Author: DougD

So who will win the contest of the century?

The nation is sitting on the edge of its seats and holding its collective breath.

No, I?m not talking about the presidential election, dummy!

I?m referring to the World Series, and whether the Chicago Cubs will break a 108-year losing streak.

Go Cubs!

Welcome to the best trading week of the year.

Yes, historically, the first trading week of November has the highest year-on-year return of any week of the year, based on data going back 70 years.

You know that ?Sell in May and go away? thing? The flipside is ?Buy in November and hold until May? which kicks in tomorrow.

This is the six months of the year that, for the past seven decades, have delivered the ENTIRE positive return for US equity investment.

Except that this time, a certain development which occurred last Friday may turn this precedent upside down.

That would be a new batch of emails.

That?s just what the Clinton campaign DIDN?T want to hear 11 days before the presidential election.

Stocks sold off, but recovered when it was learned that the source was Anthony Weiner, the infamous and disgraced ?sexting? former congressman.

So what are we looking for here? Dirty pictures?

I know for sure that Weiner and his wife are NOWHERE on the security clearance ladder, so it’s highly unlikely that they have anything of consequence.

I doubt it will change a single vote.

After pounding away on the email issue all day, every day for a year, Donald Trump has exhausted the issue. We all have hardened scar tissue on our nerve endings regarding this matter.

A Clinton win is a done deal. At least the stock market thinks so. Notice how the health care and energy sectors got hammered on Friday while the general market selloff was over in minutes.

These politically sensitive, high beta sectors would be rocketing if investors thought The Donald was about to occupy the White House.

Listen to what the stock market is telling you.

Still, all are bracing for the newest revelations about both candidates in the final week before the election.

The Clinton bombshell is now out. What will the next Trump bombshell look like?

Perish the thought.

With the national election decided, look for Californians to focus on local initiatives.

Look for the Golden State to cap drug prices, legalize marijuana, approve massive new school bond issues, permanently raise taxes on the ultra wealthy, add a $2 a pack tax on cigarettes, require condoms for porn stars, introduce a one cent an ounce tax on sodas, allow early parole for non violent offenders, ban the death penalty, require background checks for ammunition purchases, prohibit supermarket plastic bags and approve world peace (I made the last one up).

The state-issued voter guide is a positively wrist breaking 224 pages (I read the whole thing).

With all the excitement of the technology earnings now behind us, the coming week is likely to be more sedentary on the reporting front.

Although no one knows it, we have a Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting this week where they are expected to do exactly nothing. The fireworks aren?t expected to happen until mid December.

And, yikes, we get the Nonfarm Payroll Report on Friday.

Traders will certainly be earning their crust of bread this week.

Monday, October 31st at 9:45 AM EST, we get the Chicago Purchasing Managers Index.

That night, millions of trick or treaters will be canvassing the country foraging for free candy.

On Tuesday, November 1st at 9:00 AM EST we get a new update on the ISM Manufacturing Index. Given last week?s sharp GDP upgrade, the report should be interesting, to say the least.

On Wednesday, November 2nd at 2:00 PM EST, the Federal Reserve announces its interest rate decision. We should also pay careful attention to the EIA Petroleum Status Report, due out at 10:30 AM EST.

Thursday, November 3rd, we learn the PMI Services Index at 9:45 AM EST, following the Weekly Jobless Claims at 8:30 AM.

On Friday, November 4th at 8:30 AM EST we get the October Nonfarm Payroll Report. I am expecting a print around 200,000, but we could run hotter, given the recent GDP report.

1:00 PM delivers us the Baker Hughes Rig Count. Worryingly for oil producers, the trend has been up for the past 17 out of 18 weeks.

Good luck going door to door tonight. You never know who you might run into.

Remembers the billions of dollars that were made by clever hedge funds selling short bond derivatives at the peak of the housing market?

A similar opportunity may be presenting itself.

As electric cars go mainstream, a number of unintended consequences may be triggered.

One big one that no one is thinking about is that a good portion of the global corporate bond market may be demolished.

Some one-quarter of the $14.7 trillion in issues outstanding have been issued by the energy industry.

Fitch, the ratings agency, has just downgraded many of these bonds.

They cite the threat posed by electric cars, which could lead to ?an investor death spiral? in the energy industry.

Let me give you a few simple numbers.

When I bought my first Nissan (NSANY) Leaf 6 ? years ago, the battery cost $1,000 per kWh.

Two years later, Tesla (TSLA) dropped the price to $300/kWh with their sleek Model S.

This year, General Motors (GM) shaved that figure to $125/kWh with their all electric Bolt.

That is an 87.5% cost reduction in only 6 ? years.

The non-subsidized breakeven point for car batteries is widely considered to be around $100/kWh, a mere 20% lower. At that point, electric cars take over the world.

There are only about 1.2 million electric cars on the road today out of a global fleet of 1 billion.

However, worldwide production this year is expected to exceed 500,000 which is equivalent to 2.85% of the total US car market.

Tesla alone is planning to ramp production up from 80,000 vehicles in 2016 to 500,000 by 2020. They are now running at a 100,000-unit per year annual rate.

These are still small numbers. But here is the scary thing about the energy market.

Sometimes it takes only a 1% change in the supply/demand picture to trigger a 50% collapse in prices.

Energy pays no interest or dividend, and is expensive, dangerous, and toxic to store. No one wants to get stuck with excess supply.

Look no further than the contango in the oil futures market, where prices for one-year delivery are 10% more expensive than the front-month futures contract. Oil for immediate delivery is trading at an enormous discount.

Another problem is that all of the world?s strategic petroleum reserves are full, with the US and China holding the largest reserves. Over 200 tankers worldwide are storing crude, awaiting an improvement in prices that may never come.

And then we have the lesson of the past five years, when oil prices crashed by 83.3% from a 2008 peak of $149.50. Bondholders shuddered.

A sudden surge in electric car production could produce a tipping point that brings a cataclysmic decline in oil prices. Automobiles currently account for 50% of US oil consumption.

And what if we then go into another recession? It could make this year?s $25.50 low in Texas tea look spectacularly expensive.

If you have any doubts about the disruptive possibilities of electric cars, go visit the Tesla factory in Fremont, California which I have been doing for five years.

When I first went there in 2011, the assembly line occupied just a small corner of the cavernous 500,000 square foot facility, the site of a former General Motors/Toyota (TM) joint venture. You could almost hear a pin drop.

I went there last week to check on my Model X order and the plant was a beehive of activity. There were multiple assembly lines. Shiny aluminum parts were stacked to the 30-foot ceiling.

Robots silently delivered parts from one side of the factory to the other. A couple of times I almost got run over by emergency repairmen on bicycles rushing to fix some vital part of the process.

You could spend the day listing other unintended consequences of electric cars.

They use 80% fewer parts than conventional cars, so you can kiss the auto parts industry goodbye.

They require no maintenance, so one million car repairmen across the country will lose their jobs.

Self-driving technology will wipe out the auto insurance business, since accidents will rarely happen. It will also cut hospital emergency room visits by half, chopping down health care costs.

The Tesla assembly line uses less than half the workers of equivalent Detroit lines, so the company is a net job destroyer.

Where will all the jobless go?

I could go on and on.

Bottom line: approximately half of the entire US economy will, in some way or another, be dramatically affected by electric cars.

On my way out of the Tesla factory, we passed by the Founders? Wall. This is where the buyers of the first 100 Model S-1?s signed their names with a magic marker, hoping for the best.

After all, we didn?t know if the $110,000 ultra modern vehicle would work.

There was ?JOHN THOMAS? in big bold letters.

I smiled, didn?t say a word, walked out, jumped in my Tesla S-1 and drove home.

I have been debating, arguing, and kibitzing with Harry S. Dent for nearly a decade.

You may know Harry as the cutting edge economic and demographics guru who’s written many books on topics I have reviewed in past years (read more here for ?When the Demographics Tailwind Becomes a Headwind? .

Sometimes I agree with Harry.

Other times, I think he is out of his mind.

But whenever we butt heads, the outcome is always informative and entertaining, if not outrageous.

On Sunday night at 8:00 PM EST, I will be debating Harry live in a global webinar that will be broadcast live in 135 countries.

The event will be moderated by my friend, Greg Owen, in Sydney, Australia. Harry will be opining from Florida, while I?ll be refuting his opinions from San Francisco, California.

Some of the topics covered will include:

1) The likely outcome of the November 8th election and the possible outliers

2) The election impact on your retirement portfolio

3) The true causes of the divide currently afflicting the US

4) How new media enabled Donald Trump to shatter election conventions, and how Hillary Clinton counterattacked

5) The long term outlook for all asset classes

You can attend this fascinating, ground breaking global event for only US $75/AU $97.

Attendance is limited to only the first 1,000. Please click here to purchase a ticket.

It should be a real barnburner of a webinar.