While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Jim Parker, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.
Global Market Comments
May 30, 2014
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(JUNE 4 GLOBAL STRATEGY WEBINAR),
(JULY 18 BARCELONA, SPAIN STRATEGY LUNCHEON)
(WHY I?M SELLING SHORT TREASURY BONDS),
(TLT), (TBT), (SPY), (VIX), (VXX)
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT)
ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (TBT)
SPDR S&P 500 (SPY)
VOLATILITY S&P 500 (^VIX)
iPath S&P 500 VIX ST Futures ETN (VXX)
This has really been one of those incredible, jaw dropping, knock your socks off kind of years. It seems like every asset class is doing exactly the opposite of what it should do.
A slowing economy delivered a huge move up in bonds, which is fine. The extent of the damage the harsh winter wrought on the economy was confirmed this morning, with a full one-point drop in Q1 GDP. But does this mean that stocks should go to all time highs as well?
Look at the volatility index, (VIX) (VXX), which is also sitting at multiyear lows. You would expect it to rise as we go into a traditional ?RISK OFF? season. It does truly seem that this time it?s different.
That is, until they are not different anymore. I believe that after five months of markets that are unpredictable, extraordinary, and difficult to trade, they are about to become predictable, ordinary, and easier to trade.
What does that mean for you and me? Buy stocks and sell bonds. We are about to shift from a reach for yield world to one where investors are reaching for capital gains. There isn?t much yield to reach for anyway.
We?ve just had a four point run in the latest leg up in the incredible bull market in bonds. So I am strapping on here the iShares Barclay 20+ Year Treasury Bond Fund (TLT) July, 2014 $118-$121 in-the-money bear put spread (see yesterday?s Trade Alert).
We could be in for some month end profit taking. The upper $118 strike works out to a ten year Treasury bond yield of 2.27%. The breakeven point in yield terms goes all the way down to 2.24%.
As long as yields stay above that by the July 18 expiration, we will keep the entire profit on this trade, a gain of some 1.76% for your total portfolio. Better yet, get a three point dip anywhere along the way, and we will immediately reap 75% of the potential profit, as we did with our last (TLT) bear put spread.
Sounds like a no brainer to me.
I think this week flushed out a lot of the hotter short-term money from the market in the humongous short squeeze that I warned you was coming. Positioning is now flatter. It is now time to digest.
Mad Day Trader Jim Parker also thinks we could be in for a major trend reversal with next week?s Friday nonfarm payroll report. Bonds rallied on the last six consecutive reports. This time they may disappoint, as bond prices are at such nosebleed levels. We could be setting up for a big ?buy the rumor, sell the news? move here in bonds.
In the meantime, the (TLT) could rise as much as a point higher to $116. That still gives me plenty of breathing room with this new position, which has a breakeven point at $118.45. That sounds like a pretty good bet, now that we are headed into the slower summer months.
For us to lose money on this trade, the world would have to end first, at which point we won?t care about our trading books.
For those who don?t have options coursing through their veins, please buy the ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury ETF (TBT), a 2X short Treasury bond fund.
As for stocks, it is looking like we are just completing a five month long ?time? correction. The ?price? correction never extended beyond 6%. We are about to enter nine months of increasingly positive economic data, as most of the growth lost in Q1 gets rolled forward to Q2, Q3, and Q4. That should take the S&P 500 (SPX) up to 2,100 by year-end.
In the meantime, the Mad Hedge Fund Trader?s Trade Alert service is now up 15.3% on the year, and is inches from a new all time high. Watch this space.
It?s Really Been One of Those Kinds of Years
?Life is either a daring adventure, or nothing,? said Helen Keller, a deaf and blind advocate for the disabled.
As a potentially profitable opportunity presents itself, John will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what should be bought, when to buy it, and at what price. This is your chance to ?look over? John Thomas? shoulder as he gives you unparalleled insight on major world financial trends BEFORE they happen.
Further Update to: Trade Alert -(TLT)
Buy the iShares Barclay 20+ Year Treasury Bond Fund (TLT) July, 2014 $118-$121 in-the-money bear put spread at $2.55 or best
Opening Trade
5-29-2013
expiration date: July 18, 2014
Portfolio weighting: 10%
Number of Contracts = 39 contracts
We?ve just had a four point run in the latest leg up in the incredible bull market in bonds. We could be in for some month end profit taking. The upper $118 strike works out to a 10 Year Treasury Bond yield of 2.27%.
As long as yields stay above that by the July 18 expiration, we will keep the entire profit on this trade. Better yet, get a three point dip anywhere along the way and we will immediately reap 75% of the profit, as we did with our last (TLT) bear put spread.
I think this week flushed out a lot of the hotter short term money from the market in the humongous short squeeze that I warned you about. Positioning is now flatter. Mad Day Trader Jim Parker also thinks we could be in for a major trend reversal with next week?s Friday nonfarm payroll report.
In the meantime, the (TLT) could rise as much as a point higher to $116. That still gives me plenty of breathing room with this position, which has a breakeven point at $118.45, or a ten year Treasury yield of 2.25%. That sounds like a pretty good bet for me, now that we are headed into the slower summer months.
The best execution can be had by placing your bid for the entire spread in the middle market and waiting for the market to come to you. The difference between the bid and the offer on these deep in-the-money spread trades can be enormous. Don?t execute the legs individually or you will end up losing much of your profit.
Keep in mind that these are ballpark prices only. Spread pricing can be very volatile on expiration months farther out.
Here are the specific trades you need to execute this position:
Buy 39 July, 2014 (TLT) $121 puts at?????$6.90
Sell short 39 July, 2014 (TLT) $118 puts at..??.$4.35
Net Cost:??????????????????.....$2.55
Potential Profit: $3.00 - $2.55 = $0.45
(39 X 100 X $0.45) = $1,755 or 1.76% profit for the notional $100,000 portfolio.
As a potentially profitable opportunity presents itself, John will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what should be bought, when to buy it, and at what price. This is your chance to ?look over? John Thomas? shoulder as he gives you unparalleled insight on major world financial trends BEFORE they happen. Read more
While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Jim Parker, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.
While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Jim Parker, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.
Global Market Comments
May 29, 2014
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(JUNE 23 LONDON STRATEGY LUNCHEON)
(JOHN THOMAS AND ALAN PATCHING ON HEDGE FUND RADIO),
(UUP), (FXI), (FXA), (EWA), (AAPL), (GOOG),
(GLD), (SLV), (MON), (POT), (MOS),
(AND MY PREDICTION IS?.),
(TESTIMONIAL)
PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish (UUP)
iShares China Large-Cap (FXI)
CurrencyShares Australian Dollar Trust (FXA)
iShares MSCI Australia (EWA)
Apple Inc. (AAPL)
Google Inc. (GOOG)
SPDR Gold Shares (GLD)
iShares Silver Trust (SLV)
Monsanto Company (MON)
Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan, Inc. (POT)
The Mosaic Company (MOS)
During my recent trip to Australia, I had the privilege to be interviewed by Alan Patching, one of the leaders of the country?s vibrant business community, on his show, Transforming Business Minds.
Alan was the chief organizer of the 2000 Sydney Olympics. He is the author of several business books. He is also a professor at Bond University on Queensland?s Gold Coast in Australia. Patching is one of the top entrepreneurs in Australia, arranging tens of billions of dollars worth of transactions over the past decade.
During the interview, we covered about every asset class under the sun, looking for long and short opportunities. I discussed the ongoing global synchronized economic recovery and the implications for the market. I also covered the global geopolitical scene in depth.
I go into why the US dollar will remain a reserve currency. I explain how wars of the last 50 years were all about oil, and in the next 50 years they will revolve around food and water supplies. I analyze Apple?s (AAPL) prospects in depth.
Chinese money will continue to pour into Australia. I even reminisce about flying the best Russian fighters in the early nineties. There was that time when the CIA helped get my late wife out of a Russian jail. And, oh yes, I explain why the Dow Average is going to 200,000 by 2030!
I have broken up the extensive hour and a half interview into three 30-minute segments. You can purchase each one for $4.95 on Hedge Fund Radio by clicking: ?http://madhedgefundradio.com/radio-show/.
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