Global Market Comments
July 4, 2013
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(PRESIDENT HILLARY AND THE MARKETS),
(TESTIMONIAL)
Yes, I know that the presidential election of 2016 is another two years off. But if you already know the outcome of that contest you can use it to your advantage trading the markets today.
You don?t want to get caught out like many conservatives did in 2012, who were forced to dump stock in a hurry to beat a surprise jump in capital gains taxes after an unexpected Obama win, triggering a 10% market correction.
By the way, that was the last 10% correction we got. It has been straight up from there.
If you have any doubt that Hillary Clinton will be the slam-dunk winner in 2016, take a look at the table below. According to a poll conducted by Quinnpiac University in New Haven, Connecticut, the former Secretary of State beats every Republic front-runner in the key battleground states of Florida and Ohio, often by huge margins.
Notice that the more conservative the candidate, the bigger the losing margin. I have always believed that the United States is a fundamentally moderate, middle of the road country.
Whenever either party leans towards extremes, they are sent to the woodshed, where they are punished severely by the voters. At the end of the day, most Americans just wish that the government would go away.
In another poll I saw Clinton is leading by 60%-40% with Republican women. Democrats are counting on many to cross party lines to vote for the first woman president, as they did for the first black one in 2008. Most other leading, non-partisan polls are reaching the same conclusion.
You can forget about Senator Ted Cruz from Texas because he was born in Canada, with a Canadian father. After carping about Obama being from Kenya for eight years, the last thing the Republicans will do is run another foreigner for president.
So what will President Hillary mean for the market? There?s no point in asking her. Officially, she is not even running yet. She is on the lecture circuit now earning $225,000 a pop. But I have been in touch with some of her recent and past staff people, and the answer seems to be not much.
With our Middle Eastern wars done, Al Qaida a distant memory, the economy going great guns, unemployment down, and the US energy independent, Clinton should inherit a country that is in pretty good shape.
With the economy reaccelerating back to a 3%-4% growth rate, and no new wars, the budget should be close to balancing. The dollar will be endemically strong.
We should be at the threshold of a Pax Americana. In these goldilocks conditions stock portfolios should rise by 10% a year, and 13% with dividends, and inflation will stay under control. Bonds will slowly grind down and interest rates up, but no by much. That works for me.
So, social issues will be the top legislative priority. You can expect to hear a lot about gun control. Assault rifles, especially military ones like the AR-15, and high capacity magazines will become history. You can also count on federal restrictions on the resale of firearms and closer tracking of convicted criminals.
Immigration will be another hot button item. Expect measures to permit the 10 million illegals currently in the country to gain access to citizenship, subject to strict conditions. This is the umpteenth time we have done this in my lifetime.
Clinton will also make an effort to roll back restrictions on voter?s rights now rampant in red states. Ten-hour lines to vote in black neighborhoods in Miami should become a thing of the past. The same will hold true for state restrictions on abortion, such as mandatory ultrasounds.
President Obama did the heavy lifting with financial regulation through Dodd-Frank and with health care in the Affordable Care Act. It will be up to Hillary to implement and enforce existing law, a far easier task. Who knows? The website might even be working by 2016?
The same will be true with tax reform. Obama delivered the big hit when the federal income tax rate jumped from 35% to 39.50%. Clinton will probably only nibble at the edges. It will be hands off for the middle class.
Target number one: the ?carried interest? treatment that assures that most hedge fund managers, like me, pay no more than a 15% annual rate. Capital gains could also see another 5% move.
But with the federal budget balancing, there shouldn?t be any need to raise taxes, unless you want to pay off the $17.5 trillion national debt faster. In any case, that will happen by 2030 under current law, and with improved growth outlook.
Big earners can expect to see their favorite deductions whittled back as well. Home mortgage interest deductibility will get capped at mortgage values of $250,000-$500,000. Limits will be placed on tax-free charitable donations. Company provided health insurance will become fully taxable as regular income, and will eventually get blended in with Obamacare.
The really big impact President Clinton will have on the future of the country will be with her Supreme Court appointments. It is likely that at least one conservative justice will retire or die before the end of her second term in 2024.
That will enable her to shift the 5-4 convective majority to a liberal one for the first time in 50 years. That assures a liberal bent in the Court?s decisions until 2064. After that, I will be long dead, or 112, so I won?t care what happens.
A rapid succession of legal challenges will follow that will eventually bring to an end of gerrymandering of congressional elections and anonymous corporate campaign donations. That will turn Texas, Arizona and several other states into blue ones. Gay rights will reach full equality, if it hasn?t already happened by then.
This has already happened in California. What was the outcome? Radicals on both the right and left were abandoned in droves, as there was no longer any mileage there. Everyone suddenly became a moderate and pragmatist. Gridlock ended, and the government returned to doing the people?s work. Ratings on cable TV talk shows fell.
Who will Hillary bring into her cabinet? I suggest former presidential candidate, Mitt Romney, as the next Secretary of Health and Social Services. He is the only person who has every gotten government provided health care to work in the US, with his highly successful Massachusetts program.
I think it will take ten years to fully implement Obamacare and for it to become actuarially sound. In the end, Obamacare should cost the government nothing, and reduce the cost of health care for the rest of us. That?s how the Lloyds of London insurance exchange functions. A private equity guy should be able to deliver that, right?
So who will be Hillary?s first appointment to the Supreme Court? President Obama will be only 55 when his second term ends and is a constitutional law professor with a proven track record. The kids are already placed in local schools. The only thing he will be need is a new residence. What else is an ex president supposed to do?
The bigger question will be what to do about Bill? Will he be the first husband, the dude, or just another Mr. President.
Mr. and Mrs. President? The possibilities boggle the mind.
Looking for a Replay
Are You Ready for President Hillary?
While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Jim Parker, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points. Read more
As a potentially profitable opportunity presents itself, John will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what should be bought, when to buy it, and at what price. This is your chance to ?look over? John Thomas? shoulder as he gives you unparalleled insight on major world financial trends BEFORE they happen.
Further Update to: Trade Alert - (FXE)
Buy the Currency Shares Euro Trust (FXE) August, 2014 $136-$138 in-the-money bear put spread at $1.72 or best
Opening Trade
7-3-2014
Expiration date: August 15, 2014
Portfolio weighting: 10%
Number of Contracts: 58
We saw the multi month selloff going into the European Central Bank?s announcement of interest rate cuts and quantitative easing last month. Since then we have seen a classic ?buy the rumor, sell the news? short covering rally that has taken the euro up a counterintuitive two points.
The second move is just about to run out of steam.
Weakening data from the European economy, which is trailing that of the US, Japan, Australia and even China, suggests that the Euro zone will see more easing before it experiences a tightening.
That is bad for the Euro and great for the US dollar. So I am happy to sell short the beleaguered European currency here.
I have also been devious in the selection of my strikes. The near $136 put strike that I am shorting here against the long $138 put is exactly 50% of the move down from the double top at the March and May highs.
It also helps that the (FXE) was firmly rejected from the 50 day moving average.
We are getting a further assist from the calendar, which is giving us an unusually short expiration on August 15. Most of Europe will be closed until then.
I am also in a rush to get these out before the long July 4 weekend sucks out what little premium is left in the options market.
Finally, I can use the Currency Shares Euro Trust (FXE) August, 2014 $136-$138 in-the-money bear put spread to hedge my existing position in the (SPY) July $199-$202 bear put spread. US stock market weakness generally triggers a strong dollar and a weak Euro.
Keep in mind that the options market is highly illiquid now, so don?t hold me to these prices. They are ballpark estimates, at best.
The best execution can be had by placing your bid for the entire spread in the middle market and waiting for the market to come to you. The difference between the bid and the offer on these deep in-the-money spread trades can be enormous.
Don?t execute the legs individually or you will end up losing much of your profit. Spread pricing can be very volatile on expiration months farther out.
If the price of this spread has moved more than 5% by the time you receive this Trade Alert, don?t chase it. Wait for the next one. There are plenty of fish in the sea.
Here are the specific trades you need to execute this position:
Buy 58 August, 2014 (FXE) $138 puts at?????$3.45
Sell short 58 August, 2014 (FXE) $136 puts at..??.$1.73
Net Cost:??????????????????.....$1.72
Potential Profit: $2.00 - $1.72 = $0.22
(58 X 100 X $0.28) = $1,624 or 1.62% profit for the notional $100,000 portfolio.
The Time to Dump the Euro is Here
As a potentially profitable opportunity presents itself, John will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what should be bought, when to buy it, and at what price. This is your chance to ?look over? John Thomas? shoulder as he gives you unparalleled insight on major world financial trends BEFORE they happen.
Further Update to: Trade Alert -(GM)
Buy the General Motors (GM) August, 2014 $33-$35 in-the-money bull call spread at $1.79 or best
Opening Trade
7-3-2014
Opening Trade
expiration date: August 15, 2014
Portfolio weighting: 10%
Number of Contracts = 56 contracts
?
It is safe to say that all of the bad news is finally in the price at General Motors (GM). In the wake of the latest batch of recalls this week, the total number of recalls now equals virtually all of the company?s production of the last five years.
Woe to the outside supplier who provided those faulty, but cheap ignition switches to the beleaguered company!
What is more important ace mediator, Kenneth Feinberg, has finally come up with a number to offer the grieving families of the 17 who were killed driving GM?s deathtraps of yore. A fatality is now worth $1 million, and the company is offering as little as $20,000 for lesser accidents.
GM should put these numbers on their new car stickers.
In all honesty, this is just a ?feel good? gesture. The company that is actually responsible for these deaths went bankrupt in 2009. The new GM bears no legal liability whatsoever.
However, the company needs to preserve the value of its brand. The GM logo still goes out with every vehicle the firm manufacturers. So, it will do the right thing for these victims.
Even if you apply these numbers to the much higher number of deaths claimed by plaintiffs? lawyers, more than 88, the total liability will not be enough to put a substantial dent in GM?s earnings. It is really just sofa change for them.
Many of the higher figures include drunken driving deaths and fatalities of those driving at high speed without seatbelts. But every law school graduate out there is gunning for a piece of the action. Don?t you just love America!
So all of this bad news is really good news in disguise. This will enable GM shares to catch up with those at Ford and Toyota, which have been on a tear this year. The industry seems poised to reach annual production of 17 million in 2014, an eight-year high. This will be great for profits for everyone.
I knew as much a few weeks ago, when I learned of massive insider buying of stock at GM all the way down to the middle management level. As has so often been the case this year, I waited for a dip that never came.
Now that the upside breakout is undeniable, I have to jump in. The shares are starting from such a low base that even if a 5%-10% correction comes, the August, 2014 $33-$35 in-the-money bull call spread should be able to weather the selling.
I can also use this position to hedge my short in the S&P 500 (SPY), with which I am feeling a small amount of heat.
Things are not so good that I am going to run out and buy a GM tomorrow. I am happy with my Tesla Model S-1, thank you very much.
Keep in mind that the options market is highly illiquid now, so don?t hold me to these prices. They are ballpark estimates, at best. I?m just trying to point you in the right direction. If you want to play with the strikes and the maturities, that?s fine with me.
The best execution can be had by placing your bid for the entire spread in the middle market and waiting for the market to come to you. The difference between the bid and the offer on these deep in-the-money spread trades can be enormous.
Don?t execute the legs individually or you will end up losing much of your profit. Spread pricing can be very volatile on expiration months farther out.
If the price of this spread has moved more than 5% by the time you receive this Trade Alert, don?t chase it. Wait for the next one. There are plenty of fish in the sea.
Here are the specific trades you need to execute this position:
Buy 56 August, 2014 (GM) $33 calls at?????$4.90
Sell short 56 August, 2014 (CAT) $35 calls at..??.$3.11
Net Cost:??????????????????.....$1.79
Potential Profit: $2.00 - $1.79 = $0.21
(56 X 100 X $0.21) = $1,170 or 1.17% profit for the notional $100,000 portfolio.
Time to Take Another Ride with GM
As a potentially profitable opportunity presents itself, John will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what should be bought, when to buy it, and at what price. This is your chance to ?look over? John Thomas? shoulder as he gives you unparalleled insight on major world financial trends BEFORE they happen. Read more
As a potentially profitable opportunity presents itself, John will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what should be bought, when to buy it, and at what price. Read more
As a potentially profitable opportunity presents itself, John will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what should be bought, when to buy it, and at what price. This is your chance to ?look over? John Thomas? shoulder as he gives you unparalleled insight on major world financial trends BEFORE they happen. Read more
Global Market Comments
July 3, 2014
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(MAD HEDGE FUND TRADER SETS NEW ALL TIME HIGH WITH 19.74% GAIN IN 2014),
(GOOGL), (TLT), (CAT), (IBM), (SPY), (VIX), (MSFT),
(POPULATION BOMB ECHOES),
(POT), (MOS), (AGU), (WEAT), (CORN), (SOYB), (RJA)
(THE COOLEST TOMBSTONE CONTEST)
Google Inc. (GOOGL)
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT)
Caterpillar Inc. (CAT)
International Business Machines Corporation (IBM)
SPDR S&P 500 (SPY)
VOLATILITY S&P 500 (^VIX)
Microsoft Corporation (MSFT)
Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan, Inc. (POT)
The Mosaic Company (MOS)
Agrium Inc. (AGU)
Teucrium Wheat (WEAT)
Teucrium Corn (CORN)
Teucrium Soybean (SOYB)
ELEMENTS Rogers Intl Commodity Agri ETN (RJA)
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