Have I seen this movie before? Three years ago, analysts were predicting default rates as high as 17% for Junk bonds in the wake of the financial meltdown, taking yields on individual issues up to 25%. Liquidity in the market vaporized, and huge volumes of unsold paper overhung the market. To me, this was an
?2012 will be the third year of living dangerously,? said Ed Yardeni of Yardeni? Research.
Some people will do anything for a good stock tip. Futures magazine, published a complimentary profile about me in their recent issue. The publication is associated with the highly educational and informative annual Hard Asset Conferences in New York, San Francisco, and soon to be Chicago, where I have been a regular keynote speaker and
There is no doubt that the recent jobs data has been absolutely blistering. On January 4, weekly jobless claims plunged by 15,000 to 372,000, well below the 400,000 that is required for a sustainable recovery. The next day, the ADP report delivered a gob smacking 325,000 in job gains for December. Then the big kahuna
Call me a nerd, but instead of spending my Sundays watching the NFC playoffs, I pour over data analyzing the monetary aggregates. This is so I can gain insights into the future performance of assets classes. What I am seeing these days is not just unusual; it?s bizarre. Call it a double reverse, a Hail
?Housing in terms of price has put in a real bottom. I?m not looking for a housing bull market. We are in the second phase of a housing bear market. But the good news is that we can correct the rest of the way back to the long term trend through time, rather than price
After pulling some strings at the Pentagon, I managed to gain access for readers of The Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader to a briefing from General Douglas Fraser. He is a four star Air Force General who is the commander of US Southern Command (SOUTHCOM), one of nine unified Combatant Commands in the
Before I left Chicago, I managed to catch up with my old friend, David Hale, for a cup of tea at the city?s prestigious University Club. I have been using David as my de facto global macro economist for decades, and I never miss an opportunity to get his updated views. The challenge is in
Those who lived through the cataclysmic ?flash crash? that occurred precisely at 2:45 pm EST on May 6, 2010, have been dreading a replay ever since. Their worst nightmares may soon be realized. That is when the Dow Index (INDU) dropped a gob smacking 650 points in minutes, wiping out nearly $1 trillion in market
?I looked all over the basement when I was at the White House, and there is no big lever you can throw to make things good again,? said Austin Goolsby, former chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors.