While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Jim Parker, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.
While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Jim Parker, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.
Global Market Comments
June 10, 2014
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(JULY 25 ZERMATT, SWITZERLAND GLOBAL STRATEGY SEMINAR),
(IT?S ?RISK ON? AGAIN),
(SPY), (CAT), (IBM), (JPM), (MSFT), (AAPL),
(TLT), (TBT), (MUB), (LQD), (LINE), (ELD), (FXE),
(ABOUT THAT TESLA RECOMMENDATION), (TSLA)
SPDR S&P 500 (SPY)
Caterpillar Inc. (CAT)
International Business Machines Corporation (IBM)
JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM)
Microsoft Corporation (MSFT)
Apple Inc. (AAPL)
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT)
ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (TBT)
iShares National AMT-Free Muni Bond (MUB)
iShares iBoxx $ Invst Grade Crp Bond (LQD)
Linn Energy, LLC (LINE)
WisdomTree Emerging Markets Local Debt (ELD)
CurrencyShares Euro Trust (FXE)
Tesla Motors, Inc. (TSLA)
?Well, I?ll either be up 25% by the end of June or I just blew up my 2014 performance.?
That is what I told my esteemed colleague, Mad Day Trader Jim Parker, right after I engineered a major ?RISK ON? adjustment for my model trading portfolio.
If I am right, and bonds peaked and yields bottomed for the year, then my followers will make a fortune. Money will pour out of bonds into shares and other risk assets, taking the indexes up substantially through December.
If I am dead wrong, then the market?s judgment could be harsh.
Welcome to show business.
Starting two weeks ago, a whole range of short-term risk indicators started flashing green lights.
Most importantly, the bond market (TLT), (TBT) topped out, taking with it the entire fixed income space into the toilet, including corporates (LQD), munis (MUB), junk (JNK), and emerging market debt (ELD). Only high yield master limited partnerships (LINE) and REIT?s were spared the decimation.
Then we saw the prices for credit default swaps utterly collapse or the cost of insurance for individual debt instruments. Why buy insurance if you are going to live forever?
Volatility hit decade lows at the $10 handle. Hundreds of large cap and technology stocks broke out to the upside on the charts, taking off like a scalded chimp.
Out went my Trade Alerts to buy (JPM), (IBM), (CAT), and (MSFT). Mad Day Trader Jim Parker successfully sold the euro short (FXE) and bought the grains against it (JJG).
Distress short covering of equities by hedge funds also showed it?s ugly hand. That is, ugly if you?re a hedge fund. Visions of resumes posted on Craig?s List danced in their minds or maybe a future as an Uber taxi driver. All we needed was a few prints of new all time highs by the major indexes, and it was off to the races.
Of course, the spark for the melt up was the healthy May nonfarm payroll report showing a gain of 217,000. The headline unemployment rate maintained a seven year low of 6.3%. When the (SPY) gapped up, it was all over but the crying.
Clearly, the pain trade is to the upside. Many hedge funds are still running net shorts, albeit of substantially reduced size. Active portfolio managers are underweight stocks. Even Apple (AAPL) is under owned as it approaches a new all time high. Hey Apple, post split under $100? Sounds like a bargain to me!
To see all of this happening in June, when stocks are entering a seasonally slow, weak period, is nothing less than amazing. To witness a flat line ?time? correction take place instead of a long overdue ?price? correction over the last three months, right at an all time high, is also a shocker.
This time it really is different.
That means the move in the S&P 500 up 10% by yearend is now a chip shot. It makes my own target of 15% to 2,200, derided by many as ?Mad? when I made it at the New Year, as far more realistic. It?s the story of my life.
Add in 3% of dividend income, and the large cap index could bring in a total return of 18% in 2014. That?s less than the 30% gain we saw in 2013. But it?s better than a poke in the eye with a sharp stick.
If you want to hear me expound on my current views at length, please listen to my interview on PreMarketPrep at Benzinga TV, by clicking: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-PQMtT_a7EE .
Could my ?Golden Age? scenario be unfolding early?
It?s Happening Sooner Than You Think
Come join Mad Day Trader Jim Parker and I for lunch at the Mad Hedge Fund Trader?s Global Strategy Luncheon, which we will be conducting in New York, NY on Tuesday, June 17, 2014. An excellent three course lunch will be provided. A PowerPoint presentation will be followed by an extended question and answer period.
I?ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, foreign currencies, commodities, precious metals, and real estate. And to keep you in suspense, I?ll be throwing a few surprises out there too. Enough charts, tables, graphs, and statistics will be thrown at you to keep your ears ringing for a week. Tickets are available for $248.
The formal luncheon will run from 12:00 to 2:00 PM. I?ll be arriving an hour early and leaving late in case anyone wants to have a one on one discussion, or just sit around and chew the fat about the financial markets.
The event will be held at a prestigious private club on Central Park South, the details of which will be emailed to you with your purchase confirmation.
I look forward to meeting you, and thank you for supporting my research. To purchase tickets for the luncheons, please go to my online store.
Will the person who bought Tesla shares (TSLA) on my recommendation last year at $30 please email me?
I have been traveling a lot recently and lost your email address. I would like to get a testimonial from you. The stock hit $250 earlier this year and is up 833% from your cost, making it one of the best performing shares in US over the last 18 months
With the money you?ve made you can probably buy several Teslas now. I recommend the high performance Model S-1 with the upgraded sound system and the 270-mile range. I have one, and they are to die for.
It?s a bargain at $110,000, considering there is no fuel or maintenance required for the life of the car (the power is almost free in California). And you can get $5,000 worth of state and federal tax refunds and credits for being so green, as well as a white sticker to drive in HOV lanes alone at rush hour. That, alone, will cut an hour off your commute each day
It's the only car I ever bought where the specifications keep improving every month with each automatic software update.
Only last night, the company adopted another one of my recommendations with it?s monthly software upgrade, to highlight public supercharging stations on the navigation system with a red flag, so I can conveniently stop off for a quick 45 minute top up.
Or you can wait until next year and by the four-wheel drive SUV Model X with the gull wing doors. I am on the waiting list for that one as well.
Don?t sell your stock either if you are a long-term player. My friend, CEO Elon Musk, is imminently going to announce the location of his new $5 billion ?gigafactory.? My bet is that California will be the winner of the location battle, as Texas and New Jersey have unwisely banned Tesla sales to protect the local dealer network and the firm is afraid that its workers will be arrested as illegal immigrants in ultra red state Arizona.
The project, one of the largest capital investments in US history, will, in one fell swoop, double global battery production.
That will lay the groundwork for the launch of its ?NextGen? vehicle in 2018. The $40,000, 300-mile range car will take Tesla to a global mass market of 500,000 units a year and more, compared to last year?s nascent, start up 20,000 in sales.
That should take the stock up to $500 in a few years and possibly even $1,000. This is why the investment giants like Fidelity are hanging in there with gigantic long positions.
The other major car companies are so far behind, they will never catch up with the technology. In fact, if you get another chance to buy the shares around $160, I would pick up more.
You owe me. Big Time.
You Owe Me
While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Jim Parker, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.
While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Jim Parker, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.
Global Market Comments
June 9, 2014
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(LAST CHANCE TO ATTEND THE JUNE 13-14 INVEST LIKE A MONSTER LAS VEGAS CONFERENCE)
(JULY 18 BARCELONA, SPAIN STRATEGY LUNCHEON)
(THE SOLAR ROAD REVISTED),
(AAPL), (GOOG), (TSLA), (FB), (TWTR)
Apple Inc. (AAPL)
Google Inc. (GOOG)
Tesla Motors, Inc. (TSLA)
Facebook, Inc. (FB)
Twitter, Inc. (TWTR)