Industries You Will Never Hear From Me About
Industries You Will Never Hear from Me About.
The focus of this letter is to show people how to make money through investing in fast-growing, highly profitable companies which have stiff, long-term macroeconomic and demographic winds at their backs.
That means I ignore a large part of the US economy, possibly as much as 80%, whose time has passed and are headed for the dustbin of history.
According to the Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics, the seven industries listed below are least likely to generate positive job growth over the next decade.
As most of these stocks are already bombed out, it is way too late to short them. As an investor, you should consider this a “no go” list no matter how low they go. I have added my comments, not all of which should be taken seriously.
1) Realtors - The number of realtors is only down 10% from its 1.3 million peak in 2006. I have always been amazed at how realtors who add so little in value take home so much in fees, still around 6% of the gross sales price. Someone is going to figure out how to break this monopoly. The Internet is begging to destroy this business model.
2) Newspapers - these probably won't exist in five years, as five decades of hurtling technological advances have already shrunk the labor force by 90%. Go online or go away. Good thing I got out in time….40 years ago.
3) Airline employees - This is your worst nightmare of an industry, as management has no idea what interest rates, fuel costs, or the economy will do, which are the largest inputs into their business. Pilots will eventually work for minimum wage, or for free, just to keep their flight hours up.
4) Big telecom - Can you hear me now? Nobody uses landlines anymore, leaving these companies with giant rusting networks that are very costly to maintain. Since cell phone market penetration is 90%, survivors are slugging it out through price competition, cost cutting, and all that annoying advertising. How many Millennials even have land lines? About 30%.
5) State and Local Government - With employment still at levels private industry hasn't seen since the seventies, firing state and municipal workers will be the principal method of balancing ailing budgets. Expect class sizes to soar to 80 or go entirely online, to put out your own damn fires, and keep the 9 mm loaded and the back-door booby trapped for home protection. Anyone who sells to local governments is toast.
6) Installation, Maintenance, and Repair - I have explained to my mechanic that the motor in my new electric car has only eleven moving parts, compared to 1,500 in my old clunker, and this won't be good for business. But he just doesn't get it. Electric cars will soon price internal combustion ones out of the market.
The winding down of our wars in the Middle East is about to dump a million more applicants into this sector. The last refuge of the trained blue-collar worker is about to get cleaned out.
7) Bank Tellers - Since the ATM made its debut in 1968, this profession has been on a long downhill slide. Banks have lost so much money in the financial crisis, they can't afford to hire humans anymore. Thanks to the pandemic half of the big national branch networks have been closed.
It hasn't helped that hundreds of banks have closed during the recession, with many survivors merging to cut costs (read fire more people). Your next bank teller may be a Terminator.
Out With the Old
And in With the New