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DougD

November 21, 2016 - Pro Tips A.M.

MDT Alert

While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points. Read more

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 DougD https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png DougD2016-11-21 09:20:452016-11-21 09:20:45November 21, 2016 - Pro Tips A.M.
DougD

November 21, 2016

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
November 21, 2016
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(MARKET OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK OF NOVEMBER 21ST),
(AMZN), (FB), (TLT), (SPY),
(SIGN UP NOW FOR OUR FREE TEXT SERVICE FOR TRADE ALERTS)

Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)
Facebook, Inc. (FB)
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT)
SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 DougD https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png DougD2016-11-21 01:08:482016-11-21 01:08:48November 21, 2016
DougD

Market Outlook for the Week of November 21st

Diary, Newsletter

Being the armchair general that I am, I think the markets are now in a situation similar to the 1939-40 ?Phony War? between Germany, Britain, and France (or ?Sitzkrieg? in German).

War was declared on September 3, 1940, but no actual fighting took place. Each side maneuvered troops, but not a shot was fired. The British dropped propaganda leaflets on German cities.

The phony war ended when Germany invaded Poland and Belgium on May 10, 1940, and subsequently overran France, with devastating consequences for the continent.

The financial markets are in a similar ?Phony War?.

We saw massive gaps up in what I call ?The New World Order? stocks of the financials, health care, commodities, and construction sectors.

Bonds and technology shares were mercilessly dumped in an ?ATM Effect? as investors sold their winners to reinvest in the rotational stocks.

No new money is coming into the stock market right now, and we probably won?t see any until next year.

Over the past two years, some $160 billion has been withdrawn from the stock market and moved into bonds or cash.

Will 2017 bring that money back in to take advantage of the vast expansion of tax cuts and deficit spending headed our way?

That will be the topic furiously debated by strategists in the weeks to come.

I am happy to say that I managed to navigate my readers successfully through the violence and the sturm und drang seen in the market in the aftermath of the November 8th election.

I swear to God, in the wee hours of Wednesday morning I called Mad Options Trader, Matt Buckley, and told him to buy the market when the S&P 500 (SPY) futures in Asia were trading down 800 points.

I knew they would open much higher.

I then spent the rest of the night thinking hard, cogitating, and plotting out a new roadmap for the Trump era. I managed to deliver my conclusions in a hastily put together webinar for followers at 12:00 PM EST on Wednesday.

It was my best attended webinar of the year.

It normally takes me two weeks to prepare a webinar such as that. This one took me three hours.

As soon as the index went positive the next morning, I sold everything I had and went 100% into cash, as I knew technology would quickly get slaughtered.

I sold my Facebook (FB) and short volatility (XIV) positions for a profit, and stopped out of Amazon (AMZN) for a small loss, disbelieving my good fortune. Amazon then collapsed an eye popping $70!

As a result, the long-term performance of my Trade Alert service has elevated to new all time highs almost every day during one of the most dramatic weeks in market history.

As of this morning, our six-year performance stands at 218.12%, giving us an average annual return of 36.35% since inception. We are up 26.21% so far in 2016.

The only way to stay in the business for a half century, as I have, is to be able to turn on a dime as I did last week.

Not many people can arrive at a totally new, groundbreaking investment thesis for the years ahead in a matter of hours.

Big hedge funds and institutions will be holding committee meetings over the consequences of the election for months.

This is why I do what I do.

While the earth is shaking, we still have the coming four days of economic data releases to deal with.

Monday, November 21st at 8:30 AM EST, we get the Chicago Fed National Activity Index, a weighted average of 85 monthly economic indicators.

On Tuesday, November 22nd at 10:00 AM EST we get a new update on the October Existing Home Sales.

On Wednesday, November 23rd we learn the Weekly Jobless Claims at 8:30 AM EST. Because of the national holiday the next day, the report is coming out a day earlier than usual.

Thursday, November 24th, all markets will be closed for Thanksgiving.

On Friday, November 25th, traders will be phoning it in, with only the ?B? team actually showing up for work.

At 9:45 AM EST we get the October PMI Services Flash, a survey of 400 US companies, and 1:00 PM delivers us the Baker Hughes Rig Count. No one will notice.

Keep in mind that virtually all economic indicators will be useless for the next two months, because they will only reflecting spending and investment conditions prior to the November 8th presidential election, and will be for a world that no longer exists.

Will the economy improve, reflecting new optimism of a pro business administration?

Or will it get worse, showing the rise of uncertainty pending a 180-degree change in US economic policies and a massive expansion of the national debt.

I think it depends on where you live.

We shall see.

With that, I?m keeping the letter short today so I can head off to the airport to host my Las Vegas Global Strategy Luncheon and attend the Traders Expo at Caesar?s Palace.

Wish me luck at the tables.

amzn fb tlt spy
John with Horn

Sometimes You Have to Toot Your Own Horn

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/John-with-Horn-e1468781213330.jpg 299 400 DougD https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png DougD2016-11-21 01:07:242016-11-21 01:07:24Market Outlook for the Week of November 21st
DougD

November 18, 2016 - Pro Tips A.M.

MDT Alert

While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points. Read more

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 DougD https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png DougD2016-11-18 09:33:542016-11-18 09:33:54November 18, 2016 - Pro Tips A.M.
DougD

November 18, 2016

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
November 18, 2016
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(NOVEMBER 23RD LIVE GLOBAL STRATEGY WEBINAR),
(REPORT FROM THE FROZEN WASTELANDS OF THE WEST)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 DougD https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png DougD2016-11-18 01:08:262016-11-18 01:08:26November 18, 2016
Mad Hedge Fund Trader

November 18, 2016 - Quote of the Day

Diary, Newsletter, Quote of the Day

?If you can get a dividend higher than the yield on ten-year debt, it?s an opportunity we haven?t seen in our lifetime. On a five-year horizon, investing in large multinationals with high dividends will have a large payday.? said Lawrence Fink, CEO of BlackRock.

girl with money

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/girl-with-money.jpg 263 242 Mad Hedge Fund Trader https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png Mad Hedge Fund Trader2016-11-18 01:05:412016-11-18 01:05:41November 18, 2016 - Quote of the Day
DougD

November 17, 2016 - MDT Alert (FCX)

MDT Alert

While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points.

As you are most likely aware, the metals, along with FCX have been on quite a run since the election.

Having said that, there is no question that they are a bit oversold at this point.

Because of this, I am going to suggest you collect some cash against the FCX position.

My suggestion today is to Sell to Open (1) November 25th - $14 call for every 100 shares you own.

The November 25th - $14 calls can be sold for $.30 per contract.

These are the calls that expire next Friday, after Thanksgiving.

We also gain the benefit of one day premium erosion because the markets will be closed next Thursday.

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 DougD https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png DougD2016-11-17 11:18:212016-11-17 11:18:21November 17, 2016 - MDT Alert (FCX)
DougD

November 17, 2016 - Pro Tips A.M.

MDT Alert

While the Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader focuses on investment over a one week to six-month time frame, Mad Day Trader, provided by Bill Davis, will exploit money-making opportunities over a brief ten minute to three day window. It is ideally suited for day traders, but can also be used by long-term investors to improve market timing for entry and exit points. Read more

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 DougD https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png DougD2016-11-17 09:21:422016-11-17 09:21:42November 17, 2016 - Pro Tips A.M.
DougD

November 17, 2016

Diary, Newsletter, Summary

Global Market Comments
November 17, 2016
Fiat Lux

Featured Trade:
(NEW TAX STRATEGIES FOR A TRUMP WIN),
(TESTIMONIAL)

https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png 0 0 DougD https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png DougD2016-11-17 01:08:162016-11-17 01:08:16November 17, 2016
DougD

New Tax Strategies for a Trump Win

Diary, Newsletter

If you don't want to save yourself a few million dollars in taxes next year, please ignore this article.?

If you do, please read on.

Thanks to Donald Trump's surprise win, the US tax code is about to undergo the biggest change since John F. Kennedy chopped the maximum tax rate of 90% in 1962.

The good new is that there is a lot you can do to minimize your tax bill for 2016, the last year to take place under current law. But you have to take action immediately or at least by December 31.

On rare occasions, changes in tax law are retroactive to the previous year. It is more likely that the new tax rates won?t take effect until 2017, as the changes will be so momentous.

So I got together with my accountant who is extremely prescient on these matters, and has saved me a bundle of money in the past.

The great irony is that most accountants in the country will be attending tax seminars in coming weeks to bone up on tax preparation for the 2016 tax year. Much of what they will be told will be reversed in coming months.

This is going to be one confusing tax year.

I?ll list off the crucial action items:

1) Defer All Income

Taxes are going to fall in 2017, a little for small income earners, and a lot for the wealthy. Any income you can defer into the New Year will get taxed at the new, lower rate, not this year?s higher rate.

The other benefit is that the taxes on 2017 income won?t be due for 16 months, compared to only four months for 2016.

Be sure to dot your i?s and cross your t?s here.

The IRS absolutely hates year-to-year income shifting like this, and they will catch you up at every opportunity. If you have already cashed a check in 2016, the income absolutely CAN?T be moved into 2017.

For those receiving 1099 income, be careful here.

If a check is mailed at the end of December and you don?t receive it until the beginning of January and cash it in January, it will still be counted as 2016 income. That?s because the payer?s 1099 dictates in which tax year the income is reported.

It may be time to have a friendly chat with your payer.

Mismatching Form 1099s and reported income are a major trigger for tax audits (I learned that the hard way).

2) Accelerate All Expenses

Anything that minimizes your 2016 profit to the benefit of your 2017 profit will have the effect of reducing your taxes.

Many overhead expenses, such as utilities' bills and online services, can be paid several months or a year in advance. Renew all those newspaper and magazine subscriptions NOW.

Have a chat with your employees and see if they are willing to accept year end bonuses early. Make sure all of the payment dates are well documented and preserved in case of a future audit.

3) Capital Gains

During the presidential campaign, nothing definitive was said about long term capital gains taxes which now range from 15%-25%.

However, if you were planning to sell stock, your home, or any other investment assets, it might be wise to defer the closing date until January.

That way, if capital gains taxes ARE cut, you will receive an immediate benefit.

4) Carried Interest

Managers and investors in hedge funds have been enormous beneficiaries of the carried interest tax treatment for the past 45 years.

This allows investors in the appropriate tax efficient structures to be taxed at a 15% rate, instead of the 39% or 43% the rest of us pay. Carried interest is considered a principal cause for the rise of the 1%.

From very early in his campaign, Trump promised to get rid of carried interest which he characterized as an unfair advantage enjoyed by hedge fund managers who largely opposed him.

As with everything else Trump has said, no one really knows if he will carry through with this plan.

I doubt even The Donald knows at this point.

5) Obamacare Penalties

We are now in the middle of the enrollment period for Obamacare for 2017 and most other health care plans. Shunning coverage will generate a fine equal to 2.5% of your adjusted gross income.

The repeal of Obamacare is one of the safest bets out there, as it was such a big campaign issue. So if you feel healthy and want to forgo health coverage, you can now do so free of any penalty or guilt.

The cheapest, lowest end health care policies cost $8,000 a year, and have high $8,000 deductibles. That means your medical expenses have to exceed $16,000 a year for you to receive one penny of net benefits.

That buys a hell of a lot of Band-Aids.

As for me, I?m home free, as Medicare kicks in for me on January 1st. That is assuming, of course, that Medicare still exists.

6) Self Employment Tax

Trump has made much of helping small businesses.

The biggest hit these businesses take is the 15.3% self-employment tax. Minimizing net income in 2016 will also have the advantage of moving income into 2017 when it will be exposed to a lower tax rate, or no tax at all.

However, no information on the details of this tax by the new powers that be has been given whatsoever.

One can only hope.

7) Solar Subsidies

With the denial of global warming now official government policy, subsidies to install solar panels or buy electric cars will almost certainly be the first on the chopping block.

These gave buyers a 30% investment tax credit which they could use to offset taxes on earned income or carry over into future years.

Especially hard hit will be taxpayers in the American Southwest who were major buyers of these panels.

The Bottom Line

Keep in mind that all of this is a work in progress, and that this is a fast moving target. Trump knows very little about the workings of the federal government, and I?m sure a crash course is underway.

How much campaign rhetoric gets translated into law remains one of the great unknowns of 2017.

Solar Panel Installation 2

It?s Been Nice! So Long!

John Thomas Solar Panal

https://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/Solar-Panel-Installation-2-e1437414885857.jpg 346 400 DougD https://madhedgefundtrader.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/cropped-mad-hedge-logo-transparent-192x192_f9578834168ba24df3eb53916a12c882.png DougD2016-11-17 01:07:552016-11-17 01:07:55New Tax Strategies for a Trump Win
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There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. MadHedgeFundTrader.com and all individuals affiliated with this site assume no responsibilities for your trading and investment results. The indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features are for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. Information for futures trading observations are obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not warrant its completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the trading observations is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness of the information. You must assess the risk of any trade with your broker and make your own independent decisions regarding any securities mentioned herein. Affiliates of MadHedgeFundTrader.com may have a position or effect transactions in the securities described herein (or options thereon) and/or otherwise employ trading strategies that may be consistent or inconsistent with the provided strategies.

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