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Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Cashing in on My Shorts

Newsletter

Take the easy money and run. No one every got fired for taking a profit. That?s the mood I was in when I came in and saw my long volatility ETF (VXX) spiking and my short in the S&P 500 (SPY) cratering. I sent out Trade Alerts immediately that took my model-trading portfolio into a rare 100% cash position.

The Volatility Index (VIX) is up a breakneck 35% in a week, while the ETF (VXX) has tacked on 11%. You don?t get such heart palpitating moves like this very often, especially when they are all going in your favor.

It helped that Mad Day Trader Jim Parker, rushed the chart below to me right after the opening showing that the NASDAQ 100, the chief whipping boy in this selloff, is becoming severely oversold and fast approaching a major area of support (the lime green line). Bonds (TLT) are stalling at $110.60, and the ?RISK OFF? move in the Japanese yen (FXY) is approaching the upper limit of its 2014 range.

This all adds up to the possibility that another one of those ?rip your face off? short covering rallies could be near.

The rule in this type of market is to take the quick profits. You especially want to date, and not marry, the (VXX), since the contango over time can cost you your shirt.

Trading on the short side is a totally different animal than traditional long side plays. It is much harder work, as shorts behave totally differently than longs. The movie is on fast forward and you must act quickly.

To be up 15.45% so far in 2014, a down year when most investors are tearing their hair out, and up a meteoric 7.89% in April, is nothing less than heroic. Eight out of my last ten Trade Alerts have been profitable. The email plaudits have already started pouring in. Now all your friends at the country club can hate you, but only if you followed my advice.

Let me tell you what I did right this week, so you can take a page from the playbook of the master.

1) I kept the positions small, so I could sleep at night
2) I did the hard trade, selling when everyone else loved this market
3) I took trading profits quickly
4) I ignored the talking heads on TV so I wouldn?t puke out at the bottom
5) I didn?t take the Princess cruise from San Francisco to Los Angeles, where 50 passengers and 25 crew came down with norovirus. Imagine getting sick before your get to Mexico.

Is it possible that I am improving with age? That I?m becoming a better trader as I get older? That the payoff for a 45-year accumulation of market experience keeps increasing? What a concept!

I don?t think this correction is over. Vladimir Putin can drop a bombshell on the markets at any time. We are going into the traditional May-October ?RISK OFF? seasonal with markets still very near all time highs. The midterm elections in November are introducing a new level of uncertainty. The IPO bubble continues unabated (there are seven today!), and will only end in tears.

And who knows when another cruise ship is going to come down with norovirus?

But nothing moves in a straight line. It?s time to move to the sidelines so I can reload on the short side after the next short covering rally exhausts itself.

As for me, I am going to spend the rest of the day writing checks to the US Treasury to pay taxes for myself, the numerous entities I control, and a gaggle of impoverished relatives. All American tax returns are due on Tuesday.

Then I?m going down to Union Square in San Francisco and buy myself a new Brioni pin stripe suit, another pair of Bruno Magli alligator skin shoes, and have a kir royal at the top of the Mark Hopkins Hotel, thankful for my good fortune that I can pay all these bills.

VIX 4-11-14

VXX 4-11-14

SPY 4-11-14

USA 4-11-14

FXY 4-11-14

TLT 4-11-14

Burning Building

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/Burning-Building-e1430840521423.jpg 308 400 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2014-04-14 01:05:442014-04-14 01:05:44Cashing in on My Shorts
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Testimonial

Testimonials

?Great trading!?

Judd
Chicago, IL

John Thomas

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/John-Thomas2.jpg 298 358 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2014-04-14 01:04:222014-04-14 01:04:22Testimonial
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Where?s This Market Bottom?

Newsletter

After yesterday?s 267 point swoon, the S&P 500 (SPX) has fallen 4.2% from its late March peak. It looks like the ?Sell in May? crowd, of which I was one, is having the last laugh after all.

Is this a modest 5% correction in a continuing bull market? Or is it the beginning of a Harry Dent style crash to (SPX) 300 (click here for the interview on Hedge Fund Radio http://madhedgefundradio.com/radio-show/ )? Let?s go to the videotape.

This was one of the most overbought stock markets in my career. I have to think back to the top of the dotcom boom in 2000 and the pinnacle of the Tokyo bubble in 1989 to recall similar levels of ebullience.

In fact three weeks ago, we were at a real risk of a major melt up if Vladimir Putin hadn?t come along. So the modest selling we have seen so far has been welcome, even by the bulls.

There is still an excellent chance the current decline will be nothing more than a pit stop on the way to new highs, as long as WW III doesn?t break out. Institutional weightings in equities are low, compared to 20 years ago. Individuals have yet to really dip their toes in stocks, still scared by the events of 2008-09. It seems that everyone in the world is overweight bonds.

In recent days, the ten-year Treasury bond yield has fallen to 2.62% a mere 35 basis points over the S&P 500 yield ratio at 2.27%. With a price/earnings multiple of 15.5 times this years earnings, we are bang in the middle of a long time historic range of 10-22.

Zero overnight interest rates argue that we should be at the top end of that range. The argument that the ?Buy the Dip? crowd is still lurking under the market is real, just a little further than the recent dips allowed.

So how much lower do we have to go? The following is an itinerary of what your summer trading might look like, expressed in (SPX) terms:

6-3.2%% - 1,839 was the 50 day moving average, and we decisively broke through that yesterday. The augurs for more weakness to come.

-8.4% - 1,740 is the 200 day moving average and could be our next sop

-16.8 ? 1,580 is the breakout from the double top that extends all the way back to 1999

To confuse you even further, contemplate the concept that I refer to as the ?Lead Contract.? There is always a lead contract around, one on which all traders maintain a laser like focus, which leads every other financial product out there. It says ?Jump,? and we ask ?How High?? It is also always changing.

Right now, the NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) is the lead contract. Every flight from risk during the past two years has been preceded by falling technology stocks. If you want to get a preview of each day?s US trading, stay up the night before and watch the action in Tokyo, as I often do.

You might even learn a word or two of Japanese, which will come in handy when ordering in the better New York sushi shops.

SPX 4-4-14The Best Case

 

$SPX 4-4-14The Worst Case

 

Girl with Chopsticks

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/Girl-with-Chopsticks.jpg 406 273 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2014-04-14 01:03:582014-04-14 01:03:58Where?s This Market Bottom?
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

April 14, 2014 - Quote of the Day

Quote of the Day

?If economists could manage to get themselves thought of as humble, competent people, on a level with dentists, that would be splendid,? said the ground breaking economist, John Maynard Keynes.

Dentist - Drill

 

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/Dentist-Drill.jpg 320 239 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2014-04-14 01:02:322014-04-14 01:02:32April 14, 2014 - Quote of the Day
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Follow Up to Trade Alert - (SPY) April 11, 2014

Trade Alert

As a potentially profitable opportunity presents itself, John will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what should be bought, when to buy it, and at what price. This is your chance to ?look over? John Thomas? shoulder as he gives you unparalleled insight on major world financial trends BEFORE they happen.

Further Update to: Trade Alert -(SPY)

Sell the S&P 500 (SPY) May, 2014 $191-$194 in-the-money bear put spread at $2.86 or best

Closing Trade - not for new subscribers

4-11-2014

expiration date: May 16, 2014

Portfolio weighting: 10%

Number of Contracts = 42 contracts

Take the money and run. No one ever got fired for taking a profit. That?s the mood I was in when I came in and saw my long volatility ETF (VXX) spiking and my short in the S&P 500 (SPY) cratering.

It helped that Mad Day Trader Jim Parker, rushed the chart below to me right after the opening showing that the NASDAQ 100, the chief whipping boy in this selloff, is becoming severely oversold and fast approaching a major area of support (the lime green line). Bonds (TLT) are stalling at $110.60, and the ?RISK OFF? move in the Japanese yen (FXY) is approaching the upper limit of its 2014 range.

This all adds up to the possibility that another one of those ?rip your face off? short covering rallies could be near.

The rule in this type of market is to take the quick profits. You especially want to date, and not marry, the (VXX), since the contango over time can cost you your shirt.

Trading on the short side is a totally different animal than traditional long side plays. It is much harder work, as shorts behave totally differently than longs. The movie is on fast forward and you must act quickly.

To be up 15.45% so far in 2014, a down year when most investors are tearing their hair out, and up a meteoric 7.89% in April, is nothing less than heroic. The email plaudits have already started pouring in. Now all your friends at the country club can hate you, but only if you followed my advice.

Let me tell you what I did right this week, so you can take a page from the playbook of the master.

1) I kept the positions small, so I could sleep at night
2) I did the hard trade, selling when everyone else loved this market
3) I took trading profits quickly
4) I ignored the talking heads on TV so I wouldn?t puke out at the bottom
5) I didn?t take the Princess cruise from San Francisco to Los Angeles, where 50 passengers and 25 crew came down with norovirus. Imagine getting sick before you get to Mexico.

Is it possible that I am improving with age? That I?m becoming a better trader as I get older? That the payoff for a 45-year accumulation of market experience keeps increasing? What a concept!

I don?t think this correction is over. Vladimir Putin can drop a bombshell on the markets at any time. We are going into the traditional May-October ?RISK OFF? seasonal with markets still very near all time highs. The midterm elections in November are introducing a new level of uncertainty. The IPO bubble continues unabated (there are seven today!), and will only end in tears.

And who knows when another cruise ship is going to come down with norovirus?

But nothing moves in a straight line. It?s time to move to the sidelines so I can reload on the short side after the next short covering rally exhausts itself.

As for me, I am going to spend the rest of the day writing checks to the US Treasury to pay taxes for myself, the numerous entities I control, and a gaggle of impoverished relatives. All American tax returns are due on Tuesday.

Then I?m going down to Union Square in San Francisco and buy myself a new Brioni suit, another pair of Bruno Magli shoes, and have a kir royal at the top of the Mark Hopkins Hotel, thankful for my good fortune that I can pay all these bills.

The best execution can be had by placing your bid for the entire spread in the middle market and waiting for the market to come to you. The difference between the bid and the offer on these deep in-the-money spread trades can be enormous. Don?t execute the legs individually or you will end up losing much of your profit.
Keep in mind that these are ballpark prices only. Spread pricing can be very volatile on expiration months farther out.

Here are the specific trades you need to execute this position:

Sell 42 May, 2014 (SPY) $194 puts at?????$11.66

Buy to cover short 42 May, 2014 (SPY) $191 puts at..??.$8.80
Proceeds:??????????????????.....$2.86

Profit: $2.86 - $2.38 = $0.48

(42 X 100 X $0.48) = $2,016 or 2.02% profit for the notional $100,000 portfolio.

SPY 4-11-14

USA 4-11-14

FXY 4-11-14

TLT 4-11-14

Burning Building

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/Burning-Building-e1430840521423.jpg 308 400 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2014-04-11 11:40:002014-04-11 11:40:00Follow Up to Trade Alert - (SPY) April 11, 2014
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Trade Alert - (SPY) April 11, 2014

Trade Alert

As a potentially profitable opportunity presents itself, John will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what should be bought, when to buy it, and at what price. Read more

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/10/slider-05-trader-alert.jpg 316 600 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2014-04-11 10:08:522014-04-11 10:08:52Trade Alert - (SPY) April 11, 2014
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Trade Alert - (VXX) April 11, 2014

Trade Alert

As a potentially profitable opportunity presents itself, John will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what should be bought, when to buy it, and at what price. This is your chance to ?look over? John Thomas? shoulder as he gives you unparalleled insight on major world financial trends BEFORE they happen. Read more

0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2014-04-11 10:05:032014-04-11 10:05:03Trade Alert - (VXX) April 11, 2014
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

April 11, 2014 - MDT - Expected Price Action - Shopping List

MDT Alert

While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Jim Parker, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.

Read more

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2014-04-11 09:24:452014-04-11 09:24:45April 11, 2014 - MDT - Expected Price Action - Shopping List
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

April 11, 2014 - MDT Pro Tips A.M.

MDT Alert

While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Jim Parker, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.

Read more

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2014-04-11 09:18:172014-04-11 09:18:17April 11, 2014 - MDT Pro Tips A.M.
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

April 11, 2014

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
April 11, 2014
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(FRIDAY APRIL 25 SAN FRANCISCO STRATEGY LUNCHEON)
(MAD HEDGE FUND TRADER BLASTS TO NEW ALL TIME HIGH)
(SPY), (IWM), (VXX), (TLT), (GE),
?(GS), (FXY), (UUP), (GLD), (USO),
(THE RETURN OF PETER THE GREAT), (RSX)

SPDR S&P 500 (SPY)
iShares Russell 2000 (IWM)
iPath S&P 500 VIX ST Futures ETN (VXX)
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT)
General Electric Company (GE)
The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (GS)
CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust (FXY)
PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish (UUP)
SPDR Gold Shares (GLD)
United States Oil (USO)
Market Vectors Russia ETF (RSX)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2014-04-11 01:06:512014-04-11 01:06:51April 11, 2014
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There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. MadHedgeFundTrader.com and all individuals affiliated with this site assume no responsibilities for your trading and investment results. The indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features are for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Information for futures trading observations are obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not warrant its completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the trading observations is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness of the information. You must assess the risk of any trade with your broker and make your own independent decisions regarding any securities mentioned herein. Affiliates of MadHedgeFundTrader.com may have a position or effect transactions in the securities described herein (or options thereon) and/or otherwise employ trading strategies that may be consistent or inconsistent with the provided strategies.

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