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DougD

What?s on Your Plate for This Week?

Diary, Newsletter

The summer doldrums are back!

That is the only conclusion one can draw after observing the market action last week from my mountain lair in Zermatt, Switzerland.

Try as I might, it is impossible to flee this connected world, unless the power is cut off by an avalanche and your batteries die.

As I expected, last week stopped the monster stock market rally in its tracks. Every other asset class behaved accordingly.

Even the most wildly bullish investor has to be deeply concerned about the extreme overbought condition of the market on a short term basis, the incredibly narrow focus of buyers on a handful of names, and the utter lack of volume.

The bears have to be worried abut the failure of the of the market to selloff last week in the face if such sky high valuation parameters.

The S&P 500 (SPY) begrudgingly gave up a few points. Ten year Treasury bonds (TLT) suffered a much more serious seven-point hickey. Oil (USO) dove. Gold (GLD) flat lined. The Japanese Yen (FXY) churned.

But what else would you expect with someone like Donald Trump sucking all the oxygen out of the room?

And here?s the bad news. Next week, another political party will repeat the feat. Financial markets will react accordingly.

In other words, they won?t react at all.

We might get some nice month end mark ups on Friday to assure managers have some decent performance numbers to report.

That?s if anyone is around to notice.

This is definitely the week of the ?B? Team, with senior decision makers on risk and asset allocations more likely to be found in Southampton, New York, Newport Beach, California, or Cannes, France.

It?s not like they?ll be missing anything, as this coming week is relatively devoid of significant economic data, except for one big one.

At 10:30 AM EST on Monday, July 25, we get a peak of how seriously the oil collapse is affecting the rest of the Texan economy with the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey.

I?m looking for continued weakness, as shocks of this magnitude, like the oil crash, take years to work themselves out.

On Tuesday, July 26 at 9:00 AM Eastern the S&P 500 Case Shiller Home Price Index should deliver a housing market going from strength to strength.

As this is a three-month lagging indicator, the benefits of the ultra-low interest rates brought to us by Brexit won?t be apparent for another few months.

The big event of the week will be the Federal Open Market Committee decision on overnight interest rates, out at 2:00 PM EST on Wednesday, July 27.

Any action, other than a change of a word or two in their public statement, is highly unlikely. This cautious group of people is highly focused on the negative economic impact of Brexit and a strong dollar that are still unfolding.

Thursday, July 28, will be dominated by the Weekly Jobless Claims at 8:30 EST. It is unlikely that we will see a break down to a new 43-year low during the traditional summer slowdown.

Friday, July 29 at 8:30 AM brings us another look at Q2 Real GDP. These pre-Brexit estimates should continue to deliver a clear uptrend.

The bottom line here is that we should be setting up for a 4% correction in stocks in August.

If that happens, surely load the boat with risk, as we are headed for higher highs in everything going into the presidential election and the yearend.

SPY TLT USO GLD FXY

John with Horn

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/John-with-Horn-e1468781213330.jpg 299 400 DougD https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png DougD2016-07-25 01:08:132016-07-25 01:08:13What?s on Your Plate for This Week?
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

July 25, 2016 - Quote of the Day

Diary, Newsletter, Quote of the Day

?The fundamental argument against gold is so fundamentally one-sided that it is almost comical,? said options trader, Jim Iuorio, of TJM Institutional Services.

Clown

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/Clown.jpg 331 252 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2016-07-25 01:05:372016-07-25 01:05:37July 25, 2016 - Quote of the Day
DougD

July 22, 2016 - MDT Pro Tips A.M.

MDT Alert

While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points. Read more

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 DougD https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png DougD2016-07-22 09:13:192016-07-22 09:13:19July 22, 2016 - MDT Pro Tips A.M.
DougD

July 22, 2016

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
July 22, 2016
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(LAST CHANCE TO ATTEND THE JULY 27 BASEL, SWITZERLAND GLOBAL STRATEGY LUNCHEON),
(THE VOLATILITY BOTTOM IS IN),
(VIX), (VXX), (XIV), (SVXY),
(REPORT FROM THE ORIENT EXPRESS)

^VIX VOLATILITY S&P 500
VXX iPath S&P 500 VIX ST Futures ETN
XIV VelocityShares Daily Inverse VIX ST ETN
SVXY ProShares Short VIX Short-Term Futures

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 DougD https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png DougD2016-07-22 01:09:362016-07-22 01:09:36July 22, 2016
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Report from The Orient Express

Diary, Newsletter

I was awoken from a dead sleep in the middle of the night in my suite on the Orient Express by a juddering halt and the smell of burning brakes in the air.

We were somewhere high in the Swiss Alps, and every single passenger on the first class only train had to be thinking that a murder had just been discovered.

It turned out that in the darkness we had hit a 400-pound wild boar astride the tracks. We spent four hours on a remote siding waiting for Swiss National Rail to deliver us a new engine.

I elicited chuckles when I ordered boar for lunch the next day. The ma?tre d? assured me it wasn?t ready yet, as the meat had to soak in vinegar for 48 hours before cooking.

That's the kind of thing you only hear in Europe.

I boarded the train that morning at London?s Victoria station in anticipation of the trip of a lifetime.

Venice Simplon Orient Express didn?t disappoint, although I would not be surprised if the IRS questioned the $8,500 cost for the 34-hour trip as a business expense on my tax return this year.

The legendary train has been featured in a dozen films (James Bond and Agatha Christie), two dozen television shows, and played a major part in countless novels. You can even buy the video game.

The modern Orient Express is in fact three different trains.

From Victoria Station in London to Folkestone on the coast, I traveled on a vintage British train that was definitely showing its age.

Then I boarded a bus, which drove on to a flatbed rail car that whisked us through the tunnel under the English Channel.

There, we claustrophobes closed our eyes and held our breath for 20 minutes, which at the nadir my altimeter watch showed us at 1,500 feet below sea level.

The real luxury started when I boarded a vintage 1924 Pullman first class sleeping car in Calais, France, lovingly restored to the day it was built.

I set my watch ahead one hour and back 92 years. Suddenly, the trees resembled those in impressionist paintings, the land was dotted with Norman fortresses, and gasoline was $8 a gallon.

Orient Express

The original Orient Express, from Paris to Istanbul, made its inaugural journey in 1882, and quickly became famous for its unheard of luxury and speed. Modern bullet trains and cut-rate airlines put it out of business 100 years later.

The current incarnation started in 1977 when James Sherwood, who had built up a fortune through Sea-Land Containers, bought three dilapidated Pullman rail cars at an auction in Monte Carlo.

Like all of us with insanely expensive hobbies, he sought a way for outsiders to fund his passion.

Hence, the Venice-Simplon Orient Express started luring big spenders and the romantically inclined in 1982 (click here for their site http://www.orient-express.com/web/vsoe/venice_simplon_orient_express.jsp).

I became one of the original passengers in England when my broker chartered it for a day of client entertainment, an ancient steam engine laboring all the way.

Orient Express - Club Car

Over the next 30 years, Sherwood built Orient Express into one of the world?s preeminent luxury brands, on par with Cartier, Tiffany, and Chanel.

He developed a massive global network of cross marketing deals that tied in package tours, hotels, cruises, and other vintage trains.

Today, the parent company, Orient Express Hotels (OEH) carries a market cap of $1.15 billion (click here for that site http://www.orient-express.com/).

Ironically, the company today still only owns one of it's dozens of rail cars. The rest have been sold to Middle Eastern investors with long-term leaseback contracts.

The dinner onboard is the highlight of the trip, a fabulous six course, three hour affair. There you meet the other passengers, all dressed to the nines.

Most were wealthy elderly couples knocking off a bucket list item, along with a few young hedge fund managers and a passel of mistresses.

I was one of the few Americans. I ate with a casino operator in Ireland and the owner of a manufacturing company in the UK. All I can say is thank goodness for the elastic waist on my tux trousers.

Having spent a lifetime analyzing corporate managements, I was fascinated by the operation of the train.

While the onboard staff is limited to 79, they are supported by a management, marketing, and engineering team of no less than 4,500.

You don?t just show up with a 17-car train in Europe?s incredibly congested rail network. You must first file a route plan and get a clearance slot, much like any airline.

Engines and crews must be changed at every border. Mechanics are onboard with an ample stockpile of 1920?s rail car parts.

Oblivious passengers are frequently left stranded behind at stations along the way and must be retrieved by taxis, which catch the train down the line.

Orient Express - Private Room

To make up the time we lost due to the unlucky boar, the rail authorities routed us though the 12 mile long transalpine tunnel under Spl?gen Pass, then along the sublime shores of Lake Como, where the train rarely travels.

We roared past George Clooney?s house, who, I am told, is a frequent passenger on the train.

Amazed Italians were waving and taking pictures of us with their cell phones at every stop.

Suddenly the buildings were all shaded in pastels, the churches changed from Protestant to Catholic, and the trees resembled those in Renaissance religious paintings.

We raced over the causeway to Venice?s Marco Polo station that evening, dumping our considerable luggage into a private speedboat which whisked us away down a Grand Canal crowded with gondolas, en route to the fabled Cipriani Hotel.

To be continued.

Venice
BEL

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/07/Orient-Express.jpg 342 462 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2016-07-22 01:06:522016-07-22 01:06:52Report from The Orient Express
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

July 22, 2016 - Quote of the Day

Diary, Newsletter, Quote of the Day

?To get rich is glorious!? said Deng Xiaoping, the Chinese general who launched the country?s modern economy in the seventies.

Deng Xiaoping

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/07/Deng-Xiaoping.jpg 309 249 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2016-07-22 01:05:192016-07-22 01:05:19July 22, 2016 - Quote of the Day
DougD

July 21, 2016 - MDT Pro Tips A.M.

MDT Alert

While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points. Read more

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 DougD https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png DougD2016-07-21 09:20:352016-07-21 09:20:35July 21, 2016 - MDT Pro Tips A.M.
DougD

July 21, 2016

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
July 21, 2016
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(TUESDAY, JULY 26 BADEN-BADEN, GERMANY GLOBAL STRATEGY LUNCHEON),
(WATCH OUT FOR THE AUGUST STOCK MARKET CORRECTION),
(SPY), (TLT), (GLD), (SLV), (GGP), (AMLP), (UUP),
(THE BLOCKBUSTER READ IN THE HEDGE FUND COMMUNITY)

SPY SPDR S&P 500 ETF
TLT iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond
GLD SPDR Gold Shares
SLV iShares Silver Trust
GGP General Growth Properties, Inc
AMLP Alerian MLP ETF
UUP PowerShares DB US Dollar Bullish ETF

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 DougD https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png DougD2016-07-21 01:09:502016-07-21 01:09:50July 21, 2016
DougD

Tuesday, July 26 Baden-Baden, Germany Global Strategy Luncheon

Diary, Newsletter

Urgent business with the German government requires me to be in the Fatherland for an extra day.

It seems that someone high up wants to know about the long-term economic impact of Brexit (terrible), the possibility of avoiding it (excellent), and what to do with one million refugees.?

Apparently, no one else but me can put all of this in the 50 year global context they require.

That is a windfall for my readers in the southern part of Germany, who will find me in their fair city for a few hours.

So come join me for lunch for the Mad Hedge Fund Trader?s Global Strategy luncheon, which I will be conducting in Baden-Baden, Germany on Tuesday, July 26, 2016.

A three-course lunch will be followed by an extended question and answer period.

I?ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, foreign currencies, commodities, precious metals, and real estate.

And to keep you in suspense, I?ll be tossing a few surprises out there too. Enough charts, tables, graphs, and statistics will be thrown at you to keep your ears ringing for a week. Tickets are available for $267.

I?ll be arriving at 11:30 AM and leaving late in case anyone wants to have a one-on-one discussion, or just sit around and chew the fat about the financial markets.

The lunch will be held at an exclusive five star hotel in the downtown area of the city, the location of which will be emailed with your purchase confirmation.

I look forward to meeting you, and thank you for supporting my research.

To purchase tickets for the luncheons, please click here.

Baden-Baden

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/Baden-Baden-e1469044811270.jpg 268 400 DougD https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png DougD2016-07-21 01:08:362016-07-21 01:08:36Tuesday, July 26 Baden-Baden, Germany Global Strategy Luncheon
DougD

Watch Out for the August Stock Market Correction

Diary, Newsletter

I have a prediction to make.

When Donald Trump takes the podium to accept the Republican nomination for the presidency this week, he will not talk about how much money he has made in the stock market over the past seven years.

Nor will he mention how the value of his real estate portfolio has doubled. Completely missing will be mention of a 4.9% unemployment rate, weekly jobless claims at a 43-year low, and corporate profits at an all time high.

What we WILL hear about is the terrible state of the US economy, a coming Great Depression, and an imminent stock market crash that will make the 2008-2009 disaster look like child?s play.

I know he will take this line because he has said it many, many times before.

Needless to say, this is NOT a positive message for the stock market.

Normally, I wouldn?t care about market predictions from an aspiring political candidate. We already know it?s all about bluff, bluster, and empty promises.

However, these are not normal times.

US stocks are now more overbought than any time in their history.

Price earnings multiples at 20X in a 2% a year growth economy is unheard of. The geopolitical backdrop is worsening, with black swans arriving weekly.

And Brexit? Has anyone heard of Brexit?

Usually, this would be enough to cause me to don my helmet and hide out in a deep bombproof desert bunker with a year?s supply of food, water, and ammo.

But it gets worse.

The frenetic rally in stocks we have seen since the post Brexit low six weeks ago, has been of the lowest quality I have ever seen.

It has occurred with steadily falling volume. There has been almost no individual or institutional participation.

It has been all about companies buying back their own stock, and hedge funds covering losing shorts on stop loss orders.

Here is the great irony in what is going on in all asset classes globally.

Central banks are flooding the world with money in order to stimulate economic growth. This was partly spurred by the surprise Brexit. But the rot was already well advanced everywhere.

This has driven interest rates to absurdly low levels. Eventually, this will stimulate economies, as it successfully did in the US from 2009 to 2014.

However, the immediate impact will be to drive up the price of ALL financial assets.

This is why you have seen the unheard of occurrence of simultaneous highs in stocks (SPY), bonds (TLT), precious metals (GLD), REIT?s (GGP), Master Limited Partnerships (AMLP), and the US dollar (UUP).

I know this is supposed to be impossible according to your economic textbooks. But it is happening.

For the mathematicians out there, let me tell you how insane things have gotten in the stock market.

With the Dow Average up NINE CONSECUTIVE DAYS, we are approaching a three standard deviation move in prices.

Usually, you only see moves of this magnitude in sudden gaps DOWN.

You saw this in the two day, $1000 point drop that followed Brexit, the 10% melt down in January triggered by weak Chinese economic data, and the August, 2015 $1,100 point flash crash.

To see three standard deviations on a move UP is a once in a lifetime event. The last time I saw one was in 1989 at the end of the great Japanese bull market.

But wait! There?s more!

The S&P 500 is now 7.67% above its 50-day moving average, an occurrence as scarce as hens? teeth. You almost have to be as old as me to remember how often this happens.

The narrowness of this rally is almost unprecedented. My technical friends have been jumping up and down screaming that only 28 of the S&P 500 are at all time highs, and a mere 78 are in clear uptrends.

To see so much buying focused on so few shares is unnerving, to say the least.

All of the above is why I have sold short the S&P 500.

Mind you, this is not the time to bet the ranch. I have put on a position that is as conservative as possible, namely the (SPY) August $221-$224 vertical bull put spread.

I have gone front month, deep in the money, and small in size. The (SPY) has to rise another 1.8% on top of an already incredible 9.60% move for me to lose money on this position. And it has to accomplish this feat in a short 17 days.

If the stock market continues to appreciate, I?ll just roll the position up and double the size.

Here are two downside levels that are key to any retracement:

$2,135 ? is the previous high for the S&P 500 that certainly bears retesting. If it holds, we are going to even higher highs. If it doesn?t, new allocations to equities are put on hold.

$2,080 ? Is the next level of support. If it holds, we will set up a new trading range from $2,080 to $2,170 for the foreseeable future. If this one fails, the market will give back its entire July rally and take us back to the Brexit low of $1,980.

In either of these cases the existing (SPY) short position earns the maximum potential profit of 18.2%. It?s better than a poke in the eye with a sharp stick.

Anyone who is aware of the above might want to join me in my desert bunker.

If you send me a nice email, I?ll save you a place. Just bring your own M-16.

SPY TLT GLD FXY
Man Being Gored by Bull

Runaway Bulls Can Be Dangerous

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/Man-Being-Gored-by-Bull-e1469043880583.jpg 261 400 DougD https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png DougD2016-07-21 01:07:362016-07-21 01:07:36Watch Out for the August Stock Market Correction
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There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. MadHedgeFundTrader.com and all individuals affiliated with this site assume no responsibilities for your trading and investment results. The indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features are for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Information for futures trading observations are obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not warrant its completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the trading observations is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness of the information. You must assess the risk of any trade with your broker and make your own independent decisions regarding any securities mentioned herein. Affiliates of MadHedgeFundTrader.com may have a position or effect transactions in the securities described herein (or options thereon) and/or otherwise employ trading strategies that may be consistent or inconsistent with the provided strategies.

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