Mad Hedge Biotech and Healthcare Letter
January 10, 2023
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(NEVER TOO LATE TO BE GREAT)
(AMGN), (BMY), (JNJ), (REGN), (GE), (GEHC)
Mad Hedge Biotech and Healthcare Letter
January 10, 2023
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(NEVER TOO LATE TO BE GREAT)
(AMGN), (BMY), (JNJ), (REGN), (GE), (GEHC)
When share prices are falling, it’s definitely tempting to believe that they’ll continue to go lower. It’s as irrational as when investors felt that share prices could only go up, as many thought back in early 2021.
But, the fear of a worsening market and economy is one of the primary reasons why so many high-quality businesses are struggling or are not getting traded at better valuations.
Amid the broader market getting crushed, the healthcare industry held its ground during last year's turbulent period. The Health Care Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLV) only slid by 3.5% in 2022, which isn’t as bad as the 19% drop in the S&P 500.
The great news is that it’s not too late to get into the game. Some healthcare stocks, particularly those in the biopharma segment, still look reasonably priced. In aggregate, the prices of these S&P 500 pharma stocks are at multiples of earnings, approximately 10% below compared to the S&P 500’s about 16 times.
The key reason this sector performed well despite the economic turmoil and financial crises is the continuous demand for its services. Regardless of the situation, people will still have to shell out money for health insurance, medications, and vaccines.
That means profits in the healthcare industry continue to be stable amid challenging times. It also means that with the current financial climate, with skyrocketing inflation and interest rates, this sector holds the potential to shine even brighter.
In fact, the healthcare industry has become a favorite defensive segment. In particular, its Pharma-biotech sector is turning into a stand-out in the market.
Amgen (AMGN) is one company in the pharma-biotech sector that continues to look promising. Based on its performance, a conservative estimate of its compounded EPS growth over the next three years is 6%.
This figure could increase depending on Amgen’s ability to launch new products, which appears to be already on its way with the release of a potential blockbuster courtesy of its obesity drug.
This giant pharma-biotech, with a market capitalization of over $144 billion, also boasts an extensive product portfolio, including several therapies.
Its immunology treatments, marketed as Enbrel and Otezla, along with its bone health drug, Prolia, are only three of the nine products in Amgen’s lineup that are on track to become blockbusters.
For context, a blockbuster is a drug or treatment that can generate a minimum of $1 billion in revenue yearly.
Apart from these treatments, the company has 38 more candidates queued in varying phases of clinical development in its pipeline. The list includes biosimilar competitors for existing megablockbusters—drugs that rake in at least $5 billion in sales annually—such as Johnson & Johnson’s (JNJ) Stelara and Regeneron’s (REGN) Eylea.
Another excellent stock in this segment is Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY). Looking at its trajectory and performance, the company’s compounded annual EPS growth until 2025 is estimated at 13%.
Like Amgen, this number could quickly rise as well as BMY replaces its older products with new and more profitable candidates.
To date, the company has several top-selling drugs in its portfolio, including blood clot treatment Eliquis, which raked in over $9.1 billion in sales in only the first nine months of last year. Within that same time frame, BMY’s cancer drug Opdivo also generated another $6 billion in revenue.
Actually, BMY didn’t record a bad period in 2022, with its shares climbing by more than 15%. Given its track record, the lineup of candidates in clinical development, and its penchant for mergers and expansion via acquisitions, the business is anticipated to keep growing in 2023.
Meanwhile, another healthcare giant was born recently. General Electric (GE) just finalized the spinoff of its healthcare division called GE HealthCare Technologies (GEHC).
With a market capitalization of $25.5 billion, GEHC is coming out swinging. It’s anticipated to slowly become a significant mover in the segment, potentially surpassing Siemens Healthineers (SHL).
It’s understandable to be wary of investing more money considering the turbulent financial and economic situation not only in the United States but also across the globe. However, when you wait too long to buy quality stocks, there’s always the danger of missing out on their inevitable rally.
While these quality healthcare stocks are in no way cheap, they nonetheless hold massive potential and are still reasonably priced for their value.
Mad Hedge Biotech and Healthcare Letter
January 5, 2023
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THIS DISCOUNTED STOCK)
(MDT)
If you have a solid portfolio that rakes in dividend income every few months, you’re in an excellent position to enjoy an early retirement.
Having a dividend income not only means ensuring that you pad your returns and grow your portfolio’s worth over the years but also eases the pressure to look for other revenue streams.
On top of that, if the businesses you’ve put your money in over the years boost their dividend payments, then you’ll also be receiving more recurring income, making it even easier to retire early.
In the biotechnology and healthcare world, the list of dividend stocks that hold outstanding track records in terms of delivering dividend payments regularly includes Medtronic (MDT). This stock can form part of the pillars to build your strong portfolio and is an investment worth considering for those who aim to retire early.
Medtronic qualifies as a dividend aristocrat, recording an impressive 45 consecutive years of payout increases. Unfortunately, shares of this business have not been less impressive lately. In fact, its stock is down 28% thus far.
At first blush, this stock performance looks discouraging. However, there are reasonable explanations behind it. A key factor is that practically half of Medtronic’s profits come from the international market. Taking into consideration the strength of the US dollar against other currencies, Medtronic’s constant-currency revenue should have risen.
Either way, Medtronic has been active in its research and development plans. In 2021, the company spent $2.7 billion on these efforts. As Medtronic sustains its record of clearing more than 200 regulatory approvals in the past 12 months and with the anticipated cooling off of the inflation woes, profitability will likely rebound.
Nonetheless, Medtronic’s consistent payouts make it an attractive buy for dividend growth investors looking for a stock that can serve as an anchor in their portfolio.
Medtronic offers a 3.6% dividend yield, which is more than twice the S&P 500 index of 1.7% yield. If this isn’t enough to entice shareholders to stay, the company is actually on pace to turn into a Dividend King by 2027. For context, a Dividend King is a stock in the S&P 500 that has boosted its dividend every year for at least 50 consecutive years.
Here’s a quick background on Medtronic.
The company is a titan in the medical device sector, boasting a dominant presence in more than 150 countries and generating a total of roughly $31 billion over the past trailing 12 months.
Its impressive array of products covers insulin pumps, pacemakers, and stents, offering treatments for about 70 different health conditions and reaching more than 76 million patients annually.
It has a solid patent base and stellar track record of medical innovation, equipping it with pricing power and practically insulating the company from headwinds that may affect any of its product categories or territory.
Thanks to its extensive and diverse product portfolio, Medtronic is considered the biggest pure-play medical devices company across the world, recording a whopping $104 billion in market capitalization.
All in all, this medical devices giant continues to be one of the most reliable names in the healthcare industry. Its longstanding history of success, continuous innovation, and solid business model all but guarantee that it can sustain its momentum no matter the economic conditions. While some factors have hurt its near-term performance, it’s clear that these setbacks are temporary.
The dip in Medtronic's share price is good news for long-term investors, especially since the company would recover from the setbacks soon enough. The recent bearishness has turned it into an even better buy, as it’s trading at only 15 times future earnings based on estimates.
Mad Hedge Biotech and Healthcare Letter
January 3, 2023
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(A REPRIEVE IN THESE TURBULENT TIMES)
(VRTX), (CRSP)
Following a punishing 2022, it’s reasonable to expect that the situation won’t get any better, especially with a recession hanging over our heads this 2023. Hence, industries widely known to be “resilient,” “stable,” and “durable” will sustain their momentum and continue to gain more investors. Meanwhile, sectors typically associated with “buzzy” updates will struggle to keep their businesses afloat.
That means the best businesses to put your money in are those where people have no other recourse but to spend regardless of the economic situation. With this in mind, investors are projected to load up on healthcare stocks to help them weather the incoming financial storm.
Actually, this has been the trend since the pandemic started, with the Health Care Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLV) only falling by 4.2% in 2022. It’s still good news, especially in light of significant tailwinds, like wars, inflation rates, and political turmoil. Looking at the performance of this sector, it’s evident that people will still seek medical care no matter what. That makes the healthcare sector the ideal combo of a reasonable valuation and defense.
Among the names in this segment, finding a company that performed better than Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX) would be difficult. This business has swum against the tide throughout 2022, with shares climbing amid the struggles of the S&P 500. While Vertex already presented solid fundamentals this year, it could perform even better in 2023.
Vertex’s shares have risen by 32% year to date. In contrast, the S&P 500 has shown a 19% decline. What makes Vertex different from its competitors? Here is the short answer. The company is equipped with the tools to continue delivering impressive financial results in both the short and long terms.
The next couple of years will see Vertex continue to lean on its high-performing lineup of treatments that target cystic fibrosis (CF). This rare genetic condition results in digestive issues and affects the internal organs of patients.
Vertex has a virtual monopoly of this highly lucrative market, being the sole game in town targeting not only CF but the underlying conditions of this rare disease.
Actually, Vertex has been aggressive in expanding its CF franchise. Before 2022 wrapped up, the company submitted its Investigational New Drug application for another CF treatment called VX-522. This is an mRNA-based therapy, which was already cleared by the US Food and Drug Administration.
The CF market has massive potential, which Vertex has yet to explore fully. By 2025, the CF market is estimated to hit a whopping $13.9 billion. Considering that Vertex is the only drugmaker making an impact on this condition, this could translate to an even bigger revenue stream for the company.
Vertex’s lineup of CF treatments has enabled the company to start creating and developing new programs that hold the potential to become blockbusters. Thus far, the company has developed a pipeline of candidates for gene-editing and acute pain treatments.
To date, Vertex and its co-developer, CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP), are awaiting regulatory approval for their one-time gene-editing therapy called Exa-cel. This treatment has the potential to cure two rare genetic blood diseases, namely, sickle cell disease and transfusion-dependent beta-thalassemia. Apart from being able to possibly treat these conditions, the capability of Exa-cel to eliminate the necessity for transfusions makes it incredibly impressive.
Another potential top-selling treatment for Vertex is VX-548, which targets neuropathic and acute pain. This is a non-opioid alternative that the company hopes to offer in an effort to curb the debilitating opioid addiction in the US. VX-548 is slated to undergo Phase 3 trials in the first half of 2023.
Overall, Vertex is an excellent buy for investors looking for a safe and solid stock in the healthcare industry. It has proven itself to be an extremely profitable company over the past decade, and its pipeline of potential treatments queued for clinical trials are indicative of its ability to grow beyond its CF program. Given Vertex’s success over the years, the business potential, and the current price, this company can quickly become a crowd favorite in 2023.
Mad Hedge Biotech and Healthcare Letter
December 29, 2022
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(A PROMISING START TO 2023)
(JNJ), (PFE), (MRNA), (ABMD)
Investors will be grateful to finally leave 2022 behind as the markets weathered a challenging year. For 2023, we can anticipate much of the same, at least in the first six months, which is why it’s crucial to fill your portfolio with high-quality blue-chip stocks.
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) fits this description.
With $469 billion in market capitalization, JNJ is the biggest drugmaker across the globe, easily surpassing its peers by over $100 billion. Its product portfolio is practically unrivaled, with the company catching up in the COVID-19 vaccine race and matching the pace of Pfizer (PFE) and Moderna (MRNA). More importantly, the company has more than a dozen treatments that are on pace to go beyond $1 billion in sales this 2022.
In the third quarter of 2022, JNJ’s revenue climbed by 1.94% year-over-year to reach $23.79 billion, beating Wall Street estimates by $357.93 million. The company also started to spend more on R&D, particularly for the expansion of its medtech sector.
Recently, JNJ closed the deal to acquire Abiomed (ABMD), a leader in the manufacture of heart pump solutions, to boost its medtech segment.
This acquisition is in line with JNJ’s plan to separate its consumer products division from its pharmaceutical and medtech segments. The addition of Abiomed aligns with JNJ’s plan to integrate a smart data approach in the creation and development of new drugs. The company is also looking into leveraging new technology to bolster its medical device division.
After the split is completed, JNJ is projected to become a $60 billion biopharmaceutical entity by 2025. The primary growth drivers would be its major brands and strategic product launches. Meanwhile, the medtech segment is expected to rack up sales as well since its growth will no longer be hampered by the consumer health division, which typically faces litigations.
Specifically, Abiomed will bring its lead product, Impella, to JNJ’s pipeline, which would be an excellent addition to its cardiovascular devices portfolio. This would be a promising revenue stream for the company since the cardiovascular devices market is estimated to climb at a CAGR of 6.9%. It is projected to expand from a market size worth $54.08 billion in 2021 to $86.27 billion by 2028.
As for Impella, this smart implantable pump is anticipated to rake in more than $3.8 billion in revenue by 2031.
The split is a good business decision for JNJ. In the nine months leading to October 2022, pharmaceutical sales were noted to be at their peak at $39.4 billion. JNJ also unveiled more innovative therapeutics in this segment, including CAR-T meds and gene therapies, on top of expanded indications for well-established treatments and investigational drugs.
Some of the treatments poised for potential blockbuster status in 2023 are oncology drugs Darzalex, pulmonary hypertension medication Opsumit, immunology treatment Remicade, and cardiovascular drug Xarelto. The company also submitted multiple myeloma treatment Talquetamab for regulatory approval next year.
Apart from these, JNJ is expected to unveil at least 14 more new treatments that hold a sales potential of over $1 billion each. Meanwhile, half of the candidates are projected to rake in $5 billion or more in sales.
In comparison, the consumer health segment recorded $11.1 billion, indicating a 1.1% slide year over year.
These reports show why the news of the company's split comes as a relief for many of its investors, especially in light of how impressive its pharmaceutical business has been performing as of late. Considering that JNJ is in dire need of evolving while integrating groundbreaking technology, keeping its pharmaceutical and medtech segments tied to its consumer health division would inevitably drag sales down.
Overall, JNJ remains an excellent choice for those looking for high-quality stocks to add to their portfolio. However, it would be advisable to buy after the split. This is because the share price would most likely drop by then, offering us the chance to invest in a company geared towards the medtech and pharmaceutical space.
Mad Hedge Biotech and Healthcare Letter
December 27, 2022
Fiat Lux
Featured Trade:
(AN UNDERRATED YET OVERACHIEVING STOCK)
(PFE), (UNH), (JNJ), (LLY), (ABBV), (BMY), (LEGN), (VRTX), (CRSP)
As we brace ourselves for another uncertain year, large-cap biotechnology and healthcare companies continue to be viewed as attractive options for a defensive play. These businesses offer a chance at insulating some capital from the slippery slope many investors still anticipate in 2023.
That perspective boosted the stock prices of several names in the healthcare industry in 2022. Some of the biggest companies in this sector are up, including UnitedHealth (UNH), Eli Lilly (LLY), and Johnson & Johnson (JNJ). In fact, the Health Care Select Sector SDPR fund (XLV) is only down by 4.6% compared to the S&P 500, which slid by roughly 20%.
With 2022 coming to a close, it’s reasonable to expect the trend to continue next year. Looking at the industry, there are still many names with a lot of room to grow.
One of them is Pfizer (PFE).
Given its performance and plans, Pfizer stands out as one of the best risk-adjusted options to own in this sector. Actually, this stock could give the likes of AbbVie (ABBV) and Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY) a run for their money.
While its minimal gains have not kept pace with other Big Pharma names, Pfizer still easily bested the -14% recorded by the S&P 500. This is because investors remain anxious over the company’s future post-COVID. However, Pfizer has aggressively developed its pipeline and leveraged its COVID-19 profits to create more blockbusters.
One promising project is its migraine franchise, which Pfizer received following its $11.6 billion acquisition of Biohaven. The company estimates $6 billion in peak sales yearly from this program.
Another asset that Pfizer added via acquisitions is ulcerative colitis treatment etrasimod, which the company received following its $6.7 billion deal with Arena Pharmaceuticals. Given the decent-sized market for this condition, the candidate is expected to rake in $1 billion to $2 billion in peak sales.
Multiple myeloma treatment Elranatamab is projected to turn into a blockbuster as well. Although this market is already a bit crowded, with Legend Biotech (LEGN) and Johnson & Johnson leading the charge, Pfizer’s candidate can still attract its own share. So far, Elranatamab is projected to rake in $4 billion in peak sales.
The company is also leveraging its established reputation in the vaccine world. Pfizer’s vaccine candidate for the respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is anticipated to become another blockbuster, with estimated annual sales to reach more than $2 billion.
Aside from these, there are 13 more candidates in the company’s pipeline. All these short-term catalysts are expected to deliver a compounded annual revenue growth rate of roughly 6% from 2020 up until 2025. Notably, this projection does not include the profits from its COVID-19 franchise.
Meanwhile, there are several longer-term catalysts queued in Pfizer’s R&D plans.
One is the expansion of its mRNA vaccine dominance, which is projected to become a $10 billion to $15 billion yearly business in the long run. While sales for its COVID-19 vaccines and boosters are expected to decline, the combination vaccine targeting the flu and COVID-19 could realistically be the primary driving force for this program. Even the shingles vaccine looks promising, with peak sales projected to reach $6 billion by 2030.
Its sickle cell disease program, which Pfizer received via its acquisition of Global Blood Therapeutics, is anticipated to rake in $3 billion in peak sales. If approved, this could go head-to-head against Vertex (VRTX) and CRISPR Therapeutics’ (CRSP) much-awaited candidate.
Overall, Pfizer is an excellent defensive player in this tumultuous period. Its resilience and ability to withstand recessions and bear markets are clearly top-notch. Its core business and pipeline look promising. Plus, despite its strong financial resources and incredible track record, its low valuation makes it an underrated stock with a value notably stronger than the average investor can appreciate.
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