I just wanted to drop you a line and thank you for everything you do for our amazing industry.
I have been working in the business for about 2 years now, I am a partner in a start-up fund, trading forex, and I have learned so much from your website and the little snippets of info that you give.
You have helped me to learn my way through this complicated business and have made learning fun.
Anyway, thank you for sharing your amazing info and I look forward to reading more from you in the future.
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/Testimonial.jpg201241Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2013-03-15 08:57:242013-03-15 08:57:24Testimonial
?I figured it was just as easy to hear ?no? from someone who?s wealthy as from someone who is not wealthy,? said Steve Lockshin of Convergent Wealth, the largest independent financial advisor in California, with $10.5 billion in assets.
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/Simon-Cowell.jpg270279Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2013-03-15 08:54:542013-03-15 08:54:54March 15, 2013 - Quote of the Day
As a potentially profitable opportunity presents itself, John will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what should be bought, when to buy it, and at what price. Read more
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/Baseball.jpg260363Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2013-03-14 13:01:512013-03-14 13:01:51Followup to Trade Alert - (SPY) March 4, 2013
As a potentially profitable opportunity presents itself, John will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what should be bought, when to buy it, and at what price. This is your chance to ?look over? John Thomas? shoulder as he gives you unparalleled insight on major world financial trends BEFORE they happen.Read more
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Come join me for lunch at the Mad Hedge Fund Trader?s Global Strategy Luncheons, which I will be conducting throughout the US and Europe over the next five months. An excellent meal will be followed by a wide-ranging discussion and an extended question and answer period.
I?ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, currencies, commodities, precious metals, and real estate. And to keep you in suspense, I?ll be throwing a few surprises out there too. Tickets will vary according to each city, depending on local costs, but will be around $200 per person.
I?ll be arriving at 11:00 and leaving late in case anyone wants to have a one on one discussion, or just sit around and chew the fat about the financial markets. You never know who is going t show up for these events, and I always manage to learn something new. I find the discussions and debate with my guests incredibly productive.
I look forward to meeting you, and thank you for supporting my research. You find the current schedule below. To purchase tickets for the luncheons, please go to my online store.
April 12 San Francisco
April 19 Chicago
July 2 New York
July 8 London, England
July 12 Amsterdam, Neth.
July 16 Berlin, Germany
July 18 Frankfurt, Germany
July 25 Portofino, Italy
August 1 Mykonos, Greece
August 9 Zermatt, Switzerland
I remember 1997 like it was yesterday. Bill Clinton was president, the US government was running a balanced budget, and the Dotcom IPO bubble parties in Silicon Valley were happening almost every day.
The Florida Marlins beat the Cleveland Indians in a seven game World Series, where the last game went to a heart stopping 11 innings. Elton John scored the top hit of the year with ?A Candle in the Wind.?
1997 was also the last time that the Dow average closed up for nine consecutive days. Sure, the market only managed to eke out a 5.22 point gain. But hey, up is up.
The market was on its way to losing its winning streak until hedge fund legend, my old buddy David Tepper, spoke to the press. He mentioned that the Dow could end up 20% in 2013. That means we still have another 9.5% to go, potentially taking the Dow as high as 16,000. Warning: David has a long history of being right, with his own long-term average annualized return nearly matching my own at 38%.
One could easily imagine a course of events that gets us there. The Republicans and Democrats kiss and make up and produce a budget acceptable to both sides that cuts our deficit over the long haul. The sequester ends. China stops double dipping. Europe gets its act together, with ECB president, Mario Draghi, finally cutting euro interest rates. Oil prices collapse.
There is another big factor that could keep driving share prices higher. Ben Bernanke could keep the pedal to the metal and maintain the present rate of monetary easing. March is turning into one of the most fascinating months in the history of the bond markets. For the first time ever, The Fed is buying more bonds that the Treasury is issuing, with the excess demand getting soaked up in the marketplace.
Without a doubt, the most underestimated, misunderstood development of the year was when the esteemed Fed chairman told us that they may never sell their $3 billion plus stash of Treasury bond holdings, but hold them until maturity instead.
This is huge. It means that the Armageddon predicted by everyone when the Fed unwound its massive bond position is never going to happen. Instead, we will see a slow grind higher in yields and lower in prices. I have been expecting this all along, warning readers in my own forecasts that we may never get the bond market crash they had been hoping for, and that they should avoid high cost of carry short bond plays, like the (TBT).
As a mathematician, I have to assume that Chaos Theory is going to kick in here pretty soon and force the indexes to revert back to the mean. This is another way of saying the longer the market moves in a single direction, the greater the probability that it will reverse.
Not to do so will really tempt fate. That is why I picked up a modest short position in stocks today, selling some short dated, deep out-of-the-money, calls on the S&P 500 (SPY). I am also deliberately dragging my feet in adding any new longs to the Trade Alert Service model-trading portfolio.
Even if Tepper is right and we blow through the top end of the most wildly bullish forecasts for 2013, we need to have a pullback first. Yes, it has been a long wait. But nothing goes up forever, trees don?t grow to the sky, yada, yada, yada.
When the hiatus begins, there should be room to make some money through the type of short position which I tacked on today. David did not say he expects the market to rise to 16,000 by the end of this quarter, which is already on track to deliver the best stock market performance in history.
If the Dow closes up again for a 10th day in a row, it will be the longest string of wins since 1996. What was the number one hit that year? The ?Macarena?? Can you hum a few bars for me?
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/Elton-John.jpg281212Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2013-03-14 09:24:462013-03-14 09:24:46The Elton John Market
I rely on hundreds of 'moles' around the world whose job it is to watch a single, but important indicator for the world economy. One of them checks for me the want ads in the manufacturing mega city of Shenzhen, China, and what he told me last week was alarming.
Wage demands by Chinese workers have been skyrocketing this year. The biggest increases have been at the low end of the spectrum, where migrant workers from the provinces are earning up to 40% more than a year ago. Wage settlements of 20% or more for trained workers are common. One factory that gave staff only a 10% increase saw many of them fail to return after the recent Chinese lunar New Year.
Of course China's blistering 8% GDP growth is to cause, which has pushed inflation well beyond the government's 4% target. So the cost of living in the Middle Kingdom is rising dramatically. The problem has been particularly severe with imported commodities, such as in food. Hence, the increased demands.
This is important for the rest of us because low wages have been the cornerstone of the Chinese economic miracle. In just the last decade, average monthly Chinese wages have climbed from the bottom rung to the middle tier. That seriously erodes the country's cost advantage, which has gained such enormous shares in foreign markets, like the US. Take away the country's price advantages, and demand will wither, slowing growth globally.
What will they be demanding next? Collective bargaining rights? In the meantime, keep checking those Craig's List entries for Shanghai.
Average Monthly Salary
$3,099 Yokohama, Japan
$1,220 Seoul, South Korea
$888 Taipei, Taiwan
$235 Shenzhen, China
$148 Jakarta, Indonesia
$100 Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
$47 Dhaka, Bangla Desh
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/Chinese-Men.jpg326221Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2013-03-14 09:20:312013-03-14 09:20:31Rampant Wage Inflation Strikes China
As a potentially profitable opportunity presents itself, John will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what should be bought, when to buy it, and at what price. This is your chance to ?look over? John Thomas? shoulder as he gives you unparalleled insight on major world financial trends BEFORE they happen.Read more
Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2013-03-13 12:23:572013-03-13 12:23:57Trade Alert - (SPY) March 13, 2013
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