While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points. Read more
Global Market Comments
March 14, 2016
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(APRIL 25 CHICAGO GLOBAL STRATEGY LUNCHEON),
(CATCHING UP WITH WARREN BUFFET),
(BRKA), (AXP), (CCE), (IBM), (WFC), (BAC),
(THE GREAT SOCIAL SECURITY MARRIAGE BENEFIT YOU?VE NEVER HEARD OF)
Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (BRK-A)
American Express Company (AXP)
Coca-Cola Enterprises, Inc. (CCE)
International Business Machines Corporation (IBM)
Wells Fargo & Company (WFC)
Bank of America Corporation (BAC)
One of my favorite research pieces to read every year is Warren Buffet?s annual letter to the shareholders of Berkshire Hathaway (BRK/A),his gigantic holding company.
Not only does it paint an excellent broad-brush picture of the US economy, it is also witty, funny, and downright educational, even for old farts such as myself.
Warren and his long time partner Charlie Munger own such a big chunk of the US economy, about 3%, employing a staggering 361,270 individuals world wide, that he has a truly unique 50,000-foot view of what is happening.
For example, his BNSF railroad took it on the nose with the collapse of the US coal industry, but made it back with the rise of rail oil shipments.
Driverless cars promise to have a huge and negative impact on the insurance industry and car dealerships. Traditional print publications continued to be devoured by the Internet. Warren sees it all before anyone else.
Warning: Buffet doesn?t do technology, a sector that he has never understood, and which largely doesn?t pay dividends. Warren is definitely an old economy guy.
Buffet has also been reading my Diary of A Mad Hedge Fund Trader since its inception eight years ago.
He likes to tell his investors that he got the idea to take a 5% stake in Bank of America (BAC) while reading research in the? bathtub. What he DOESN?T tell them is that he was reading MY research in his bathtub.
My followers earned a 400% profit over a single weekend on (BAC) call options on that trade.
Berkshire Hathaway shares suffered an uncommonly difficult year in 2015, shedding some 1.2%, even though the book value per share rose by 6.4%. Over the past 51 years, the shares have rocketed from $19 to $155,501, a 19.2% return compounded annually.
It has been a performance for the ages.
Dad! Where were you?
Buffet starts out by listing his highlights for the year.
He invested $5.8 billion to improve the service of his BNSF railroad, which carries 17% of America?s rail cargo. It was one of the largest single capital investments in US history, and will bring substantially greater profits in years to come.
BNSF, along with Berkshire Hathaway Energy (power utilities), Marmon (manufacturing), Lubrizol (chemicals), and IMC (tools) were his five most profitable investments, seeing profits rise by $650 million to $13.1 billion.
In 2016, they will be joined by a sixth powerhouse, Precision Castparts (aircraft parts), which he picked up recently for a cool $32 billion.
Berkshire?s four largest holdings are in American Express (AXP), Coca-Cola (CCE), IBM (IBM), and Wells Fargo (WFC). In addition, he owns call options which can be exercised into a major position of Bank of America (BAC).
Buffet?s approach here is to take minority stakes in great business with steady earnings streams, rather than 100% ownership in so-so business. He then leaves them alone and lets them work their magic. Cash flow is king.
All of these companies consistently buy back their own shares, increasing the portion of profits paid to Berkshire.
Long time followers of Buffet are well aware of his love affair with the insurance industry. The ?float? or the premiums received and held in reserve against future claims, amounts to $87.7 billion and finance the rest of his operations.
GEICO, which Warren has been in and out of several times over the decades, has a gecko that appears to be everywhere.
Despite the rise of global warming, claims from natural disasters are actually falling, which is great for profits.
In the rest of his letter, Buffet delves into the esoterica of industries he owns as diverse as manufactured homes, rail car leasing, furniture, and running shoes.
All in all, it is a tour-de-force of US industry. I highly recommend it.
In fact, it you don?t mind the volatility you might pick up a share of (BRKA), that is, if you can afford today?s $211,115 price tag.
To read that last 51 years of Buffet?s letters, please click here at http://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/letters.html.
The telltale signs were suddenly everywhere.
The American Association of Retired Persons (AARP) membership cards appeared, unsolicited, in the mail.? People have started giving up their seat to me whenever I ride BART, especially when I need a haircut.
And recently, I have found those never ending TV ads about drugs dealing with arthritis, Alzheimers and erectile dysfunction utterly fascinating.
There is no denying the calendar. Soon, I will be reaching the US retirement age of 65.
For much of my life, retirement was the furthest thing from my mind, given the way I lived it. In fact, many of my friends and family doubted that I would ever make it past 30, when I published my first book.
My life passed before my eyes during multiple mountain climbing accidents in the High Sierras, the Alps, and the Himalayas. Damn those used ropes!
The Vietnamese had their shot when I caught a landmine in Cambodia. Thanks to them, I still set off metal detectors (especially the one at the United Nations in Geneva, Switzerland).
The assorted tropical diseases I did catch there probably will take decades off my life. Doctors still find my X-rays puzzling.
I certainly thought I had bought the farm while crashing a variety of planes in Paris, Austria and Sicily.
Saddam Hussein had his go when his troops riddled my plane with bullet holes over Kuwait in 1991. It?s a good thing that I crash aircraft better than anyone I know. That?s important, because they don?t let you practice crashing during flight school.
But somehow the Purple Heart I earned doesn?t seem worth it when my heavy backpack reminds me that I?m missing a lower disc. Thank goodness for hot baths and Advil!
Then there was that time last winter at 12,000 feet in the High Sierras when I got caught in the dark, a ferocious blizzard with 80 mile per hour gusts and 10 degree temperatures.
My GPS froze, so I had to navigate my way back down the mountain with infrequent tree blazes and an old fashioned WWII army compass.
I over estimated the effectiveness of my new snow shoes and underestimated my ability to wade through four feet of fresh powder. In the end I was so exhausted that had to fall down the last slope to get to my car.
Then I discovered that my keys were also frozen and I couldn?t get in the car. After sitting on them for 15 minutes, the parking lights suddenly blinked and I barely made it out alive.
But I digress.
Given the approach of The Big Number, I thought it was time to call my accountant.
I love my accountant. For most of my working life he made sure I never paid a tax rate over 14.9%, taking advantage of the ?carried interest? treatment afforded fortunate and well-connected hedge fund managers.
It was only when I got into the newsletter business eight years ago that I had to pay the full ticket 39.5% rate the rest of the masses get stuck with. However, he keeps magically coming up with tax goodies for me.
I got $10,000 worth of tax gifts when I bought my all-electric Tesla Model S-1.
And this year?s tax return promises to deliver a double windfall from my new solar roof panel system. That includes a 30% alternative energy investment tax credit and full deductibility of the interest on the loan used to pay for it (which will be the subject of a future research piece).
And despite many government attempts to do so, he has successful kept me out of jail. Besides, locking me up in a Federal facility would be unkind to the other inmates, not to mention the poor guards.
My accountant has even promised to snow shoe with me in the High Sierras this winter. I'm still waiting.
But now I?m rambling.
So I asked my accountant how best to game the Social Security System once I am eligible. I have done much for the United States government, it would be nice if I got a little something back.
He asked me if I was married. I answered that I wasn?t, but that I could be. What?s it worth to me?
It was then that he told me about the Great Social Security Marriage Loophole.
It is this simple.
I actually qualified for retirement when I was 62. But if I had done so, I would have received discounted benefits. I will qualify for full retirement benefits at 66 1/2.
Since I have paid in my maximum Social Security taxes for my entire life, I will be eligible to receive $24,000 a year, or $2,000 a month. However, if I delay my retirement until 70 1/2, my benefits will increase by 32% to $31,680 a year.
Here comes the good part.
I can retire now, and then immediately ?file and suspend? my benefits. This is a simple one page form anyone can complete on the IRS.gov website.
That will allow me to suspend receiving my benefits, enabling them to continue to increase to the $31,680 maximum over the next five years.
Since I don?t need the money anyway, and $2,000 a month barely buys you a cup of coffee at Starbucks in the San Francisco Bay area, it was a no-brainer.
In the meantime, my ?wife? can apply for her own benefits and receive 50% of the value my benefits immediately, while my own suspended benefits continue to grow.
Not many people know about this benefit. In fact, The Great Social Security Marriage Loophole is one of the best-kept secrets of the entire Social Security system.
So, I asked my accountant how old my future ?wife? had to be to be before she could retire and claim the marriage benefit freebie. He said 62.
I said ?Sorry, that wouldn?t work for me.? For a spouse to keep up with me at 12,000 feet in a blinding snowstorm, she would have to be at least ten or twenty years younger than me.
By the time she retired, I would be 72 or 82, the suspense period long having since expired.
Anyway, I find the prospect of getting married again is somewhat daunting. And as you can well imagine, the pool of 42-52 year old women willing to subject themselves to flying lead, tropical diseases, plane crashes and permanent jet lag is somewhat limited.
You see, I?m not an easy person to be around.
Did he have any other ideas?
He did mention that I could apply for my Medicare benefits three months before I turn 65. If I applied for benefits more than six months after I turn 65, I could be subject to hefty penalties.
Go figure.
Yes, you might conclude that only a complete maniac could live a lifestyle like this and get away with it, and my mother would agree with you.
But how else could I make a piece about obscure Social Security rules interesting?
In Search of the Lost Benefit
Come join me for lunch at the Mad Hedge Fund Trader?s Global Strategy Luncheon, which we will be conducting in New York, NY on Friday, April 22, 2016.
An excellent three course lunch will be provided. A wide ranging discussion will be followed by an extended question and answer period.
I?ll be giving you my up to date view on stocks, bonds, foreign currencies, commodities, precious metals, and real estate. And to keep you in suspense, I?ll be throwing a few surprises out there too.
Enough charts, tables, graphs, and statistics will be thrown at you to keep your ears ringing for a week. Tickets are available for $249.
The formal luncheon will run from 12:00 to 2:00 PM. I?ll be arriving 30 minutes early and leaving late in case anyone wants to have a one on one discussion, or just sit around and chew the fat about the financial markets.
The event will be held at a prestigious private club on Central Park South, the details of which will be emailed to you with your purchase confirmation.
I look forward to meeting you, and thank you for supporting my research.
While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points. Read more
Global Market Comments
March 11, 2016
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(APRIL 22 NEW YORK GLOBAL STRATEGY LUNCHEON),
(SUPER MARIO DELIVERS . . . AND THEN HE DOESN?T),
(FXE), (EUO), (SPY), (IWM),
(MARCH 16 GLOBAL STRATEGY WEBINAR)
CurrencyShares Euro ETF (FXE)
ProShares UltraShort Euro (EUO)
SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
iShares Russell 2000 (IWM)
Well that went over like a lead balloon!
European Central Bank (ECB) president Mario Draghi bet the ranch that an aggressive round of quantitative easing would crash the Euro (FXE), (EUO) against the dollar and rescue the continental economy.
He certainly didn?t pull any punches. We didn?t just get one bazooka, we got three.
In a press conference that had the world waiting on pins and needles, the wily Italian announced that deposit interest rates would get cut from negative 0.3% to negative 0.4%. Nope, that?s not a typo.
Central bank bond buying will be ratcheted up from ?60 to ?80 billion a month. Furthermore, the planned life of European QE was extended to April 2017.
And what did the beleaguered continental currency do? After gapping down to the bottom of a multi month trading range, it carried out its large move UP in history, with the (FXE) soaring from $106.10 to $109.70.
Go figure.
Mario Draghi must be tearing his hair out. All of his efforts towards monetary control had the exact opposite of the desired effect.
My European summer vacation just got more expensive.
Some forex participants pointed to Draghi?s ill-advised statement that ?We don?t anticipate it will be necessary to further reduce rates.?
Thanks to my three years of Italian, I can tell you what he really said. ?This is all you?re getting baby. You ain?t getting any more stinking QE.?
A slap across the face with a wet kipper would have been more welcome. So was the crash of the Hindenburg. Thank goodness I only trade foreign exchange part time for laughs.
The stock market didn?t have to be told twice what to do. With volatility that is now becoming all too familiar, it performed a perfect $309 Dow point swan dive.
Of course, I saw all this coming a mile off (I didn?t really), going into the announcement with a quadruple short position in stocks with the S&P 500 (SPY) and the Russell 2000 (IWM).
I though Mr. Mario would disappoint with no new QE whatsoever, thus crashing the markets.
Hey, I?ll take a (SPY) $3.69 move in my favor anyway I can get it. Certainly my many new followers appreciate it.
I stopped at the bank this afternoon to get some cash. The branch manager knew I was an international financial wizard in addition to being the most interesting man in the world, so she asked me how negative interest rates work.
I explained that if you deposit $1 million with a bank at a negative 0.4% interest rate, a year later your deposit would be worth only $996,000.
?Really?? she asked.
?Really,? I answered.
I think the message here is that our lives as traders are going to continue dull, mean, and brutish for the foreseeable future, at least until the second half of the year.
The only way to make money is to trade devoid of the thought process.
If its up, sell it. If it?s down, buy it. Over think things, and you will find yourself in a world of sushi.
Mr. Mario Strikes Again
As a potentially profitable opportunity presents itself, John will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what should be bought, when to buy it, and at what price. Read more
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