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Mad Hedge Fund Trader

February 20, 2014 - Quote of the Day

Quote of the Day

?Asking if Hillary Clinton is going to run for president in 2016 is like asking if John Dillinger is going to rob a bank,? said conservative commentator, Mike Murphy.

Hillary Clinton

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Mad Hedge Fund Trader

February 19, 2014 - MDT - Late Observations

MDT Alert

While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Jim Parker, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.

Read more

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Mad Hedge Fund Trader

February 19, 2014 - MDT - Midday Missive

MDT Alert

While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Jim Parker, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.

Read more

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Mad Hedge Fund Trader

February 19, 2014 - MDT Pro Tips A.M.

MDT Alert

While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Jim Parker, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.

Read more

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Mad Hedge Fund Trader

February 19, 2014

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
February 19, 2014
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(LAST CHANCE TO ATTEND THE SATURDAY FEBRUARY 22 BRISBANE AUSTRALIA STRATEGY LUNCH)
(NOT YOUR FATHER?S RAILROADS),
(UNP), (CSX), (NSC), (CP),
(THE WORST TRADE OF ALL TIME), (GLD)

Union Pacific Corporation (UNP)
CSX Corp. (CSX)
Norfolk Southern Corporation (NSC)
Canadian Pacific Railway Limited (CP)
SPDR Gold Shares (GLD)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2014-02-19 01:06:272014-02-19 01:06:27February 19, 2014
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Not Your Father?s Railroads

Diary, Newsletter

When I rode Amtrak?s California Zephyr service from Chicago to San Francisco last year, we passed countless trains heading west hauling hoppers full of coal for shipment to China.

This year I took the same trip. The coal trains were gone. Instead I saw 100 car long tanker trains transporting crude oil from North Dakota south to the Gulf Coast. I thought, ?There?s got to be a trade here.? It turns out I was right.

Look at the share prices of the major listed railroads, and it is clear they have been chugging right along to produce one of the best performances of 2013. These include Union Pacific (UNP), CSX Corp (CSX), Norfolk Southern (NSC), and Canadian Pacific (CP). In the meantime, coal shares, like Arch Coal (ACI) have been one of the worst performing this year, down 35%.

Those of a certain age, such as myself, remember railroads as one of the great black holes of American industry. During the sixties, they were constantly on strike, always late, and delivered terrible service. A friend of mine taking a passenger train from New Mexico to Los Angeles found his car abandoned on a siding for 24 hours, where he froze and starved until discovered.

New airlines and the trucking industry were eating their lunch. They also hemorrhaged money like crazy. The industry finally hit bottom in 1970, when the then dominant Penn Central Railroad went bankrupt, freight was spun off, and the government owned Amtrak passenger service was created out of the ashes. I know all of this because my late uncle was the treasurer of Penn Central.

Fast forward nearly half a century, and what you find is not your father?s railroad. While no one was looking, they quietly became one of the best run and most efficient industries in America. Unions were tamed, costs slashed, and roads were reorganized and consolidated.

The government provided a major assist with a sweeping deregulation. It became tremendously concentrated, with just four roads dominating the country, down from hundreds a century ago, giving you a great oligopoly play. The quality of management improved dramatically.

Then the business started to catch a few lucky breaks from globalization. The China boom that started in the nineties created enormous demand for shipment inland of manufactured goods from west coast ports. A huge trade also developed moving western coal back out to the Middle Kingdom, which now accounts for 70% of all traffic. The ?fracking? boom is having the same impact on the North/South oil by rail business.

All of this has ushered in a second ?golden age? for the railroad industry. This year, the industry is expected to pour $14 billion into new capital investment. The US Department of Transportation expects gross revenues to rise by 50% to $27.5 billion by 2040. The net of all of this is that freight rates are rising right when costs are falling, sending railroad profitability through the roof.

Union Pacific is investing a breathtaking $3.6 billion to build a gigantic transnational freight terminal in Santa Teresa, NM. It is also spending $500 million building a new bridge across the Mississippi River at Canton, Iowa. Lines everywhere are getting double tracked or upgraded. Mountain tunnels are getting rebored to accommodate double-stacked sea containers.

Indeed, the lines have become so efficient, that overnight couriers, like FedEx (FDX) and UPS (UPS), are diverting a growing share of their own traffic. Their on time record is better than that of competing truckers, who face delays from traffic jams and crumbling roads, and are still hobbled by antiquated regulation.

I have some firsthand knowledge of this expansion. Every October 1, I volunteer as a docent at the Truckee, California Historical Society on the anniversary of the fateful day in 1846 when the ill-fated Donner Party was snowed in. There, I guide groups of tourists over the same pass my ancestors crossed during the 1849 gold rush. The scars on enormous ancient pines made by passing wagon wheels are still visible.

During 1866-1869, thousands of Chinese laborers blasted a tunnel through a mile of solid granite to complete the Transcontinental Railroad. I can guide my guests through that tunnel today with flashlights because (UNP) moved the line to a new tunnel a mile south to improve the grade. The ceiling is still covered with soot from the old wood and coal-fired engines.

While the rebirth of this industry has been impressive, conditions look like they will get better still. Massive international investment in Mexico (low end manufacturing) and Canada (natural resources) promise to boost rail traffic with the US.

The rapidly accelerating ?onshoring? trend, whereby American companies relocate manufacturing facilities from overseas back home, creates new rail traffic as well. It turns out that factories that produce the biggest and heaviest products are coming home first, all great cargo for railroads.

And who knew? Railroads are also a ?green? play. As Burlington Northern Railroad owner, Warren Buffett, never tires of pointing out, it requires only one gallon of diesel fuel to move a ton of freight 500 miles. That makes it four times more energy efficient than competing trucks.

In fact, many companies are now looking to railroads to reduce their overall carbon footprints. Warren doesn?t need any convincing himself. The $34 billion he invested in the Burlington Northern Railroad two years ago has probably doubled in value since then.

You have probably all figured out by now that I am a serious train nut, beyond the industry?s investment possibilities. My past letters have chronicled adventures riding the Orient Express from London to Venice, and Amtrak from New York to San Francisco. I even once considered buying my own steam railroad; the fabled ?Skunk? train in Mendocino, California, until I figured out that it was a bottomless money pit. Some 50 years of deferred maintenance is not a pretty sight.

It gets worse. Union Pacific still maintains in running condition some of the largest steam engines every built, for historical and public relations purposes. One, the ?Old 844? once steamed its way over the High Sierras to San Francisco on a nostalgia tour.

The 120-ton behemoth was built during WWII to haul heavy loads of steel, ammunition, and armaments to California ports to fight the war against Japan. The 4-8-4-class engine could pull 26 passenger cars at 100 mph.

When the engine passed, I felt the blast of heat of the boiler singe my face. No wonder people love these things! To watch the video, please click here and hit the ?PLAY? arrow in the lower left hand corner. Please excuse the shaky picture. I shot this with one hand, while using my other hand to restrain my over excited kids from running on to the tracks to touch the laboring beast.

UNP 2-4-14

CSX 2-4-14

NSC 2-4-14

CP 2-4-14

ACI 2-4-14

Rail Cargo Volume

Train-Cargo

Amtrak Map

0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2014-02-19 01:04:182014-02-19 01:04:18Not Your Father?s Railroads
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

February 18, 2014 - MDT - Midday Missive

MDT Alert

While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Jim Parker, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.

Read more

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2014-02-18 10:36:032014-02-18 10:36:03February 18, 2014 - MDT - Midday Missive
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

February 18, 2014 - MDT Pro Tips A.M.

MDT Alert

While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Jim Parker, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.

Read more

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2014-02-18 10:23:012014-02-18 10:23:01February 18, 2014 - MDT Pro Tips A.M.
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

February 18, 2014

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
February 18, 2014
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(LAST CHANCE TO ATTEND THE THURSDAY FEBRUARY 20 MELBOURNE, AUSTRALIA STRATEGY LUNCH)
(AN EVENING WITH GOVERNMENT MOTORS), (GM),
(BUSINESS IS BOOMING AT ROUGH TIMES),
(GLD), (SLV), (CCJ), (NLR)

General Motors Company (GM)
SPDR Gold Shares (GLD)
iShares Silver Trust (SLV)
Cameco Corporation (CCJ)
Market Vectors Uranium+Nuclear Enrgy ETF (NLR)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2014-02-18 01:05:442014-02-18 01:05:44February 18, 2014
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

An Evening with ?Government Motors?

Diary, Newsletter

Long-term readers of this letter are well aware of my antipathy towards General Motors (GM). For decades, the company turned a deaf ear to customer complaints about shoddy, uncompetitive products, arcane management practices, entitled dealers, and a totally inward looking view of the world that was rapidly globalizing. It was like watching a close friend kill himself through chronic alcoholism.

During this time, Japan?s share of the US car market rose from 1% to 42%. The only surprise when the inevitable bankruptcy came was that it took so long. This was traumatic for me personally, since for the first 30 years of my life General Motors was the largest company in the world. Their elegant headquarters building in Detroit was widely viewed as the high temple of capitalism. I was raised to believe that what was good for GM was good for the country. Oops!

I opposed the bailout because it interfered with creative destruction, something America does better than anyone else, and gives us a huge competitive advantage in the international marketplace. Probably 10% of the listed companies in Japan are zombies that should have been killed off 20 years ago. Without GM a large part of the US car industry would have moved to California and gone hybrid or electric.

When an opportunity arose to spend a few hours with the new CEO, Dan Akerson, I gratefully accepted. After all, he wasn?t responsible for past sins, and I thought I might gain some insights into the new GM. Besides, he was a native of the Golden State and a graduate in nuclear engineering from the Naval Academy at Annapolis and the London School of Economics. How bad could he be?

When I shook hands, I remarked that his lapel pin looked like the hood ornament on my dad?s old car, a Buick or Oldsmobile. He noticeably winced. So to give the guy a break, I asked him about the company?s outlook.

It was the best in the 104-year history of the company. It is now the world?s largest car company, with the biggest market share. The 40-mpg Chevy Cruze is the number one selling sub compact in the US. GM competed in no less than 117 countries, and was a leader in the fastest growing emerging market, China.

I asked how a private equity guy from the Carlyle Group was fitting in on the GM board. He responded that all of the Big Three Detroit automakers were being run by ?non-car guys? now, and they generated profits for the first time in 20 years. However, it was not without its culture clashes. When he publicly admitted that he believed in global warming, he was severely chastised by other board members. He wasn?t following the official playbook.

When I started carping about the bailout, he cut me right off at the knees. Liquidation would have been a deathblow for the Midwestern economy, killing 1 million jobs, and saddling the government with $23 billion in pension fund obligations. It also would have deprived the Treasury Department of $135 billion in annual tax revenues. It was inevitable that in the last election year the company became a political punching bag. Akerson said that he was still a Republican, but just.

GM was now selling 1,000 Chevy Volts a month. The cars are so efficient, running off a 16kWh lithium ion battery charge for the first 25-50 miles that many are still driving around with the original tank of gas they were delivered with a year ago. Extreme crash testing by the government and the bad press that followed forced a relaunch of the brand. Despite this, I often get emails from readers saying they love the car.

The summer production halt says more about GM?s more efficient inventory management than it does about the hybrid car. GM?s recent investment in California based Envia Systems should succeed in increasing battery energy densities threefold (click here for the website http://enviasystems.com/announcement/).

However the Volt is just a bridge technology to the Holy Grail, hydrogen fuel cell powered cars, which will start to go mainstream in four years. These cars burn hydrogen, emit water, and cost about $300,000 a unit to produce now. By 2017, GM hopes to make it available as a $30,000 option for the Chevy Aveo.

Another bridge technology will be natural gas powered conventional piston engines. These take advantage of the new glut of this simple molecule and its 85% price discount per BTU compared to gasoline. The company announced a dual gas tank pickup truck that can use either gasoline or compressed gas. Cheap compressors that enable home gas refueling are also on the horizon. Fleet sales will be the initial target.

Massive overcapacity in Europe will continue to be a huge headache for the global industry. There are just too many carmakers there, with Germany, England, Italy, France, and Sweden each carrying multiple manufacturers. Governments would rather bail them out to save jobs and protect entrenched unions than allow market forces to work their magic. GM lost $700 million on its European operations last year, and Akerson doesn?t see that improving now that the continent is clearly moving into recession.

Akerson said that a cultural change had been crucial in the revival of the new GM. Last year, the Feds announced an increase in mileage standards from 25 to 55 mpg by 2025. Instead of lawyering up for a prolonged fight to dilute or eliminate the new rules, as it might have done in the past, it is working with the appropriate agencies to meet these targets.

Finally, I asked Akerson what went through his head when the top job at GM was offered him at the height of the crisis. Were they crazy, insane, delusional, or all the above? He confessed that it offered him the management challenge of a generation and that he had to rise to it.

Spoken like a true Annapolis man.

 

Shifting GM from This?.

 

To This?.

 

And This

 

GM 2-4-14

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