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DougD

A Snapshot of America?s Native Indian Economy

Diary

When I was remodeling my 160 year old London house, the chimney was in desperate need of attention. After the bricklayer crawled up the fireplace, he found a yellowed and somewhat singed envelope addressed to Santa Claus. Thinking it was placed there by my kids, he handed it over to me. In it was a letter dated Christmas, 1910 asking for a Red Indian suit.

Europeans have long had a fascination with our Native Americans. So in preparation for my upcoming European strategy luncheon tour I thought I would get myself up to date about our earliest North American residents.

Business is booming these days on Indian reservations, or it isn?t, depending on where they live. Of the country?s 565 reservations, some 239 have moved into the casino business and the cash flow has followed. In 2010, Indian gaming reaped some $26.7 billion in revenues, or some $9,275 per indigenous native. That is a stunning 44% of America?s total casino revenues.

Some, like the Pequot tribe?s massive Foxwood operation just two hours from New York City, now the world?s largest casino, once had money raining down upon it. But the casino grew so large that it entirely occupied the diminutive Connecticut reservation allocated to it by an obscure 17th century.

During the salad days, the profits were so enormous that an annual $250,000 stipend was paid to each officially registered tribal member. A poker boom helped. No surprise that the tribe grew from 167 to 665 members during the last 30 years. Today, the operation is burdened with $2.5 billion in debt, thanks to some bad investments and an ill-timed expansion.

Casinos in more rural locations in the far west distant from population centers have fared less well. Those that contracted out for professional management from Las Vegas and Atlantic City firms, like Harrah?s, MGM, and Caesars, earn a modest living. But the reservations attempting local management on their own fall victim to inefficiencies, incompetence, corruption, over hiring of locals, and outright theft. Believe it or not, it is possible to lose money in the casino business, and some have had to shut down.

Overbuilding is another problem. It Northern New Mexico you can find several casinos within five miles of each other competing for the same customer. Most of their clients (read losers) are in fact local tribal members, the same individuals these houses are intended to help.

The 326 tribes that avoided the casino industry do so at the cost of a big hit to their standard of living. That explains why Native American median household income reaches only $35,062, compared to $50,046 for the US as a whole. Many, like the numerous Hopi, shun it because of their religion.

Without gambling there are few economic opportunities on the reservations. The parched conditions of the west limit farming. Unemployment runs as high as 80% on some reservations, such as the White Mountain Apaches. As a result, a high proportion of the country?s 2.9 million Native Americans are wards of the federal government, living on food stamps and other government handouts.

That?s not how it was supposed to be. The first modern reservation was set up for the Navajo tribe in 1851 at a baking hell hole on the Pecos River, with the intention of enforcing a primitive form of apartheid to insure their survival. Today, they are the most populous tribe, with 160,000, owning the largest reservation, at 24,000 square miles, mostly in Arizona.

Those who signed treaties early survived, which gave them status as an independent nation but ceded all matters regarding defense to the federal government. In fact the Iroquois, Sioux, and the Chippewa separately declared war on Germany during WWII. Some even issue their own passports. Those that didn?t had to settle for much smaller reservations, or got wiped out.

In 1975, congress passed the Indian Self-Determination Act, which devolved power from the government to the tribes. Florida?s Seminole tribe won the right to open a casino in court in 1981, which was confirmed by the Supreme Court in 1987. After that, it was off to the races, with Indian bingo parlors sprouting across the country.

During the 19th century Indian wars when hundreds of thousands died, the practice was to attack a wagon train, kill all the men, marry the women, and adopt the children. As a result, I am descended from three different tribes, the Delaware, Sioux, and the Cherokee, as are about a quarter of native Californians my age. So I tried to cash in on government largess by applying for tribal scholarships to go to college.

It was to no avail. Only those who can trace their lineage to a 1941 Bureau of Indian Affairs census and are one eighth Native American can qualify. When whites married Indians 150 years ago, the common practice was to baptize them and give western names, making their origins untraceable. They were also pretty casual with marriage records in the Wild West. Jumping over a broom didn?t exactly make it into the courthouse records. But we still have many of the wedding photos and know who they are.

I never did find out if that little boy got his Red Indian suit for Christmas, but I hope he did.

 

So, Should I Double Down?

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/indians-095a.jpg 390 312 DougD https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png DougD2012-04-25 23:03:062012-04-25 23:03:06A Snapshot of America?s Native Indian Economy
DougD

Business is Booming at Ruff Times

Diary

Following Howard Ruff for the last 35 years has always been eye opening, if not entertaining. The irascible Mormon is the publisher of Ruff Times (http://www.rufftimes.com? ), one of the oldest investment letters in the business, and one of the original worshipers of hard assets.

The great thing about the end of the world crowd is that all of their trades are going gangbusters now and we?re all still here. Talk about a win-win! He says that any investment denominated in dollars is a mistake, which is in a long term down trend, along with all paper assets. Silver (SLV) is his first choice, which will outperform gold, and eventually top $100 from the current $27. His personal target for the barbarous relic (GLD) is $2,300, but that might prove conservative.

With the Chinese building 100 nuclear power plants over the next ten years, uranium (CCJ) has great potential. Equities may never come back from their lost decade. Don?t buy ETF?s because they are just another form of paper, and may not actually own the gold or silver they claim. The government is laying the foundation for a massive inflation which will begin soon.

Howard has long been considered card carrying member of the lunatic fringe of the investment world, sticking with hard assets throughout their 20 year bear market during the eighties and nineties, and annually predicting the demise of the federal government. Maybe it?s a case of a broken clock being right twice a day, but in recent years I find myself agreeing with Howard more and more. Whether that means I?m now a lunatic too, only time will tell.

 

 

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/3.jpg 271 459 DougD https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png DougD2012-04-25 23:02:062012-04-25 23:02:06Business is Booming at Ruff Times
DougD

April 26, 2012 - Quote of the Day

Quote of the Day

?The old yardsticks don?t seem to be working anymore,? said Art Cashin, a strategist at UBS.

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/1.jpg 400 400 DougD https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png DougD2012-04-25 23:01:512012-04-25 23:01:51April 26, 2012 - Quote of the Day
DougD

Why Dr. Copper is Looking Ill

Newsletter

Traders like to refer to the red metal as Dr. Copper because it is the only one that has a PhD in economics. This year it has been proving its credentials as a great predictor of future economic activity once again.

Copper has been leading the downside charge for all risk assets since it peaked on February 10. After looking at the latest trade data for the red metal, it is clear that it has a lot more bleeding to do. This does not bode well for risk assets anywhere.

The harsh truth is that copper stockpiles in China, which accounts for 40% of global consumption, are the highest in history. Estimates for the size of current stockpiles in country run as high as 3 million tonnes, with a stunning 918,000 tonnes coming in during the last six months. Consumption totaled only 1 million tonnes in Q1, 2012, and could fall to as low as 1.7 million tonnes over the remaining three quarters. The mismatch is huge, and makes the current price of $3.64 a pound look pretty expensive.

This imbalance is occurring in the face of a slowing Chinese economy. Only yesterday, the Chinese purchasing managers index for April came in at 49.1, well below the boom/bust level. Residential real estate, the largest consumer of copper in the Middle Kingdom, has clearly been in a bear market since last year.

The grim outlook is expected to make a serious dent into the profits of major producers, BHP Billiton (BHP), Freeport McMoRan (FCX), Rio Tinto (RIO), and Anglo American (AAUKY.PK), and Xstrata (XTA.L).

If the risk off scenario continues through the summer, then a $3.25 downside target is a chip shot. Remember that the 2009 low was positively subterranean $1.25 a pound. Bring in a real summer slowdown, and lower prices are within reach. Professionals will be selling the futures on any decent rally. Individuals can sell (CU) on market, are buy near money puts.

 

 

 

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 DougD https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png DougD2012-04-24 23:04:442012-04-24 23:04:44Why Dr. Copper is Looking Ill
DougD

Vietnam Has Been Hot

Diary

Vietnam has delivered one of the top performing stock markets so far in 2012. Take a look at the Market Vectors Vietnam ETF (VNM). The venture invests in companies that get 50% or more of their earnings from that country, with an anticipated 37% exposure in finance, and 19% in energy. This will get you easily tradable exposure in the country where China does its offshoring.

Vietnam was also one of the top performing stock markets in 2009. It was a real basket case in 2008, when zero growth and a 25% inflation rate took the main stock market index down 78%, from 1,160 to 250. This is definitely your E-ticket ride.

Vietnam is a classic emerging market play with a turbocharger. It offers lower labor costs than China, a growing middle class, and has been the target of large scale foreign direct investment. General Electric (GE) recently built a wind turbine factory there. You always want to follow the big, smart money. Its new membership in the World Trade Organization is definitely going to be a help. As my old friend, Carl Van Horn, the head of investment at JP Morgan taught me, watch direct investment, because the stock markets always follow.

It also helps a lot that the country has one of the world?s more favorable demographic pyramids. That means it has a high percentage of young, free spending workers and relatively few older social service demanding retirees. That is partially because we killed so many off during 1960-1972.
I still set off metal detectors and my scars itch at night when the weather is turning, thanks to my last encounter with the Vietnamese, so it is with some trepidation that I revisit this enigmatic country. Throw this one into the hopper of ten year long plays you only buy on big dips, and go there on a long vacation. If we get a summer swoon in global risk assets as I expect, this would be a good name to pick up.

The green shoots are real. But watch out for the old land mines.

 

 

 


Pass Me a ?BUY? Ticket Please

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/viet.jpg 240 320 DougD https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png DougD2012-04-24 23:03:542012-04-24 23:03:54Vietnam Has Been Hot
DougD

Case Shiller Says the Bottom is Not In for Real Estate

Diary

As much as my real estate broker insists that the bottom is in for residential real estate, the raw and unvarnished data still does not support that belief. This morning, the February S&P 500 Case Shiller real estate index put in new lows for nine major markets, as well as for both composite indexes. Overall, prices are down 3.5% YOY. That takes us back to Q3, 2002 levels. It is now officially a lost decade for housing.

The foreclosure disaster in Atlanta continues unabated, with prices there down 2.5% MOM. It was followed by Chicago, -2.5%, and Cleveland, 1.7%. Believe it or not, prices in Detroit are still falling, down 1.3% MOM, and are below 1992 levels. Obtaining bank financing is still a major hurdle for many buyers. Unless you have a FICO score of over 700, the world doesn?t want to know you.

We received additional data today indicating that all is not well in River City. March new home sales absolutely collapsed by -7.1% in March, compared to a gain of +7.3% in February. It is obvious that good winter weather pulled forward demand at the expense of the current quarter. This has ominous implications for the broader economy. Did other industries see this as well?

I have been mercilessly beating up on the residential sector for seven years now. Telling people that their homes, their principal asset, still had farther to fall got me disinvited from the last dinner party years ago. The best case you can make is that we are bumping along a bottom, supported by the lowest interest rates and highest affordably in 50 years. But we are going to be here a long time. As long as the demographic headwinds remain at gale force strength, rent, don?t buy.

By the way, I had a fascinating dinner with Robert Shiller, the Yale economics professor who created this index from whole cloth. When I get some time, I?ll write it up.

 

 

Still Facing Gale Force Winds in the Real estate Market

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/WeatherBNPS_450x300.jpg 267 400 DougD https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png DougD2012-04-24 23:02:562012-04-24 23:02:56Case Shiller Says the Bottom is Not In for Real Estate
DougD

April 25, 2012 - Quote of the Day

Quote of the Day

?With slowing growth in the US and no growth in Europe, you are going to have to shave a few percentage points off of growth in China. If you look at the chessboard as a retail investor, we have a year or more in a sideways to down stock market,? said Dr. Peter Navarro, a professor at the University of California at Irvine School of business.

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/chess.jpg 300 400 DougD https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png DougD2012-04-24 23:01:382012-04-24 23:01:38April 25, 2012 - Quote of the Day
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Trade Alert - (FXY) April 24, 2012

Trade Alert

As a potentially profitable opportunity presents itself, John will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what should be bought, when to buy it, and at what price. Read more

0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2012-04-24 15:37:112012-04-24 15:37:11Trade Alert - (FXY) April 24, 2012
DougD

The Next Two Weekly Jobless Figures Are Crucial

Newsletter

All eyes will be focused on the weekly jobless claims to be released by the Department of Labor at 8:30 AM EST on Thursday.

You may recall that investors did not exactly run the last two weekly reports up the flagpole and salute them, which showed sharp increases in unemployment claims. At this point the bulls are being comfortably complacent, blaming the bad numbers on? ?random noise? and short term statistical anomalies. This was the final data series to turn negative, and the last of a recent plethora of downshifting economic reports.

Get two more high or higher jobless numbers, and the four week moving average will turn up. That will be enough to set the cat among the equity holding pigeons, and turn a modest 5% correction into a much scarier one that is 15% or greater. All of a sudden it is d?j? vu all over again, with 2012 turning into a carbon copy of 2011, 2010, and 2009, and a big summer sell off in the cards.

I have been warning about the likelihood of such a development all year. After every company in the US hired one person, they again slammed on the brakes and quit returning e-mails. Corporate management these days are playing defense, and don?t see any increase in consumer spending as sustainable. Why add overhead in front of the next slowdown? There are also not a lot of companies that want to expand the workforce going into the summer, which normally sees a seasonal slowdown.

This sudden downgrade of one of the most important data streams is occurring just as a whole flock of black swans are getting clearance for landing. The French elections are signaling that we have at least two more weeks of ?RISK OFF? on the table until the run off on May 6, and possibly much more. Last night, the HSBC Chinese purchasing managers index came in at 49.1 for April, below the crucial boom/bust level of 50 for a sixth month. That means a Chinese hard landing is still on the table, although I think that it is unlikely.

The timing of all this couldn?t be worse, or better, if you happen to be short, as I am. The charts for virtually every risk asset, from Apple (AAPL), to the (SPX), (IWM), (USO), (CU), (FXY), (FXE), (GLD), and (SLV), are either showing textbook head and shoulder tops, or are already in clear down trends. I include an ample sampling below.

Anyone who believes that the ?RISK ON/RISK OFF? model is dead works in a profession where they can be consistently wrong and still stay in business, like in journalism. Give it two more weeks, and expect the media to start wringing hands about ?double dip? or ?triple dip? recession. Last year risk assets peaked on April 29. This year, April 29 came early, on April 2.

 

 

 

 

The Black Swans Have Been Cleared for Landing

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/BlackSwan-Copy2-1.jpg 399 400 DougD https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png DougD2012-04-23 23:04:092012-04-23 23:04:09The Next Two Weekly Jobless Figures Are Crucial
DougD

Your Wealth and the French Election Results

Diary

It would be easy to ignore what is happening on the other side of the world, especially when they involve the French. But to do so today in this interconnected and interdependent world would be extremely hazardous to your wealth. When a butterfly flaps its wings in Brazil, the tsunami hits Japan.

That is exactly the extreme sort of weather event we are witnessing today with the French presidential election results. This is how they came out:

Socialist Fran?ois Hollande? 28%
Conservative Nicolas Sarkozy? 26%
Right wing Marine Le Pen 18%
Communist Jean-Luc M?lenchon 11%
Other parties and uncommitted? 17%

To say this is a disaster for Sarkozy is an understatement of the highest order. It is the first time in more than 50 years that a sitting president lost in the first round. The odds of the socialists winning again in two weeks have moved from 50:50 to more like 80:20. For Sarkozy to pull things out of the fire from here would require nothing less than a miracle.

The socialist economic policies will require an increase in government spending, growing budget deficits, an extended retirement age, and a far heavier reliance on sovereign borrowing by France. It makes a complete hash of the careful progress made by German chancellor, Angela Merkel, made towards steering Europe to live within its means. More debt issuance means higher interest rates, falling stock markets, and a continuation of the European crisis. Message: bombs away for risk assets.

The only way that Sarkozy could keep his job is to do some sort of a deal with the right wing National Front to create a coalition government. And what would be their price for such an arrangement? The immediate withdrawal of France from the Euro to recover national pride and sovereignty. Message: more bombs away for risk assets.

Needless to say, this is all hugely positive for the dollar (UUP), the yen (FXY), and US Treasury bonds (TLT), and very negative for US stocks (IWM), the Euro (FXE), oil (USO), copper (CU), gold (GLD), and silver (SLV). That house you think you recently bought at the bottom just fell in value by 5%. If you have been reading this letter in recent weeks, you already have all of the right positions and are sitting pretty. If you don?t, you better start reading.

As a long time analyst of the American political scene, I have to laugh at the results broken out by prefecture on the map below. The conservatives dominate the cities, while the socialists control the countryside, which is the complete opposite found in US election outcomes. Similarly, college grads vote conservative while the uneducated vote liberal, which again is the polar opposite of American results. No wonder I have such a hard time digesting frog legs.

 

 

 

The Next Prime Minister of France?

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/Socialist-party-president-008.jpg 240 400 DougD https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png DougD2012-04-23 23:03:392012-04-23 23:03:39Your Wealth and the French Election Results
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