January 15, 2015

Global Market CommentsJanuary 15, 2015Fiat Lux Featured Trade:(2014 TRADE ALERT REVIEW),(FXE), (EUO), (SPY), (AAPL), (GILD), (F), (GM), (TLT), (UNG), (VIX), (VXX) CurrencyShares Euro ETF (FXE)ProShares UltraShort Euro (EUO)SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)Apple Inc. (AAPL)Gilead Sciences Inc. (GILD)Ford Motor Co. (F)General Motors Company (GM)iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond … [Read more...]

2014 Trade Alert Review

John Thomas - Beach

When is the Mad Hedge Fund Trader a genius, and when is he a complete moron? That is the question readers have to ask themselves whenever their smart phones ping, and a new Trade Alert appears on their screens. I have to confess that I wonder myself sometimes. So I thought I would run my 2014 numbers to find out when I was a hero, and when I was a goat. The good news is … [Read more...]

January 14, 2015

Global Market Comments January 14, 2015 Fiat Lux SPECIAL SHORT SELLING ISSUE Featured Trade: (SHORT SELLING SCHOOL 101), (SH), (SDS), (PSQ), (DOG), (RWM), (SPXU), (AAPL), (VIX), (VXX), (IPO), (MTUM), (SPHB), (HDGE) ProShares Short S&P500 (SH) ProShares UltraShort S&P500 (SDS) ProShares Short QQQ (PSQ) ProShares Short Dow30 (DOG) ProShares Short Russell2000 (RWM) … [Read more...]

Short Selling School 101

Wile E. Coyote - TNT

There is nothing worse than closing the barn door after the horses have bolted. No doubt, you will receive a wealth of short selling and hedging ideas from your other research sources and the media at the next market bottom. That is always how it seems to play out. So I am going to get you out ahead of the curve, putting you through a refresher course on how to best trade … [Read more...]

January 14, 2015 – Quote of the Day

Lawn Smiley Face

“When asked how he manages the time to be chairman of Microsoft, run the world’s largest charity, and raise three kids, Bill Gates answered “I don’t mow the lawn.” … [Read more...]

January 13, 2015

Global Market CommentsJanuary 13, 2015Fiat Lux Featured Trade:(A DAY IN THE LIFE OF THE MAD HEDGE FUND TRADER),(SPY), (SPX), (QQQ), (AAPL), (VIX), (FSLR), (SCTY), (TLT), (TBT), (FXE), (GLD), (GDX), (USO) SPDR S&P 500 (SPY)S&P 500 Index (SPX)PowerShares QQQ (QQQ)Apple Inc. (AAPL)VOLATILITY S&P 500 (^VIX)First Solar, Inc. (FSLR)SolarCity Corporation (SCTY)iShares … [Read more...]

A Day in the Life of the Mad Hedge Fund Trader

John Thomas

Diary Entry for Monday, January 12, 2015 Dear Diary, 4:30 PM Sunday-the day before - Thought I’d check my Bloomberg to see how the Asian markets were opening. Yikes! Oil is down another buck. Looks like it is going to be a “RISK OFF” day. Better fasten my seat belt, put on my hard hat, and get ready for a rough day. No rest for the wicked. At least for the first 15 minutes. … [Read more...]

January 13, 2015 – Quote of the Day

zimbabwe-1

“Over the long term, all of the fiat currencies of the world are involved in a competitive devaluation. The structural stresses in most of the western economies are such that centrals banks will attempt to continue to substitute liquidity for solvency.” said Rick Rule, chairman of Sprott US Holdings, a precious metals specialist. … [Read more...]

January 12, 2015

Global Market CommentsJanuary 12, 2015Fiat Lux Featured Trade:(THROWING IN THE TOWEL ON THE BOND MARKET),(TBT), (TLT), (LQD), (MUB), (ELD),(THE 1% AND THE BOND MARKET),(TLT), (TBT), (MUB), (LQD), (ELD), (JNK) ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (TBT)iShares Trust - iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT)iShares Trust - iShares iBoxx $ Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF … [Read more...]

Throwing in the Towel on the Bond Market

John Thomas

Here are the long-winded, feeble bunch of excuses I promised you. I have broken every rule in my trading book hanging on to my position in the (TBT) for the past four months. I ignored my own stop losses. I listened to the morons on TV saying interest rates were about to spike up. I took the pile of charts that were telling me there was no bottom in sight, and deliberately … [Read more...]

The 1% and the Bond Market

Dracula

As a follow up the Mea Culpa above, I thought I’d delve into one of the more mysterious reasons why the bond market keeps going from strength to strength. To a man, hedge fund traders expected bond prices to take a dive this year, and for yields to soar. Isn’t that what’s supposed to happen in recovering economies? Instead, we got the opposite, and yields have plunged, from … [Read more...]

January 9, 2015

Global Market Comments January 9, 2015 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (A VERY CHICAGO CHRISTMAS), (TESTIMONIAL), (BREAKFAST WITH MOHAMED EL-ERIAN) … [Read more...]

A Very Chicago Christmas

John Thomas - Art Museum

There is nothing more enjoyable than partaking in an all you can eat Christmas buffet lunch with a group of friends. That was how my Chicago Global Strategy Luncheon turned out two weeks ago. Guests came from Detroit, Canada, and remote Illinois. The abundance of roast beef, ham, and turkey on our plates matched the tales of outsized trading returns in 2014. We all had much … [Read more...]

Testimonial

John Thomas - Hiking

Thank you for talking with me on the phone right before Christmas.  I enjoyed our conversation and look forward to meeting you at your Incline Village Global Strategy Luncheon in the spring.  I will also look forward to the hike up to 12,000 ft. after our lunch, (are you sure you want to spot me by carrying a 60 lbs pack?). I usually stop running at 12,000 just saying. LOL.  … [Read more...]

Breakfast with Mohamed El-Erian

Mohamed El-Erian

Passing through Los Angeles for a day, I thought I would take a walk down Nostalgia Lane and have breakfast at the historic Langham Huntington Hotel, the venue for my 1970 senior prom. I was half way through my eggs Benedict in the Terrace Room when, who sits at the next table, but bond giant PIMCO’s brilliant former CEO and co-CIO, Mohamed El-Erian. That’s the last time he … [Read more...]

January 9, 2015 – Quote of the Day

firingsquad

“If You’ve lived long enough on Wall Street, you know that we shoot our wounded and eat our young,” said Brad Hintz, an analyst with Sandford Bernstein. … [Read more...]

January 8, 2015

Global Market CommentsJanuary 8, 2015Fiat Lux Featured Trade:(MAD DAY TRADER JIM PARKER’S Q1, 2015 VIEWS),(SPY), (XLV), (XLK), (PCLN), (F), (TLT), (TBT),(FXE), (EUO), (FXA), (FXB),(GLD), (GDX), (SLV),(USO)(VIX), (VXX)(THE MARKETS ARE NOT RIGGED)(TESTIMONIAL) SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY)Health Care Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLV)The Select Sector SPDR Trust - The Technology … [Read more...]

Mad Day Trader Jim Parker’s Q1, 2015 Views

Jim Parker

Mad Day Trader Jim Parker is expecting the first quarter of 2015 to offer plenty of volatility and loads of great trading opportunities. He thinks the scariest moves may already be behind us. After a ferocious week of decidedly ‘RISK OFF” markets, the sweet spots going forward will be of the “RISK ON” variety. Sector leadership could change daily, with a brutal rotation, … [Read more...]

The Markets Are Not Rigged

Flash Boys

I managed to get a copy of “Flash Boys”, Michael Lewis’s latest bestseller about high frequency trading, and plowed through it over the weekend. In it, Lewis claims the markets are “rigged” for the ordinary investor, and they are getting ripped off, in effect, paying a giant “tax” to Wall Street to get their trades done. Nothing could be further from the truth. I have known … [Read more...]

Testimonial

John Thomas

Hi John, I now have some great strategies, which are working well thanks to you. I just need to follow them, stop listening to others, and stick more to my own plan, and of course your research. All the best for the festive season. Dallas Melbourne, Australia   Hatchet Throwing Contest at Fort Vancouver, Washington … [Read more...]

January 7, 2015

Global Market Comments January 7, 2015 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (A VERY WESTERN CHRISTMAS), (THE BLACK SWAN SOLUTION TO OUR ENERGY PROBLEMS), (USO), (TSLA), (GE), (TESTIMONIAL) United States Oil ETF (USO)Tesla Motors, Inc. (TSLA)General Electric Company (GE)     … [Read more...]

A Very Western Christmas

Candy Cane Express

This year I had the pleasure of spending a nostalgic Christmas day in Virginia City, Nevada, now a national historic monument. The old western town is the home of the famed Comstock load, once the world’s largest silver deposit, discovered in 1859. The ore mined here played a major role in building San Francisco into an important city, and financed the Union’s victory in the … [Read more...]

The “Black Swan” Solution to Our Energy Problems

LED Lights

I firmly believe that simple solutions to our energy problems are in the process of coming out of the blue, and are something no one is thinking about now. Add up the contributions of many small improvements, and the cumulative change will alter our economic future beyond all recognition. Here are two of them. General Electric (GE) is now mass-producing their “Smart Energy … [Read more...]

Testimonial

Jim Parker

Dear Jim Parker, I cannot thank you enough for the service that you are providing.  In my case, I can honestly say that you are accomplishing your goals of enabling me to trade profitably.   I wish you a well-earned rest and the best of joy with your family and friends during this season.    Rene Y. Retired Canadian Farmer   … [Read more...]

January 7, 2015 – Quote of the Day

David Tepper

“2015 is setting up to be a repeat of 1999,” the year when NASDAQ delivered a nonstop melt up, rocketing by a stunning 85%, said my friend and hedge fund legend, David Tepper. … [Read more...]

January 6, 2015

Global Market CommentsJanuary 6, 2015Fiat Lux 2015 Annual Asset Class Review FOR PAID SUBSCRIBERS ONLY Featured Trades:(SPX), (QQQ), (XLF), (XLE), (XLI), (XLY), (EEM), (SCTY), (TAN),(TLT), (TBT), (JNK), (PHB), (HYG), (PCY), (MUB), (HCP)(FXE), (EUO), (FXC), (FXA), (YCS), (FXY), (CYB)(FCX), (VALE), (MOO), (DBA), (MOS), (MON), (AGU), (POT), (PHO), (FIW), (CORN), (WEAT), (SOYB), … [Read more...]

2015 Annual Asset Class Review

Zephyr

I am once again writing this report from a first class sleeping cabin on Amtrak’s California Zephyr. By day, I have two comfortable seats facing each other next to a broad window. At night, they fold into bunk beds, a single and a double. There is a shower, but only Houdini could get in and out of it. We are now pulling away from Chicago’s Union Station, leaving its hurried … [Read more...]

January 5, 2015

Global Market Comments January 5, 2015 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (THE AMERICAN ONSHORING TREND IS ACCELERATING), (GE), (TSLA), (TESTIMONIAL) General Electric Company (GE)Tesla Motors, Inc. (TSLA) … [Read more...]

The American Onshoring Trend is Accelerating

Leonard DiCaprio

Onshoring, the return of US manufacturing from abroad, is rapidly gathering pace. It is increasingly playing a crucial part in the unfolding American industrial renaissance. It could well develop into the most important new trend on the global economic scene during the early 21st century. It is also paving the way for a return of the roaring twenties to our home shores. Of … [Read more...]

Testimonial

John Thomas - Melbourne

Thanks for your very informative daily updates and stories. I subscribe to four daily investment advisors and yours are the only one I always read and almost always follow. I followed your trades to the letter and most were successful. The problem was I was not trading live (always at least half a day late and sometimes a full day due to the time difference (US versus AUD), … [Read more...]

January 5, 2015 – Quote of the Day

Grave Diggers

“Guys that are short, they better have a shovel to dig themselves out of the grave,” said legendary hedge fund manager, David Tepper, of Appaloosa Management. … [Read more...]

January 2, 2015

Global Market Comments January 2, 2015 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (THE LONG VIEW ON EMERGING MARKETS), (HOW TO AVOID THE PONZI SCHEME TRAP), (MURRAY SAYLE: THE PASSING OF A GIANT IN JOURNALISM), (TESTIMONIAL)   … [Read more...]

The Long View on Emerging Markets

China

I managed to catch a few comments in the distinct northern accent of Jim O'Neil, the fabled analyst who invented the 'BRIC' term, and who was later kicked upstairs to the chairman's seat at Goldman Sachs International (GS) in London. Jim thinks that it is still the early days for the space, and that these countries have another ten years of high growth ahead of them. As I have … [Read more...]

How to Avoid the Ponzi Scheme Trap

Bernie Madoff

I spent a sad and depressing, but highly instructional evening with Dr. Stephen Greenspan, who had lost most of his personal fortune with Bernie Madoff. The University of Connecticut psychology professor had poured the bulk of his savings into Sandra Mansky's Tremont feeder fund; receiving convincing trade confirms and rock solid custody statements from the Bank of New … [Read more...]

Murray Sayle: The Passing of a Giant in Journalism

Murray Sayle

I was saddened when I heard of the death of my close friend, the Australian, Murray Sayle a few years ago, after his long battle with Parkinson's disease at the age of 84. Murray was one of the giants of journalism in the second half of the 20th century. He started by editing the newspaper at University of Sydney, where his incendiary opinions got him expelled from school. It … [Read more...]

Testimonial

BusinessJohnThomasProfileMap2-1

We view The Mad Hedge Fund Trader as a vital resource that helps us focus on major market trends that are most likely to make money over time. It is a resource that helps us filter out the daily noise in various markets and the mostly irrelevant commentary of TV's talking heads. Unlike many newsletters that focus on one strategy or asset class The Mad Hedge Fund Trader's … [Read more...]

January 2, 2015 – Quote of the Day

Walter Bagehot

“A central bank is best that governs least, but is prepared to govern radically when called upon,” said 19th century man of letters, Walter Bagehot, an early editor of The Economist … [Read more...]

December 31, 2014

Global Market Comments December 31, 2014 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (FRIDAY APRIL 3 HONOLULU, HAWAII STRATEGY LUNCHEON), (WILL SYNBIO SAVE OR DESTROY THE WORLD?), (XLV), (XPH), (XBI), (MON), (IBM), (GOOG), (AAPL), (CSCO) Health Care Select Sector SPDR (XLV) SPDR S&P Pharmaceuticals ETF (XPH) SPDR S&P Biotech ETF (XBI) Monsanto Company (MON) International Business … [Read more...]

Will SynBio Save or Destroy the World?

Man Bio Hazard Suit

Some 40 years ago, when I was a biotechnology student at UCLA, a handful of graduate students speculated about how dangerous our work really was. It only took us an hour to figure out how to synthesize a microbe that had a 99% fatality rate, was immune to antibiotics, and was so simple it could be produced in your home kitchen. Basically, a bunch of bored students discovered a … [Read more...]

December 31, 2014 – Quote of the Day

Obama Inaugeration

“It is very important for President Obama to succeed,” said former President George W. Bush to Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates, three weeks after the inauguration. … [Read more...]

December 30, 2014

Global Market Comments December 30, 2014 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (THE SECOND AMERICAN INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION), (INDU), (SPY), (QQQ), (USO), (UNG), (GLD), (DBA), (TESTIMONIAL) Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDU) SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) PowerShares QQQ (QQQ) United States Oil ETF (USO) United States Natural Gas ETF (UNG) SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) PowerShares … [Read more...]

The Second American Industrial Revolution

John Thomas

Circulating among Europe's top global strategists last summer, visiting their corner offices, camping out in their vacation villas, or cruising on their yachts, I am increasingly hearing about a new investment theme that will lead markets for the next 20 years: The Second American Industrial Revolution. It goes something like this. You remember the first Industrial Revolution, … [Read more...]

December 30, 2014 – Quote of the Day

20141230-4

"The Fed is not worried about inflation in the next few years and want growth first, growth second, and growth third. With the stabilization of Europe, the apparent pick up in China, and a US economy still on a reasonable footing, the Fed's heavy leaning to a growth policy should lead to a pretty favorable environment for the markets," said legendary hedge fund manager, David … [Read more...]

December 29, 2014

Global Market Comments December 29, 2013 Fiat Lux Featured Trades: (BE CAREFUL WHO YOU SNITCH ON), (A CONVERSATION WITH THE BOOTS ON THE GROUND), (DINNER WITH JOSEPH STIGLITZ) … [Read more...]

A Conversation with the Boots on the Ground

Defense Language Institute

I have spent many hours speaking at length with the generals who are running our wars in the Middle East, like David Petraeus, and James E. Cartwright. To get the boots on the ground view, I attended the graduation of a friend at the Defense Language Institute in Monterey, California, the world's preeminent language training facility. As I circulated at the reception at the … [Read more...]

Dinner with Joseph Stiglitz

Joseph Stiglitz

The great thing about interviewing Joseph Stiglitz over dinner is that you don't have to ask any questions. You just turn him on and he spits out one zinger after another. And he does this in a kibitzing, wizened, grandfatherly manner like one would expect from a character that just walked off the set of Fiddler on the Roof. The unfortunate thing is that you also don't get to … [Read more...]

December 29, 2014 – Quote of the Day

Ben Bernanke

“We’re still operating off of Jackson Hole, 2011 when Ben Bernanke delivered his famous speech preceding quantitative easing,” said foreign exchange trader, Ira Harris. … [Read more...]

December 26, 2014

Global Market CommentsDecember 26, 2013Fiat Lux Featured Trade:(CHINA’S LONG AND WINDING ROAD), (FXI), (CYB),(INDUSTIRES YOU WILL NEVER HEAR FROM ME ABOUT) iShares China Large-Cap (FXI)WisdomTree Chinese Yuan Strategy ETF (CYB) … [Read more...]

China’s Long and Winding Road

Chinese Woman

I spent the evening speaking to Gao Jie, a Beijing civil judge who left the bench to join China's growing environmental movement when her kids came home from school one day coughing and wheezing. You only have to inhale in the capitol city these days to understand that they have a huge problem there. One of the dirty little secrets of international trade for the last three … [Read more...]

Industries You Will Never Hear From Me About

Arnold Swartenegger

The focus of this letter is to show people how to make money through investing in fast growing, highly profitable companies which have stiff, long term macroeconomic winds at their backs. That means I ignore a large part of the US economy whose time has passed and are headed for the dustbin of history. According to the Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics, the ten … [Read more...]

December 26, 2014 – Quote of the Day

Dinasaur

“People are investing with a rear view mirror. Last year, you had people legitimately scared out of the market. Unfortunately, you are losing a generation of investors at a time when they ought to be thinking about buying high quality stocks,” said Hersh Cohen of Clearbridge Advisors. … [Read more...]

December 24, 2014

Global Market Comments December 24, 2014 Featured Trades: (A CHRISTMAS STORY) … [Read more...]

A Christmas Story

John Thomas with Santa

When I was growing up in Los Angeles during the fifties, the most exciting day of the year was when my dad took me to buy a Christmas tree. With its semi desert climate, Southern California offered pine trees that were scraggly at best, and we didn’t want to chop down the view that we had. So the Southern Pacific Railroad made a big deal out of bringing trees down from much … [Read more...]

December 24, 2014 – Quote of the Day

ice cream

“This isn’t a choice between vanilla and chocolate folks, it’s all rocky road: a few marshmallows to get you excited before the elections, but with a lot of nuts to ruin the aftermath,” said the ever insightful, Bill Gross, at PIMCO. … [Read more...]

December 23, 2014

Global Market CommentsDecember 23, 2014Fiat Lux Featured Trade:(INDIA IS CATCHING UP WITH CHINA),(WHO SAYS HEDGE FUNDS AREN’T ADDING VALUE?)(PIN), (FXI)(PETER F. DRUCKER ON MANAGEMENT) PowerShares India ETF (PIN)iShares China Large-Cap (FXI) … [Read more...]

Who Says Hedge Funds Aren’t Adding Value?

Topiary

According to my old friend, Rick Sopher, chairman of LCH Investments in London, the top ten hedge funds have earned $153 billion for their investors since inception. Rick, who runs his business from an elegant flat on posh Eaton Square, compiled the list after a comprehensive survey of the still operating 7,000 hedge funds worldwide. It is dominated by marquee names like Bruce … [Read more...]

Peter F. Drucker on Management

The Essential Drucker

If you have been living in a cave for the last 74 years and missed the work of management guru, Peter F. Drucker, here is your chance to catch up. I just finished reading The Essential Drucker, a weighty tome of 368 pages which summarized the high points and pearls of wisdom of the author's 38 books published since 1939. A self-described 'social ecologist', Drucker was a … [Read more...]

December 23, 2014 – Quote of the Day

scale

“You can reduce discretionary spending down to zero and it won’t have much impact on our fiscal problems because it’s such a small proportion of the total,” said Ben Bernanke, chairman of the Federal Reserve. … [Read more...]

December 22, 2014

Global Market CommentsDecember 22, 2014Fiat Lux Featured Trade:(LAST CHANCE TO ATTEND THE CHICAGO TUESDAY, DECEMBER 23 GLOBAL STRATEGY LUNCHEON)(THE ONE BRIGHT SPOT IN REAL ESTATE),(A SHORT HISTORY OF HEDGE FUNDS),(THE POPULATION BOMB ECHOES), (POT), (MOS), (AGU),(THANK GOODNESS I DON’T LIVE IN SWEDEN), (EWD) Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan, Inc. (POT)The Mosaic Company … [Read more...]

Last Chance to Attend the Chicago Tuesday, December 23 Global Strategy Luncheon

Chicago

Come join me for lunch for the Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Global Strategy Update, which I will be conducting in Chicago on Tuesday, December 23. A three course lunch will be followed by a PowerPoint presentation and an extended question and answer period. I’ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, foreign currencies, commodities, precious metals, and real estate. And … [Read more...]

The One Bright Spot in Real Estate

US Population 2010-2050

I feel obliged to reveal one corner of this bubbling market that might actually make sense. By 2050 the population of California will soar from 37 million to 50 million, and the US from 300 million to 400 million, according to data released by the US Census Bureau and the CIA fact Book (check out the population pyramid below). That means enormous demand for the low end of the … [Read more...]

A Short History of Hedge Funds

Money, Arms Full

Legendary Fortune Magazine editor, Winslow Jones, created the first hedge fund out of a shabby office on Broadway in New York City in 1948, and generated monster returns over the next 20 years. He got the idea of a 20% performance bonus, now an industry standard, from ancient Phoenician sea captains who kept a fifth of the profits from successful voyages. Jones must have had … [Read more...]

The ‘Population Bomb’ Echoes

Fruit Market

Pack your portfolios with agricultural plays like Potash (POT), Mosaic (MOS), and Agrium (AGU) if Dr. Paul Ehrlich is just partially right about the impending collapse in the world's food supply. You might even throw in long positions in wheat (WEAT), corn (CORN), soybeans (SOYB), and rice. The never dull and often controversial Stanford biology professor told me he expects … [Read more...]

Thank Goodness I Don’t Live in Sweden!

Model

I recently found the chart below showing world tax rates as a percentage of GDP for the past 40 years. Sweden suffers the world's heaviest tax burden at 51%, compared to only 27% in the US. The US has among the world's lowest tax burdens in terms of actual taxes paid, which has been falling for the last ten years. Listening to TV pundits, you would think we had the world's … [Read more...]

December 19, 2014

Global Market Comments December 19, 2014 Fiat Lux SPECIAL END OF YEAR ISSUE Featured Trade: (GO LONG CHRISTMAS CHEER AND HOT BUTTERED RUM), (MY LAST RESEARCH PIECE OF THE YEAR) … [Read more...]

A Thank You from The Mad Hedge Fund Trader

John Thomas with Santa

You are in safe hands now, with your trading portfolios up 34% on the year, if you had followed every one of my Trade Alerts to the letter. So I am calling it quits for the year. By the time you read this, I will be winging my way to Chicago to deliver the last global strategy lunch of the year (click here to buy). After that, I will be making a beeline for my beachfront … [Read more...]

My Last Research Piece of the Year

Jack Nicholson

All work and no play makes Jack a dull boy. All work and no play makes Jack a dull boy. All work and no play makes Jack a dull boy. All work and no play makes Jack a dull boy. All work and no play makes Jack a dull boy. All work and no play makes Jack a dull boy. All work and no play makes Jack a dull boy. All work and no play makes Jack a dull boy. All work and no play makes … [Read more...]

December 19, 2014 – Quote of the Day

Woman-Christmas

“If the Fed brings a lump of coal in the form of a taper, then they better brings some candy canes for the kids as well. It looks like they did,” said Bill Gross, CEO of bond giant, PIMCO. … [Read more...]

December 18, 2014

Global Market CommentsDecember 18, 2014Fiat Lux Featured Trade:(VOLATILITY HERE IS PEAKING), (VXX), (VIX), (XIV),(HEDGE FUNDS: THE NEW DUMB MONEY)(TESTIMONIAL) iPath S&P 500 VIX ST Futures ETN (VXX)VOLATILITY S&P 500 (^VIX)VelocityShares Daily Inverse VIX ST ETN (XIV) … [Read more...]

Volatility Here is Peaking

Man-Pogo Stick

I am one of those cheapskates who buys Christmas ornaments by the bucket load from Costco in January for ten cents on the dollar, because my eleven month theoretical return on capital comes close to 1,000%. I also like buying flood insurance in the middle of the summer when the forecast here in California is for endless days of sunshine. That is what we are facing now with … [Read more...]

Hedge Funds: The New Dumb Money

Carrey & Daniels - Dumb & Dumber

Much of the recent buying of stocks has been generated by hedge funds panicking to cover shorts. Convinced of the imminent collapse of Europe, the impotence of governments to do anything about it, and slow economic growth at home, many managers were running a maximum short for the umpteenth time, and were forced to cover at a loss. Meet the new dumb money: hedge funds. When I … [Read more...]

Testimonial

John Thomas

Thanks so much, John and Jim, for coming up with The Mad Day Trader! I especially appreciate that you'll be using ETFs (they are so convenient...and I can trade without triggering short-term taxes, in my IRA). I Also like that you're including a focus on metals, as I'm already trading (GLD), (SLV) and their inverses (DGZ), (GLL), (ZSL), and (DUST) on my own (and making … [Read more...]

December, 18 2014 – Quote of the Day

Monopoly guy smoking cigar

“Capitalism is the astounding belief that the most wickedest of men will do the most wickedest of things for the greatest good of everyone,” said the legendary economist, John Maynard Keynes, founder of the modern monetary system. … [Read more...]

December 17, 2014

Global Market CommentsDecember 17, 2014Fiat Lux Featured Trade:(CHICAGO TUESDAY, DECEMBER 23 GLOBAL STRATEGY LUNCHEON),(WHY ALL SHARES ARE NOW OIL SHARES),(USO), (FXE), (TLT), (FXY), (BHP), (KOL), (CU), (RSX),(THE RECEPTION THAT THE STARS FELL UPON),(NLR), (CCJ), (CORN), (WEAT), (SOYB), (DBA) United States Oil ETF (USO)CurrencyShares Euro ETF (FXE)iShares 20+ Year Treasury … [Read more...]

Chicago Tuesday, December 23 Global Strategy Luncheon

Chicago

Come join me for lunch for the Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Global Strategy Update, which I will be conducting in Chicago on Tuesday, December 23. A three course lunch will be followed by a PowerPoint presentation and an extended question and answer period. I’ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, foreign currencies, commodities, precious metals, and real estate. And … [Read more...]

Why All Shares Are Now Oil Shares

roller_coaster_monks

After the market closes every night, I usually don a 60 pound backpack and climb the 2,000 foot mountain in my back yard. To pass the time, I listen to audio books on financial and historical topics, about 200 a year (I’ve really got President Grover Cleveland nailed!). That’s if the howling packs of coyotes don’t bother me too much. I also engage in mental calisthenics, … [Read more...]

The Reception That the Stars Fell Upon

George Shultz

My friend was having a hard time finding someone to attend a reception who was knowledgeable about financial markets, White House intrigue, international politics, and nuclear weapons. I asked who was coming. She said Reagan’s Treasury Secretary George Shultz, Clinton’s Defense Secretary William Perry, and Senate Armed Services Chairman Sam Nunn. I said I’d be there wearing my … [Read more...]

December 17, 2014 – Quote of the Day

Student

“The rule of thumb is to do your homework, do your analysis, don’t give up prudent risk management for the sake of certain fads. Look for real valuations, and stay true to your time frames,” said Marc Chandler, the global head of currency strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman. … [Read more...]

December 16, 2014

Global Market CommentsDecember 16, 2014Fiat Lux Featured Trade:(DECEMBER 17 GLOBAL STRATEGY WEBINAR),(END OF THE COMMODITY SUPERCYCLE),(LINE), (SLV), (PPLT), (PALL), (CU), (BHP), (USO),(CORN), (WEAT), (SOYB), (DBA), (RSX) Linn Energy, LLC (LINE)iShares Silver Trust (SLV)ETFS Physical Platinum (PPLT)ETFS Physical Palladium (PALL)First Trust ISE Global Copper ETF (CU)BHP … [Read more...]

End of the Commodity Super Cycle

Gold Coins

When the Trade Alerts quit working. I stop sending them out. That’s my trading strategy right now. It’s as simple as that. So when I received a dozen emails this morning asking if it is time to double up on Linn Energy (LINE), I shot back “Not yet!” There is no point until oil puts in a convincing bottom, and that may be 2015 business. Traders have been watching in complete … [Read more...]

December 16, 2014 – Quote of the Day

Mouse Cuffs

“The three most harmful addictions are heroin, carbohydrates, and a monthly salary,” said Nassim Nicholas Taleb, author of Antifragile: Things That Gain from Disorder.” … [Read more...]

December 15, 2014

Global Market Comments December 15, 2014 Fiat Lux Featured Trade: (A DAY WITH TOM FRIEDMAN OF THE NEW YORK TIMES) (THE BEST FINANCIAL BOOK EVER), (THE NEW COLD WAR) … [Read more...]

It Rains in California!

Golden Gate Bridge

As I write to you, torrential sheets of rain are pounding the windows of my home. The wind is shaking the building down to the foundation. I’m typing as fast as I can, and praying that the power can stay on long enough for me to finish this piece. And, oh yes, people are cheering. The “Pineapple Express” that barreled in on we San Franciscans from Hawaii is expected to dump … [Read more...]

Testimonial

John Thomas with Mayor of Zermatt

Thanks to both of you for taking the time to answer me back. I am going to hang in there. I like your newsletter because the unbiased perspectives you share and the way in which you look at market opportunities in a realistic, factual manner.  I am just hoping to turn that advantage into profit and learn. I don’t like financial advisors as they open your account, offer canned … [Read more...]

December 11, 2014

Global Market CommentsDecember 11, 2014Fiat Lux Featured Trade:(OIL GRINCH KO’S CHRISTMAS RALLY),(SPY), (OXY), (XOM), (SCTY), (FSLR), (VSLR), (XLK), (BBH),(TESTIMONIAL),(AN EVENING WITH CONGRESS BARNEY FRANK) SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY)Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM)SolarCity Corporation (SCTY)First Solar, Inc. (FSLR)Vivint Solar, Inc. … [Read more...]

Oil Grinch KO’s Christmas Rally

Goldilocks

The continuing collapse in oil prices has finally spilled over into the real world, at its worst knocking 290 points off of the Dow Average yesterday. Traders who grew accustomed to a market that went up like clockwork every day were in for a rude awakening. Is the positive case for equities coming to an end? Is the bull dead? Not yet. All we are seeing is a normal 5%-7% … [Read more...]

Testimonial

John Thomas

Just want to let you know that I have had some great trades with you this year. I made the most money on (FXE), with (IWM) in second place. (IBM) was in third place - with one trade from you and comments from Jim Parker. I've found that when Jim says a stock has hit bottom it's usually a good time to buy, even if he doesn't send out a Trade Alert. You were right when you said … [Read more...]

An Evening with Congressman Barney Frank

John Thomas and Barney Frank

One of the highlights of last year’s SkyBridge Alternatives Conference was the blowout party on Wednesday night (click the following for the blow by blow description at http://madhedgefundradio.com/report-on-the-skybridge-alternatives-conference/). Seeking refuge from a band that was blasting my ears out, and fleeing the nubile young bodies that kept bumping up against me and … [Read more...]

December 11, 2014 – Quote of the Day

Dumb & Dumber

“I try to buy stock in businesses that are so wonderful that an idiot can run them. Because sooner or later, one will.” said oracle of Omaha, Warren Buffett. … [Read more...]

December 10, 2014

Global Market CommentsDecember 10, 2014Fiat Lux Featured Trade:(UPDATE ON LINN ENERGY), (LINE),(THE MYSTERY OF THE MISSING $100 BILLION), (TLT),(MY FAVORITE SECRET ECONOMIC INDICATOR) Linn Energy, LLC (LINE)iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT) … [Read more...]

Update on Linn Energy (LINE)

LINN Energy

After the catastrophic 25% fall in the units of Linn Energy (LINE) over the past three days, I thought I’d better take another look at the company. The company’s units have now crashed by an eye popping 55% since the May $31 high. The units have been trading as if the company is imminently going bankrupt. The contradiction is that it clearly isn’t. This is basically a healthy … [Read more...]

The Mystery of the Missing $100 billion

Gold Bars

Now you see it, now you don’t. That was the question observers of international monetary flows were asking after last week’s data release from the Federal Reserve. These showed that some $104.5 billion in Treasury securities held in custody accounts were withdrawn. It doesn’t mean that these bonds were sold. You certainly would have noticed this in the Treasury market, where … [Read more...]

My Favorite Secret Economic Indicator

Graduation

It was with an enormous sense of pride and relief that I watched the last of my kids graduate from the University of California at Berkeley. Clutching his hard fought degree in political economics in hand, Robert posed for photos among friends, with thousands of beaming parents looking on. His mother died ten years ago, and raising three kids alone, getting them through top … [Read more...]