Come join me for lunch at the Mad Hedge Fund Trader?s Global Strategy Update, which I will be conducting in San Francisco on Friday, April 25, 2014. An excellent meal will be followed by a wide ranging discussion and an extended question and answer period.
I?ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, currencies, commodities, precious metals, and real estate. And to keep you in suspense, I?ll be throwing a few surprises out there too. Tickets are available for $179.
I?ll be arriving at 11:00 and leaving late in case anyone wants to have a one on one discussion, or just sit around and chew the fat about the financial markets.
The lunch will be held at a private club in downtown San Francisco near Union Square that will be emailed with your purchase confirmation.
I look forward to meeting you, and thank you for supporting my research.
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/02/San-Francisco-e1410363065903.jpg238359Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2014-03-10 02:02:292014-03-10 02:02:29SOLD OUT - Friday, April 25 San Francisco Strategy Luncheon
Featured Trade: (THE MARKET LEADERSHIP CHANGE HAS BEGUN), (XLK), (XLV), (AAPL), (XLF), (BAC), (GS), (JPM), (GM), (F) (WATCH OUT! YOU PC IS WATCHING)
Technology Select Sector SPDR?? (XLK)
Health Care Select Sector SPDR?? (XLV)
Apple Inc. (AAPL)
Financial Select Sector SPDR?? (XLF)
Bank of America Corporation (BAC)
The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (GS)
JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM)
General Motors Company (GM)
Ford Motor Co. (F)
https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png00Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2014-03-10 01:05:202014-03-10 01:05:20March 10, 2014
Owners of technology (XLK) and health care stocks (XLV) have certainly had a great year.
Except for the round of profit taking that did a quick hit and run in January, these two groups have been moving from strength to strength, punching through to multiyear highs.
That is, until last week.
Starting with the Ukraine induced plunge a week ago, these two leadership groups have started moving in a rather arthritic fashion, substantially underperforming the S&P 500 (SPY). It is all unfamiliar territory for these golden boys.
You also see this in the broader indexes, with NASDAQ starting to trail the main market for the first time in ages. This is why Mad Day Trader Jim Parker shot out Alerts to buy protective puts in the (QQQ) with a one week view.
Is the bull market over? Should you sell everything and immediately go into cash? Is it time to go hide under your bed?
I don?t think so.
All we are seeing is a long awaited leadership change in the market. Tech and health care will throttle back from their torrid pace. It doesn?t mean that these sectors are now to be given up for dead. You should wallpaper your spare bathroom with high tech share certificates (as I once did with my Japanese equity warrants after their crash). They just need a rest. This is why I skipped Apple (AAPL) in my latest round of ?RISK ON? Trade Alerts.
In the meantime, financial stocks (XLF) have moved to the fore to grab the baton after a two-month rest of their own. This is why I sent you Trade Alerts last week to buy Bank of America (BAC), Goldman Sachs (GS), and General Motors (GM).
A shift like this makes all the sense in the world. Bonds (TLT) were great performers in 2014 until a week ago, when they double topped on the charts at $109. That was the logic behind sending you my Trade Alert to sell short bonds.
When bonds fall, interest rates rise, some 20 basis points on the ten year Treasury bond in a mere five days. Who does well when rates rise? Banks, which can now charge more for their loans while the cost of funds, the deposit rates you earn, are still close to zero. That widens bank profit margins, increasing profits. The technical term for this, which you will hear about on TV, is the ?steepening of the yield curve.? Bottom line: buy bank stocks.
They could rise a lot. If Treasury yields back all the way up to 3.05% and the (TLT) revisits its $101 low, the bank shares could go on a real tear. Jim Parker?s medium term target for (BAC) is $23, up a robust 30% from here.
I already have written up a Trade Alert to pick up another bank, JP Morgan (JPM). But I will sit on it until I can catch a dip in the share price, even a piddling one.
And what about the autos? The message shouted out as loud and clear by the red-hot February nonfarm payroll print of 175,000 is that the economy is stronger than anyone thinks. This is an out there view, which I have been arguing vociferously since the summer.
The ferocious winter will no doubt cost retailers some clothing sales. No one is looking to buy a new winter coat in March. Year on year, Chicago has gone from six inches to an astounding seven feet of snow, and I?m told that everyone there is in an unspeakably foul mood, throwing empty bear cans at the TV set when the weather man appears.
This is not so for the auto industry. If buyers couldn?t find their local dealers under the snow, they will return during fairer climes with a check to take advantage of record low interest rates. At the end of the day, buying a car on dealer credit, or a lease, is a nice way to indirectly short the bond market, which we all know, is now in a new 30-year bear market.
Despite the endless blizzards that kept much of the east buried this year, the auto sales figures have held up surprisingly well. The industry is now running at a 15.7 million unit per year annualized rate, up from the 9 million unit trough seen in 2009.
It all sets up a nice upside surprise in carmaker profits after the spring thaw. You want to go out and purchase the entire sector, including General Motors (GM), Ford (F), and all of the subsidiary parts suppliers.
But Which One is On Sale?
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/Cars-Snow-Covered.jpg285430Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2014-03-10 01:04:292014-03-10 01:04:29The Market Leadership Change Has Begun
Hey! You there, staring at this monitor. This is your PC talking to you. No, not you over there standing in the background. I?m talking to the guy sitting in front of me poking at my keys. Ouch! That one hurt!
So you thought no one was watching, did you? Let me straighten you out. About a month ago you clicked on a certain website, and I installed myself as a cookie on your computer, which is an innocuous little text file that you can?t see.
Since then, I have been tracking your every move, recording websites you clicked on, the pages you visited, and the stuff you ordered. I then used this handy little algorithm to build a profile of exactly who you are. I now know you better than your own mother. In fact, I know you better than you know yourself.
For example, I am aware that you make more than $250,000 a year, live in a posh zip code in San Francisco, belong to a fancy country club, and drive a Mercedes. You donate to Republican political causes, send your kids to a prestigious private school, and bill it all to an American Express Platinum Card. Did I leave anything out?
Because I know every detail of your life, down to your inside leg measurement, I am able to harness the power of this machine to more precisely service your every need. That includes directing advertising to you, which you have a high probability of clicking on.
The more you click on my ads, the higher prices I can realize for those ads. The ad campaigns you now see are unique to your own personal computer because they are tied to your IP address. My program, called ?behavioral targeting? is the next ?big thing? in online advertising. It?s all part of the brave new world.
I see you have been shopping for a new car. Check out the new Hyundai at http://www.hyundaiusa.com/ , which offers the same quality as your existing ride, at half the price. Your clicks this morning suggest you?re taking your ?significant other? out to dinner tonight. Might I suggest Gary Danko?s on Bay Street at http://www.garydanko.com/site/bio.html ? The rack of lamb is to die for there.
Since we?re chatting here mano a mano, I noticed that that last pair of jeans you ordered from http://us.levi.com/home/index.jsp had a 42-inch waist, up from the 40?s in your last order. Better lay off those cheeseburgers. Pretty soon, they?ll be calling you ?tubby? or ?fatso?. Better visit http://www.weightwatchers.com/Index.aspx soon, or the legs on that chair might buckle out from under you.
Worried about privacy? Privacy, shmivacy. There hasn?t been privacy in this country since the first social security number was handed out in 1936. And don?t expect any relief from Congress. I doubt half those dummies even know how to turn on their own PC?s.
Don?t even think about trying to delete me. I?m a ?flash cookie?, an insidious little piece of code that reinstalls every time you try that. Think of me as a toenail fungus. Once you catch me, I?m almost impossible to get rid of.
I hope you don?t mind, but I?ve been passing your personal details around to some of my buddies at other websites. That?s why when you clicked on http://www.nfl.com/ you got deluged with product offers from your local team, the San Francisco 49ers. I?ve got friends at Google, Facebook, MySpace, and pretty much everywhere. Can I help it if I?m a popular guy? I bet the view from those 50 yard seats is great, isn?t it?
I noticed that your spending habits don?t exactly match with the income you reported on your last tax return. Do you think the IRS would like to know about that? I bet you didn?t know the agency offers a 10% reward for turning in tax cheats.
How did you like those triple X DVD?s you bought last week? Whoa! Hot, hot, hot! I hope your employer never finds out about those. It might not go down too well at your next performance review.
I thought it was lovely that you bought your spouse a two carat, yellow, vvs1, round cut diamond ring for $26,000 from http://www.bluenile.com/ for your 30th wedding anniversary. But who is Lolita, the Argentine firecracker, in Miami Beach? Does the old wifey know you sent her a $2,000 pair of diamond stud earrings? What?s it worth to you for me to keep mum on this? Maybe you should take a quick peak at http://www.divorcelawfirms.com/ and see what you?re in for?
Naw, I?m just pulling your leg. This is all just between friends, right? Think of it as a doctor/patient relationship. I?ll tell you what. See that leaderboard ad at the top of the page? Just click on that and we?ll call it even. Oooh that felt good! Click it again. Oh, baby! Not too many times. You?ll trigger my anti click fraud program.
Now you see that wide skyscraper add over on the right? Click on that too. Oh baby! Click it again! And there?s a little button ad at the bottom of the page. No, not that one. A little lower. What was that little cutie?s name in Miami again? Aaaaah.
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/computer.jpg285275Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2014-03-10 01:03:532014-03-10 01:03:53Be Careful! Your PC is Watching
While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Jim Parker, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.
While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Jim Parker, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.
As a potentially profitable opportunity presents itself, John will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what should be bought, when to buy it, and at what price. Read more
https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/10/slider-05-trader-alert.jpg316600Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2014-03-07 11:26:572014-03-07 11:26:57Trade Alert - (TLT) March 7, 2014
As a potentially profitable opportunity presents itself, John will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what should be bought, when to buy it, and at what price. This is your chance to ?look over? John Thomas? shoulder as he gives you unparalleled insight on major world financial trends BEFORE they happen.Read more
00Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2014-03-07 10:56:412014-03-07 10:56:41Trade Alert - (GM) March 7, 2014
While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Jim Parker, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.
While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Jim Parker, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.
https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png00Mad Hedge Fund Traderhttps://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.pngMad Hedge Fund Trader2014-03-07 09:10:552014-03-07 09:10:55March 7, 2014 - MDT - CAT Alert
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