April 7, 2009

1) Today I spoke to my old Morgan Stanley boss , Barton Biggs, who is so bullish that he believes we are only one third to one half of the way through the current stock market rally. Barton, voted best international strategist for seven years, and one of the founding fathers of investment in emerging markets (with some pushing from me), now runs Traxis Partners, a major global macro hedge fund. This earnings season will be a disaster, with forecast S&P 500 earnings at $40-$55 or lower. But hedge funds are still net sellers of assets, according to well placed prime brokers, and most still expect a retest of the lows at 666 in the S&P, or new lows in the 400's. The capacity for the industry to take on new risk is therefore huge. Also encouraging is three consecutive monthly improvements in the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI). He sees this year as a replay of 1938, when a huge rally ensued after a long bear market, with 1938 valuations to boot.

2) This G-20 meeting certainly has been different from past ones, where the collective promises to stimulate the economy amounted to $1 trillion. Obama gave the Queen an IPod. Chinese president Hu Jintao gave Obama a gift made in China, while Obama gave him an American gift made in China. When George Bush first heard the term G-20 he shouted 'Bingo.'

3) The recession has gotten so bad that women in Beverly Hills are resorting to diet and exercise to lose weight. ?

4) There is a great debate raging in the markets right now over the stubborn persistence of the volatility index (VIX) remaining over 40%. Is it still too risky to go back into the market? Are we going to new lows? Is the next big move an updraft or a downdraft? Part of the confusion springs from a misunderstanding of what the VIX is. It is just a mathematical guess about how big the next move in the market will be.?? A 40% VIX implies that one out of three days will see a 2.25% palpitation, and once a month we will suffer a 4.5% gyration. You can have the market drop 10%, rise 11.1%, remaining unchanged, but still generate a tremendously high VIX. The equation doesn't care what the direction is. VIX unfairly picked up a bearish connotation because of the panicked rush by long side only investors to buy downside protection in falling markets, driving put implied volatilities through the roof. This is why investors associate a high VIX with falling markets. In the end, this debate can only be resolved in one way, and that is to the downside. Smart hedge funds are now shorting out of the money calls on VIX. VIX will crash when markets go to sleep, as they inevitably will. Be careful what you wish for. Traders don't pull down million dollar salaries playing 'Solitaire' on their computers.

QUOTE OF THE DAY

'Making money went out the door two years ago. We're just contributing to cash flow now,' said CEO Joe Anfuso of Florsheim Homes, a Stockton area residential home developer.