Come join me for lunch for the Mad Hedge Fund Trader?s Global Strategy Update, which I will be conducting in London on Monday, July 8, 2013. A three course lunch will be followed by a PowerPoint presentation and an extended question and answer period.
I?ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, currencies commodities, precious metals, and real estate. And to keep you in suspense, I?ll be throwing a few surprises out there too. Enough charts, tables, graphs, and statistics will be thrown at you to keep your ears ringing for a week. Tickets are available for $249.
I?ll be arriving an hour early and leaving late in case anyone wants to have a one on one discussion, or just sit around and chew the fat about the financial markets.
The lunch will be held at a private club on St. James Street, the details of which will be emailed to you with your purchase confirmation.
I look forward to meeting you, and thank you for supporting my research.
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As a potentially profitable opportunity presents itself, John will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what should be bought, when to buy it, and at what price. Read more
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As a potentially profitable opportunity presents itself, John will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what should be bought, when to buy it, and at what price. This is your chance to ?look over? John Thomas? shoulder as he gives you unparalleled insight on major world financial trends BEFORE they happen.Read more
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Featured Trade: (APRIL 12 SAN FRANCISCO STRATEGY LUNCHEON), (THE US DOMINANCE IN HIGHER EDUCATION), (AN EVENING WITH JAMES BAKER III), (THE CORN CRASH CONTINUES), (CORN), (WEAT), (SOYB), (DBA)
Come join me for lunch at the Mad Hedge Fund Trader?s Global Strategy Update, which I will be conducting in San Francisco on Friday, April 12, 2013. An excellent meal will be followed by a wide-ranging discussion and an extended question and answer period.
I?ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, currencies, commodities, precious metals, and real estate. And to keep you in suspense, I?ll be throwing a few surprises out there too. Tickets are available for $189.
I?ll be arriving at 11:00 and leaving late in case anyone wants to have a one on one discussion, or just sit around and chew the fat about the financial markets.
The lunch will be held at a private club in downtown San Francisco near Union Square that will be emailed with your purchase confirmation.
I look forward to meeting you, and thank you for supporting my research. To purchase tickets for the luncheons, please go to my online store.
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/02/San-Francisco-e1410363065903.jpg238359Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2013-04-02 09:29:122013-04-02 09:29:12April 12 San Francisco Strategy Luncheon
I spent the weekend attending a graduation in Washington State, a stone?s throw from where the 2010 Winter Olympics were held. While sitting through the tedious reading of 550 names, and listening to the wailing bagpipes, I did several calculations on the back of the commencement program.
I came to some startling conclusions. Higher education has grown into a gigantic industry, with a massively positive impact on America?s balance of payments, generating an impact on the world far beyond the dollar amounts involved. There are 671,616 foreign students in the US (90,000 from China alone) paying an average out-of-state tuition of $25,000 each, creating a staggering $16.8 billion of payments a year.
On a pro rata basis, that amounts to a serious part of our total surplus in services in 2011 of $188 billion, not far behind financial services (click here for the Bureau of Economic Analysis site). A fortunate few, backed by endowed chairs and buildings built by wealthy and eager parents, land places at prestigious Universities like Harvard, Princeton, Yale, and the University of California at Berkeley. The overwhelming majority, however, enroll in the provinces in a thousand rural state universities and junior colleges that most of us have never heard of.
The windfall has enabled once sleepy little schools to build themselves into world class institutions of higher learning with 30,000 or more students, boasting state of the art facilities, much to the joy of local residents and state education officials. Furthermore, this dominance of education industry is steadily Americanizing the global establishment.
I can?t tell you how many times over the decades I have run into the Persian Gulf sovereign fund manager who went to Florida State, the Asian CEO who attended Cal State Hayward, or the African finance minister who fondly recalled rooting for the Kansas State Wildcats.
Those who constantly bemoan the impending fall of the Great American Empire can take heart by merely looking inland at these impressive degree factories. It also might give them an explanation of why the dollar is so strong in the face of absolute gigantic and perennial trade deficits.
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/Graduation-e1439932336926.jpg303400Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2013-04-02 09:27:262013-04-02 09:27:26The Huge US Dominance in Higher Education
?We have 3,500 nuclear weapons left over from the cold war we don?t need, they take 20 seconds to re-aim, we?re not afraid to use them. And by the way, they?re already aimed at you.? That is the approach James Baker III thinks America should take with Iran, Ronald Reagan?s Chief of Staff and Secretary of the Treasury and George H.W. Bush?s Secretary of State.
At the same time we should be talking to the regime in Tehran, while doing everything we can to support the reformers, tighten sanctions, and enlist Europe?s help. Baker does not see a military solution in Iran, even though their potential to create instability in the region is enormous. This was one of dozens of amazing insights I gained chatting with the wily Texas lawyer during an evening in San Francisco.
Baker is happy to take on the ?America Bashers?, pointing out that the US still plays a dominant role in the UN, NATO, the IMF, and the World Bank. It accounts for 25% of global GDP, and its military is unmatched. The US spread globalization, and the spectacular growth of China and India is largely the result of open American trade policies, raising standards of living globally.
But the US can?t take its leadership role for granted. The biggest threats to American dominance are the runaway borrowing and entitlements. US debt to GDP will soar to over 100% in the near future, the highest level since WWII. This is unsustainable, is certain to bring a return of inflation, and unless dealt with, will lead to a long term American decline on the world stage.
Massive trade and capital flow imbalances also have to be addressed. The 82-year-old ex-Marine, who confesses to being the only Treasury Secretary in history who never took an economics class, believes that the advantageous rates that the government now borrows at are not set in stone.
Baker is the man who engineered an end to the cold war with a whimper, and not a bang. He thinks that ?even our power has its limits,? and that there is a risk of strategic overreach.? With the US politically evenly divided, Congress has degenerated from debating teams into execution squads, and consensus is impossible. The media are partly to blame, especially bloggers who propagate wild conspiracy theories, as confrontation sells better than accommodation.
Regarding the financial crisis, we need to end ?too big to fail? and embark on re-regulation, not strangulation. All in all, it was a fascinating few hours spent with a piece of living history who still maintains his excellent contacts in the diplomatic and intelligence communities.
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/James-Baker.jpg335256Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2013-04-02 09:23:472013-04-02 09:23:47An Evening With James Baker III
Pit traders of the ags are bruised, battered, and broken, in the wake of Thursday?s US Department of Agriculture crop report showing that there is a whole lot more food out there than anyone imagined possible.
Corn was the real shocker. It has long been a nostrum in the ag markets that high prices cure high prices, and that is exactly what is happening now. In the wake of last summer?s spectacular drought induced shortages, which saw corn prices nearly double, farmers rushed to expanding plantings in 2013. The government expects that some 97.3 million acres will be sown this year, the most since the Dust Bowl days of 1936.
The government agency boosted estimates of stockpiles nearly 10%, from 5 to 5.4 billion bushels. Demand from ethanol makers has collapsed as they have priced themselves out of the market, leading to the closure of nearly 10% of the country?s fermenting facilities. Purchases by ranchers as feedstuff for cattle have been weak. These are enormous upward revisions. Prices took a 10%, limit move down on Friday, and are taking another dive today.
Even though the numbers were not as dramatic for the other grains, their prices suffered as well. Some of the new corn is being grown at the expense of soybeans, which saw a small decline in plantings. But prices took a dump anyway. Wheat (WEAT) has amazingly dropped below the summer, 2012 lows. The ag ETF (DBA), which includes the machinery and fertilizer companies, has performed the worst of all, and is threatening a new three year low. Virtually the entire 2012 ag bubble has been given back.
The long term bull case for food could not be more compelling (click here for ?Is Food the New Distressed Asset??). The world is producing people faster than the food to feed them. The global population is expected to rise from 7 to 9 billion by 2050. Half of that increase will happen in countries that are unable to feed themselves, like the Middle East.
Food consumption in the US isn?t dropping anytime soon. According to Yahoo data, ?Plus sized swimsuits? searches were up 530% in March.
There is also a huge emerging market play here. Rising standards of living mean better diets. Better food requires more calories and water to grow. To raise one pound of beef, you need 2,200 gallons of fresh water. It is true that if everyone in China eats one extra egg a day, the entire continent of Africa has to starve.
I have been ignoring the ags since last summer, when, if you didn?t get in during the first week, you missed the entire drought play. Since then I dipped in on the short side in corn, playing the slow unwinding of the price bubble.
With this collapse, the long side is now, at last, back on the table. Let the current selloff shake itself out. Then, take a look at some long plays in case the global warming trade returns this summer. Nine of the ten past years have been the hottest in history. Why should this year be any different? If Texas governor, Rick Perry, says something isn?t happening with the environment, you can pretty much count that it is.
If you have any doubts, take a look at the latest drought monitor map below, which shows long-term arid conditions persisting in most of the Midwest.
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?When a manager with a reputation for brilliance takes a business with poor fundamental economics, it is the reputation of the business that remains intact,? said oracle of Omaha, Warrant Buffett.
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/Man-Tired-with-Dollar-Signs.jpg169186Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2013-04-02 09:17:212013-04-02 09:17:21April 2, 2013 - Quote of the Day
Come join me for lunch at the Mad Hedge Fund Trader?sGlobal Strategy Update, which I will be conducting in Las Vegas, Nevada on Wednesday, May 8, 2013. An excellent meal will be followed by a wide-ranging discussion and an extended question and answer period.
I?ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, currencies, commodities, precious metals, and real estate. I will also explain how I have been able to deliver a blowout 40% return since the November, 2012 market bottom. And to keep you in suspense, I?ll be throwing a few surprises out there too. Tickets are available for $179.
I?ll be arriving at 11:00 and leaving late in case anyone wants to have a one on one discussion, or just sit around and chew the fat about the financial markets. The PowerPoint presentation will be emailed to you three days before the event.
The lunch will be held at a major Las Vegas hotel on the Strip, the details will be emailed with your purchase confirmation. Please make your own hotel reservations, as business there is booming.
I look forward to meeting you, and thank you for supporting my research. To purchase tickets for the luncheons, please go to my online store.
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