April 25, 2013

Global Market Comments April 25, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (MAY 8 LAS VEGAS STRATEGY LUNCHEON), (SELL IN MAY HAS ALREADY STARTED), (SPY), (IWM), (TLT), (TBT), (GLD), (SLV), (USO), (UNG), (CHINA’S VIEW OF CHINA), (FXI), (EEM) SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) iShares Russell 2000 Index (IWM) iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treas Bond (TLT) ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury … [Read more...]

May 8 Las Vegas Strategy Luncheon

las-vegas-welcome-sign

Come join me for lunch at the Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Global Strategy Update, which I will be conducting in Las Vegas, Nevada on Wednesday, May 8, 2013. An excellent meal will be followed by a wide-ranging discussion and an extended question and answer period. I’ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, currencies, commodities, precious metals, and real estate. I … [Read more...]

“Sell in May” Has Started

Sherlock Holmes

You don’t have to wait until May for the next correction in the stock market, which is only four trading days away. Take a look at the charts below prepared by my good friends, Arthur Hill and John Murphy at Stockcharts.com, and you’ll see it has already started. In fact, it might be almost over. Only 42% of stocks listed on the New York Stock Exchange are now above their … [Read more...]

China’s View of China

China - Parade

I ran into Minxin Pei, a scholar at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace who imparted to me some iconoclastic, out of consensus views on China’s position in the world today. He thinks that power is not shifting from West to East; Asia is just lifting itself off the mat, with per capita GDP at $5,800, compared to $48,000 in the US. We are simply moving from a … [Read more...]

April 24, 2013

Global Market Comments April 24, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (JULY 2 NEW YORK STRATEGY LUNCHEON), (THINGS ARE HEATING UP IN MEXICO), (EWW), (UMX), (BSMX), (EEM), (BUDGET CUTS HOT THE WILD ANIMAL MARKET) iShares MSCI Mexico Capped Invstbl Mkt (EWW) ProShares Ultra MSCI Mexico Cppd IMI (UMX) Grupo Financiero Santander S.A.B. de C.V. (BSMX) iShares MSCI Emerging … [Read more...]

July 2 New York Strategy Luncheon

Empire State Building

Come join me for lunch for the Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Global Strategy Seminar, which I will be conducting in New York, NY on Tuesday, July 2, 2013. An excellent three-course lunch will be provided. A PowerPoint presentation will be followed by an extended question and answer period. I’ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, foreign currencies, commodities, … [Read more...]

Things Are Heating Up in Mexico

Mexican

I have fond memories traveling around northern Mexico during the 1950’s. My grandfather used to drive us across the border into Baja in his pickup truck, the back loaded with camping equipment, water, fishing poles, rifles, and shotguns. There was no border control. To eat, we only had to wait for the tide to go out on the Sea of Cortez, uncovering a banquet of fresh … [Read more...]

Budget Cuts Hit the Wild Animal Market

Tiger

In case you missed it, the second hand animal market has crashed. Forced to slash budgets by cash starved municipalities, the nation’s public zoos have been paring back their collections of living exhibits. The Washington Zoo is trying to offload a 7,000 pound hippopotamus; while the San Francisco Zoo is short some tigers after one ate a visitor and had to be shot. The … [Read more...]

April 23, 2013

Global Market Comments April 23, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (MAY 8 LAS VEGAS STRATEGY LUNCHEON), (PROBING FOR A BOTTOM IN GOLD), (GLD), (IS THIS THE FINAL BOTTOM FOR APPLE?), (AAPL), (GOOG), (JCP) SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) Apple Inc. (AAPL) Google Inc. (GOOG) J. C. Penney Company, Inc. (JCP) … [Read more...]

May 8 Las Vegas Strategy Luncheon

las-vegas-welcome-sign

Come join me for lunch at the Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Global Strategy Update, which I will be conducting in Las Vegas, Nevada on Wednesday, May 8, 2013. An excellent meal will be followed by a wide-ranging discussion and an extended question and answer period. I’ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, currencies, commodities, precious metals, and real estate. I … [Read more...]

Probing for a Bottom in Gold

Gold Nuggets

Thanks to last week’s Armageddon type crash in gold prices, implied volatilities on options in the SPDR Gold Trust Shares (GLD) have rocketed to five-year highs. This is in sharp contrast to equity index option implieds, which are just a few percent above six year lows. Therefore, the deep in the money option strategy in the (GLD) is now vastly superior to alternatives found in … [Read more...]

Is This the Final Bottom for Apple?

Apple-Bite

Apple has been one of the great conundrums of the investment industry this year, the stock falling through the floor of any standard valuation model. With the shares at $395 the stock is discounting a 12% drop in earnings per year for the next several years. Either something terrible is about to happen at Steve Jobs’ creation, or it is the “BUY” of the century. I believe it is … [Read more...]

April 22, 2013

Global Market Comments April 22, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (MAY 8 LAS VEGAS STRATEGY LUNCHEON), (THE TAX RATE FALLACY), (AN AFTERNOON WITH BOONE PICKENS) … [Read more...]

May 8 Las Vegas Strategy Luncheon

las-vegas-welcome-sign

Come join me for lunch at the Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Global Strategy Update, which I will be conducting in Las Vegas, Nevada on Wednesday, May 8, 2013. An excellent meal will be followed by a wide-ranging discussion and an extended question and answer period. I’ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, currencies, commodities, precious metals, and real estate. I … [Read more...]

The Tax Rate Fallacy

irs

When anyone starts lecturing you that the US has the highest tax rate in the industrialized world, just turn around, walk away, and pretend you never heard of them. This person is either ignorant about this country's taxation system, or is deliberately trying to deceive you. According to a report released by the Internal Revenue Service, America's tax collection agency, the … [Read more...]

An Afternoon With Boone Pickens

2321

Reformed oil man, repenting sinner, and borne again environmentalist T. Boone Pickens says that “When we turn the US green, it will have the best economy ever.” I met the spry, homespun billionaire at San Francisco’s Mark Hopkins on a leg of his self-financed national campaign to get America to kick its dangerous dependence on foreign oil imports. For the past 30 years, the … [Read more...]

April 19, 2013

Global Market Comments April 19, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (MAY 8 LAS VEGAS STRATEGY LUNCHEON), (AMERICA’S NATIVE INDIAN ECONOMY), (BUSINESS IS BOOMING AT ROUGH TIMES), (GLD), (SLV), (CCJ), (NLR) SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) iShares Silver Trust (SLV) Cameco Corporation (CCJ) Market Vectors Uranium+Nuclear Enrgy ETF (NLR) … [Read more...]

May 8 Las Vegas Strategy Luncheon

las-vegas-welcome-sign

Come join me for lunch at the Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Global Strategy Update, which I will be conducting in Las Vegas, Nevada on Wednesday, May 8, 2013. An excellent meal will be followed by a wide-ranging discussion and an extended question and answer period. I’ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, currencies, commodities, precious metals, and real estate. I … [Read more...]

America’s Native Indian Economy

indian

When I was remodeling my 160-year-old London house, the chimney was in desperate need of attention. After the bricklayer crawled up the fireplace, he found a yellowed and somewhat singed envelope addressed to Santa Claus. Thinking it was placed there by my kids, he handed it over to me. In it was a letter dated Christmas, 1910 asking for a Red Indian suit. Europeans have … [Read more...]

Business is Booming at Ruff Times

end

Following Howard Ruff for the last 35 years has always been eye opening, if not entertaining. The irascible Mormon is the publisher of Ruff Times, one of the oldest investment letters in the business, and one of the original worshipers of hard assets. Ruff says that any investment denominated in dollars is a mistake, which is in a long term down trend, along with all paper … [Read more...]

April 18, 2013

Global Market Comments April 18, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (APRIL 19 CHICAGO STRATEGY LUNCHEON), (NOTICE TO MILITARY SUBSCRIBERS), (CHINA’S COMING DEMOGRAPHIC NIGHTMARE), (THE TECHNOLOGY NIGHTMARE COMING TO YOUR CITY) … [Read more...]

April 19 Chicago Strategy Luncheon

Chicago

Come join me for lunch for the Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Global Strategy Update, which I will be conducting in Chicago on Friday, April 19. A three-course lunch will be followed by a PowerPoint presentation and an extended question and answer period. I’ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, foreign currencies, commodities, precious metals, and real estate. And … [Read more...]

Notice to Military Subscribers

Soldier

To the dozens of subscribers in Iraq, Afghanistan, and the surrounding ships at sea, thank you for your service! I think it is very wise to use your free time to read my letter and learn about financial markets in preparation for an entry into the financial services when you muster out. Nobody is going to call you a baby killer and shun you, as they did when I returned from … [Read more...]

China’s Coming Demographic Nightmare

Chinese Boy

Thanks to China's “one child only” policy adopted 30 years ago, and a cultural preference for children who grow up to become family safety nets, there are now 32 million more boys under the age of 20 than girls. Large scale interference with the natural male:female ratio has been tracked with some fascination by demographers for years, and is constantly generating unintended … [Read more...]

The Technology Nightmare Coming to Your City

Cars-parked

I tell people at my strategy luncheons that living in the San Francisco Bay area is like living in the future. There is an explosion of high tech innovation going on here, and we locals often find ourselves the guinea pigs for the latest hot products. However, sometimes the future is not such a great place to be. I learned this the other day when I received a parking ticket … [Read more...]

April 17, 2013

Global Market Comments April 17, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (AMERICA’S DEMOGRAPHIC TIME BOMB), (TRIBUTE TO A GIANT OF JOURNALISM, ROY ESSOYAN) … [Read more...]

America’s Demographic Time Bomb

Children

You can never underestimate the importance of demographics in shaping long term investment trends, so I thought I’d pass on these two highly instructive maps. The first shows a map of the world drawn in terms of the population of children, while the second illustrates the globe in terms of its 100 year olds. Notice that China and India dominate the children’s map. Kids turn … [Read more...]

April 16, 2013

Global Market Comments April 16, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (MAY 8 LAS VEGAS STRATEGY LUNCHEON), (BIDDING FOR THE STARS), (DOW AVERAGE), (SPY), (AN EVENING WITH TRAVEL GURU ARTHUR FROMMER), (HAPPY BIRTHDAY IRS!) SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) … [Read more...]

May 8 Las Vegas Strategy Luncheon

las-vegas-welcome-sign

Come join me for the lunch at the Mad Hedge Fund Trader's Global Strategy Update, which I will be conducting in Las Vegas, Nevada on Wednesday, May 8, 2013. An excellent meal will be followed by a wide-ranging discussion and an extended question and answer period. I’ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, currencies, commodities, precious metals, and real … [Read more...]

Bidding for the Stars

Shreve & Co.

A few years ago, I went to a charity fundraiser at San Francisco’s priciest jewelry store, Shreve & Co. The well-heeled masters of the universe bid for dates with the local high society beauties, dripping in diamonds and Channel No. 5. Well fueled with champagne, I jumped into a spirited bidding war over one of the Bay Area’s premier hotties, whom shall remain nameless. … [Read more...]

An Evening with Travel Guru Arthur Frommer

Europe on $5 a Day, cover

Travel guru, Arthur Frommer, says that now is the best time to travel in 20 years, thanks to a combination of a strong dollar and desperate price-cutting forced by the recession. Three years after oil hit an historic peak at $148/barrel, when $500 fuel surcharges abounded, and the demise of the travel industry was widely predicted, costs in some countries, like Mexico and … [Read more...]

Happy Birthday IRS!

Tax Form

Some taxpayers have been sending birthday cards in with their tax returns this year. That’s because the International Revenue Service, the collector of America’s tax revenues, is 100 years old this week. Although the wealthy have been paying income taxes since the 1861-65 Civil War, they did not apply to the rest of us until the passage of the 16th Amendment. The original … [Read more...]

April 15, 2013

Global Market Comments April 15, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (GOLD: NEXT STOP $1,250!), (GLD), (GDX), (SLV), (PPLT), (PALL), (USO), (CU), (FXY), (APRIL 17 GLOBAL STRATEGY WEBINAR), (APRIL 19 CHICAGO STRATEGY LUNCHEON), (SIGN UP NOW FOR TEXT MESSAGING OF TRADE ALERTS) SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX) iShares Silver Trust (SLV) ETFS … [Read more...]

Gold: Next Stop $1,250!

Market Down

Sometimes, the best trades are the ones you don’t do. I actually wrote up a Trade Alert to buy gold on Thursday, figuring that it would bounce the first time it hit my downside target of $1,500. But then I scanned the entire hard asset landscape, and saw that everything was selling off huge; silver (SLV), platinum (PPLT), palladium (PALL), oil (USO), copper (CU), and iron ore. … [Read more...]

Don’t Miss the April 17 Global Strategy Webinar

Robin Williams

My next global strategy webinar will be held on Wednesday, April 17 at 12:00 noon EDT. This one will be open to the public, so login in early to get a space. I’ll be giving you my updated outlook on stocks, bonds, commodities, currencies, precious metal, and real estate. The goal is to find the cheapest assets in the world to buy, the most expensive to sell short, and the … [Read more...]

April 19 Chicago Strategy Luncheon

Chicago

Come join me for lunch for the Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Global Strategy Update, which I will be conducting in Chicago on Friday, April 19. A three-course lunch will be followed by a PowerPoint presentation and an extended question and answer period. I’ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, foreign currencies, commodities, precious metals, and real estate. And … [Read more...]

Sign Up Now for Text Messaging of Trade Alerts

Testimonial

Paid subscribers are now able to receive instantaneous text messages of my proprietary Trade Alerts. This eliminates frustrating delays caused by traffic surges on the Internet itself and by your local server. To activate your free service, please log in to your account at www.madhedgefundtrader.com, look under your name on the right, and click on the blue hyperlink that … [Read more...]

April 12, 2013

Global Market Comments April 12, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (NOT YOUR FATHER’S RAILROADS), (UNP), (CSX), (NSC), (CP), (THE WORST TRADE OF ALL TIME), (GLD) Union Pacific Corporation (UNP) CSX Corp. (CSX) Norfolk Southern Corp. (NSC) Canadian Pacific Railway Limited (CP) SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) … [Read more...]

Not Your Father’s Railroads

Train-Cargo

When I rode Amtrak’s California Zephyr service from Chicago to San Francisco last year, we passed countless trains heading west hauling hoppers full of coal for shipment to China. This year I took the same trip. The coal trains were gone. Instead I saw 100 car long tanker trains transporting crude oil from North Dakota south to the Gulf Coast. I thought, “There’s got to be a … [Read more...]

The Worst Trade of All Time

Steve Martin

One of the great asset management blunders of all time has to be the European Community’s decision to sell its gold reserves in the wake of the launch of the Euro in 1998. The decision led to the fairly rapid sale of 3,800 tons of the yellow metal at an average price of $280/ounce, reaping about $56 billion, according to the Financial Times. Today with gold at $1,559/ounce, … [Read more...]

April 11, 2013

Global Market Comments April 11, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (APRIL 12 SAN FRANCISCO STRATEGY LUNCHEON), (JAPANESE CASH TSUNAMI HITS US), (SPY), (DXJ), (BAC), (AAPL), (TBT), (TLT), (GLD), (SLV) (TURKEY IS ON THE MENU), (TUR), (TKC) SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) WisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity (DXJ) Bank of America Corporation (BAC) Apple Inc. (AAPL) ProShares UltraShort … [Read more...]

April 12 San Francisco Strategy Luncheon

San Francisco

Come join me for lunch at the Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Global Strategy Update, which I will be conducting in San Francisco on Friday, April 12, 2013. An excellent meal will be followed by a wide-ranging discussion and an extended question and answer period. I’ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, currencies, commodities, precious metals, and real estate. And … [Read more...]

Japanese Cash Tsunami Hits US

Punch Bowl

When Japanese central bank governor, Haruhiko Kuroda, announced the most aggressive monetary stimulus program in history last week, he no doubt expected Tokyo share prices to head for the moon. In that, he has succeeded admirably, the yen hedged Japanese equity ETF (DXJ) soaring by 13.4% in the five trading days since he lobbed his bombshell. What the bespectacled bureaucrat … [Read more...]

Turkey is on the Menu

Istanbul

I am building lists of emerging market ETF’s to snap up during any summer sell off, and Turkey popped up on the menu. The country is only one of two Islamic countries that I consider investment grade, (Indonesia is the other one). The 82 million people of Turkey rank 15th in the world population, and 16th with a GDP of $960 billion GDP. Some 25% of the population is under the … [Read more...]

April 10, 2013

Global Market Comments April 10, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (MAY 8 LAS VEGAS STRATEGY LUNCHEON), (AN EVENING WITH GOVERNMENT MOTORS), (GM), General Motors Company (GM) … [Read more...]

May 8 Las Vegas Strategy Luncheon

las-vegas-welcome-sign

Come join me for lunch at the Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Global Strategy Update, which I will be conducting in Las Vegas, Nevada on Wednesday, May 8, 2013. An excellent meal will be followed by a wide-ranging discussion and an extended question and answer period. I’ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, currencies, commodities, precious metals, and real estate. I … [Read more...]

An Evening With “Government Motors”

GM-CEO-Dan-Akerson-1

Long-term readers of this letter are well aware of my antipathy towards General Motors (GM). For decades, the company turned a blind ear to customer complaints about shoddy, uncompetitive products, arcane management practices, entitled dealers, and a totally inward looking view of the world that was rapidly globalizing. It was like watching a close friend kill himself through … [Read more...]

April 9, 2013

Global Market Comments April 9, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (APRIL 19 CHICAGO STRATEGY LUNCHEON), (TRADER ALERT SERVICE POSTS BIGGEST ONE DAY GAIN), (FXY), (YCS), (BAC), (AAPL), (SPY), (TBT), (WHAT ABOUT ASSET ALLOCATION?), (AMERICA’S RAPIDLY CHANGING MIX) CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust (FXY) ProShares UltraShort Yen (YCS) Bank of America Corporation … [Read more...]

April 19 Chicago Strategy Luncheon

Chicago

Come join me for lunch for the Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Global Strategy Update, which I will be conducting in Chicago on Friday, April 19. A three-course lunch will be followed by a PowerPoint presentation and an extended question and answer period. I’ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, foreign currencies, commodities, precious metals, and real estate. And … [Read more...]

Trade Alert Service Posts Biggest One Day Gain

fat+lady+sings

Just a quick note to tell you that yesterday, the Trade Alert Service of the Mad Hedge Fund Trader posted its biggest one-day gain ever. From the Friday to the Monday close my trade-mentoring program picked up some 447 basis points. The three day pickup for the service is an eye popping 12.23%. That takes readers’ year to date profit to a mind blowing 39.52%. David Tepper, eat … [Read more...]

What About Asset Allocation?

Regis Philbin

Asset allocation is the one question that I get every day, which I absolutely cannot answer. The reason is simple: no two investors are alike. The answer varies whether you are young or old, have $1,000 in the bank or $1 billion, are a sophisticated investor or an average Joe, in the top or the bottom tax bracket, and so on. This is something you should ask your financial … [Read more...]

America’s Rapidly Changing Mix

Kids

Since I am in the long-term forecasting business, it was with some fascination that I caught the Associated Press report that minority children born last year exceeded Caucasian children for the first time. Whites lost their majority in San Francisco many years ago, and will do so in California as a whole in the near future. The report said that the US will have a ‘minority’ … [Read more...]

April 8, 2013

Global Market Comments April 8, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (APRIL 12 SAN FRANCISCO STRATEGY LUNCHEON), (TRADE ALERT SERVICE CAPTURES 35% GAIN IN 2013), (SPX), (VIX), (IWM), (BAC), (UAL), (FXE), (YCS), (GLD), (USO), (FCX), (TLT) (SLV), (AIG), (FXB), (CU) (DECODING THE GREEBACK), (THE FUSION IN YOUR FUTURE) S&P 500 Large Cap Index (SPX) VOLATILITYS&P500 … [Read more...]

April 12 San Francisco Strategy Luncheon

San Francisco

Come join me for lunch at the Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Global Strategy Update, which I will be conducting in San Francisco on Friday, April 12, 2013. An excellent meal will be followed by a wide-ranging discussion and an extended question and answer period. I’ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, currencies, commodities, precious metals, and real estate. And … [Read more...]

Trade Alert Service Captures 35% Profit on BOJ Move

John thomas

The stunning and unprecedented move by the Bank of Japan last week boosted the Trade Alert Service of the Mad Hedge Fund Trader to a new all time high. It was an incredible week, with me punching out 14 Trade Alerts to readers, burning up the fiber optic cable of the global broadband network. And I did all of this, sitting in front of the fire at my Lake Tahoe beachfront … [Read more...]

Decoding the Greenback

US Dollar

If you want to impress your friends with your vast knowledge of financial matters, then here are the Latin translations of the script on the backside of a US dollar bill. “ANNUIT COEPTIS” means “God has favored our undertaking.” “NOVUS ORDO SECLORUM” translates into “A new order has begun.” The Roman numerals at the base of the pyramid are “1776.” The better known “E … [Read more...]

The Fusion in Your Future

Planetarium

Expect to hear a lot about ignition in the next year. No, I don’t mean the rebuilt ignition for the beat up ’68 Cadillac El Dorado up on blocks in your front yard. I’m referring to the inauguration of the National Ignition Facility next door to me at Lawrence Livermore National Labs in Livermore, California. Mention California to most people, and images of love beads, tie … [Read more...]

April 5, 2013

Global Market Comments April 5, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (NEW BOJ GOVERNOR CRUSHES THE YEN), (FXY), (YCS), (DXJ), (SIGN UP NOW FOR TEXT MESSAGING OF TRADE ALERTS), (THERE ARE NO GURUS), (WATCH OUT FOR THE MILLENNIAL VOTER) CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust (FXY) ProShares UltraShort Yen (YCS) WisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity (DXJ) … [Read more...]

New BOJ Governor Crushes the Yen

BOJ Govenor

Wow! What a day! In perhaps the most dramatic policy move by any central bank, anywhere in history, the Bank of Japan pulled out all the stops to stimulate its moribund, demographically challenged economy. Japan is now lapping its competitors in Europe and the US in the international race to the bottom. The markets certainly got the memo. Japan’s beleaguered currency … [Read more...]

Sign Up Now for Text Messaging of Trade Alerts

Testimonial

Paid subscribers are now able to receive instantaneous text messages of my proprietary Trade Alerts. This eliminates frustrating delays caused by traffic surges on the Internet itself, and by your local server. To activate your free service, please log in to your account at www.madhedgefundtrader.com, look under your name on the right, and click on the blue hyperlink that … [Read more...]

Watch Out for the Millennial Voter

College Kids

I have been banging the table for years now about the importance of demographic trends for the economy, the financial markets, and the housing market. Well, politics is no different. According to recent surveys, Millennials, who are now aged 21-32 (I have three of them) are suspicious of government, have a strong anti-business bias, are opposed to new regulation, are highly … [Read more...]

April 4, 2013

Global Market Comments April 4, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (JULY 8 LONDON STRATEGY LUNCHEON) (ANOTHER DINNER WITH ROBERT REICH), (TESTIMONIAL), (CONNECTING UP AMERICA) … [Read more...]

July 8 London Strategy Luncheon

Big_Ben_8583a

Come join me for lunch for the Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Global Strategy Update, which I will be conducting in London on Monday, July 8, 2012. A three-course lunch will be followed by a PowerPoint presentation and an extended question and answer period. I’ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, currencies commodities, precious metals, and real estate. And to keep … [Read more...]

Another Dinner With Robert Reich

Robert Reich

I never tire of listening to economics guru, Robert Reich, speak about the economy. He was former Labor Secretary under Bill Clinton, and ran against Mitt Romney for governor of Massachusetts (he lost). He has published 13 books. Oh, and he dated our recent Secretary of State, Hillary Rodham, when they were in law school together at Yale. I got to know Bob well when I took … [Read more...]

Connecting Up America

Solar Panels

Until now, the country’s power grid has been divided into three unconnected, noncompetitive kingdoms (in the spirit of Game of Thrones), making transnational transmission impossible, leading to huge regional mispricing. While California and New York suffered from periodic brown outs and sky high prices, electricity was given away virtually for free in Texas. A group of power … [Read more...]

April 3, 2013

Global Market Comments April 3, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (APRIL 19 CHICAGO STRATEGY LUNCHEON), (PULLING THE RIPCORD ON UNITED), (UAL), (EASTER AT INCLINE VILLAGE) United Continental Holdings, Inc. (UAL) … [Read more...]

April 19 Chicago Strategy Luncheon

Chicago

Come join me for lunch for the Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Global Strategy Update, which I will be conducting in Chicago on Friday, April 19. A three-course lunch will be followed by a PowerPoint presentation and an extended question and answer period. I’ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, foreign currencies, commodities, precious metals, and real estate. And … [Read more...]

Pulling the Ripcord on United

3.21.2013 B

Delta announces that revenues grew by only 2% in the last quarter, so of course, they trash United Continental Group (UAL), taking it down 11% from the recent high.  As a former pilot myself, I always allow an extra safety margin separating me from a catastrophic event. This time it came in handy, my deep out-of-the-money call spread limiting my losses to a handful of basis … [Read more...]

Easter at Incline Village

Incline Village-Tahoe

It has definitely been a tough year for ski bums, massage therapists, and black jack dealers at Incline Village, Nevada. After getting a prodigious eight feet of snow over one weekend at Christmas, there has been nary a flake since then. Hats off to the Diamond Peak ski resort for trucking down enough snow from the higher elevations to keep the bunny slope running. However, … [Read more...]

April 2, 2013

Global Market Comments April 2, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (APRIL 12 SAN FRANCISCO STRATEGY LUNCHEON), (THE US DOMINANCE IN HIGHER EDUCATION), (AN EVENING WITH JAMES BAKER III), (THE CORN CRASH CONTINUES), (CORN), (WEAT), (SOYB), (DBA) Teucrium Corn (CORN) Teucrium Wheat (WEAT) Teucrium Soybean (SOYB) PowerShares DB Agriculture (DBA) … [Read more...]

April 12 San Francisco Strategy Luncheon

San Francisco

Come join me for lunch at the Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Global Strategy Update, which I will be conducting in San Francisco on Friday, April 12, 2013. An excellent meal will be followed by a wide-ranging discussion and an extended question and answer period. I’ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, currencies, commodities, precious metals, and real estate. And … [Read more...]

The Huge US Dominance in Higher Education

Graduation

I spent the weekend attending a graduation in Washington State, a stone’s throw from where the 2010 Winter Olympics were held. While sitting through the tedious reading of 550 names, and listening to the wailing bagpipes, I did several calculations on the back of the commencement program. I came to some startling conclusions. Higher education has grown into a gigantic … [Read more...]

An Evening With James Baker III

James Baker

“We have 3,500 nuclear weapons left over from the cold war we don’t need, they take 20 seconds to re-aim, we’re not afraid to use them. And by the way, they’re already aimed at you.” That is the approach James Baker III thinks America should take with Iran, Ronald Reagan’s Chief of Staff and Secretary of the Treasury and George H.W. Bush’s Secretary of State. At the same … [Read more...]

The Corn Crash Continues

US Drought Monitor

Pit traders of the ags are bruised, battered, and broken, in the wake of Thursday’s US Department of Agriculture crop report showing that there is a whole lot more food out there than anyone imagined possible. Corn was the real shocker. It has long been a nostrum in the ag markets that high prices cure high prices, and that is exactly what is happening now. In the wake of … [Read more...]

May 8 Las Vegas Strategy Luncheon

las-vegas-welcome-sign

Come join me for lunch at the Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Global Strategy Update, which I will be conducting in Las Vegas, Nevada on Wednesday, May 8, 2013. An excellent meal will be followed by a wide-ranging discussion and an extended question and answer period. I’ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, currencies, commodities, precious metals, and real estate. I … [Read more...]

April 1, 2013

Global Market Comments April 1, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (GET READY FOR THE NEXT GOLDEN AGE) … [Read more...]

Get Ready for the Next Golden Age

'57 T-Bird

I believe that the global economy is setting up for a new golden age reminiscent of the one the United States enjoyed during the 1950’s, and which I still remember fondly. This is not some pie in the sky prediction. It simply assumes a continuation of existing trends in demographics, technology, politics, and economics. The implications for your investment portfolio will be … [Read more...]

March 28, 2013

Global Market Comments March 28, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (APRIL 3 GLOBAL STRATEGY WEBINAR), (APRIL 19 CHICAGO STRATEGY LUNCHEON), (REAL ESTATE BIDDING WARS GO NATIONAL), (LEN), (KBH), (PHM) Lennar Corp. (LEN) KB Home (KBH) PulteGroup, Inc. (PHM) … [Read more...]

Don’t Miss the April 3 Global Strategy Webinar

Robin Williams

My next global strategy webinar will be held on Wednesday, April 3 at 12:00 noon EDT. This one will be open to the public, so login in early to get a space. I’ll be giving you my updated outlook on stocks, bonds, commodities, currencies, precious metal, and real estate. The goal is to find the cheapest assets in the world to buy, the most expensive to sell short, and the … [Read more...]

April 19 Chicago Strategy Luncheon

Chicago

Come join me for lunch for the Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Global Strategy Update, which I will be conducting in Chicago on Friday, April 19. A three-course lunch will be followed by a PowerPoint presentation and an extended question and answer period. I’ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, foreign currencies, commodities, precious metals, and real estate. And … [Read more...]

Real Estate Bidding Wars Go National

House Keys

Two years ago, there was an open house listed in the San Francisco Chronicle in my neighborhood for $1.8 million. It offered a cavernous 6,000 square feet, five bedrooms, a generous den I could use as a home office, a gourmet kitchen, and a spectacular view of the entire bay area. It was a slow Sunday, so I went to check it out. The home offered every imaginable upgrade, … [Read more...]

March 27, 2013

Global Market Comments March 27, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (APRIL 12 SAN FRANCISCO STRATEGY LUNCHEON), (WHY WARREN BUFFETT HATES GOLD),  (GLD), (GDX), (ABX), (US HEADED TOWARDS ENERGY INDEPENDENCE), (USO), (UNG), (XOM), (OXY), (KOL), (A TOUCHDOWN FOR USC) SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX) Barrick Gold Corporation (ABX) United States … [Read more...]

April 12 San Francisco Strategy Luncheon

San Francisco

Come join me for lunch at the Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Global Strategy Update, which I will be conducting in San Francisco on Friday, April 12, 2013. An excellent meal will be followed by a wide-ranging discussion and an extended question and answer period. I’ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, currencies, commodities, precious metals, and real estate. And … [Read more...]

Why Warren Buffet Hates Gold

Gold Coin

The 'Oracle of Omaha' expounded at length today on why he despises the barbarous relic. The sage doesn't really care about the yellow metal, whatever the price. He sees it primarily as a bet on fear. If investors are more afraid in a year than they are today, then you make money. If they aren't, then you lose money. If you took all the gold in the world, it would form a cube … [Read more...]

US Headed Towards Energy Independence

Man covered in Oil

My inbox was clogged with responses to my recent prediction of US energy independence. This will be the most important change to the global economy for the next 20 years. So I shall go into more depth. The energy research house, Raymond James, put out an estimate that domestic American oil production (USO) would rise from 5.6 million barrels a day to 9.1 million by 2015. … [Read more...]

A Touchdown for USC

David and Dana Dornsife

One of my many alma maters, the University of Southern California, announced that they had received their largest private donation in history. As a third generation alumni of this fanatical football factory (I went to school with Mark Harmon, Lynn Swan, and, oops, OJ Simpson), I still receive their alumni newsletter, where I learned the good news. David and Dana Dornsife … [Read more...]

March 26, 2013

Global Market Comments March 26, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (MAY 8 LAS VEGAS STRATEGY LUNCHEON), (HERE COMES THE ROLLING TOP), (VIX), (BAC), (UAL), (SPX), (IWM), (A DIFFERENT VIEW OF THE US) VOLATILITY S&P 500 (VIX) Bank of America Corporation (BAC) United Continental Holdings, Inc. (UAL) S&P 500 Large Cap Index (SPX) iShares Russell 2000 Index (IWM) … [Read more...]

May 8 Las Vegas Strategy Luncheon

las-vegas-welcome-sign

Come join me for lunch at the Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Global Strategy Update, which I will be conducting in Las Vegas, Nevada on Wednesday, May 8, 2013. An excellent meal will be followed by a wide-ranging discussion and an extended question and answer period. I’ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, currencies, commodities, precious metals, and real estate. I … [Read more...]

Here Comes the Rolling Top

Gorilla

The S&P 500 is now at 1,564, and most strategist forecasts for the end of 2013 hover around 1,550-1,600, plus or minus some spare change. So the next nine months are going to be incredibly boring. Or they won’t. Even in a bull market, one expects to see pullbacks of at least one third of the recent gain. Apply that logic towards the 224 points the (SPX) has tacked on … [Read more...]

A Different View of the US

US GDP

My mother lives in Pakistan, my daughter in Greece, and I have a ski chalet in Peru. What's more, I have strategy luncheons planned for Australia, Thailand, and Turkey. At least these would be my conclusions after looking at a map of the United States prepared by my esteemed former employer, The Economist magazine, renaming each state with its international equivalent in … [Read more...]

Airline Stocks Are Cleared for Take Off

3.21.2013 B

When I was a young, clueless investment banker at Morgan Stanley 30 years ago, the head of equity sales took me aside to give me some fatherly advice. Never touch the airlines. The profitability of this industry was totally dependent on fuel costs, interest rates, and the state of the economy, and management hadn't the slightest idea of what any of these were going to do. If … [Read more...]

March 22, 2013

Global Market Comments March 22, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (BUY EVERY BLACK SWAN), (SPY), (QQQ), (IWM), (AAPL), (UAL) (REVISITING CHENIERE ENERGY), (LNG), (UNG), (USO), (DVN), (CHK) SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) PowerShares QQQ (QQQ) iShares Russell 2000 Index (IWM) Apple Inc. (AAPL) United Continental Holdings, Inc. (UAL) Cheniere Energy, Inc. (LNG) United States … [Read more...]

Buy Every Black Swan

Ben Bernanke

At least that’s what Ben Bernanke thinks. He said as much in his press conference yesterday in the wake of the latest Fed statement. He might as well have waved a red Flag at a bull. The central bank took the opportunity to downgrade its US growth forecasts going forward as a result of sequestration imposed government spending cuts. What is impressive is how minimal the … [Read more...]

Revisiting Cheniere Energy (LNG)

Homes - rubble

Occasionally, I so totally knock the ball out of the park that I qualify for a place in the stock picker’s Hall of Fame. That was the case when I put out a recommendation to buy LNG exporter, Cheniere Energy (LNG), a year ago (click here  for Take a Look at Cheniere Energy (LNG). Since then, the stock has soared an eye popping 85%. The great thing here is that I think the … [Read more...]

March 21, 2013

Global Market Comments March 21, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (TRADE ALERT SERVICE SEIZES 31.8% GAIN IN 2013), (SPY), (FXY), (IWM, (BAC), (AIG), (FCX), (FXE), (FXB), (GLD), (USO), (THE BULL CASE FOR BANK OF AMERICA), (BAC), (WHEN STERILIZATION IS NOT A FORM OF BIRTH CONTROL), (TLT), (PCY), (MUB), (JNK), (TESTIMONIAL) SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) CurrencyShares Japanese … [Read more...]

Trade Alert Service Seizes 31.8% Profit in 2013

SPX

The Trade Alert Service of the Mad Hedge Fund Trader has posted a 31.8% profit year to date, taking it to another new all time high. The 27-month total return has punched through to an awesome 86.9%, compared to a miserable 18.5% return for the Dow average during the same period. That raises the average annualized return for the service to 36.5%, elevating it to the pinnacle of … [Read more...]

The Bull Case for Bank of America

BAC Poster

I’ll give you the quick and dirty argument behind buying Bank of America. For the past four years, the main argument for avoiding this stock like the plague was the hidden book of bad home loans it was hiding on its back bookshelf, thought to be in the tens of billions of dollars. This is why the shares spent most of the last half decade trading at a pitiful 50% of its book … [Read more...]

When Sterilization is Not a Form of Birth Control

Pills

I received a flurry of inquires the other day when Ben Bernanke mentioned the word “sterilization” in his recent congressional testimony. And he wasn’t giving advice to the country’s wayward teenaged girls, either. Sterilization refers to a specific style of monetary policy. Sterilized policies seek to manipulate the money markets without changing the overall money supply. … [Read more...]

March 20, 2013

Global Market Comments March 20, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (THE RECEPTIONS THE STARS FELL UPON), (NLR), (CCJ), (CORN), (WEAT), (SOYB), (DBA), (BECOME MY FACEBOOK FRIEND), (OIL ISN’T WHAT IT USED TO BE), (USO), (DIG), (DUG) Market Vectors Uranium+Nuclear Enrgy ETF (NLR) Cameco Corporation (CCJ) Teucrium Corn (CORN) Teucrium Wheat (WEAT) Teucrium Soybean … [Read more...]

The Reception the Stars Fell Upon

Atomic Explosion

My friend was having a hard time finding someone to attend a reception who was knowledgeable about financial markets, White House intrigue, international politics, and nuclear weapons. I asked who was coming. She said Reagan’s Treasury Secretary George Shultz, Clinton’s Defense Secretary William Perry, and former Senate Armed Services Chairman Sam Nunn. I said I’d be there … [Read more...]