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Mad Hedge Fund Trader

January 29, 2016 - Quote of the Day

Diary, Newsletter, Quote of the Day

?The stupid market clich? about catching a falling knife is actually happening now. This is a falling knife. You have to look at the market as a hot air balloon. You only want to grab it as it is going up. I don?t think dollar cost averaging is the plan here,? said Bob Iaccino at Traderoutlook.com.

Financials Knife in Hand

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Mad Hedge Fund Trader

January 28, 2016 - MDT Pro Tips A.M.

MDT Alert

While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points. Read more

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2016-01-28 09:30:452016-01-28 09:30:45January 28, 2016 - MDT Pro Tips A.M.
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

January 28, 2016

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
January 28, 2016
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(WHY THE REAL ESTATE BOOM HAS A DECADE TO RUN),
(DHI), (LEN), (PHM),
(THE TECHNICAL/FUNDAMENTAL TUG OF WAR: WHO WILL WIN?)

DR Horton Inc. (DHI)
Lennar Corporation (LEN)
PulteGroup, Inc. (PHM)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2016-01-28 01:08:162016-01-28 01:08:16January 28, 2016
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Why the Real Estate Boom Has a Decade to Run

Diary, Newsletter

Real estate brokers are still reeling from the news that December existing home sales rocketed by a blockbuster 14.7%, to an annualized 5.46 million units.

And now I hear that Apple (AAPL) is planning on building a second new research and development campus that will need 20,000 new high tech workers. The housing crisis here in the San Francisco Bay area just went from bad to worse.

It is all fresh fuel for a continuation in the bull market for US residential real estate, not just for this year, but for another decade.

Friends in the industry tell me the eye popping numbers were due to the implementation of the TILA-RESPA Integrated Disclosure (TRID) in October.

Dubbed the ?Know before you owe? requirement, TRID is the inevitable outcome of the 2008 subprime housing crash.

If you weren?t born yet in 2008, or were living in a cave on a remote Pacific island back then, go watch the movie ?The Big Short? for a further explanation of those dark days.

As a result, real estate closings now take at least a week longer, and sometimes more, thanks to a new requirement for several three day ?cooling off periods.?

When the new law kicked in, TRID nearly brought he industry to a halt, and firms were sent scurrying to their attorneys to draw up the new disclosure forms to stay within the law.

TRID undoubtedly was responsible for the slowdown in the market in the run up to December.

Although prices seem high now, I am convinced that we are only at the beginning of a long term secular bull market in housing. Anything you purchase now is going to make you look like a genius ten years down the road.

The best is yet to come.

The big driver will be demographics, of course.

From 2022 onward, 65 million Gen Xer?s will be joined by 85 million late blooming Millennials in bidding wars for the same houses. That will create a market of 150 million buyers, unprecedented in the history of the American real estate market.

In the meantime, 80 million baby boomers, net sellers and downsizers of homes for the past decade, will slowly die off and disappear from the scene as a negative influence. Only one third are still working.

The first boomer, Kathleen Casey-Kirschling, born seconds after midnight on January 1, 1946, will become 76 years old by then. A former school teacher, she took early retirement at 62.

The real fat on the fire here is that 5 million homes went missing in action this decade, thanks to the financial crisis. They were never built.

This is the result of the bankruptcy of several homebuilders, and the new found ultra conservatism of the survivors, like DR Horton (DHI), Lennar Homes (LEN), and Pulte Group (PHM).

Did I mention that all of this makes this sector a screaming ?BUY?, once the market moves into ?RISK ON? mode later in the year?

Talk to any real estate agent and they will complain about the shortage of inventory (except in Chicago, the slowest growing market in the country).

Prices are so high already that flippers have been squeezed out of the market for good. Bottom feeders, like hedge funds buying at the bankruptcy auctions, are a distant memory. Some now own more than 20,000 homes.

Income taxes are certain to rise in coming years, and the generous deductions allowed homeowners are looking more attractive by the day.

And let?s face it, ultra low interest rates aren?t going to be here forever. Borrow at 3% today against a long term 3% inflation rate, and you are essentially getting you house for free.

The rising rents that are turning Millennials from renters to buyers may be the first sign of real inflation beyond the increasingly dear health care and higher education that we're are already seeing.

And Millennials are having kids that demand a bigger living space! Who knew?

I may become a grandfather yet!

DHI 1-27-16

PHM 1-27-16

LEN 1-27-16

Home-HouseLooks Like a ?BUY? to Me

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/Home-House1-e1453928682856.jpg 300 400 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2016-01-28 01:07:442016-01-28 01:07:44Why the Real Estate Boom Has a Decade to Run
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

January 28, 2016 - Quote of the day

Diary, Newsletter, Quote of the Day

?Almost all asset markets are bubbles and mispriced,? said Bill Gross of bond giant PIMCO.

Kids - Bubbles

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/Kids-Bubbles.jpg 283 426 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2016-01-28 01:05:532016-01-28 01:05:53January 28, 2016 - Quote of the day
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Trade Alert - (SPY) January 27, 2016

Trade Alert

As a potentially profitable opportunity presents itself, John will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what should be bought, when to buy it, and at what price. Read more

0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2016-01-27 15:38:482016-01-27 15:38:48Trade Alert - (SPY) January 27, 2016
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Trade Alert - (SPY) January 27, 2016

Trade Alert

As a potentially profitable opportunity presents itself, John will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what should be bought, when to buy it, and at what price. This is your chance to ?look over? John Thomas? shoulder as he gives you unparalleled insight on major world financial trends BEFORE they happen. Read more

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/10/slider-05-trader-alert.jpg 316 600 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2016-01-27 12:49:442016-01-27 12:49:44Trade Alert - (SPY) January 27, 2016
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Trade Alert - (GLD) January 27, 2016

Trade Alert

As a potentially profitable opportunity presents itself, John will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what should be bought, when to buy it, and at what price. Read more

0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2016-01-27 11:13:112016-01-27 11:13:11Trade Alert - (GLD) January 27, 2016
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

January 27, 2016 - MDT Pro Tips A.M.

MDT Alert

While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points. Read more

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2016-01-27 09:52:522016-01-27 09:52:52January 27, 2016 - MDT Pro Tips A.M.
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

January 27, 2016

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
January 27, 2016
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(2015 TRADE ALERT REVIEW),
(AAPL), (GILD), (GS), (PANW), (IWM), (SPY),
(GLD), (TLT), (LINE), (VIX), (XIV),
(SIGN UP NOW FOR TEXT MESSAGING OF TRADE ALERTS)

Apple Inc. (AAPL)
Gilead Sciences Inc. (GILD)
The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (GS)
Palo Alto Networks, Inc. (PANW)
iShares Russell 2000 (IWM)
SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
SPDR Gold Shares (GLD)
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT)
Linn Energy, LLC (LINE)
VOLATILITY S&P 500 (^VIX)
VelocityShares Daily Inverse VIX ST ETN (XIV)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2016-01-27 01:08:332016-01-27 01:08:33January 27, 2016
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There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. MadHedgeFundTrader.com and all individuals affiliated with this site assume no responsibilities for your trading and investment results. The indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features are for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Information for futures trading observations are obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not warrant its completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the trading observations is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness of the information. You must assess the risk of any trade with your broker and make your own independent decisions regarding any securities mentioned herein. Affiliates of MadHedgeFundTrader.com may have a position or effect transactions in the securities described herein (or options thereon) and/or otherwise employ trading strategies that may be consistent or inconsistent with the provided strategies.

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