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Mad Hedge Fund Trader

January 20, 2015 - MDT - Midday Missive

MDT Alert

While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Jim Parker, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points. Read more

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2015-01-20 13:05:492015-01-20 13:05:49January 20, 2015 - MDT - Midday Missive
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

January 20, 2015 - MDT Pro Tips A.M.

MDT Alert

While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Jim Parker, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points. Read more

0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2015-01-20 13:04:292015-01-20 13:04:29January 20, 2015 - MDT Pro Tips A.M.
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Trade Alert - (QCOM) - January 20, 2015

Trade Alert

As a potentially profitable opportunity presents itself, John will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what should be bought, when to buy it, and at what price. This is your chance to ?look over? John Thomas? shoulder as he gives you unparalleled insight on major world financial trends BEFORE they happen. Read more

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/10/slider-05-trader-alert.jpg 316 600 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2015-01-20 10:16:332015-01-20 10:16:33Trade Alert - (QCOM) - January 20, 2015
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

January 20, 2015

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
January 20, 2015
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(THE YEAR OF THE BLACK SWAN),
(FXF), (FXE), (EUO)
(THE PRICE OF STARDOM AT DAVOS),
(WILL GOLD COINS SUFFER THE FATE OF THE $10,000 BILL), (GLD),
(SIGN UP NOW FOR TEXT MESSAGING OF TRADE ALERTS)

CurrencyShares Swiss Franc ETF (FXF)
CurrencyShares Euro ETF (FXE)
ProShares UltraShort Euro (EUO)
SPDR Gold Shares (GLD)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2015-01-20 01:07:032015-01-20 01:07:03January 20, 2015
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

The Year of the Black Swan

Diary, Newsletter, Research

I?ve just spent the entire morning on the phone, and it?s clear that thousands of individuals, hedge funds and brokers have just been wiped out as a result of The Swiss National Bank?s surprise move to remove its cap against the Euro.

This is a black swan on steroids.

And it hasn?t just been Swiss franc positions that have been bedeviling traders. You can add to the list bonds, energy, and this week, financial stocks as well. All of a sudden, the world seems to have gone mad.

The great flaw in the management of big brokers and hedge funds is that they base their risk models on historic data. It is rare to see a foreign currency move more than 1% against the US dollar in a day. You might see that one-day a year.

Risk models, and margin requirements, are therefore based on this assumption. To bomb proof themselves, margin departments might require clients to post collateral assuming that a 2% or even a 3% move in a currency will happen tomorrow.

Even with an ultra conservative 3% margin requirement, a house would only be protected by a move in the underlying of 33%. Any move greater than that, the customer account is completely wiped out, leaving the broker on the hook for the balance of the loss if they can?t get clients to pony up more money.

Of course, US based brokers can always sue their former clients and get their money back that way. But that is a three-year process. Just ask anyone who went through the whole MF Global disaster.

As a former broker myself, I can tell you that clients wiped out by margin calls have a bad habit of disappearing, changing their names and moving to unpronounceable countries to bury the paper trail, or move beyond the reach of extradition treaties. So good luck with that one.

After speaking to several foreign exchange traders, it seems that the first tick after the SNB?s announcement was up a staggering 40% from the last print. The world had stop loss orders to sell Euros as market, and this was the fill they got.

It gets worse. Some brokers, particularly small, undercapitalized foreign ones, were only demanding 0.5% margin or less. These guys are toast, but it may take weeks to find out exactly who.

The news services this morning are ablaze with such losses. Citibank (C) has admitted to a $150 million hickey. Very conservative Interactive Brokers has fessed up to a $120 million hit. FXCM is thought to be out $225 million. All of a sudden, foreign exchange brokers everywhere are for sale at fire sale prices.

These aren?t just some interesting, entertaining and colorful market anecdotes that I?m providing you. The debacle is so severe that it has cast a black cloud over all asset classes.

You see this in the sharply diminished trading volumes in all instruments, from stocks, to options, to futures contracts and exchange traded funds.

If you have just heard of a colleague or a counterparty who has just gone under, trading any of the recent straight line one way moves, guess what? You don?t go out and bet the ranch.

Your risk appetite has been diminished for weeks, if not months. In fact, you may not want to trade at all. This is not good for markets of any description.

I have been through many of these. The best thing to do is to shrink your book, hedge up what?s left, and put your more aggressive tendencies on hold. You may have noticed that the model portfolio for my Trade Alert service has just done exactly that.

Come back only when it?s safe to play, and the markets gets easy again.

FXF 1-16-15

FXE 1-16-15

EUO 1-16-15

John Thoms - Black SwansWatch Out, They Can Bite

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/John-Thoms-Black-Swans-e1413901799656.jpg 337 400 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2015-01-20 01:06:132015-01-20 01:06:13The Year of the Black Swan
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

January 16, 2015 - MDT - Midday Missive

MDT Alert

While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Jim Parker, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points. Read more

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2015-01-16 10:37:282015-01-16 10:37:28January 16, 2015 - MDT - Midday Missive
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

January 16, 2015 - MDT - SPU Follow Up & Adjustment

MDT Alert

While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Jim Parker, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points. Read more

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2015-01-16 10:04:312015-01-16 10:04:31January 16, 2015 - MDT - SPU Follow Up & Adjustment
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

January 16, 2015 - MDT - SPU Follow Up

MDT Alert

While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Jim Parker, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points. Read more

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2015-01-16 09:52:212015-01-16 09:52:21January 16, 2015 - MDT - SPU Follow Up
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

January 16, 2015 - MDT - Spu (EPH) Alert

MDT Alert

While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Jim Parker, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points. Read more

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2015-01-16 09:49:302015-01-16 09:49:30January 16, 2015 - MDT - Spu (EPH) Alert
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

January 16, 2015 - MDT - Goldman Sachs (GS)

MDT Alert

While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Jim Parker, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points. Read more

0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2015-01-16 09:08:262015-01-16 09:08:26January 16, 2015 - MDT - Goldman Sachs (GS)
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Legal Disclaimer

There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. MadHedgeFundTrader.com and all individuals affiliated with this site assume no responsibilities for your trading and investment results. The indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features are for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Information for futures trading observations are obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not warrant its completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the trading observations is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness of the information. You must assess the risk of any trade with your broker and make your own independent decisions regarding any securities mentioned herein. Affiliates of MadHedgeFundTrader.com may have a position or effect transactions in the securities described herein (or options thereon) and/or otherwise employ trading strategies that may be consistent or inconsistent with the provided strategies.

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