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Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Follow Up to Trade Alert - (AAPL) July 14, 2014

Trade Alert

As a potentially profitable opportunity presents itself, John will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what should be bought, when to buy it, and at what price. This is your chance to ?look over? John Thomas? shoulder as he gives you unparalleled insight on major world financial trends BEFORE they happen.

Further Update to: Trade Alert - (AAPL)

Buy the Apple (AAPL) August, 2014 $85-$90 in-the-money bull call spread at $4.00 or best

Opening Trade

7-10-2014

expiration date: August 15, 2014

Portfolio weighting: 10%

Number of Contracts = 25 contracts

?
Last Thursday, Trade Alert followers saw Mad Day Trader Jim Parker and I both jump into Apple (AAPL) on the long side, once again. When two old critters with a combined 85 years of trading experience, such as ourselves, agree on something, it is usually a pretty good idea.

We were both responding to a rare $3, or 3.1% dip in the share price of Apple in response to the financial crisis du jour emanating from Europe?thanks to Portugal?s Banco Espiritu Santo.

Of course, Apple has nothing to do with the Portuguese financial system, except to the extent that they have to recycle all the profits from the many iPhones they sell in the country. It didn?t take traders long to figure this out, running (AAPL) shares right back up to unchanged on the day.

Jim already has issued a second Trade Alert to take profits?such is the short-term nature of his strategy. I, however, am looking to hold on longer, possibly as far out as September.

That is when the next generation iPhone 6 will almost certainly make its debut. A similar launch two years ago marked a multiyear high in the stock.

Rumors about Apple products have grown into a full-scale cottage industry of its own over the decades. Sometimes these speculations come true, and with the shares in play, it is worthwhile to explore a few of these.

The big one is that some hedge funds and/or business publications have bribed underpaid workers at China?s Foxconn, the principal manufacturers of the world?s most popular smart phone, to reveal that they have an order to supply a stunning 68 million units by the end of the year.

This is more than double the initial order for the iPhone 5s. Foxconn, a company famed for working its people to death, is hiring a stunning 100,000 new workers to meet the gargantuan order. Confirmation has been found all the way down the supply line among OEM parts manufacturers.

One possible explanation for the massive ramp up in numbers is that Apple may offer two versions of the iPhone 6, one with a 4.7-inch screen, and a second premium model with a much more generous 5.5-inch screen. The company did much the same last year, when it brought out both the iPhone 5s and the 5c. Higher prices and profit margins are predicted for both products.

The move is in no doubt in response to the emerging ?phablet? market, or the convergence of the smart phone and the tablet. Google?s Android and Samsung?s Galaxy are already well down the road on this front.

This is in response to the runaway growth of Apple?s market share in China, where larger screens are needed to read Chinese characters. It also may be an attempt to capture more of the baby boomer market here in the US, where aging (but big spending) eyes require larger letters and images.

As for me, I can only use my iPhone 5s with reading glasses.

All of this explains why Apple has been on an absolute tear for the past year, rising some 78%. It is the world?s largest company once again, with a market capitalization at an eye popping $574 billion. Exxon (XOM), eat your heart out.

Brokers upgrades of the company are now nearly a daily occurrence. It has also been a major component of NASDAQ?s recent blistering gains, which account for more than 20% of the tech heavy index.

Unfortunately, I have seen this movie before, in 2012, when the iPhone 5 first came out. Which is why I?m only hanging on until September.

I was never one of the many Apple naysayers. I think CEO Tim Cook has done a great job transitioning the firm from the sway of the late founder, Steve Jobs. I think the shares will one day see $150, if not $200.

But given the history, when shares plunged 45% after the last major product launch, and the temptation to take sizeable profits in an otherwise morose market, caution is called for.

Reweighting of investment funds with major Apple holdings, which will have to unload stock to avoid going too overweight in their annual report, will be a further drag on the stock going into yearend.
Keep in mind that the options market is highly illiquid now, so don?t hold me to these prices. They are ballpark estimates, at best.

The best execution can be had by placing your bid for the entire spread in the middle market and waiting for the market to come to you. The difference between the bid and the offer on these deep in-the-money spread trades can be enormous.

Don?t execute the legs individually or you will end up losing much of your profit. Spread pricing can be very volatile on expiration months farther out.

If the price of this spread has moved more than 5% by the time you receive this Trade Alert, don?t chase it. Wait for the next one. There are plenty of fish in the sea.

Here are the specific trades you need to execute this position:

Buy 25 August, 2014 (AAPL) $85 calls at?????$9.60

Sell short 25 August, 2014 (AAPL) $90 calls at..??.$5.60
Net Cost:??????????????????.....$4.00

Potential Profit: $5.00 - $4.00 = $1.00

(25 X 100 X $1.00) = $2,500 or 2.50% profit for the notional $100,000 portfolio.

apple7102014

applecompI Hear They?re About to Upgrade?

 

appletrucking...And Diversify

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/applecomp-e1405343304221.jpg 400 296 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2014-07-14 09:16:432014-07-14 09:16:43Follow Up to Trade Alert - (AAPL) July 14, 2014
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

July 14, 2014

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
July 14, 2014
Fiat Lux

SPECIAL MAD DAY TRADER ISSUE

Featured Trade:
(MAD DAY TRADER JIM PARKER?S Q3 VIEWS),
(SPX), ($NDX), (QQQ), (TLT), (TBT), (FXA), (FXE), (FXY),
(GLD), (GDX), (SLV), (USO), (UNG), (LNG),
(CORN), (WEAT), (SOYB), (DBA)

SPX Corporation (SPW)
Nasdaq 100 Index ($NDX)
PowerShares QQQ (QQQ)
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT)
ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (TBT)
CurrencyShares Australian Dollar ETF (FXA)
CurrencyShares Euro ETF (FXE)
CurrencyShares Japanese Yen ETF (FXY)
SPDR Gold Shares (GLD)
Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX)
iShares Silver Trust (SLV)
United States Oil (USO)
United States Natural Gas (UNG)
Cheniere Energy, Inc. (LNG)
Teucrium Corn ETF (CORN)
Teucrium Wheat ETF (WEAT)
Teucrium Soybean ETF (SOYB)
PowerShares DB Agriculture (DBA)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2014-07-14 01:04:032014-07-14 01:04:03July 14, 2014
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Mad Day Trader Jim Parker?s Q3 Views

Diary, Newsletter

The stock markets are on the verge of a small correction, perhaps less than 5%, which should unfold over the next six weeks.

There is just not enough juice in a mini crisis triggered by one lousy Portuguese bank, the Banco Espiritu Santo, to take us any further. Bonds globally should put in their highs for the year during this period.

After that, it will be off to the races with a major year-end rally that could take us up another 10%. Both old tech and new tech, plus biotech and social media will be the front runners in this next leg of the bull market. Fixed income products will suffer across the board.

These were the results of the exhaustive research Jim undertakes every quarter using his proprietary analytical system. His goal is to define the best long and short opportunities across all asset classes.

Ignore him at your peril. Last year Jim?s system delivered a gob smacking trading return of over 300%.

Jim, a 40-year veteran of the trading pits in Chicago, would tell you all this himself. But as he is a product of the Windy City?s lamentable school district, the task of translating his pivot points, swing counts, and support and resistance levels into simple ?BUYS? and ?SELLS? falls to me.

What else can I say?

By the way, a pivot point is a number Jim?s system serves up once a quarter dictating the tone of the market for individual securities. Trade above the pivot, and we are in ?RISK ON? mode. Trade below it, and we need to take a decidedly ?RISK OFF? posture.

Swing counts then project the distance a security should travel once the directional call has been determined. Think of it as your own private inertial navigation system for your trading approach.

Equities

With that said, Jim?s pivot for the S&P 500 for Q3 is 1,970. As we are well below that now, you can expect some further work to be done on the downside, possibly as low at the 1,875-1,895 range over the next six weeks.?That would then be a sweet spot to initiate new longs.

The NASDAQ 100 has a pivot of 3,811 for Q3, a few percent above here. Jump back into the technology arena with a tight stop in the 3,700-3,725 neighborhood, or down some 5%, which works out to around $90 for ETF (QQQ) players.

Among foreign markets, Jim likes Japan?s Nikkei (DXJ), is wary of the German DAX, and is neutral on Australia (EWA).

Point a gun to his head, and Jim will opt for the Wisdom Tree Europe Hedged Equity Fund (HEDJ), a customized long European equity/short Euro ETF that effectively prices these stocks in US dollars. Think of it as a (DXJ) with a French accent.

?Bonds

Jim sees a rare, generational opportunity, to sell bonds setting up for August. They could grind up until then off the back of today?s news from Europe, but not by much. Use $137.00 as the pivot point for the 30-year bonds futures.

The market?s Focus will remain on the SPX/Bond spread, as it has all year. When the Equity Indices go into profit taking mode, bonds are the only place to park money, taking prices northward.

Long term, he favors the short side of the bond market, when conditions allow.?His game plan remains to sell bonds at these levels, with tight stops, until proven wrong.

My own strategy of buying out of the money (TLT) put spreads on a monthly basis also works perfectly in this scenario. Use every three-point rally as an opportunity to get in.

We are on the threshold of a more normalized interest rate environment, with a long awaited reversion to the mean in rates imminent. Jim says that the entire bond world is about to roll over.

Foreign Currencies

Jim isn?t getting too excited about foreign currencies these days, which appear to have fallen into a bottomless volatility trap. He doesn?t see any big moves unless a serious risk off trend develops in the equity markets, which is unlikely.

Use the Australian dollar (FXA) as your lead currency with which to make directional calls for the entire asset class. The pivot there is $94.60 in the cash market. As we are now at $93.68, stand aside.

The Japanese yen (FXY) has done its best impression of a Kansas horizon this year of any financial asset. It will continue to flat line as long as the jury is out on Prime Minister Shinzo Abe?s ?third arrow? economic and reform strategy. The yen will eventually weaken against the greenback, but it could be a long wait. Until then, use 101.33 as a pivot.

If you have to hate a currency in 2014, make it the Euro (FXE), with a pivot of $139.50. Sell every rally against this figure until the cows come home. The fundamentals for a weaker continental currency are building by the day. But we won?t see real fireworks until we close below $135.50. Then we?ll be targeting $127.50.

Commodities

Jim likes the precious metals (GLD), (SLV) and thinks the recent bottom will last for some time. This is further confirmed by the miners (GDX), which appear to have staged a major turnaround.

Bond market rallies have been highly correlated to metals rallies this year, at least for over the short term. So follow the sparkly stuff along with a bond rally into August. Lower rates will be price positive the metals. Use $1,265-$1,275 as your pivot for gold going forward. For silver use $19.70.

Copper (CU) is a bit of a conundrum, as it is stuck, in the middle of one-year range, so don?t chase recent rally. Use $2.95 as the pivot there. It?s not going anywhere until China decides what to do with its economy.

Don?t buy into the upside breakout school of thought for oil (USO) until we close over 104.70-105.30 (last qtr's high). That?s where you can count on the buy stops to kick in. At the current $102, we are firmly in bear territory. Talk to Jim when oil breaks this quarter?s resistance and upside momentum level at 107.50.

Infrastructures plays are still the best way to participate in any move in the natural gas (UNG) market. At the top of the list is Mad Hedge Fund Trader long time favorite, Cheniere Energy (LNG), up from $6 to $74.??(LNG) should be on your shopping list on any big equity index sell-off.?This week may see a low, and then a substantial rally when July futures expire.

The Ags

Agricultural commodities (CORN), (SOYB), (WEAT), (DBA) have been the major disaster area of 2014, thanks to the best growing conditions in history. Not only has the weather been perfect, the US Department of Agriculture keeps ?finding? new stockpiles. Conditions have been improving in major export markets abroad, as well.

Farmers may get a break this week when multiple futures contracts expire. At the very least, we should get a dead cat bounce. After that, it?s up to Mother Nature.

By the way, Jim Parker?s Mad Day Trader service has attracted a substantial following over the past year. If you are not already getting Jim?s dynamite short term ?BUY? and ?SELL? calls, please get yourself the unfair advantage you deserve.

Just email Nancy in customer support at support@madhedgefundtrader.com and ask for the $1,500 a year upgrade from your existing Global Trading Dispatch service to Mad Hedge Fund Trader PRO. The service includes Jim?s timely Trade Alerts, a running daily market commentary, and the daily morning webinar, The Opening Bell with Jim Parker.

HEDJ 7-10-14

S.HEDJ 7-10-14

SPX 7-10-14

RUT 7-10-14

TNX 7-10-14

CRB 7-9-14

Jim ParkerThe Quarterly Calls Are In

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/HEDJ-7-10-14.jpg 469 603 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2014-07-14 01:03:572014-07-14 01:03:57Mad Day Trader Jim Parker?s Q3 Views
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

July 14, 2014 - Quote of the Day

Quote of the Day

?Successful investing is about people agreeing with you?.later,? said Jim Grant of Grants Interest Rate Observer.

Jeff Bridges

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/Jeff-Bridges.jpg 384 387 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2014-07-14 01:02:162014-07-14 01:02:16July 14, 2014 - Quote of the Day
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

July 11, 2014 - MDT Pro Tips A.M.

MDT Alert

While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Jim Parker, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points. Read more

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2014-07-11 09:51:292014-07-11 09:51:29July 11, 2014 - MDT Pro Tips A.M.
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

July 11, 2014

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
July 11, 2014
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(THURSDAY, JULY 17 GLOBAL STRATEGY WEBINAR FROM BARCELONA, SPAIN),
(JULY 24 ZERMATT, SWITZERLAND GLOBAL STRATEGY SEMINAR),
(WILL SYNBIO SAVE OR DESTROY THE WORLD?)

Health Care Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLV)
Monsanto Company (MON)
SPDR S&P Biotech ETF (XBI)
SPDR S&P Pharmaceuticals ETF (XPH)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2014-07-11 01:06:132014-07-11 01:06:13July 11, 2014
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

July 24 Zermatt, Switzerland Global Strategy Seminar

Diary, Newsletter

Come join me for afternoon tea for the Mad Hedge Fund Trader?s Global Strategy Seminar, which I will be conducting high in the Alps in Zermatt, Switzerland at 2:00 PM on Thursday, July 24, 2014.

A PowerPoint presentation will be followed by an open discussion on the crucial issues facing investors today. Coffee, tea, and schnapps will be made available, along with light snacks.

You are welcome to attend in your mountain climbing gear, but you will have to leave your boots at the door. Socks only are welcome, and if it?s cold, we will throw some extra wood on the fire. Last year, someone came down from the Matterhorn summit straight to the seminar, sunburned and tired, but elated. He even gave me a valued pebble from the summit.

I?ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, foreign currencies, commodities, precious metals, and real estate. And to keep you in suspense, I?ll be throwing a few surprises out there too. Enough charts, tables, graphs, and statistics will be thrown at you to keep your ears ringing for a week. Tickets are available for $195.

I?ll be arriving early and leaving late in case anyone wants to have a one on one discussion, or just sit around and chew the fat about the financial markets.

The event will be held at a central Zermatt hotel with a great Matterhorn view, operated by one of the village?s oldest families and long time friends of mine. The hotel is just down the street from the town?s beautiful 17th century church.

The details will be emailed directly to you with your confirmation.

I look forward to meeting you, and thank you for supporting my research. To purchase tickets for the luncheons, please go to my online store.

matterhorn-Copy2-1

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/03/matterhorn-Copy2-1.jpg 300 400 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2014-07-11 01:04:172014-07-11 01:04:17July 24 Zermatt, Switzerland Global Strategy Seminar
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

July 10, 2014 - MDT - Miners

MDT Alert

While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Jim Parker, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points. Read more

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2014-07-10 15:40:312014-07-10 15:40:31July 10, 2014 - MDT - Miners
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

July 10, 2014 - MDT - AAPL Follow Up

MDT Alert

While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Jim Parker, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points. Read more

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2014-07-10 11:46:412014-07-10 11:46:41July 10, 2014 - MDT - AAPL Follow Up
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

July 10, 2014 - MDT - AAPL Alert

MDT Alert

While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Jim Parker, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points. Read more

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2014-07-10 11:45:242014-07-10 11:45:24July 10, 2014 - MDT - AAPL Alert
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There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. MadHedgeFundTrader.com and all individuals affiliated with this site assume no responsibilities for your trading and investment results. The indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features are for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Information for futures trading observations are obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not warrant its completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the trading observations is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness of the information. You must assess the risk of any trade with your broker and make your own independent decisions regarding any securities mentioned herein. Affiliates of MadHedgeFundTrader.com may have a position or effect transactions in the securities described herein (or options thereon) and/or otherwise employ trading strategies that may be consistent or inconsistent with the provided strategies.

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