When John identifies a strategic exit point, he will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what security to sell, when to sell it, and at what price. Most often, it will be to TAKE PROFITS, but, on rare occasions, it will be to exercise a STOP LOSS at a predetermined price to adhere to strict risk management discipline. Read more
When John identifies a strategic exit point, he will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what security to sell, when to sell it, and at what price. Most often, it will be to TAKE PROFITS, but, on rare occasions, it will be to exercise a STOP LOSS at a predetermined price to adhere to strict risk management discipline. Read more
When John identifies a strategic exit point, he will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what security to sell, when to sell it, and at what price. Most often, it will be to TAKE PROFITS, but, on rare occasions, it will be to exercise a STOP LOSS at a predetermined price to adhere to strict risk management discipline. Read more
When John identifies a strategic exit point, he will send you an alert with specific trade information as to what security to sell, when to sell it, and at what price. Most often, it will be to TAKE PROFITS, but, on rare occasions, it will be to exercise a STOP LOSS at a predetermined price to adhere to strict risk management discipline. Read more
Global Market Comments
June 17, 2022
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(A NEW THEORY OF TESLA,
or WHY I’M RAISING MY TARGET TO $10,000),
(TSLA)
Mad Hedge Biotech and Healthcare Letter
June 16, 2022
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(AN UNDERRATED LONG-TERM BIOPHARMA STOCK)
(OGN), (MRK), (PFE), (VTRS), (ABBV), (JNJ), (AMGN), (RHHBY), (BMY)
Six months into 2022, the markets are still in turmoil while highly valued stocks rapidly fall.
A way to cope with these is to search for safety and security among value-focused investments that are less at risk of sudden declines.
One business that remains profitable and is trading at a relatively affordable price, especially considering its future earnings multiples, is Organon (OGN).
Organon is a spinoff from Merck (MRK). It focuses on women’s health products, existing treatments, and biosimilars. It was launched roughly the same time Pfizer (PFE) launched its spinoff, Viatris (VTRS), in 2021.
While Organon has yet to become a superstar growth stock at the moment, it’s an excellent business to consider for a stable long-term investment.
So far, the company has managed to generate promising gross margins north of 60% and consistently proved to be profitable.
To date, Organon has over 60 treatments in its pipeline.
Thanks to strategic partnerships, Organon has become the biggest pharmaceutical company centered on women’s health.
Not only that, it has an extensive portfolio of biosimilars or biosimulators focusing on cardiovascular, dermatological, and respiratory conditions.
Meanwhile, Organon has one of the highest dividend yields among biopharma companies at 3.47%, with consistent dividend payments of $0.28 per share every quarter.
Organon’s biosimilar growth received a jumpstart from its agreement with Samsung Boepsis in 2013. The deal enables both companies to develop and market a number of biosimilar treatments focused on cancer and immunology.
Under this partnership, Organon has been granted exclusive license to manufacture, test clinically, and market inflammatory treatments like AbbVie’s (ABBV) top-selling Humira, Johnson & Johnson’s (JNJ) blockbuster Remicade, and Amgen’s (AMGN) moneymaking treatment Enbrel, as well as oncology therapies such as Roche’s (RHHBY) promising growth drivers Avastin and Herceptin.
These catapulted Organon as the leader in the fast-expanding healthcare field, where several lucrative drugs will lose their patent exclusivity before 2030.
Riding this momentum, Organon plans to expand its portfolio of biosimilars to cover more therapeutic fields like neuroscience, diabetes, and even ophthalmology.
To boost its portfolio, Organon has been collaborating with Shanghai’s Henlius Biotech to work on more biosimilars.
The Merck spinoff has agreed to pay $73 million upfront in addition to $30 million in milestone payments for the development of Pertuzumab, a biosimilar for Roche’s breast cancer treatment Perjeta, and Denosumab, a biosimilar of Amgen’s osteoporosis drug Prolia. Another Amgen drug, bone cancer treatment Xgeva, is included in the collaboration agreement.
For context, Amgen reported $873 million in sales for Prolia and $545 million for Xgeva in 2021, while Roche raked in $4 billion from Perjeta.
If this partnership works out, Organon and Henlius plan to move forward with a biosimilar to Bristol Myers Squibb’s (BMY) cancer drug Yervoy and its best-selling Opdivo.
While these are all exciting, it may still take some time for the biosimilars to be released to the market. Among them, the Prolia biosimilar has the most apparent timeline, potentially launching the product by 2024.
Although Organon has yet to make a splash in the biopharmaceutical market, the company holds impressive potential. So far this year, the stock has been up 15%—a performance that’s better than the S&P 500 that recorded 4% in losses over the same period.
More than that, its price is heavily discounted these days, offering investors an extra incentive to seize the opportunity to buy shares of this relatively new company in the healthcare sector.
It also has consistent revenue growth and a promising pipeline of diverse candidates with the potential to expand the company’s portfolio.
Taking all these into consideration makes Organon an underrated buy at the moment and a great candidate for long-term investors.
Mad Hedge Bitcoin Letter
June 16, 2022
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(FED SUPPRESSES CRYPTO)
(BTC), (CBDC), (FED)
The unthinkable just happened when the US Central Bank pulled the trigger on a 75-basis point rate rise which highlights the severity of broad financial trouble at the macro level.
This also underscores the need to sell Bitcoin to pay the bills for the median Bitcoin holder whether it be to keep the lights on, fill up the tank, or go to the grocery store.
These issues can’t be downplayed and dismissed anymore as even rich people are suffering from sticker shock as well.
One might believe that the 1,000 plus professional Ivy-league trained economists employed by the Fed might waltz into a supermarket to check out the prices.
Apparently not and what we have is an echo chamber which the group has firmly enshrined as the go-to strategy for our federal bankers.
Unfortunately, the insane price hike we are seeing is really killing cryptocurrencies’ mojo and that is terrible news for this cryptocurrency newsletter.
Crypto prices go up when there is an excess level of capital sloshing around the system due to bursts of overload liquidity like what we saw with fiscal stimulus measures enacted for a once-in-a-century arbitrary lockdown-society situation.
Now that the Federal government is taking away the punch bowl, extreme volatility in the stock market and crypto markets is rearing its ugly head and it doesn’t look pretty.
Sadly, the situation for crypto will get worse.
As the looming recession is brought forward by aggressive rate hikes, it means crypto holders will lose their day job, triggering yet another wave of mass crypto selling.
If they own a house, they will sell it because they won’t be able to afford the mortgage payments without a job.
Even if they are lucky enough to rent out their house, then finding their own place to rent will be impossible.
Rents are primed to explode higher as former homeowners turn into a wave of new renters fighting for the little supply on the market.
This means they will be paying more for shelter in a recession relative to their payments on their old mortgage before the recession.
This doesn’t seem like a great model for ensuring your customers have money to throw at crypto.
Also, these workers who lose their jobs won’t be able to find a new one right away if we are in a deep recession triggered by large rate hikes.
Companies don’t hire in deep recessions because they cut costs.
Making matters worse is that the entire crypto ecosphere is illiquid right now because of systemic risk brought about by panic liquidation from institutions.
The loss of confidence has infiltrated every corner of the crypto industry.
One must be insane to put new money to work which will result in zero dip buyers.
Good luck getting any real spendable dollars out of this mess.
The only ones that will end up net positive are the investors who got in SUPER early, and I mean really early like Bitcoin at 40 cents.
These fortunes earned in crypto can handle a downdraft like this or they have already cashed out long before to ride into the sunset on their horse.
If systemic risk starts to ramp up to unbearable levels, then stakeholders will be forced to beg the government to regulate it to prevent it from happening again - it will be replaced by a central bank digital currency (CBDC), the wildcat banking era of internet money will be effectively over.
The silver lining in the technology is solid.
However, this inflation problem really killed the crypto bubble for those who aren’t rich, and there lies the problem.
It’s never a positive result to bankrupt most of one’s customers whether it be from lower crypto prices, lower stock prices, or a cost-of-living crisis.
Crypto will need to reinvent itself for the next iteration if it plans to go on another epic bull run like we saw in 2021.
“You don’t learn to walk by following rules. You learn by doing and falling over.” – Said British Entrepreneur Richard Branson
