How The Market Will Play Out for the Rest of 2015
Sideways, then up. That is the short version.
Now for the long one.
Markets are caught in a vice right now. It is too late to buy and too soon to sell. So, institutions are sitting on their hands, index charts are doing their best to imitate the topography of Kansas, and the Volatility Index (VIX) is plumbing nine year lows.
The stock market has seen the narrowest range during the first five months this year in a century.
This is anything but an ideal environment for traders. No wonder they are fleeing to the markets for foreign exchange, oil, and even Shanghai!
All of the stock market action, and outperformance, is confined to a handful of names and sectors. Think Apple (AAPL), biotech (IBB), health care (XLV), technology (XLK), and cyber security (HACK).
If you are in these, this year is not so bad. If you aren?t, or are indexing, you better start looking for a new job on Craig?s List.
In the meantime, corporate earnings are continuing their relentless drive upward. Technology and productivity improvements are the main driver.
Zero interest rates and the hangover from the Federal Reserve?s aggressive policy of quantitative easing are willing co conspirators. Some $4 trillion in Treasury notes, bills, and bonds still sit on the Fed?s groaning balance sheet.
And while QE is gone and dead in the US, it continues full speed ahead in Europe, Japan, and China, which account for 35% of the planet?s GDP.
Therefore, the American stocks that look expensive now become fairly priced in three months and a bargain in six months. How far in advance do you want to front run the attractive valuations?
In addition, you have to consider the harsh reality that there is absolutely nothing else to buy. Low yielding bonds at a 30-year peak? Non-yielding gold or commodities? Oil after a ferocious 45% price increase in 11 weeks?
How about collectable French postage stamps? Beanie babies anyone?
The fact is that equities have become the high yield instruments of our day. You can get 2% for the S&P 500, and 4% plus for damaged names like AT&T (T), Altria Group (MO), and Conoco Phillips (COP).
Did I hear 11.40% for Linn Energy (LINN)?
The world is still on a giant paper chase, as it has been for the last six years. The only difference now is that we are shifting from fixed income to equity script.
This is all why I am running a hefty 80% cash position in my model trading portfolio. I would have 100%, but people aren?t paying me to do nothing.
Therefore, I don?t expect to see any more than a 5% mini correction in the markets this summer, or 110 points in the (SPX) and 1,000 points in the Dow Average (which, by the way, broke its 200 day moving average on Friday).
If, by the grace of God, we get an almost forgotten 10% correction, you should jump in and buy stocks with both hands.
Stocks are almost certainly flying to new all times highs going into the end of 2015. I?m looking for at least a $225 print, a gain of 6.6% from here. If you cash out now, you?ll be kicking yourself around the Christmas tree.
