring

John Thomas

I have recently received a few complaints from readers that I have become boring. I have to confess that they are right. I am not a person who boredom comes to easily. I’m the guy who climbed the Matterhorn, crossed the Sahara Desert on the back of a camel, and went to surfing school at age 63. And that’s just what I did last month! However, I do admit that I have become … [Read more...]

Tackling the Low Inflation Myth

David Stockman

I have long told my listeners at conferences, webinars and strategy luncheons my definition of the “new inflation”: the price for whatever you have to buy is rising, as with energy, health care and a college education. The price of the things you need to sell, such as your labor and services, is falling. So while official government numbers show that the overall rate of … [Read more...]

August 19, 2015

Global Market CommentsAugust 19, 2015Fiat Lux Featured Trade:(MAD HEDGE FUND TRADER HITS 38.37% GAIN IN 2015),(AAPL), (GS), (UVXY), (FXY), (YCS), (FXE), (EUO), (TBT), (TLT).(THE BULL MARKET IN AMERICAN COLLEGE DEGREES),(TESTIMONIAL) Apple Inc. (AAPL)The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (GS)ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures (UVXY)CurrencyShares Japanese Yen ETF (FXY)ProShares … [Read more...]

Mad Hedge Fund Trader Hits 38.37% Gain in 2015

John Thomas

I am back at my mountain top aerie near the city of San Francisco. Drifting smoke from the enormous forest fires up north have turned the skies a pale rust brown, taking visibility down to a few hundred yards. Some 100 square miles have burned up near here in the past month, the inevitable result of our four-year drought. El Nino! Where are you? I tried going on a hike last … [Read more...]

The Bull Market in American College Degrees

Graduation Cap

I recently spent a weekend attending a graduation in Washington State, a stone’s throw from where the 2010 Vancouver Winter Olympics were held. While sitting through the tedious reading of 550 names, I was struck by how many seemed to come from abroad. As I listened to the wailing ceremonial bagpipes, I did several calculations on the back of the commencement program and was … [Read more...]

Testimonial

John Thomas

We made a lot of money from your service this year.  I don’t agree with all of John Thomas’ trades, but we really like his insight and timely and quick, short emails that he broadcasts, like on the ECB interest rate cut, the falling yen, etc. Thank you. Craig Herndon, Virginia … [Read more...]

August 19, 2015 – Quote of the Day

Man-Tired with Dollar Signs

“When a manager with a reputation for brilliance takes a business with poor fundamental economics, it is the reputation of the business that remains intact,” said oracle of Omaha, Warrant Buffett. … [Read more...]

August 18, 2015

Global Market CommentsAugust 18, 2015Fiat Lux Featured Trade:(WHY THE CHINESE YUAN IS DONE FALLING),(CYB), (FXI), (EWH), (FXE), (EUO),(PLEASE CHOOSE THE OCTOBER INCLINE VILLAGE, NEVADA  STRATEGY LUNCHEON DATE),(THE PASSING OF A GREAT MAN) WisdomTree Chinese Yuan Strategy ETF (CYB)iShares China Large-Cap (FXI)iShares MSCI Hong Kong (EWH)CurrencyShares Euro ETF (FXE)ProShares … [Read more...]

Why the Chinese Yuan is Done Falling

Janet Yellen

There is absolutely no doubt in my mind that the surprise five point spike up in the bond market last week is entirely due to the shocking devaluation of the Chinese Yuan. Prior to that, fixed income markets were discounting the inevitable rise in US interest rates and fall in the bond market. It is really irrelevant whether Janet makes her move in September, December, or … [Read more...]

A Note on the October Incline Village, Nevada Strategy Luncheon

John Thomas

A dozen or so of you expressed interest in attending my upcoming October Global Strategy luncheon in Incline Village Nevada. This is when followers have a chance to meet with me personally, hook up with other readers, exchange trading and investment ideas, and tell a few jokes. Think of it as a “Good old boys (and girls) club”. It is an opportunity to grill me on matters that … [Read more...]

The Passing of a Great Man

Bob

It was with a heavy heart that I boarded a plane for Los Angeles to attend a funeral for Bob, the former scoutmaster of Boy Scout Troop 108. The event brought a convocation of ex-scouts from up and down the West coast, and said much about our age. Bob, 85, called me two weeks ago to tell me his CAT scan had just revealed advanced metastatic lung cancer. I said … [Read more...]

August 17, 2015

Global Market CommentsAugust 17, 2015Fiat Lux Featured Trade:(MY YEAREND STOCK MARKET VIEW),(SPY), (QQQ), (PANW), (GILD), (IBB), (AAPL), (KBE), (GS), (LEN), (USO), (DIS),(SAN FRANCISCO’S LONG SUFFERING RENTERS TAKE ANOTHER HIT) SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY)PowerShares QQQ Trust, Series 1 (QQQ)Palo Alto Networks, Inc. (PANW)Gilead Sciences Inc. (GILD)iShares Trust - iShares … [Read more...]

My Yearend Stock Market View

John Thomas

I hate to be the bearer of sad tidings guys. But I think the choppy, volatile, trendless, trading conditions we are all suffering right now will continue for a few more weeks, and possibly all the way out to the September 17-18 Federal Reserve interest rate decision. Man! I wish I were still back in the Sahara Desert. There, I only had to worry about scorpions, poisonous … [Read more...]

San Francisco’s Suffering Renters Take Another Hit

Bedroom

The San Francisco Bay area’s beleaguered renting class moaned again when the social media giant, Twitter (TWTR) finally went public. The deal immediately placed $1.82 billion into the pockets of early shareholders, almost all of whom live near the company’s San Francisco headquarters. This is adding insult to injury to those in the region who are desperately seeking a home. … [Read more...]

August 17, 2015 – Quote of the Day

Caveman

“It doesn’t take Herculean assumptions to get to $125 for S&P 500 earnings this year. Slap a 16 multiple on that, and you get 2,000 for the index,” said Brian Jacobson of Wells Fargo Advantage Partners. … [Read more...]

August 14, 2015

Global Market CommentsAugust 14, 2015Fiat Lux Featured Trade:(WHY THE “UNDERGROUND” ECONOMY IS GROWING),(THE PARTY IS JUST GETTING STARTED WITH THE JAPANESE YEN),(FXY), (YCS), (DXJ) CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust (FXY)ProShares UltraShort Yen (YCS)WisdomTree Trust - WisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity Fund (DXJ) … [Read more...]

Why the “Underground” Economy is Growing

Emperor - No Clothes

There is no doubt that the “underground” economy is growing. No, I’m not talking about violent crime, drug dealing, or prostitution. Those are largely driven by demographics, which right now, are at a low ebb. I’m referring to the portion of the economy that the government can’t see, and therefore is not counted in its daily data releases. This is a big problem. Most … [Read more...]

The Party is Just Getting Started With the Japanese Yen

Japanese Lady-Sad

I’m sorry, but I just don’t believe that we will see a weak dollar potentially going into the first interest rate rise in nine years. If my friend, Janet, pulls the trigger, then the greenback will become the only currency in the world that is raising rates. Currencies just don’t decline in those circumstances. In that case, we want to go out and sell short the weakest link … [Read more...]

August 14, 2015 – Quote of the Day

Handcuffed

“Financial repression seems to be working. The Fed is pushing everyone into riskier assts. Stocks are the obvious place for that, and it’s driving valuations ever higher,” said Curt Custard, of UBS Asset Management. … [Read more...]

August 13, 2015

Global Market CommentsAugust 13, 2015Fiat Lux Featured Trade:(CHINA’S FIRECRACKER SURPRISE),($SSEC), (FXI), (CYB), (EWH),(ALL I WANT TO DO IS RETIRE),(THE TWELVE DAY YEAR) Shanghai Stock Exchange Compostite Index ($SSEC)iShares Trust - iShares China Large-Cap ETF (FXI)WisdomTree Trust - WisdomTree Chinese Yuan Strategy Fund (CYB)iShares, Inc. - iShares MSCI Hong Kong ETF … [Read more...]

China’s Firecracker Surprise

China - Firecracker

Don’t waste your time trying to analyze financial markets right now. There is only one ticker symbol you need to know about, that for the Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index, the ($SSEC). When Shanghai goes up, the rest of the world’s risk assets happily join the party. When it drops, “RISK OFF” fever goes pandemic. China upped the ante this week when it allowed its … [Read more...]

All I Want to do is Retire

Dollar in Vice

I have always believed that if you don’t have a sense of humor, then you better get the hell out of this business. Below is a link to a YouTube video entitled “All I Want to do is Retire” which covers the decline of the brokerage industry over the last 20 years. The video is currently going viral, with 87,000 views so far, and was sent to me by a subscriber. Watch this during … [Read more...]

The Twelve Day Year

Man Sleeping on Couch

I have reported in the past on the value of the Friday-Monday effect, whereby the bulk of the year's performance can be had through buying the Friday close in the stock market and then selling the Monday close (click here for “The Friday-Monday Effect Exposed”). Well, I have discovered a further distillation of this phenomenon. During 2010, the S&P 500 rose by 143 points. … [Read more...]

August 12, 2015

Global Market Comments August 12, 2015 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (A NOTE ON NEXT WEEK’S OPTIONS EXPIRATIONS) (TESTIMONIAL)   … [Read more...]

A Note on Next Week’s Options Expirations

John Thomas

We have an options positions that is deep in the money, and I just want to explain to the newbies how to best maximize their profits. This comprises: S&P 500 (SPY) August $214-$217 in-the-money vertical bear put spread with a cost of $2.50. As long as the (SPY) closes at $214.00 or above on Friday, August 21, the position will expire worth $3.00 and you will achieve the … [Read more...]

August 12, 2015 – Quote of the Day

Woman Runner

“The speed of change has accelerated tremendously. What used to happen in three years now happens in three months,” said my friend, Hewlett Packard CEO, Meg Whitman. … [Read more...]

Testimonial

Car

Thank You John, While I was away at a car show today, my sell order was filled for my iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond Fund (TLT) August, 2015 $125-$128 in-the-money vertical bear put spread at $2.90. I bought it at $2.62 after your Trade Alert. My profit was $2.89 - 2.62 = 0.27 x 3800 = $1,026. Mort New Jersey … [Read more...]

August 11, 2015

Global Market Comments August 11, 2015 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (AUGUST 12 GLOBAL STRATEGY WEBINAR), (MIXING WITH THE 1% AT THE PEBBLE BEACH CONCOURSE D’ ELEGANCE) … [Read more...]

Mixing with the 1% at Pebble Beach

Ferrari 375 MM Scaglietti Coupe

On the right was my friend’s 1958 Ferrari Testa Rossa Scaglietta. On my left was a 1929 Dusenberg Murphy convertible sedan with a V-12 engine. I just walked past a 1914 Rolls Royce Silver Ghost Portholme Alpine Tourer. Yes, it’s August in Pebble Beach, California, and that can only mean one thing. It’s time for another Concourse d’ Elegance car show. This is my annual … [Read more...]

August 10, 2015

Global Market CommentsAugust 10, 2015Fiat Lux Featured Trade:(THE JULY NONFARM PAYROLL YAWN),(SPY), (TLT)(WHY I DON’T CARE ABOUT OIL),(USO), (UNG) SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT)United States Oil (USO)United States Natural Gas (UNG) … [Read more...]

The July Nonfarm Payroll Yawn

John Thomas

I’m back. No more croissants for breakfast. Goodbye to the fabulous selection of cold cuts and cheeses. No more great coffee. It’s back to a sugar infused, calorie packed concoction at Starbucks. In other words, it’s back to the salt mines for me. I have just come off a grueling 12 ½ hour flight from Zurich, Switzerland to San Francisco. My cell phone no longer worked in … [Read more...]

Why I Don’t Care About Oil

Man-Oil Bottles

With the price of oil closing at a low on Friday of $43.77, you’d think I might be concerned. In actual fact, I could care less, am indifferent, unconcerned, and even could give a rat’s ass. There’s nothing like seeing your long term forecasts vindicated. When I warned the oil majors in the late 1990’s that fracking technology was about to change their world beyond all … [Read more...]

August 10, 2015 – Quote of the Day

Woman - Shopping Bags

“There’s nothing but tailwinds behind the American consumer. You’re creating a boatload of jobs, you’re creating all kinds of jobs. Wage growth is accelerating. The stock market is at record highs. The debt service burden is as low as it has ever been. And consumer confidence is back to pre recession levels,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics. … [Read more...]

August 7, 2015

Global Market Comments August 7, 2015 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (AUGUST 12 GLOBAL STRATEGY WEBINAR), (REPORT FROM MOROCCO) … [Read more...]

Report from Morocco

John Thomas

The Berber tribesmen were upset that their WiFi wasn’t working. I cannot think of a more dissonant statement to be made about the early 21st century. So I told the front desk clerks in remote Ouarzazate, Morocco, on the edge of the Western Sahara Desert, that I would be happy to fix it for them. They looked at me suspiciously. I went on to explain. I come from a far away … [Read more...]

August 7, 2015 – Quote of the Day

Bull-Bear Statue

“The lack of complacency is at odds with the view that the market has peaked—peaks are turned in when every last bear has thrown in the towel, and the bulls are screaming to buy from the roof tops,” said David A. Rosenberg, of research boutique Gluskin Sheff. … [Read more...]

August 6, 2015

Global Market CommentsAugust 6, 2015Fiat Lux SPECIAL TEN BAGGERS SERIES Featured Trade:(THE TEN BAGGERS IN SOLAR ENERGY),(SCTY), (FSLR), (TSLA), (SPWR), (GOOG) SolarCity Corporation (SCTY)First Solar, Inc. (FSLR)Tesla Motors, Inc. (TSLA)SunPower Corporation (SPWR)Google Inc. (GOOG) … [Read more...]

The Ten Baggers in Solar Energy

Solar Panel Installation

What we are seeing now is nothing less than the complete remaking of the American energy supply. It is a metamorphosis, just as, if not more, dramatic than the initial electrification of the United States launched by Thomas Edison in 1876. Think of it as a disruptive technology with a turbocharger. Eventually, the cost of energy will drop to near zero in today’s terms. The … [Read more...]

August 5, 2015

Global Market Comments August 5, 2015 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (SHAKING THE HAND THAT KILLED OSAMA BIN LADEN) … [Read more...]

Shaking the Hand that Killed Osama bin Laden

No Easy Day

The team fought their way up two flights of stairs in pitch-blackness, dispatching several fighters along the way. A tall figure emerged in the green glow of the night vision goggles. It hesitated. Two shots were fired, and the body hit the ground. That was how Navy Seal Team Six member, Mark Owen, described the last seconds of Al Qaida leader, Osama bin Laden, in the raid on … [Read more...]

August 4, 2015

Global Market Comments August 4, 2015 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (REPORT FROM THE MATTERHORN SUMMIT) … [Read more...]

Report from the Matterhorn Summit

Matterhorn Summit

From where I stand, the rolling foothills of Northern Italy spread out below me to the south. On my left lie the distinctive peaks of the Dolomite Alps. On my right I can see the massive expanse of Mont Blanc, at 15,781 feet the highest mountain in Europe. I am standing at the summit of the Matterhorn. Knock another item off the bucket list. I have been trying to climb this … [Read more...]

August 4, 2015 – Quote of the Day

Baseball

“This is very bullish for markets. It’s bullish for markets intermediate term. Before, I thought we were in the seventh inning of a four-year bull market. Two waiters just came in and delivered another punch bowl. We’re going into extra innings, baby,” said Stanley Druckenmiller of hedge fund Duquesne Capital Management. … [Read more...]

August 3, 2015

Global Market CommentsAugust 3, 2015Fiat Lux SPECIAL CYBER SECURITY ISSUE Featured Trade:(THE TEN BAGGERS IN CYBER SECURITY),(PANW), (FEYE), (HACK) Palo Alto Networks, Inc. (PANW)FireEye, Inc. (FEYE)PureFunds ISE Cyber Security ETF (HACK) … [Read more...]

The Ten Baggers in Cyber Security

US Cyber Command Emblem

The threat to America’s national security does not come from ISIS, Iran, Russia, or China. It is an online hack attack. That is the view of General Keith B. Alexander, who recently retired as the head of US Cyber Command after a lifetime in the intelligence business, the country’s principal online warrior. I discovered a long time ago that a retired general can be one of the … [Read more...]

July 31, 2015

Global Market Comments July 31, 2015 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (SO WHAT IS YOUR “INFLUENCER” SCORE) (REPORT FROM THE ORIENT EXPRESS) … [Read more...]

So What is Your “Influencer” Score?

31st Annual Outstanding Mother Awards

First there was your grade point average, then your SAT score, followed by GMAT and LSAT scores, and finally your FICO. Now there is a new metric with which you will be judged, your “Influencer” score. A new breed of marketing research firms are using data from social media sites, like Facebook, LinkedIn, and Twitter, to rank members according to their ability to spur their … [Read more...]

Report from The Orient Express

Orient Express

I was awoken from a dead sleep in the middle of the night in my suite on the Orient Express by a juddering halt and the smell of burning breaks in the air. We were somewhere high in the Swiss Alps, and every single passenger on the first class only train had to be thinking that a murder had just been discovered. It turned out that in the darkness we had hit a 400-pound wild … [Read more...]

July 30, 2105

Global Market CommentsJuly 30, 2015Fiat Lux Featured Trade:(LAST CHANCE TO ATTEND THE AUGUST 3 ZURICH, SWITZERLAND GLOBAL STRATEGY LUNCHEON),(WELCOME TO THE DEFLATIONARY CENTURY),(TLT), (TBT),(MY PERSONAL ECONOMIC INDICATOR),(HMC), (NSANY), (GM), (F), (TSLA) iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT)ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (TBT)Honda Motor Co., Ltd. (HMC)Nissan Motor … [Read more...]

Last Chance to Attend the August 3 Zurich, Switzerland Global Strategy Luncheon

Zurich

Come join me at the Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Global Strategy luncheon, which I will be conducting in the banking capitol of Zurich, Switzerland at 12:00 PM on Monday, August 3, 2015. A three course lunch will be provided. I’ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, foreign currencies, commodities, precious metals, and real estate. And to keep you in suspense, I’ll … [Read more...]

Welcome to the Deflationary Century

Baseball

Ignore the lessons of history, and the cost to your portfolio will be great. Especially if you are a bond trader! In Britain they are celebrating something unusual this year. The government is reporting the first year on year decline in consumer prices in 54 years (see chart below). In fact, prices for the things they buy day to day are 0.1% lower than they were 12 months … [Read more...]

My Personal Leading Economic Indicator

Honda Car Lot

There is no limit to my desire to get an early and accurate read on the US economy, which at the end of the day is what dictates the future of all of our investments. I flew over one of my favorite leading economic indicators only last month. Honda (HMC) and Nissan (NSANY) import millions of cars each year through their Benicia, California facilities, where they are loaded on … [Read more...]

July 30, 2015 – Quote of the Day

girl with money

If you can get a dividend higher than the yield on ten-year debt, it’s an opportunity we haven’t seen in our lifetime. On a five-year horizon, investing in large multinationals with high dividends will have a large payday,” said Lawrence Fink, CEO of BlackRock. … [Read more...]

July 29, 2015

Global Market Comments July 29, 2015 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (PRESIDENT HILLARY’S COMING TAX HIT), (THOUGHTS AT SEA ABOARD THE QE2-PART III) … [Read more...]

President Hillary’s Coming Tax Hit

Hillary Clinton

At long last, Hillary Clinton has started to make public key planks of her post election policies, which may become law if she is successful in her 2016 presidential bid. Until now, her run for the Democratic nomination has largely been about what she had for breakfast, her hairstyle, how nice her mom was, or how tough her dad was. I have known Hillary Clinton for more than … [Read more...]

Thoughts at Sea Aboard the Queen Mary 2, Part III

John Thomas - Queen Mary

50 degrees, 26.68 minutes North, 022 degrees, 29.98 minutes West, or 1,000 nautical miles South of Iceland, heading 089 degrees. Four days of hearing foghorns is starting to get tiring. Captain Wells has been ducking many of his social responsibilities, feeling more secure in the bridge close to the radar. After a few days of intermittent access, the Internet is now gone for … [Read more...]

July 29, 2015 – Quote of the Day

Sinking Ship - Titanic

“Everything is expensive now. Worries about the future can cause safe assets to become highly priced….I call it the “Titanic Effect.” When the Titanic was going down, people would pay a fortune for anything that floats. We may be in a Titanic situation now,” said my buddy, Nobel Prize winner Robert Shiller. … [Read more...]

Last Chance to Attend the July 31 Zermatt, Switzerland Global Strategy Seminar

John Thomas - Switzerland

Come join me for afternoon tea for the Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Global Strategy Seminar, which I will be conducting high in the Alps in Zermatt, Switzerland at 2:00 PM on Friday, July 31, 2015. The guests and I will engage in an open discussion on the crucial issues facing investors today. Coffee, tea, and schnapps will be made available, along with light snacks. I’ll be … [Read more...]

Mad Hedge Fund Trader Hits 31.5% Gain in 2015

John Thomas

Life is good. Since my last letter to you, I hired a Mercedes and a Moroccan driver, driven the three hours from Tangier to Casablanca, and spent a day touring the architecture of the French colonial art deco center of that storied city. It turns out that my driver only did his job part time. He was in fact a graduate student in economics studying in Tangier and had a lot to … [Read more...]

Will Gold Coins Suffer the Fate of the $10,000 Bill?

ten-thousand-10000-dollar-bill

The conspiracy theorists will love this one. Buried deep in the bowels of the 2,000 page health care bill was a new requirement for gold dealers to file Form 1099's for all retail sales by individuals over $600. Specifically, the measure can be found in section 9006 of the Patient Protection and Affordability Act of 2010. For foreign readers unencumbered by such concerns, … [Read more...]

July 28, 2015

Global Market CommentsJuly 28, 2015Fiat Lux Featured Trade:(LAST CHANCE TO ATTEND THE JULY 31 ZERMATT, SWITZERLAND GLOBAL STRATEGY SEMINAR),(MAD HEDGE FUND TRADER HITS 31.5% GAIN IN 2015),(WILL GOLD SUFFER THE FATE OF THE $10,000 BILL?)(GLD), (GDX) SPDR Gold Shares (GLD)Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX) … [Read more...]

July 27, 2015

Global Market CommentsJuly 27, 2015Fiat Lux Featured Trade:(AUGUST 3 ZURICH, SWITZERLAND GLOBAL STRATEGY LUNCHEON)(SO WHAT’S NEXT FOR THE MARKETS?),(SPY), (QQQ), (AMZN), (GOOG), (AAPL), (FB), (GILD), (DIS),(TESTIMONIAL) SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)PowerShares QQQ Trust, Series 1 (QQQ)Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN)Google Inc. (GOOG)Apple Inc. (AAPL)Facebook, Inc. (FB)Gilead Sciences … [Read more...]

So What’s Next for the Markets?

S&P Market Snapshot

I am writing to you from the bar of the El-Minzah Hotel in Tangiers, Morocco, a one-time favorite of literary greats, F. Scott Fitzgerald, Earnest Hemingway, and Paul Bowls. A warm, languid breeze coming off the Atlantic Ocean is causing the date palms around the pool to sway in rhythmic fashion. The city has long been a hotbed of espionage, international intrigue, and … [Read more...]

Testimonial

John Thomas Dining

John's newsletter is, in my view, the Secretariat of the investment newsletter derby. No one else is even a close second. Gary New Jersey … [Read more...]

July 24, 2015

Global Market Comments July 24, 2015 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (JULY 31 ZERMATT, SWITZERLAND GLOBAL STRATEGY SEMINAR) (HOW TO USE YOUR CELL PHONE ABROAD) … [Read more...]