I have just finished reading the best financial book ever, and I have read most of them. It is The Ascent of Money: A Financial History of the World by Harvard professor Niall Ferguson. It gives you a great explanation of how the broad sweep of history delivered us to the doorstep of today?s crisis.
Ferguson starts with an ancient accounting system written on clay tablets in Mesopotamia 5,000 years ago, and then takes us through the economic dominance of Greece and Rome. We learn about a medieval Italian diplomat named Fibonacci, who imported advanced mathematical concepts from the Middle East, which we still trade around today. He plots the rise of the great banking dynasties, such as the Medici?s and the Rothschild?s (Jacob was my neighbor in London).
It is also a pot boiling narrative of the great financial scandals, starting with the Mississippi bubble, which wrecked the government of France, the South Sea bubble, where Sir Isaac Newton lost his shirt, to the Ponzi schemes of the 20th century. The story tells us how the financial center of the world has migrated from Babylon to Cairo, Rome, Venice, Amsterdam, London, and eventually ending up in a hedge fund dominated New York.
Ferguson is particularly astute in explaining in layman?s terms the borrowing binge and the exotic, super leveraged derivatives that lead to the current crash. The author finishes with an explanation of how American overconsumption is financed by Chinese saving, and why this can?t last. If you are looking for a single tome which ties it all together, this is it. To obtain preferential pricing in the purchase of this book, please click here.
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I took a day off to attend the New York Times Global Forum at San Francisco?s Sony Metreon Center. Their goal was to put together 400 of the most forward thinking and influential minds in the Bay Area, stand back, and see what happened.
It was organized by my old friend, fellow traveler, and veteran journalist, Tom Friedman. Tom and I date back to the old days in Beirut, during their vicious civil war in the early eighties, when working as a journalist meant not knowing if you would wake up the next morning.
Tom worked for the old United Press International, and I for the still prospering Economist. Our mutual friend, the Associated Press?s Terry Anderson, was kidnapped out of his apartment and held hostage by Shiite Hezbollah militants for five years, an ordeal he described in chilling detail in his book, Den of Lions.
You know Tom as the controversial and kibitzing resident of the Times Op-Ed page. He popularized the concepts of globalization and a flat world in a series of groundbreaking, best selling books, including The Lexus and the Olive Tree, Hot, Flat, and Crowded, and That Used To Be Us.
I managed to speak to dozens of guests and gained a fascinating read from many different viewpoints of our long-term future. I shall try to distill what I learned in a few lines without any particular attribution. I am always shopping for a new framework with which to view our rapidly evolving planet, and I was not disappointed.
The merger of globalization and information technology has been the most important development this century. The new hyper connectivity is changing the world at a breakneck speed that few understand.
In the days of old, you needed an entire country to impact the global economy. Then, only a corporation was required, starting with the Dutch East India Company. Now, all it takes is a laptop computer or smart phone with a broadband connection.
Several disparate trends came together during the nineties to enable this revolution. The PC made possible the authoring of content in digital form. The Internet distributed it globally for free. Work flow software allowed the residents of this a potential Tower of Babel to seamlessly talk to other. Google gave us unlimited free search, permitting us to all find each other.
A dozen years ago, 4G was a parking space, Skype was a typo, the cloud was in the sky, Twitter was a sound, Facebook didn?t exist, and big data was a rap group. Today, the collapse of storage costs has ushered in big data and super empowered innovators. High speed Internet is even available at the summit of Mount Everest. If the entire world were a math class, the grading curve has just risen for everyone. ?Average? is officially dead.
When Tom?s predecessor, James Reston, went to the office 30 years ago, he wondered what his seven competitors at the major national newspapers would write that day. Now Tom wonders what his 70 million competitors will write. He is writing for the readers in Chengdu as much as he is writing for the ones in Chicago.
Employment prospects for kids these days are particularly challenging. They have to be innovation ready and not job ready. In fact, the whole concept of a ?job? is rapidly dying out. People have to think like newly landed immigrants: unconnected, hungry, and paranoid, but still optimists.
We need to always be in ?beta? mode, endlessly improving your value added to the global economy. The moment you think you?re finished, you are really finished. A lot of people will tell you how to invest your 401k, but no one will tell you how to invest in yourself. The Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader is one of the few resources that does this, teaching readers how to prosper in the financial markets independent of the establishment.
The US will not cut or spend its way out of the current economic malaise. It will invent its way out. An accelerating rate of innovation will eventually soak up our current excess workers. America is now the place where everyone around the world comes to launch their moonshot. That is great for business, and explains the tidal wave of new capital pouring into this country. In the meantime, we need to bolster our safety nets, like Medicare and Social Security, as they will be in much greater demand in this independent world.
I will write more about the conference in coming days, with carve outs on specific topics. The outlook for technology is truly unbelievable.
Two Old Warhorses
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As a potentially profitable opportunity presents itself, John will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what should be bought, when to buy it, and at what price. Read more
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As a potentially profitable opportunity presents itself, John will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what should be bought, when to buy it, and at what price. This is your chance to ?look over? John Thomas? shoulder as he gives you unparalleled insight on major world financial trends BEFORE they happen.Read more
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As a potentially profitable opportunity presents itself, John will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what should be bought, when to buy it, and at what price. Read more
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As a potentially profitable opportunity presents itself, John will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what should be bought, when to buy it, and at what price. This is your chance to ?look over? John Thomas? shoulder as he gives you unparalleled insight on major world financial trends BEFORE they happen.Read more
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Featured Trade: (UPDATED 2013 STRATEGY LUNCHEON SCHEDULE), (THE PROBLEM WITH GM), (GM) (WHY I LOVE/HATE THE OIL COMPANIES), (XOM), (USO), (THE WORST TRADE IN HISTORY), (AAPL)
General Motors Company (GM)
Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM)
United States Oil (USO)
Apple Inc. (AAPL)
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Come join me for lunch for the Mad Hedge Fund Trader?s Global Strategy Updates, which I will be conducting throughout Europe during the summer of 2013. A three-course lunch will be followed by a PowerPoint presentation and an extended question and answer period.
I?ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, currencies commodities, precious metals, and real estate. And to keep you in suspense, I?ll be throwing a few surprises out there too. Enough charts, tables, graphs, and statistics will be thrown at you to keep your ears ringing for a week.
I look forward to meeting you, and thank you for supporting my research. To purchase tickets for the luncheons, please go to my online store at http://madhedgefundradio.com/ and click on ?LUNCHEONS?.
New York City -July 2
London, England -July 8
Amsterdam, Netherlands -July 12
Berlin, Germany -July 16
Frankfurt, Germany -July 19
Portofino, Italy -July 25
Mykonos, Greece - August 1
Zermatt, Switzerland - August 9
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Like a heroin addict who just can?t wean himself off of the good stuff, General Motors is going back into subprime lending to finance new auto sales. Although the much-diminished company has made great strides at reforming its errant ways, they still do not understand their fundamental problem.
My dad was a lifetime GM customer, religiously buying a new Oldsmobile every five years. Once he even flew to Detroit for a factory tour and drove his new prize all the way home to California.
Thirty years ago, I told him he was doing GM no favors buying their cars, and the only way to force them to improve a tragically deteriorating product was to buy better-made German and Japanese vehicles. This was right after the State of California forced automakers to install seatbelts on new cars. Airbags and ABS brake systems were still years away. His response, ?I didn?t fight the Japanese for four years so I could buy their cars? (He was a Marine at Guadalcanal).
GM?s problem is that my Dad passed away 11 years ago. Of the original 17 million WWII veterans, 1,500 a day are dying, and there are less than million left. The majority of those don?t drive anymore.
All of them loved Detroit because it built great Jeeps, Sherman tanks, and halftracks that brought them home from harm?s way. Their kids prefer German, Japanese, Italian, Korean, and soon, Chinese and Indian vehicles. It is no coincidence that GM?s problems really accelerated with the passing of the ?Greatest Generation.?
During the last 35 years, when Japan?s share of the US car market climbed from 1% to 40%, I begged GM to mend their ways and build a quality, price competitive product that Americans wanted to buy. They answer was always the same: ?Nobody can tell GM how to build cars.? A more inbred culture you could not imagine. Whenever you see management constantly agreeing with each other on everything, run a mile. Maybe someone should have told them.
Today, the company?s only real hope is that young, upwardly mobile Chinese continue to buy their low end cars in large numbers. Over the last decade, GM has boosted the number of dealerships in the capital city from seven to 27, while closing hundreds of rural dealerships in the US. The problem is that the next time you need a tune up for you Caddy, you may have to drive to Beijing to get it, and the owners manual will be in Mandarin.
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/07/car.jpg277190Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2013-06-21 01:05:352013-06-21 01:05:35The Problem With GM
The first thing I do when I get up every morning is to curse the oil companies as the blood sucking scourges of modern civilization. I then fall down on my knees and thank God that we have oil companies.
This is why petroleum engineers are getting $100,000 straight out of college, while English and political science major are going straight on to food stamps.
I recommend (XOM) and other oil majors as part of any long-term portfolio. In my lifetime, the price of oil has gone up from $3 a barrel up to $149. The reasons for the ascent keep growing, from the entry of China into the global trading system, to the rapid growth of the middle class in emerging nations. They?re just not making the stuff anymore, and we can?t wait around for more dinosaurs to get squashed.
Oil companies aren?t in the oil speculation business. As soon as a new supply comes on stream, they hedge off their risk through the futures markets or through long-term supply contracts. You can find the prices they hedge at in the back of any annual report.
When oil made its big run a few years ago, I discovered to my amazement that that (XOM) had already sold most of their supplies in the $20 range. However, oil companies do make huge killings on what is already in the pipeline.
Working in the oil patch a decade ago pioneering the ?fracking? process for natural gas, I got to know many people in the industry. I found them to be insular, God fearing people not afraid of hard work. Perhaps this is because the black gold they are pursuing can blow up and kill them at any time. They are also great with numbers, which is why the oil majors are the best-managed companies in the world.
They are also huge gamblers. I swallow hard when I see the way these guys through around billions in capital, keeping in mind past disasters, like Dome Petroleum, the Alaskan oil spill, Piper Alpha, and more recently, the ill-fated Macondo well in the Gulf of Mexico. But one failure does not slow them down an iota. The ?wildcatting? origins made this a faith-based industry from day one, when praying was the principal determinant of where wells were sunk.
Unfortunately, the oil companies are too good at their job of supplying us with a steady and reliable source of energy. They have one of the oldest and most powerful lobbies in Washington, and as a result, the tax code is riddled with favorite treatment of the oil industry. While Social Security and Medicare are on the chopping block, the industry basks in the glow of $53 billion a year in tax subsidies.
When I first got into the oil business and sat down with a Houston CPA, the tax breaks were so legion that I couldn?t understand why anyone was not in the oil racket. Every wonder why we have had three presidents from Texas over the last 50 years, and are possibly looking at a fourth (Jeb Bush)?
Three words explain it all: the oil depletion allowance, whereby investors can write off the entire cost of a new well in the first year, while the income is spread over the life of the well. This also explains why deep-water exploration in the Gulf is far less regulated than California hairdressers.
No surprise then that that the industry has emerged in the cross hairs of the debt ceiling negotiations, under the ?loopholes? category. Not only do the country?s most profitable companies pay almost nothing in taxes, they are one of the largest users of private jets.
It is an old Washington nostrum that when things start heading south on the domestic front, you beat up the oil companies. It?s the industry that everyone loves to hate. Cut off the gasoline supply to an environmentalist, and he will be the one who screams the loudest. This has generated recurring cycles of accusatory congressional investigations, windfall profits taxes, and punitive regulations, the most recent flavor we are now seeing.
But imagine what the world would look like if Exxon and its cohorts were German, Saudi, or heaven forbid, Chinese. I bet we wouldn?t have as much oil as we do today, and it wouldn?t be as cheap. Hate them if you will, but at least these are our oil companies. Try jamming a lump of coal into the gas tank of your Prius and tell me what happens.
Love Them, Hate Them or Both?
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