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Mad Hedge Fund Trader

November 19, 2014 - MDT - XOM Alert

MDT Alert

While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Jim Parker, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points. Read more

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2014-11-19 14:30:392014-11-19 14:30:39November 19, 2014 - MDT - XOM Alert
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

November 19, 2014 - MDT - Midday Missive

MDT Alert

While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Jim Parker, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points. Read more

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2014-11-19 11:11:522014-11-19 11:11:52November 19, 2014 - MDT - Midday Missive
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

November 19, 2014 - MDT Pro Tips A.M.

MDT Alert

While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Jim Parker, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points. Read more

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2014-11-19 11:10:262014-11-19 11:10:26November 19, 2014 - MDT Pro Tips A.M.
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Trade Alert - (BABA) November 19, 2014

Trade Alert

As a potentially profitable opportunity presents itself, John will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what should be bought, when to buy it, and at what price. Read more

0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2014-11-19 10:07:242014-11-19 10:07:24Trade Alert - (BABA) November 19, 2014
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

November 19, 2014

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
November 19, 2014
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(WHY WATER WILL SOON BE WORTH MORE THAN OIL),
(CGW), (PHO), (FIW), (VE), (TTEK), (PNR),
(TESTIMONIAL)
(REPORT FROM NEW ZEALAND),
(ENZL)

Guggenheim S&P Global Water ETF (CGW)
PowerShares Water Resources ETF (PHO)
First Trust ISE Water ETF (FIW)
Veolia Environnement S.A. (VE)
Tetra Tech Inc. (TTEK)
Pentair plc (PNR)
iShares MSCI New Zealand Capped (ENZL)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2014-11-19 09:42:592014-11-19 09:42:59November 19, 2014
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Report from New Zealand

Diary, Newsletter

35 degrees South latitude, 174 degrees East longitude.

I am writing this report from the Duke of Marlborough Hotel and Pub in remote Russell, off the east coast of New Zealand?s North Island. Once known as ?The Hell Hole of the Pacific? in 1835, no less an authority than Charles Darwin, claimed this 19th century whaling port was populated with ?the refuse of humanity.?

It has since been cleaned up, gentrified, and turned into a gentrifying tourist Mecca. It is much like Lahaina on Maui, Hawaii was in the early seventies, before the blighting high rise hotels and condos went up.

New Zealand Women in CostumeThe Residents of Russell were Most Welcoming

New Zealand Woment in Costume 2Others Had Different Opinions

The bar was packed to the gunwales with drunken and riotous rugby fans screaming their lungs out in support of their team in the Super Rugby League game. When South Africa won, I bought a round of drinks for the house, but first had to arm-wrestle a deeply tanned and craggy faced Welshman for the right to do so. I hope my credit card doesn?t get cancelled when the bill comes through for NZ$1,046.29. ?Thomas? is a Welsh name, isn?t it?

The trip started auspiciously at SFO when I found myself checking in behind a group of heavily tattooed, bulked up, but amiable Maoris. A few days later, I found myself at a Maori tribal dinner, where I feasted on a meal of feral pig and sweet potatoes cooked deep in the earth, and was instructed on the finer points of the Haka dance.

Let me tell you that there is a reason why there is not a national chain of Maori fast food restaurants offering their primitive cuisine on every street corner. No offense intended to my hosts, but you would only want to eat it if you were starving to death.

John Thomas New Zeland MaoriOne of My Many High Level Contacts

The rental company was out of cars, thanks to the games, but managed to come up with a battered old Toyota Camry with bald tires, breaks well past their prime, and leaking fluids from every orifice. In other words, it was a lot like me. I was OK with the left hand drive, having lived for 20 years in Japan and England.

But the stick shift certainly made things interesting. I can?t tell you how many times I turned on the windshield wipers instead of the right turn signal, as the controls are reversed. I headed north from Auckland hoping to find better weather, picking up hitchhikers along the way to absorb the local lore.

My dad was here 70 years ago with the Marine Corps, training for the invasion of Guadalcanal, and always remarked how friendly approachable the women were. I found them friendly, yes, but not so approachable. Maybe this is because dad was a combat ready 19 year old, and I am a combat ready, but aging 62 year old fart.

The countryside was incredibly lush and green, mountainous, and covered with massive cycad ferns and kauri trees ensnarled by choking vines. Cleared grazing lands were dotted with sheep. The Maori are ever present, accounting for a substantial part of the rural population. Every town name seems to start with the letter ?W?, as in Whangaparaoa, Whangarei, and Waipu.

New Zealand Kauri TreeThe Largest Tree in New Zealand

One of the most interesting conversations that I have had this year was with an aged Maori historian and Shaman at the Waitangi Treaty Grounds. When I told her I was part Cherokee, Sioux, and Delaware Indian, she opened right up and let loose for two hours.

It turns out that tribal groups around the world are cooperating and coordinating legal attacks on establishment land ownership around the world. Everyone from the Maoris to Hawaiians, Navajo?s, Australian, Aborigines, and Finnish Laps are involved, and are getting legal aid from the United Nations to fund this.

Pick Up Truck Mad ButcherPerhaps a Distant Kiwi Cousin?

The Maoris have been especially successful, scoring a $170 million payoff from their own government. The money went into community centers and education in the most Maori dominated parts of the country.

It isn?t often that I get to discuss global economics with a Neolithic tribal representative, and I relished the opportunity. I am always looking for the new view, and I?m sure there is much we can learn from 8,000 BC.

New Zealand Street Sign

When I checked into the Pahia Beach Hotel and Spa, I did what I always do when I visit the Southern hemisphere. I flush the toilet, watching with satisfaction as the water disappears in a counterclockwise fashion, thanks to the Coriolis force (check your physics textbook). In the Northern hemisphere is goes down clockwise. If you don?t believe me, go try it. That night I found the Southern Cross, the only one of 88 constellations not visible at home.

We all thought New Zealand was toast when Great Britain cut the economic umbilical cord by joining the European Community in 1973, leaving the land of the kiwis out in the cold. A radical series of reforms saved the country in 1984. The financial system was deregulated and exchange rates were freed. Agricultural subsidies were cut, forcing farmers to become more efficient and globally price competitive.

Kiwi Zone Sign

Through a series of fortunate historical accidents, it then entered the sweet spot of the global economy. It was too small to have its own car industry, so it had nothing to lose when Japan took over that business. The same occurred with manufacturing, which China swallowed whole in the past decade.

Today, services and tourism account for 70% of GDP. With a per capita GDP of $27,130, New Zealand ranks 33rd in the world, behind the US at $46.810 (7th), but well ahead of China at $7,544 (94th).

Pony Poo For SaleKiwis Will Sell You Anything

Today, the World Bank ranks New Zealand as the most business friendly country on the planet. It has the lowest taxes in the developed world, and an unemployment rate at an enviable 6.6%. People are happy and the cities bustle. Recently, the economy has been booming because of the baby formula tainting scandal in China. New Zealand supplies one third of the world?s milk powder, and Chinese mothers who can afford it are now feeding only imported foreign brands to their kids.

This makes all of the country?s assets long term buys, including both the New Zealand dollar and the iShares MSCI New Zealand Investable Index Fund ETF (ENZL). The Chinese certainly think so, who have emerged as far and away the largest buyers of the country?s real estate. Use the big dips to take positions.

New Zealand YardAnd Never Throw Anything Out

Well, I have to go now, or I?ll miss the last ferry back to Pahia on the mainland. Besides, that waitress across the room is starting to wink at me.

To watch a video of my giving thanks for your support from New Zealand?s Mount Maunganui, a long dead volcano, please click here.

John Thomas

enzl 11-18-14

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/John-Thomas-New-Zeland-Maori.jpg 474 356 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2014-11-19 09:33:172014-11-19 09:33:17Report from New Zealand
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

November 18, 2014 - MDT - Midday Missive

MDT Alert

While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Jim Parker, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points. Read more

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2014-11-18 13:07:112014-11-18 13:07:11November 18, 2014 - MDT - Midday Missive
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

November 18, 2014 - MDT Pro Tips A.M.

MDT Alert

While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Jim Parker, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points. Read more

0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2014-11-18 09:49:082014-11-18 09:49:08November 18, 2014 - MDT Pro Tips A.M.
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

November 18, 2014

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
November 18, 2014
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(NOVEMBER 19 GLOBAL STRATEGY WEBINAR),
(JAPAN?S RUDE AWAKENING),
(FXY), (YCS), (DXJ),
(IS USA, INC. A ?SELL??)

CurrencyShares Japanese Yen ETF (FXY)
ProShares UltraShort Yen (YCS)
WisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity ETF (DXJ)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2014-11-18 09:45:252014-11-18 09:45:25November 18, 2014
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Japan?s Rude Awakening

Diary, Newsletter, Research

Traders in Japan suffered a rude awakening yesterday morning when the Ministry of International Trade and Industry announced that the troubled country?s GDP shrunk by -1.6% during the third quarter. Analysts had been expecting a gain of 2.2%.

What?s worse, this is the second consecutive quarter of negative GDP, meaning that the Land of the Rising Sun is now solidly in recession, the fourth since 2008, and the umpteenth since the country fell off a demographic cliff 25 years ago.

The Nikkei Average took it on the kisser, plunging some 3% from its high for the year. The Wisdom Tree Japan Hedged Equity ETF (DXJ) declined by half as much.

Half of the gain since the Bank of Japan?s ?shock and awe? monetization measures on October 15 went up in smoke. Now we know why the central bank had been so aggressive and preemptive.

There are immediate implications from the dismal numbers. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is almost certain to delay a hike in Japan?s VAT sales tax from 8% to 10% scheduled for the new fiscal year starting April 1.

This year?s rise, from 5% to 8%, is viewed as the chief culprit responsible for the shocking slowdown.

It turns out that clever consumers rushed to beat the tax, pulled their spending forward, creating an artificial boost to economic growth in the first quarter. This lulled the government and Japanese retailers, into thinking their recovery strategy was working.

After the tax increase took effect, the spending boom ground to a complete halt, and the economy came to a juddering stop. The end result was a huge inventory build that was the most destructive aspect of the terrible GDP numbers, as higher prices caused consumers to stay away from the stores in droves.

The conservative Abe was behind the government?s grab for more revenues to head off the country?s runaway budget deficit, which is now seen by many economists as reaching catastrophic proportions, some 160% of total GDP.

The problem is that governments should balance budgets when they can, not when they want to. I have lost count of how many Japanese recoveries have been smothered in the cradle by premature tax increases over the last two decades.

Thank goodness the US government had the sense not to try that here, or we?d all be standing in breadlines by now.

The global implications of a new Japanese recession are, fortunately, not as dire. It?s not like many analysts had built in a Japanese economic miracle into their long-term growth forecasts. Japan only accounts for 7% of world GDP these days, and losing a couple percent of that annualized doesn?t move the needle much.

The fall of the Japanese yen this year has been so rapid and dramatic that there hasn?t nearly been enough time for it to have a positive impact on the economy. It will going forward. That alone should pull the country back out of recession in the current quarter.

Remember too that since Japan is far more dependent than America on imported energy, it will benefit greater from the ongoing collapse in the price of oil.

The disastrous GDP numbers should also encourage the BOJ to become even more aggressive in its own reflationary efforts. Think more growth of the money supply, more quantitative easing, and faster. Buy Japanese printing press stocks!

Fortunately, all of these global, multi market cross currents distill down into a single trade for you and I: sell more yen.

A substantially weaker Japanese currency seems to be the one stop solution for all of Japan?s many intractable problems.

You already saw this in action in the foreign currency markets on Monday after the GDP numbers came out. Normally, a downside surprise of this magnitude on the economic data front generates a big ?flight to safety? move across all asset classes. That would have caused the Japanese yen to rise sharply against the buck.

Not this time. In fact, it barely moved. Japan and yen bears weren?t waiting a nanosecond to sell short more of the beleaguered currency, offsetting whatever profit taking there was from pre existing shorts the GDP figures might have incited.

So the set up here is to sell short the Currency Shares Japanese Yen Trust ETF (FXE), or to buy the 2X ProShares Ultra Short Yen ETF (YCS), two positions I have been recommending non stop for the past three years.

It looks like we have only just gotten started with out big down move in the yen.

 

NIKK 11-7-14

DXJ 11-17-14

FXY 11-17-14+

YCS 11-14-17

Woman - Hari KariBack in Recession Again

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/Woman-Hari-Kari.jpg 280 396 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2014-11-18 09:38:312014-11-18 09:38:31Japan?s Rude Awakening
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There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. MadHedgeFundTrader.com and all individuals affiliated with this site assume no responsibilities for your trading and investment results. The indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features are for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Information for futures trading observations are obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not warrant its completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the trading observations is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness of the information. You must assess the risk of any trade with your broker and make your own independent decisions regarding any securities mentioned herein. Affiliates of MadHedgeFundTrader.com may have a position or effect transactions in the securities described herein (or options thereon) and/or otherwise employ trading strategies that may be consistent or inconsistent with the provided strategies.

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