Bullish Signs for 2024

In a fireside chat with some of Amazon’s (AMZN) key lieutenants, CEO of Amazon Andy Jassy ran out of patience.

It’s the end of the line for many.

Critical members of Amazon are still holding onto the rose-colored fantasies of the lockdown era, where workers made their living wearing pajamas all day and took snoozes whenever they wanted.

Not anymore was the message from Jassy.

Enough is enough.

Employees usually don’t have the 30,000-foot view that executives like Jassy have even if they pretend to sometimes.

The paradigm has shifted to the point where management wields all the bargaining power as tech companies trim the fat off their business model.

This spat epitomizes where we are right now in the tech cycle and the wider US economy as a whole.

Tech ($COMPQ) is in a holding pattern where the biggest and best are utilizing a strong balance sheet, but they aren’t doing something so amazing where we chase the hot money with more hot money.

Ironically enough, the US GDP annualized rate just got revised down from 2.4% to 2.1% as spiking interest rates and high inflation eat into growth.

Although companies like Amazon are still doing ok, it’s not to the point where key members of staff can lounge in their sleeping gowns and work one hour per day.

There is resistance from higher management demanding Amazon workers come back to the office.

The deeper underlying message here is that the US economy is still growing buoyantly enough and that signals strength going into 2024 for tech stocks.

There is a better than 50% chance that the US economy won’t enter a recession next calendar year and the tech sector will benefit as it grinds higher.

An important trend I have noticed is that tech shares can absolutely march higher in lockstep with accelerating bond yields.

Many believed this was counterintuitive and I admit, traditional orthodoxy has taught us to respect this inverse correlation.

However, this time-honored belief has come unstuck this year and fighting the Fed has been the tech trade of the year.

What’s next for Amazon?

This is a stark change from February this year when Jassy said he had "no plan" to force workers back.

But now, Jassy reportedly reiterated a rhetoric that has emerged in more recent months: don't comply with return to office, face the consequences.

In July, Amazon employees would be forced into a "voluntary resignation" if they refused to return unless they were one of the rare few who had obtained permission from the company's leadership—internally named the S-team.

Former Twitter CEO Elon Musk was the first tech executives who started this fad by firing 80% of Twitter’s staff when he acquired the company.

That philosophy has really gutted the bottom of the chain in tech companies and shares of tech firms will benefit from this through 2024.

Instead of paying for expensive workers to sit at home, tech management are summoning up shareholder returns in the form of dividends and share buybacks to extend the tech bull market to the end of 2024.

I am still bullish tech stocks moving forward and algos are still programmed to bet on a Fed pivot. Tech goes up until the Fed pivots.